Big Jolly Politics

politics in Harris County and Texas

Senator Joan Huffman-Let the People Vote

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Senator Joan Huffman photo Ralph Barrera-MBO

I wanted to say thank you to Senator Joan Huffman. It is rare elected officials look out for the taxpayers.

Senator Huffman, in an act of open defiance, inserted a provision into her pension reform bill that would require a vote on Mayor Turner’s billion dollar Pension Obligation Bonds (POBs). It must be a good amendment for taxpayers because Turner swiftly denounced the amendment as a poison pill. Turner’s demagoguery was quick and telling, omitting the fact that he carried the original enabling legislation, which created the mess. Did I mention all three Houston Public employee unions endorsed Turner?

Why is Mayor Turner so against a vote? Because he knows that this bond will be defeated at the polls. This one billion dollar bond does not buy one road improvement, hire one more police officer or firefighter, or build one park. All the money goes directly to city employees and their very lucrative Deferred Retirement Option Plan (DROP). This plan, originally supported by Turner when he was a state representative, has caused the unfunded liability totaling 8 to 10 billion dollars. Senator Huffman has the right idea because I fear we have another Dallas on our hands.

All investments need to be carefully scrutinized and the amount and size of every DROP account needs to be disclosed. The Enron-style accounting, lack of transparency, fraud, and misrepresentations associated with the pensions have been staggering.

Thank you Joan Huffman for looking out for the taxpayer!

Kingwood Tea Party Pension Debate

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The Kingwood Tea Party recently hosted a debate between Bill King (against) and Councilmember David Martin (for) on the subject of Mayor Turner’s pension plan scheme. I was curious to see why a “conservative” would support Turner’s scheme to continue to spend money at a level that has sent our city into insolvency. Following the debate, research of Martin’s campaign finance reports led me to understand why he supports Turner on this issue.

Date of Contribution Contributor Contribution
9/26/2012 HPOU  $        2,500
10/22/2012 Baker Botts PAC  $        1,000
10/19/2012 Houston Retired Police PAC  $           500
10/23/2012 Locke Lord  $           500
1/31/2013 Houston Fire Fighter PAC  $        3,000
6/21/2013 HPOU  $        2,500
4/1/2013 HPOU  $        2,500
2/25/2013 Houston Retired Police PAC  $           500
1/24/2013 HPOU  $        2,500
9/11/2013 HPOU  $        2,500
12/12/2013 HPOU  $        2,500
9/11/2013 Houston Retired Police PAC  $           500
8/12/2013 Houston Fire Fighter PAC  $        7,000
10/30/2013 Locke Lord  $           500
9/11/2013 Locke Lord  $           500
10/30/2013 Seafarers Intl Union  $           250
3/4/2014 Baker Botts PAC  $        1,000
11/30/2015 Seafarers Intl Union  $           250
5/11/2016 HPOU  $        2,500
5/11/2016 Plumbers PAC  $           500
5/11/2016 Locke Lord  $           500
5/11/2016 Houston Retired Police PAC  $           500
11/15/2016 HPOU  $        2,500
                                                              TOTAL  $      37,000

Nothing I heard during this debate changed my belief that the best and most fiscally conservative way to solve Houston’s pension problems is to file for bankruptcy and dissolve the city. The County does a much better job at running local government and they steal less.

The most disturbing new revelation is that the four actuaries hired to work on the Turner scheme have entered into a non-disclosure agreement (NDA). Say what? Yes, you read that right. Even though the taxpayers are responsible for the city’s poor financial decisions, you are not permitted to learn about the methodology behind the scheme. With that decision, you can be certain that the deal is going to be bad – really bad.

A previous City actuary Towers Perrin, predecessor to Towers Watson, provided actuarial services to the City of Houston for the original mess. The ridiculous numbers got us to this place and Towers was ultimately sued by the City of Houston for their fraudulent methodology. Towers was off by billions of dollars. This was not the only new revelation that came out during the debate.

The person drafting Turner’s bill is uber-liberal “Republican” Dan Flynn, a Straus henchman from Van, Texas. Flynn, House Pension Chair, reportedly drafted a 150 page bill for his union friends that promises to burn a huge hole in the pockets of every property taxpayer in Houston. The City has distributed the proposed legislation to the Greater Houston Partnership and the Arnold Foundation; but, you, the taxpayer, aren’t good enough to see it. Bill King made an open records request to the city, which was sent to Ken Paxton to delay release of the information. There is not a siren loud enough to alert taxpayers to these shenanigans.

