Big Jolly Politics

politics in Harris County and Texas

Commissioner Ramsey’s Town Hall on Crime was a Success

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Last night Commissioner Ramsey hosted a town hall on crime at the Bayland Community Center. Commissioner Ramsey, Constables Heap and Herman, Councilman Pollard, Reverend Willy Davis, and Andy Kahn were speakers at the event, and the district attorney’s office sent a representative. The event was a success and reinforces the belief that crime is a bipartisan issue and that the bond-to-murder judges up in 2022 are vulnerable.

One theme that was present throughout the event is that we cannot let Covid be an excuse for crime. The crime rate was rising before Covid, and Constable Heap noted that initially crimes against property dropped when the Covid changes occurred the property crime rate has rebounded. We also have the sharp increase in crimes against the person highlighted by the worsening bond-to-murder spree in the County.

Law Enforcement Perspective

Both Constables had similar sentiments regarding why we have a crime issue and the difficulties in overcoming the current crime issues in the county. They noted that law enforcement is one aspect of addressing the crime issue, but that it needs to be intertwined with governmental action and religious involvement to have a complete crime fighting package. They also noted some issues specific with the law enforcement aspect of addressing the crime situation.

Difficulty in recruiting and retaining individuals for law enforcement is something both Constables touched upon. Constable Heap indicated increasing difficulty with finding individuals who saw law enforcement as a vocation to help the community. Constable Herman noted the change from the past where criminals now are more prone to run from and/or assault law enforcement and gave an example of losing employees because the employees didn’t want to deal with being assaulted. He suggested that the media’s demonization of law enforcement officers is causing some of this problem.

Both Constables agreed that community policing and building better relationships with the community are necessary to make law enforcement better. Constable Hermann pointed out how the community makes the job easier or more difficult. Constable Heap raised concern regarding the future and who from the next generation was going to be ready, willing, and able to lead departments. They also noted that the use of force policy has been reworked to try and deescalate situations.

Another interesting aspect of the Constables’ presentation was agreement on the need for better technology. The use of technology is one way to offset the current understaffed law enforcement departments, and also is an easy to communicate with individuals. Constable Heap noted that a drone could search a 10 acre field in 15 minutes, while boots on the ground would take 12-15 officers 90 minutes to do the same search. Constable Herman pointed out a new app that was developed to give information.

Concerned Citizens Perspective

Andy Kahn and Reverend Davis spoke from a citizen’s standpoint. Regular readers here have already heard everything Andy Kahn had to say, so I’m not going to repeat most of what he said. However, he did make some good, new, points in talking about how the Wall Street Journal ranked Houston as more dangerous than Chicago, and pointing out that the crime problem is similar to the crime problem in the late 80s and early 90s when prison overcrowding was an issue.

Reverend Davis had some interesting insight to give regarding the current crime situation. He opened his comments noting his long history with Houston and how he’s disgusted with the way local government isn’t responding to curtail crime. He noted that when he ran for office let’s keep Houston safe was one of his campaign themes.

Reverend Davis pointed out how crime negatively impacts the community, and used his four years in Chicago as a comparison and contrast point. He noted that crime follows prosperity. This was a little bit of a confusing statement, so after the event was over I asked him what he meant, and he indicated that the sentiment was criminals go to where the money is located.

He also pointed out that crime leads to segregated communities. Crime goes to prosperity, and prosperity flees the crime leading to self segregation. Although he’s a government official Edward Pollard had a great point along these lines in that crime is the result of a lack of opportunity, guidance, and a lack of respect for others.

Governmental Perspective

Commissioner Ramsey and Councilman Pollard gave a governmental perspective. Commissioner Ramsey organized the event, so spent most of his time with welcoming remarks and introductions. However, as noted at the beginning of the post, he indicated we cannot let Covid be an excuse for crime, and that the current crime spree is unacceptable. He noted the ongoing judicial aspect of the crisis, and also the potential release of more felons and stated we have other options than release.

Councilman Pollard has established his District J Patrol as one method to try and combat crime. He indicated that the lack of law enforcement personnel is a problem to addressing crime since the higher seriousness crimes get the immediate attention of Houston Police Department. This prioritization is understandable, but it is a reactionary approach, and the District J Patrol is an attempt to be proactive and to address issues that HPD does not prioritize because of the manpower shortage. This attempt seems to be well received by all the speakers.

The District Attorney’s office also sent a representative. He indicated that the District Attoreny’s office shares frustration with the current state of crime. He also pointed out that the District Attorney’s office has to have an individual evaluation on every case, and that law enforcement has to refer cases over the District Attorney’s to initiate activity.

What Can Be Done

A town hall listening session is great if it actually leads to action and addresses the problem at hand. Councilman Pollard deserves credit for establishing his district J patrol, and time will tell if the measure helps reduce crime in the district. It is a good example of his desire not to defund the police, but to reallocate funding to better use.

The town hall had good value in exposing areas of opportunity to address crime. With the District Attorney’s office needing a referral to begin criminal proceedings, and HPD not having the manpower to investigate less serious crime a distinct void exists regarding bringing criminals to justice. One way to bypass this is to create a task force between local law enforcement agencies.

If an individual has evidence of a crime that HPD cannot get to then the task force can take the evidence and present it to the District Attorney’s office. The task force also should include some select individuals in the District Attoreny’s office that are assigned to the task force so that they can readily assess the evidence presented and decide whether or not to issue an information or accept the matter for presentation to the grand jury. This could be further refined by soliciting pro bono attorney work to do an initial review of evidence to cull any cases that on the face do not seem like a crime has occurred.

Another area of opportunity is for each City Council district, and/or at large positions replicate the district J patrol. Although not enough time has passed to assess whether the idea will have an impact on overall crime rates at the very least it is a vehicle to address low level crime that HPD will not address. The district patrols can address issues like junk or inoperable vehicles, graffiti, and other open and obvious criminal violations that HPD cannot address.

Addressing economic opportunity is quite the challenge with the Covid impacts still ongoing, but other underlying fundamentals can be addressed either within existing programs or in a self funding manner. A pride in Houston campaign needs to be initiated. An easy way to initiate this concept is to promote the Harris County Sherriff’s Office graffiti removal program. The program already exists, but it’s not well publicized. If Mayor Turner can keep putting out radio spots and social media advertisements for mask up he can do the same for graffiti removal. It’s just a matter of priorities.

In order to address a lack of respect for individuals the various City Councils and the Commissioner’s Court could also make a point to crack down on existing issues that show a blatant disregard for others. Handicap parking violations and passing stopped school busses are two easy opportunities that would have broad public support.

Starting with handicap parking violations, other cities already have programs in place where individuals (or store employees) can take date and timed stamped pictures of violators and send them in for enforcement. We just need to replicate the programs locally. As an added advantage the program would be self funding from the revenue generated so it imposes no burden on the City/County budget.

Passing a stopped school bus is a similar framework. Simply install dash cameras on the school busses that activate when the flashing red lights activate, and shut off when the lights stop blinking. This will lead to safer roads for children entering and exiting the school bus, and the revenue generated from the citations will fund the program. Acting on both handicap parking violations and inappropriate school bus passing sets a tone that we have to respect the most vulnerable in society and imposes a degree of order where law and order is not found.

It is good to see crime being addressed in such a comprehensive manner. Hopefully Commissioner Ramsey has set in motion actions that will lead to a comprehensive crime reduction plan. We know we have to address the bad judges at the ballot box in 2022. However, crime is a bipartisan issue and we need to act now in the areas of common ground to address the problems we can before 2022.

Different Visions for the Future

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The chatter of what attributes will make a good chair show that the party is as divided as ever locally. Tonight’s HCRP vote for a new chair leaves the county party at a distinct crossroads.    Regardless of who prevails tonight the party has to make a decision on how to proceed.

County Voting Blocks and Pathways Forward

The pathways forward all, to some degree, involve how to build coalitions within the major voting blocks that exist in the nonpartisan municipal elections.  Those blocks are white democrats, black democrats, conservatives, and Hispanics.  While others exist they are more fragmented and/or too low in population to build from.

Out of the blocks the Hispanics are the least influential as was shown in the last municipal election.  Districts J and F were drawn to have a Hispanic win office, but Councilmembers Pollard and Thomas won respectively. Councilman Pollard won over a formidable Hispanic in the runoff further reinforcing the weaker nature of the Hispanic block.

The chatter regarding what’s important in the new chair shows the divide in strategy on how the party should proceed.  Some insist that pushing our economic message is the best way forward in that if people are prosperous they will vote for us, or various iterations of this message.  Others say that expanding the base is the way forward, that the County has become light blue, and we must flip voters in the County to have a chance to prevail in the future.  Still others say that we have to focus on social issues more than fiscal issues in order to have success.  All the other chatter has been either inside party grudges/mechanics, or a variation of the three basic arguments.

2022, 2023, and 2024 are very different cycles

While 2022 is important in that it is the next election the cycle is also important because some of the bond to murder judges are up for reelection.  Judge Hidalgo is also up for reelection and winning that race would flip Commissioner’s Court back to Republican control.  However, that’s only half the picture.

If the democrats have a clean sweep there’s no reason for any voting block to want to engage with the conservative voting block on the next municipal elections.  With vulnerable criminal judges up for reelection if we can’t take at least one bench we show that we aren’t enough of a voting presence to matter in the municipal elections.  2022 isn’t just about that cycle it’s also about having a seat at the table when it comes to the 2023 municipal elections.

The County Power Divide is Deepening

Although I believe Kevin Fulton is the best choice for chair of the 5 announced candidates that’s not a negative on Cindy Siegel.  She has many strengths she could bring as party chair.  Her run for Commissioner is a good race to use to show how the party has shifted in the county.  Both she and Commissioner elect Ramsey come from republican areas in the county.  With Covid dampening the ability to campaign the race was more of a testament to where the republican power in the precinct lies.