As a state representative, Turner carried much of the union legislation; so, in reality, he is trying to “fix” his own mess. Turner along with Senators John Whitmire and Mario Gallegos (deceased) drafted and sponsored the chaos now being inflicted on the city’s finances. It should be noted that Gallegos was a city firefighter, so his support was self-help.

Turner’s conflicts include receiving political endorsements and contributions from these unions as a state representative and (three-time) mayoral candidate. Whitmire has actually served as an administrator of one of the unions. The conflicts, self-dealing, and corruption are fundamentally grotesque.

Now if the actuaries won’t tell you how they got their numbers and the politicians won’t let you see how this scheme is to be implemented, it is time for bankruptcy and dissolution. Our city government has failed.

Readers need to know that David Martin admitted during the debate that he has seen neither (1) the actuarial figures nor (2) Flynn’s bill. Yet, Martin defended Turner’s plan until the end.

This legislative session, the city is frantically attempting to add a 30 billion dollar mortgage onto the already heavy backs of Houston taxpayers. Thankfully, Senator Paul Bettencourt, the Tax Man, is trying to come to the rescue. Uncle Paul has sponsored a bill that would require a vote on the pension bonds that belong to Turner’s scheme.

Martin completely rebuffed Senator Bettencourt’s efforts, claiming that the Tax Man was meddling in the city’s affairs. So, I guess it is okay for senators who favor Turner’s plan to “meddle” but conservatives need to stay home and sit on their hands. Martin wants the taxpayers, including his constituents, to sit down and shut up.

I did speak with Senator Bettencourt who wanted me to quote him. Paul said, “It is frightening that the City of Houston is hiding the actuarial numbers and legislation. If the numbers worked, there would not be a need to hide them.” I concur.

I have linked the debate here for your own viewing pleasure-special thank you to Windi Grimes for making this available and recording the event!

Now, let’s discuss the debate. Before I do, I wish to thank the Kingwood Tea Party for hosting this event along with James Quintero, Director of the Center for Local Governance at the Texas Public Policy Foundation, for moderating the event, and a shout out to Windi Grimes for the use of the video. Since none of the participants had seen the numbers, the debate was highly philosophical and was really more of a discussion on policy.

Martin made a historical argument – the city previously issued pension obligation bonds or POBs without voter approval so the same practice should be a-okay now. The record should reflect that the city has never simultaneously issued a billion dollars’ worth of bonds.

Voters need to really think about this situation. Turner, et al. are dead set on issuing the largest bond ever NOT to repair or build one street, road, water or sewer treatment plant, or library. Every dime will go to the bank accounts of city employees.

Let’s analyze this for a minute. The unions – the same unions who hate investments because they do not like defined contribution plans – want a billion dollars for investments. The thought or idea that unions think investments are risky is blown out of the water by this request. So, the next time you hear a union rube tell you that defined contributions are risky because investments are risky, you should ask why they are demanding a billion dollars for investments. This concept is seemingly above Martin’s head, even though he is a financial executive.

Martin really does not like Senator Bettencourt’s proposed legislation (SB151), which demands a public vote by taxpayers. Martin kept stressing that the Teacher Retirement System of Texas (TRS) is an underfunded state pension. Senator Bettencourt and Bill King have repeatedly denounced the TRS financial problem. Martin somehow thought this argument would make it okay to hamstring city taxpayers because the TRS is underfunded. Faulty logic indeed.

King brought up the need for a public vote by city taxpayers; but, Martin was adamant that a vote is unnecessary and the time is insufficient. King responded that the city is already planning to put a revenue cap on the November ballot. Think about that for a second. Martin is telling his constituents that the time is insufficient to put the POBs on the November ballot; yet, the city is putting the revenue cap on the November ballot.

Make no mistake, this is the largest ‘kick the can down the road’ pension deal ever attempted by a Houston mayor. The fact the actuaries will not release their numbers combined with Chairman Flynn’s bill being hidden from Houston voters should cause all voters to sit up and pay attention. When you see Martin, a supposed conservative, arguing that a vote is unnecessary for the POBs but necessary for the revenue cap is the argument for bankruptcy itself. Are the cats sleeping with the dogs or is this something more?