The results show that Bellaire, while still an important republican area in the county, is not enough to win the precinct.  The republican power in the county has shifted, by and large, to outside the beltway.  This thesis is further supported by the two state house seats flipping.,  Sarah Davis’ district is now blue showing that the area inside the beltway is trending light blue.  Again, this isn’t a knock against Cindy Siegel.  This is solely used for illustrative purposes.

Whipping Up Outside the City Votes

With the City versus County political affiliation becoming more divided the potential pathways forward countywide are to whip up turnout outside the city or try and convert voters inside the city.  Both pathways have arguable chances for success.  With Trump not at the top of the ticket in 2022, and no US Senate race at the top of the ticket we are unlikely to see as much democratic turnout.  Cruz didn’t effectively blunt Betomania in Harris County, and Trump was enough to ensure mass democrat turnout last month.

Without a top of the ticket force to drive democrats to the ballot there should be some degree of decline in the democrat turnout.  If the outside the city voters can be whipped up to come out in numbers similar to the last two cycles the gap will narrow.  With crime already showing up in the voting, and the very judges who are making the crime problem worse up for reelection, it’s not unreasonable to think at least those seats can be flipped in the next cycle with strong republican turnout outside the city.  The additional benefit of this pathway is it will help to counteract some of the discontent with Abbott and make undervoteing in that race less likely.

Expanding the Base Within the City

The other pathway forward is to expand the voting base within the city.  This tactic has the obvious advantage of having a double impact.  Each voter you can switch is one less vote for the democrats and one more vote for the republicans.  This tactic also has the added benefit of possible carryover into the municipal elections in 2023.  The long term benefits of this tactic are far in excess of the other pathway forward, but there is greater risk in this pathway.

The republican version of economic messaging isn’t likely to resonate well with the voting blocks that do not vote with us.  Fiscal responsibility is important, but it is not popular.  The image below is a 2016 voter plot (national level) where voters identified on social and fiscal scales.  A distinct majority of the population is not fiscally conservative.

To try and use economic messaging to expand the voting base means to preach a different economic message that will resonate with the target audience.  That message is economic impact zones.  It’s making capital available for economic prosperity.  That message is making education affordable and forgiving debt to make life easier.  It’s not traditional republican messaging.  However, Trump out performing among minority voters shows that messaging works.  It’s a message we could use and enact, but it will come at cost to the traditional fiscal conservative message which creates division in the party.

Social issues have also shown to be effective in building alliances.  The bathroom bill is one example, but right to life issues also resonate strongly in the Hispanic and Filipino populations.  Attempting to rebuild the social issue coalition along with beating the tough on crime drum has a good chance of getting ticket splitting on the bottom of the ballot with the vulnerable judges up for reelection and can expand the base.  But it comes at a price with the existing economy first message republicans outside the city.

Which Path is Better?

The pathways forward are not mutually exclusive, but it will be difficult to try and achieve both at the same time before the 2022 election. The short time frame raises the question of which path is the better way forward?  Some of that answer lies in how well will HCRP cooperate under the new chair.  From everything that has transpired in this relatively opaque process of choosing a new chair it doesn’t look promising for HCRP to have a peaceful coexistence within the short term.

The likelihood of more fighting makes it difficult to believe that continuing the current trends of relying on ground game and message continuation is the better pathway ahead.  If we could put our differences aside for the sake of getting rid of the vulnerable judges and gaining a seat at the table for 2023 that would be the less risky path forward, and it would have a chance of success.

With the likelihood of intraparty fighting continuing trying to build for the future seems a more promising route to go.  Hopefully everyone sees defeating the vulnerable judges as the easiest pathway to stem the blue wipe outs that have been occurring.  Focusing on that task leads more naturally to connecting with voters who don’t normally vote with us.  Establishing those relationships along with economic and social messaging that’s more likely to resonate with the respective voting blocks is a natural way to expand the base.

Will it cost us some votes with traditional economic messaging adherents?  Doubtless yes.  However, the ability to split the ticket at the local level and have better relationships going into 2023 seems to be the wiser course of action, especially with much of the conservative voting strength residing outside of Houston proper.  This engage and expand the base is the pathway that’s more likely to have benefits in 2023 and is a better pathway forward.

Interview With Kevin Fulton

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Kevin Fulton was kind enough to be interviewed regarding his announcement he was seeking the Harris County Republican Party chair position in the wake of Keith Nelson’s resignation.  The biggest challenge we face as a county party is to stop the infighting, and he has as good a chance as anyone to end the fighting as anyone.  Additionally he has a well thought out plan to steer the county party back to viability.  With vulnerable bond-to-murder criminal court judges up for reelection in 2022 the party has an opportunity to break the cycle of wipe outs and need someone who can put the pieces together for both 2022 and the long term picture.  Kevin’s plan has a chance to meet both the short term opportunity as well as the long term needs of the party.

Why Run

Kevin mentioned that he was seeking the County Party chair because he grew up in an inner city environment and conservative values were what helped him progress from the inner city to where he is today.  He wants to bring the same opportunity he received to others in the inner city, and believes that in doing so it will expand the conservative message to voters we otherwise would not reach.  This not only expands our voting base, but also expands economic prosperity to those who currently are struggling which in turn helps move the overall mentality more towards a conservative mindset.

His Vision

Kevin was very open and transparent, and believes that is an important aspect of how the party needs to act going forward. He intends to have Kathaleen Wall as his vice chair and let her focus on her strong points of election integrity, technology, and the fundraising aspects for the County Party while he focuses on creating a party infrastructure for messaging and expanding the base.  Ms. Wall is a somewhat controversial figure, and when I asked if he was certain he wanted this information added into the article he said yes, that transparency is important even if the decision making may cause controversy.  That’s the kind of commitment to transparency we need to win the trust of the general public.

The bifurcation of fundraising and message/base expansion is a good initial use of talent.  Rather than try to control all processes he is trying to surround himself with capable individuals and let them work from their strengths.  He already has established vehicles to help spread conservative principles and economic prosperity to areas we don’t normally reach.  Focusing on the areas where he already has success while leaving fundraising to individuals who have that skill set is a good short term strategy to get the County Party headed in a better direction.

Building the Party

Outside of the immediate need of finances versus ground game Kevin believes it’s important to have local control of data.  The party used Voter Vault when I was a precinct chair.  Now, Nation Builder is a popular vehicle to use for data purposes.  However, these are all third party sources of data and the County Party has to constantly purchase updated  data each election.  In fact, as the information is used it is updated with the third party vendor, and the County Party has no system in place to store and maintain their own data outside of the third party vendors.  Kevin wants to create an application where the County Party obtains the information, and as it is updated through the course of campaigning the info goes back to the County Party rather than to third party vendors.  Having a good, locally generated, dataset will help with future elections.

Kevin also wants to make sure the County Party recruits and supports candidates for nonpartisan races.  This is an avenue to reach out and build goodwill among people who have overlapping ideas even though they may not vote with us.  The cooperation on nonpartisan campaigns also is a good way to bring more conservative individuals to power.  The formula worked to defeat Mayor Parker’s bathroom imitative.  The formula can work to bring more conservatives into nonpartisan race offices.  Plus if the candidate is accepting our support behind the scenes we will get some data to use in continuing to build and update the party maintained dataset.

Stopping the Infighting and PACs

The last area we covered was how to stop the intraparty fighting and address the influence PACs have in local races.  Kevin is as well situated as anyone to address the infighting.  He told me that Simpson asked him to be his vice chair, and then he was Nelson’s vice chair.  Kevin accepted the vice chair spot under Keith when he saw that the party was in trouble and faced claims of racism by the media that could hurt Republican candidates on the ballot. He is at least respected by both factions, and therefore has a chance to keep everyone from open warfare even if it continues to some degree behind the scenes.  Moving the strife out of the light to behind closed doors presents a picture of a more unified party.

The PACs are a different issue than the infighting.  The GOP is a big tent party, or at least we should be. This leaves PACs well received in some parts of the party and despised by some parts of the party.  That problem is going to continue, but Kevin indicated that the path forward to minimize conflict is to get the PACs out of local party issues, and simply engage with them in a manner of cooperation where the vision is shared, and to politely not engage when the PAC vision and the local party vision does not overlap.

Kevin is the best person for Chair.

The party, obviously, is in a dire situation.  Kevin seems both well situated and to have a well developed plan to address our immediate needs as well as to take advantage of the short and long term opportunities.  Simpson left the party with a cash crisis and Keith wasn’t able to fundraise effectively.  Turning the fundraising operation over to Wall is smart as it should result in some incoming from fundraising.  It also frees Kevin up to address messaging and any issues that arise, which are more of his strong points.

The next Chair has to be ready and able to help candidates who are going to oppose the weak on crime judges that are up for election in 2022.  Looking at the splits between Dana for Sherriff, Huffman for District Attorney, and the Civil versus Criminal County Courts at Law this past cycle shows that crime is showing up in the election.  Sadly, Dana fell by 15 points.  Huffman lost by 7.5. The criminal court races average was 6.5 points, which was 4.5 points closer than the civil court race.

Opportunity exists in 2022.  Kevin is well situated to expand our message to a portion of the electorate that is most likely to flip on crime issues and at least split their ticket on crime.  Winning begets winning.  Once the cycle of blue wipe outs has been stemmed we are better positioned to see more success follow.

Instead Of Blessing America, God Unleashed A Plague Of Radical-Left Pestilence Upon Us

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The game is over.  Biden’s last-minute tackle in Pennsylvania keeps Trump from scoring game-winning touchdown.

The Trump presidency restored America to greatness.  Now America faces a dark future. The words to “God Bless America” no longer apply.