Simpson’s Inability to Unite the Party

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Will a #NeverTrumper be able to lead the Harris County Republican Party to victory in 2018? Paul Simpson has kicked off the new year with a series of meetings to try to justify his losing campaign of 2016. Simpson and his team met separately with bloggers, including David Jennings and me, candidates, and judges and he is now on a road show to explain his losing 2016 campaign. Simpson has a lot of data to go with his talking points as to why Harris County Republicans did so poorly. This is my review of Simpson & Co.’s efforts in the 2016 election cycle.

Simpson and his consultant, Kevin Shuvalov, prioritized voter turnout in HD 134, home to Sarah Davis. The re-election of Sarah Davis, the self-identified pro-choice “Republican” was a priority to Joe Straus as Davis carried all of Planned Parenthood’s bills last session.

In the 2016 election, Texas Right to Life specifically targeted and campaigned against two Harris County “Republicans”: Sarah Davis and Devon Anderson. By now, you know that Anderson prosecuted pro-life heroes David Daleiden and Sandra Merritt for their brave videos that unveiled Planned Parenthood’s misdeeds. It should be noted that Davis endorsed Anderson.

Davis’s district is one of the most liberal Republican leaning house districts in Texas. When Anderson, in a last ditch effort to defeat her opponent, claimed that her opponent would be a weaker district attorney because of her sexual orientation, I know that Davis had to think twice about her endorsement.

Davis and the Harris County Republican Party were aided by Kevin Shuvalov, a political consultant who also does work for Straus. A very rudimentary knowledge of HD 134 and Harris County would have told you turning out the vote in the most liberal house district would not be helpful to countywide Republicans, it was not. It did help Sarah Davis.

At the outset, it was clear that Harris County Republicans would have an uphill battle. Given Ted Cruz’s posture, many of his supporters were #NeverTrumpers. Instead of using the momentum of conservative victories such as the defeat of the so-called equal rights ordinance, Simpson and the gang harnessed the #NeverTrump movement and explicitly directed voters to not worry about the top of the ticket but make sure that they vote for our judicial candidates. This approach was flawed in many ways.

First, Simpson never made a compelling argument for a Republican judiciary. Why are Republicans better on the bench? Second, by running a #NeverTrump campaign, Simpson failed to get Trump supporters to the polls.

Simpson is now claiming that two factors led to the downfall of Harris County Republicans: (1) Donald Trump and (2) Devon Anderson. Anderson’s horrendous decision to jail a rape victim and indict pro-life activists certainly did not help the Harris County Republican effort in 2016. Whether you agree or disagree with Anderson’s positions, the real damage was the endless fodder for campaign commercials that she provided to her opponent. Judging Anderson by her record, she was a failed district attorney and had to go.

Unbelievably, Anderson’s campaign made a succession of errors. First, she made this video immediately after Channel 2 broke the story on Jenny, the jailed sexual assault survivor. Then, it was revealed that another survivor and a witness were jailed in order to compel their testimony. The Anderson campaign, while criticizing her opponent for “using” Jenny, deployed Jenny’s father as a campaign tool to say that he supported the jailing of his vulnerable child by the Harris County District Attorney’s Office.

You cannot encourage people to vote straight ticket with a problematic candidate like Devon Anderson on the ballot. In the past, problematic candidates have been removed from the ballot to avoid a disaster like we saw in 2016. The party ballot is as good as its weakest candidate and this was true with Anderson.

Paul Simpson’s belief that moderate, establishment Republicans could win elections in Harris County without social and fiscal conservatives is a false narrative. The biggest mistake in the campaign was to not utilize our most recognized successful brands. There are three brands that have been out for over twenty years: Conservative Republicans of Harris County (Hotze), the Link Letter (Lowry), and the Texas Conservative Review (Polland). Voters are conditioned to these brands in primary and general elections.