 

2017 – 2020 
God bless America, land that I love
Stand beside her and guide her
Through the night with the light from above
From the mountains to the prairies
To the oceans white with foam
God bless America, my home sweet home
2021 – 2024 
God damned America, land that I used to love
Stood against her and misguided her
Through the day and night with the radical left 
From the mountains to the prairies
To the oceans white with foam
God damned America, my home bitter home

On Monday, a large group of Israeli settlers prayed for President Trump’s reelection at the Cave of the Patriarchs burial site, where Abraham is reputed to be interred.  Tragically, their prayers were not answered.  We got Biden-Harris instead.

Biden won, Trump lost.  Although the final results from Pennsylvania are not yet in, a win for Biden there seems a certainty.  And the courts are not going to deny Biden the presidency.  On December 14 the Electoral College will elect the White Obama as our next president.

Trump has mostly himself to blame.  His tweets attacking anyone, friend or foe, who disagreed with him, and some of his outrageous statements cost him the votes of suburban college-educated women, a key segment of the electorate.

Even in the early hours of Wednesday morning, Trump could not refrain from letting his mouth overload his ass by declaring victory and calling the election a fraud.  Even some of his staunchest Republican friends blasted that statement.

And on Thursday, Trump went on a 17-minute rant during which he claimed a conspiracy by the Democrats, the media and big tech was stealing the election from him.

Without a doubt, there have been irregularities in the vote counting.  As Caroline B. Glick reports:

In the wee hours of the night in Michigan, 138,339 mail-in ballots were counted. Biden won every single one of them. Hours after the stunning, vertical rise in Biden’s numbers was reported, (and after Twitter censored Republicans, including President Trump who demanded an explanation), Michigan election officials claimed the numbers were a “data error.” A glitchy vote-counting software accidentally added a zero – that is, 100,000 votes to Biden’s tally. The same glitchy software accidentally forgot to enter the votes that Trump won. Oops. In Wisconsin, Biden got a similar 120,000 vote boost during the night and when Republicans woke up on Wednesday morning, Trump’s 4.7% lead had all but disappeared. Trump got none of the votes.

Glick also notes that in Nevada there have been 10,000 votes cast by non-residents.

But those irregularities do not make the whole election a fraud.  They could, however, in some instances change the election outcome in favor of Trump.

The media played a significant role in Trump’s loss by poisoning the public’s mind with daily attacks against Trump from before he took office.  In revenge for Trump having defeated their beloved Hillary, the media spread lies about him and failed to give him credit for his numerous accomplishments.  And by his tweets and repetition of ridiculous conspiracy theories., Trump himself gave the media plenty of cannon fodder with which to shoot him down.

Conversely, except for the New York Post, the media went out of its way to shield Biden from any reports which might reflect poorly on their favorite candidate.  When the Post published stories about  Hunter Biden’s shady foreign business dealings and his father’s involvement in them, the rest of the media buried the story by falsely reporting it was fake news planted by the Russians to damage Biden’s candidacy.

Then there was the coronavirus pandemic which destroyed a booming Trump economy and brought into question his handling of the pandemic.  Trump consistently contradicted the scientists, displayed contempt for masks, and belittled the seriousness of the pandemic even as it surged throughout the country.

The Trump campaign is calling for a vote recount in Wisconsin and there will be a vote recount in Georgia.  Recounts rarely ever change election outcomes so that a recount of the Wisconsin votes will be unlikely to overturn a Biden win there.  The same goes for any of the other closely contested states.

Trump says he will take his election fraud cases to the courts.  Those cases must first be filed in a US District Court.  And  if the district and appellate courts rule against Trump, the Supreme Court will be most reluctant to repeat having to make a decision like the one in 2000 which declared George W. Bush to be the winner over Al Gore.  The Supreme Court will probably refuse to hear a challenge to the election outcome, but even if it does, the three justices appointed by Trump will likely side against him.

The only bright spot in the nationwide election is that Republicans gained seats in the House.  But the race to see who controls the Senate is not as good.  For Republicans to retain control of the Senate, Republican incumbents David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler must each win a January runoff election in Georgia against their Democratic challengers.  Retaining control of the Senate is crucial to keep the Democrats from packing the Supreme Court and enacting a socialist agenda now that AOC and her squad will pull Biden and the Democrats even further to the left.

Texas remained red.  Locally the Republicans fared remarkably well considering that Harris County is overwhelmingly Democratic.  Most Republican office holders retained their seats.  The Republicans retained the seat on the Commissioner’s Court that was vacated by long-term incumbent Steve Radack.  And Trump garnered 48 percent of the Harris County vote, a figure that far exceeded what he was expected to get.  Unfortunately, our criminal-hugging district attorney swept her Democratic challenger away.

To make matters worse for the nation, there is the probability that Biden will be removed from office before the end of his term because he already shows signs of dementia.  That will make Kamala Harris president, and the uber-liberal is thrice as bad for America as the White Obama.

However, if the Republicans retain control of the Senate, Mitch McConnell will become the most powerful man in the nation.   That is because legislation passed by the Democrat controlled House will have to pass through McConnell before it can go to the president for his signature.  And McConnell is not about to let the Democrats pack the Supreme Court and he will not let any socialist legislation reach the desk of the president.