All three brands focus on different turnout. Hotze messages to seniors in a mail-in ballot program. Hotze’s brand is very effective and seniors expect to get his piece in the mail the way they have for over twenty-four years. Lowry’s Link Letter focuses on early voters and systematically sends the Link Letter out to well-conditioned voters. Both Hotze and Lowry have an identifiable social conservative voting base. Polland is different and I will come back to that in a minute; however, the sophistication of these so-called slates is unique.

Branding is important and Hotze and Lowry understand that social conservatives are reliable voters. The social conservatives can sway primary votes and this is where their influence has been most visible. Simpson and company have underestimated these brands in general elections and actively worked against them. The 2016 election proved this point.

Gary Polland and the Texas Conservative Review focus on election day voters. Gary’s brand is a reflection of him and is the most moderate of the three brands. Gary’s brand is influential in general elections and has a conservative Jewish following. Watching what Barack Obama did to Israel on his way out the door gives us an excellent opportunity to expand our base in Harris County. Gary is Jewish in case you did not know. All three of these brands work well together in general elections.

Simpson does not want to recognize the importance of these assets. Donald Trump certainly knew that he needed social conservatives to win the Presidency just as Simpson needs social conservatives to win Harris County. I have asked Simpson more than once what his plan is to unite the local party. He does not have one. This will not sit well with Republican candidates on the 2018 ballot. Simpson may have been a transitory candidate and the efforts to replace him are well underway. The question is will he be replaced by a candidate who can reach out to all factions within the local party. This will not be an easy task.

David Jennings analysis

Tidying up the 2016 Harris County Republican election disaster

Harris County Republican Party disaster continued…last one!

Never Bet Against Trump

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MOON TOWNSHIP, PA - JUNE 11: Republican candidate for President Donald Trump arrives in his plane to speak to supporters at a rally at Atlantic Aviation on June 11, 2016 in Moon Township, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)

This was the most interesting election of my lifetime. One hundred years from now scholars and political pundits will be writing and talking about this particular Presidential election. Donald J. Trump was not only a most unusual candidate, he also had an uncanny ability to read the electorate. You see the left completely imploding and many on the center or moderate right still in bewilderment that someone could be elected without their money or help. I would make the argument that the fact that Trump’s campaign repudiated the establishment was the reason he succeeded. Two years ago, we had an election in Harris County in which establishment Republicans led by Paul Simpson wrestled control of the Harris County Republican Party from social conservatives. Simpson’s election two years ago had a direct impact on Trump’s race in Harris County, which resulted in the largest defeat of the modern Harris County Republican Party. I wanted to look at the presidential race in Harris County because the establishment Republicans who fund and support Paul Simpson did not want Trump to succeed.

I started looking at the canvass and made a few calls. I always check in with Ed Johnson (PCT 440) because technically Ed knows how to move the needle in his precinct. I, of course, had a theory that the #NeverTrumper precinct chairs did worse than those that supported him.

Looking at Ed Johnson’s precinct, a DJT supporter, you can see a result that differed from the overall county result. Ed supported DJT and his results reflected his desire to support him. Ed has always run the numbers for the Harris County Republican Party and we have known each other for more years than either of us are willing to admit. Ed’s resources are very different as a precinct chair. Ed has the ability to track who has and has not voted in his precinct and can use an auto-dialer to call those who haven’t voted. Ed’s software is very sophisticated. Understand that he has lived in the same home for many years and knows many of his voters through school, church, community, and political activities. Let’s look at what he did for DJT in his precinct.ed-johnson

Now, look at Joe Pelati’s precinct. I do not know whether Joe supported DJT or not but it is a different result than Ed’s precinct. Here is someone without the resources of Ed Johnson to message or communicate with his voters in the way Ed does. I know both of these gentlemen and use them as examples because of their involvement in the Harris County Republican Party and the proximity of their precincts.  Obviously, Ed Johnson’s messaging in his joseph-pelatiprecinct made an impact on the results for DJT. These are “close in” Westside Republican precincts and what I consider to be the heart of where I look for Republican election results. You can tell what is going to happen to Republican voting in Harris County by watching this area.

Let’s look a little further west in Katy. Another party activist and someone engaged in local party politics is Kelly Horsley. Again, Kelly’s GOTV ability is nowhere near Ed’s; but, I do think it is interesting to look at her precinct. Keep in mind that Kelly’s neighborhood is much newer than Ed’s and I suspect that her longevity of knowing her neighbors is vastly different. Although she lives in a Westside Republican stronghold, the results are vastly different than Ed’s precinct. I do want to know if Kelly actively campaigned for Trump or towed Simpson’s party line and chose to not mention Trump and focus on down ballot candidates.kelly-horsley

So, let’s look at some more precincts.

The workhorses of the Republican Party are our women’s clubs. We have had some amazing Republican women involved with the Harris County Republican Party. Judith Jones used to have the highest turnout of any precinct in the City of Houston – precinct 289. There were others: Pat McCall, Louise Wing, and, of course, Ann Lee. These women ran their precincts and delivered votes. They met, traded strategies, and competed with each other on voter turnout. They were friends and competitors during a time when the Democrats controlled everything. They turned our county red and kept it that way for years and few know their names. The history of turning our county red is a history every precinct chair should know.

The Harris County Republican Party did not do anything without consulting these women first ann-lee– the party’s version of local control. Every politician in the state darkened their doorsteps. It is an anachronism of times past. The local community-oriented precinct structure was a successful model for years. I say all this because, of course, in a sea of blue, Ann Lee won her precinct for Trump. Ann Lee’s precinct is just west of Meyerland by the Jewish Community Center and dominated by Clinton precincts on all sides. Ann Lee was a strong Trump supporter and a convention delegate. We sit next to each other at the Downtown Pachyderm and never do I fail to learn something from her and her great spirit.

Republicans must win the power hook to be successful in Harris County. This hook includes Sarah Davis’s Texas House District 134 and a large Jewish enclave located in Meyerland. Conservative Jewish voters are reliable Republican voters in national elections. Democrats mary-jane-smithhave become increasingly hostile to Israel and the country’s political leaders. Conversely, Evangelicals and the Christian right fight to protect Israel. Let’s take a look at the power hook and see what happened to some precincts headed by local party activists. Not surprisingly, Mary Jane Smith lost her precinct to Clinton. My guess is that MJS worked against Trump. The residents of Mary Jane Smith’s precinct can tell you what her message was for Trump. Experience has told me not to listen to her.

I also looked at precinct 133 led by precinct chair Kent Adams aka Mr. Sarah Davis. Kent’s precinct overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton and, I suspect, voted for Sarah. I imagine that Kent failed to support Trump believing that this would help his wife’s campaign. I think that it is important to note that Kent supported Devon Anderson’s campaign and Sarah endorsed and promoted Devon Anderson. Ironically, the Andersons supported Ann Johnson, Sarah’s 2012 uber-liberal general election opponent. I am sure that I will get an explanation someday.kent-adams

Republicans were crushed in the hook. Another #NeverTrumper in this area is Precinct Chair David Gratvol. Although David’s precinct is a little east of what I consider the hook, I am throwing his precinct in here because he is a big Sarah Davis and Paul Simpson supporter. Also, when the Access Hollywood tape was released, David bet me that Trump would go down in defeat. Had I lost this bet, David would have been eating at Tony’s on my dime.david-gratvol-1

Paul Simpson and the consultant advising him, Kevin Shuvalov, made a tactical decision to run against the President-Elect. Both men did this believing the polls showing that Trump would hurt the down ballot races in Harris County. They treated the entire county as a microcosm of HD 134 – Sarah Davis’s House District. The truth is that the entire county is not reflective of HD 134. Senate District 7, parts of West Houston, Kingwood, and the Clear Lake area voted Trump. The party messaging left little reason for social conservatives to come to the polls and vote down-ballot.

I believe there are a lot of reasons for this failure and the precinct chairs had little or nothing to do with the messaging decisions of the county party. These decisions were made by Simpson, Shuvalov, and their establishment financiers who did not like Trump. The establishment financiers like Norm Adams and Dick Weekley oppose Trump’s strong stand on illegal immigration because they need cheap illegal labor to operate their businesses.

Certainly, Ted Cruz and Devon Anderson were problematic to the local election results too. I do think that many precincts were winnable; but, Simpson’s messaging killed the party and down-ballot races. Understand these are my conclusions following a cursory review of the canvass and I write this for discussion purposes. We can have a well-funded party lacking principals or a principled party with few funds. It worked for Trump!