While God has unleashed a plague upon us, let’s all pray that Harris will not ever become president.  Hopefully, those prayers will be answered.

Post election quick thoughts

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The 2020 election has finally come and gone. Well, almost anyway. As I write this at 8 am on Wednesday morning, the outcomes for President and US Senate remains unclear but we do know a few things that should make Texas Republicans happy. And there are even a few bright spots for Republicans in Harris County. Just a few quick thoughts this morning.

While we wait for the national outcomes, let’s focus on the wins in Texas. But first, take a look at this from Houston Police Chief Art Acevedo:

art acevedo

Yeah, I’d say he’s running for office. As for his opinion, I’d agree.

Texas remained red, deep red. Trump won Texas, Sen. John Cornyn easily defeated his well funded challenger, the Texas Supreme Court and Court of Criminal Appeals remained firmly in Republican hands and a completely unknown and underfunded Republican won the very important Railroad Commission seat. Good news.

The Texas House remained red despite all of the predictions (hope?) from the Texas political media. This was incredibly important due to the upcoming redistricting fight.

Sarah Davis lost. Although I like her and think she represented her district well, there will be no gnashing of teeth from Republicans about her loss. This is from Michael Quinn Sullivan this morning:

  • The Texas House has remained firmly in GOP hands.
  • As I type this just before 2 a.m., only one incumbent Republican member of the Texas House has officially lost: State Rep. Sarah Davis of Houston.
  • It would be fair to have put quotes around Republican; there isn’t a conservative position she hasn’t fought against. She is a social and fiscal liberal, ranking below some Democrats on key conservative ratings. She even caucused with the Democrats at various times during the legislative session!
  • Meanwhile, Republican Mike Schofield defeated an incumbent Democrat in Houston. He campaigned as a conservative, and won. Similarly, Republican Lacey Hull defeated a Democrat to keep an open GOP-held seat that many observers had written off. She also campaigned as a conservative, and won.
  • The lesson from Harris County is this: when Republicans act like Democrats, voters will eventually vote for the Democrats.

In Harris County, things went as expected county wide but there were many signs of hope. Tom Ramsey winning in Commissioner’s Court Precinct 3 was the most important election on our ballot. This gives Republicans a legitimate shot at returning the court to Republican control in 2022. If he had been unsuccessful, it would have years upon years before R’s had a chance to do that. The election for County Judge in 2022 starts TODAY!

Not quite as important but important nonetheless, Mike Schofield won in his rematch for State Rep 132 and Lacey Hull was able to defend State Rep 138. Justin Ray came within a hair of defeating the Democrat incumbent in 135, losing by only 317 votes out of 74,504 votes cast. Maybe he can flip that seat in 2022 with the governor’s race on the ballot.

Once again, the President was a drag on the ballot in Harris County but he did do better in both total votes and percentage than he did in 2016. He received 41.6% of the vote in 2016 and got 42.8% this time. That is roughly the same 4% less than the other R’s on the ballot in Harris County. The lack of straight party voting doesn’t appear to have had any material impact. The undervote percentage for District Attorney in 2016 with straight ticket voting was 3.7% and this year it was 5.4%. No election was close enough for that difference to have an impact.

In the Congressional races, Dan Crenshaw crushed his very well funded opponent in CD2, cementing his place as a star in the party. In CD7, Karl Rove’s handpicked candidate from central casting lost to the Nancy Pelosi supporting Democrat. I sure wish we could have seen what Cindy Siegel could have done in that race.

Now is the time for the Harris County Republican Party to regroup and start planning for the future. There are many votes to be had on the south and east sides. On the whole, Harris County turnout was 67.84%. In several of the state house districts on the east side, the turnout was under 55%.

Lastly, I have to say how disappointed I am in Rep. Briscoe Cain. He only got 68.4% of the vote. What’s up with that? Dude needs to do some extra blockwalking for that poor showing! C’mon Briscoe, man up! Get to 70% next time!

So what are your thoughts?

 

Interview With Mary Nan Huffman

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Mary Nan Huffman was kind enough to take time to talk about her race for District Attorney.  It is imperative that she be elected.  We are in the midst of crime ramping up in Harris County, and we have a District Attorney who does not prosecute crime.  After spending time with Ms. Huffman it is clear that the District Attorney’s office is complicit with the bond to murder spree and that we are all suffering because of the way the office has been run.  This is somewhat unexpected since Ogg’s father was a conservative state senator, but the way she has acted shows she does not align with those values.  We should treat Ogg the same way we treated Devon Anderson four years ago.  Hold her accountable for her current actions despite the political past and lineage.

This interview was a little different than the ones with Ramsey, Danna, and Heap in that this piece focuses more on the problems with the District Attorney’s office and how she will correct the problems if elected. Mary Nan Huffman has the experience to be district attorney. She was a prosecutor in Montgomery County, and as will be discussed later they have a different philosophy than Harris County when it comes to working crimes. She also is well situated to mend fences with law enforcement agencies since she is presently an attorney with the Houston Police Union.