I have added some other precinct results I found interesting.

robert-hall meg-weekley john-baucum greg-aydt fred-blanton elizabeth-ingersoll david-jennings dave-smith charlotte-blakemore angelina-gooden

David Temple Granted New Trial!

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Harris County prosecutor Kelly Siegler gestures towards defendant David Temple during his 2007 murder trial in this Chronicle file photo.
Harris County prosecutor Kelly Siegler gestures towards defendant David Temple during his 2007 murder trial in this Chronicle file photo.

On Wednesday, the Texas Court of Criminal Appeals granted David Temple a new trial. If you follow Big Jolly at all, you would know that Kelly Siegler has been the focus of more than one story regarding prosecutorial misconduct. This particular trial involved a Katy football coach convicted of murdering his wife in a cold case that led to Kelly Siegler’s now defunct television show, Cold Justice. Siegler ran against Pat Lykos in the 2008 Republican Primary to replace Chuck Rosenthal, the former Harris County District Attorney who was forced to resign in disgrace. The timing of this decision signals that the Court of Criminal Appeals wanted to rule before the new judges took office. See Mary Lou Keel.

mary-lou-keel

 

Devon’s Last Gasp

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On Thursday, Commissioner Steve Radack came to the Downtown Pachyderm to deliver the “vote straight Republican” message. Steve announced that all Republican slates are supporting straight ticket voting. Commissioner Radack went on a rant about bloggers who were supportive of Democratic candidates. Steve brought his trusty sidekick Jack O’Connor, the least articulate man in America, with him to the meeting.

Steve’s appearance was timed exactly one hour before Rusty Hardin’s press conference concerning Jenny, one of the jailed sexual assault survivors. At his press conference, Hardin claimed to represent Nick Socias, the prosecutor who jailed Jenny. The problem with that statement is that Hardin is not the attorney of record.

The purpose of Rusty’s press conference is clear – a Hail Mary for his friends in the Anderson administration. Unfortunately for Socias, he does not see that he is being sacrificed. His supervisors, likely the same people who authorized the writ of attachment, are the true offenders.socioshardin

The only question is how high up the totem poll did the decision go? My bet is Craig Goodhart. You may remember his name from the prosecutorial misconduct allegations in the Linda Carty case. Or the David Temple case. Interestingly, Devon Anderson denied any collusion between Hardin and her campaign on the issue. It just so happened that Anderson released a videotaped statement strikingly similar to Hardin’s press conference the night before Hardin’s presser using the exact same emails.

Hardin was not the only high profile attorney chiming in on the election. Randy Schaffer also released a letter asking for Anderson’s resignation. It should be noted that Randy Schaffer practices law with his son Josh Schaffer, the Planned Parenthood lawyer, I call it the Et tu, Brute? letter. Think about that, the Planned Parenthood lawyers are asking Devon to resign.

hotzewoodfillLet’s get back to Commissioner Radack. His little buddy Jack O’Connor asked a prepared question about why so-called Republican bloggers (i.e., Big Jolly) are supporting Kim Ogg for District Attorney. O’Connor bolstered his argument by pointing out the fact that Charles Kuffner, a local Democrat and blogger, never attacks his own.

Radack was very careful with his words. He made no excuses for Devon’s bad behavior, which includes jailing rape victims; charging pro-life activists for investigating Planned Parenthood; allowing a grand jury to no bill Doug Karpen, a notorious abortionist whose own employees came forward to say he was murdering children after they were born; covering up misconduct by an HPD homicide investigator; and failing to notify defendants of evidentiary problems. Steve Radack did not defend Anderson’s record. Nor did Steve ever point out that Texas Right to Life sent out a mailer encouraging the pro-life community not to vote for Devon Anderson or Sarah Davis. Steve’s message was simple: vote “straight” R. I am sure that Commissioner Radack’s message was not coordinated by Devon Anderson either. I wonder what Allen Blakemore has been up to the last few days.

Meanwhile, when I got home, I had several slate mailers encouraging me to vote a “straight” R ticket. The Hoopers were first in line to vote on Monday morning; so any good campaign should delete us from their mailing list. Alas, the mail has continued. The one piece that got my attention was from Steve Hotze and Jared Woodfill. They may want to be more careful in the candidate review process if they want a “straight” R ticket.