What Happens on Her Watch is Her Responsibility

Four years ago Ogg ran ads against Anderson regarding jailing a rape victim.  The reasoning was Anderson is responsible for what happens under her watch even if she isn’t directly involved.  The same standard should be applied to Ogg.  The Ogg camp has been saying that issues are present, but she shouldn’t be held responsible because she wasn’t directly involved.  That’s inconsistent with what she alleged when she was the challenger.  She was right then, and Huffman is right now.  The elected District Attorney is responsible for what happens under her watch.  The list of problems that the county faces is large, but let’s look at some of the specific problems that are solely relatable to Ogg, and how Huffman would act differently.

The Arkema prosecution is a great example of politically motivated prosecution.  The federal government was already investigating, but Ogg made a political decision to become involved.  What was the result? The court found two instances of prosecutorial misconduct, and after each side presented their case the judge ended the case by way of a directed verdict.  Huffman indicated she would prosecute cases by focusing on facts and evidence rather than other considerations.

Ogg’s office was also embroiled in other internal operations issues.  She had the whole fiasco where her office sent an email “suggesting” volunteering for her campaign.  She initially claimed that her account was used, but that she didn’t actually send the emails.  Huffman noted that later an open records request showed that she actually was aware of the email going out and approved the message.  Then she also had the whole fiasco regarding the whole Covid death chart fiasco, where she continued to demand personal cell phones after the culprit was identified.  The end result is that morale at the office is low, and there’s been a greater than 40% turnover from when she was elected.  This in turn has lead to a backlog in prosecution, with the pending murder/capital murder cases has risen from 988 to over 1,300.

Bail Reform/Bond to Murder

One of the biggest issues is bail reform and the bond to murder spree.  Ogg has tried to say that the problem lies with the judges not with her.  However, Huffman was able to give me documentation, shown below, where the district attorney’s office agreed to a PR bond that ended up in a bond to murder situation.  On May 16th, 2020, Rosalee Cook was murdered.  The offender had a 67 prior arrest history.  On April 20, 2020 he was granted a PR bond that was an agreed bond by all parties.  The document below is the agreement.  The red circle shows where Ogg’s office agreed to the PR bond, and the blue/purple circle oval notes the April 2020 date.  This not only was Ogg’s office agreeing to the PR bond, but it was done this year.  Ogg can’t say that the judges are the fault when her office is agreeing to the PR bonds.

Civil Unrest and Officer Morale

The county faces two opposing opinions in civil unrest and law enforcement morale.  On one hand some segments say they face unjust prosecution and law enforcement violence directed towards him.  On the other, Ogg gave mass releases to the protestors.  This appeared to be a political consideration.  In order to prosecute for violence the officers would have to be able to be able to identify who and when they threw an object or engaged in violence towards property.  To get around this problem, but still hold those who were engaged in such behavior accountable lesser charges were alleged.  The district Ogg’s office accepted the charges and then dismissed the vast majority.  This isn’t to say that no instances of law enforcement misconduct occur, but it is not reason to allow mass unrest like we saw with Floyd.

How Huffman Would Address These Issues

Huffman is well positioned to address the challenges above because of the difference the way Montgomery County and Harris County DA offices investigate crime.  In Montgomery County, where Huffman was a prosecutor, they practiced vertical prosecution.  That’s where the assistant district attorney is involved with the case directly from the beginning of the case through disposition.  The assistant district attorney would go to the crime scene and be present at the evidence gathering.

The transition to vertical prosecution is going to address the backlog of cases because the cases will be more developed at the beginning of the process.  This direct involvement in case development led to quicker plea bargains in Montgomery County, and that is likely to translate to Harris County.  This will also lead to closer ties between the DA office and the various law enforcement agencies.

The bail reform issue is one where Huffman said she would implement a test of not wanting to keep people behind bars because they are poor balanced against public safety.  Huffman said she would keep programs Ogg was running, such as the second chance program, but that the program functioning would be examined to make sure the program was working as expected and not being misused.  This allows people who can be reformed and stay a productive member of society to remain in society but at the same time not be used as a vehicle for a 15th chance.  Huffman also indicated she would keep the program allowing civil attorneys to prosecute minor crimes intact, but rather than limit the participation to certain firms she would open the process to any attorney who wanted to apply to participate.  Since some attorneys feel a sense of duty to contribute back to society the potential volunteer pool is larger than the preselected firms that currently participate.

Mary Nan Huffman: Kim Ogg put the gun in his hands

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Actions have consequences, Ms. Ogg. From the InBox:

Mary Nan Huffman logo

WEBSITE: https://www.marynanhuffman.com/PR-20-10-20
BITLY: https://bit.ly/3kbId6V

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE:
Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Actions Have Consequences: Ogg Directly Responsible for HPD Officer’s Death
He pulled the trigger but she put the gun in his hands

HOUSTON TX – Houston Police Department Sergeant Harold Preston was killed in the line of duty today. As tragic as that is, his death was 100% preventable. His partner also was shot and will survive his injuries.

The suspect, Elmer Manzano, a convicted felon with multiple prior assaults on his record, was in custody just a day before this tragedy occurred.

On October 18, HPD Officers responded to a call from Mrs. Santos, stating that her ex-husband, Mr. Manzano, was at the location brandishing a gun threatening Mrs. Santos and her children.

HPD Officers took Mr. Manzano into custody that day but Kim Ogg declined to take charges, instructing the Officers to release him, leaving the gun at the scene. Had charges been accepted, Mr. Manzano might be back on the street, but his gun and ammunition would have been seized and held as evidence.

No gun would have meant no dead officer.

Today, Officers responded to another call from Mrs. Santos. Mr. Manzano answered the door firing gun shots at point blank range. The two Officers were hit.

100% preventable.

The actions of Harris County District Attorney Kim Ogg are inexcusable. While Mr. Manzano pulled the trigger, Kim Ogg put the gun in his hands. Her actions are directly responsible for the death of HPD Sergeant Preston.

The good people of Harris County mourn the tragic and senseless loss of HPD Sergeant Preston. They have an opportunity to ensure this does not happen again.

DA Ogg’s fate is in their hands. She is on the ballot today.

Vote to keep your streets, your neighborhoods, your homes, and family safe. Vote to keep the men and women of law enforcement from preventable perils. Vote to hold Kim Ogg responsible for HPD Sergeant Preston’s death.

More information about Mary Nan Huffman is available at www.MaryNanHuffman.com.

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I like Kim Ogg. I voted for Kim Ogg. But her actions, combined with those of the Democratic judges in Harris County, have led directly to increased crime and this travesty.

Vote for your life. Vote Republican.

Harris County Democrats Efforts to Weaken Law Enforcement

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The judicial and district attorney soft on crime aspects in Harris County has received significant coverage, but one aspect that hasn’t been covered is the effort by democrat elected officials to weaken law enforcement in Harris County.  While the effort’s pieces were all in the open, the cumulative effect didn’t sink in until reflecting on the information learned when Joe Danna and Ted Heap were kind enough to come in for an interview.  When viewing the current elected Democrats’ behavior through the lens of information learned in those interviews the picture seems much more ominous.

Extent of the crime problem

While various entities may report on the crime rate this number is skewed by the district attorney’s office willingness to accept a case.  A different metric to use to judge the amount of reported crime is the crime incidence number.  It is a measurement of the number of times a person has called to report a crime and a law enforcement response followed. This metric does not consider if the district attorney’s office accepts the charge or the number of counts involved.

Houston Police Department has published this metric for January – August 2020, and for comparison purposes the same month range for 2019 is given in the chart below. What’s striking in the chart is every month in 2020 shows a year over year increase from 2019.  While the official crime statistics may show a decline in criminal activity if we look at the incident report we see that crime reports are consistently up.  This shows that the public is reporting more crime and that the lower crime statistics are the result of cases not being referred to or accepted by the district attorney’s office.  A better way to say this is to say criminal prosecution is down, but criminal activity has increased.

The effort to weaken law enforcement

The democrats appear to be actively involved with an effort to weaken law enforcement.  Whether or not this is a coordinated effort is immaterial – the effort is pervasive and will result in a further escalation of criminal activity.  Here are a few highlights, and the next section will explain why these efforts are detrimental to combating crime.

Right now Harris County Sherriff’s Office has funding and approval for an additional 101 positions.  Ed Gonzalez could have filled these positions at any time, but has made a deliberate decision not to fill the positions.  Adrian Garcia suggested an effort to end the constable contract program in favor of the sheriff contract program.  Rodney Ellis has called bringing attention to the consequences of the weak on crime criminal judges and bail issues fear mongering.

Consequences of Democrat Elected Officials Plans

The consequences of the three examples given above are/would be devastating for curtailing crime in Harris County.  Ed Gonzalez’ refusal to fill 101 positions is self evident in how it is criminal friendly and prevents law enforcement intervention in criminal matters. Not facially evident is the effect from the other two examples.

It is the constables rather than Houston Police Department that investigate property crime.  With the constables reporting statistics to HPD and HCSO their involvement is not readily apparent as it appears commingled with HPD and HCSO statistical reports.  If the constable contract program is ended in favor of the sheriff contract program it will end the already established community ties that have developed between the community and the constables.   Even if every contract were successfully migrated to HCSO this would create reporting issues since the constables report, as appropriate, to HPD and HSCO.

The switching from constable to HCSO contracts would create the false appearance of a drop in crime in Houston because of the technical aspects of the way the reporting is compiled.  Plus, the transition from constable to HCSO has the inherent risk of inability to service the contracts and risk of contract nonrenewal since it is a new entity that is performing the duties of the contract program.  In short, less law enforcement investigation would occur, especially with property crime, and criminals would have even less reason to fear committing these crimes.

More sinister is Rodney Ellis’ comments that exposing the problems associated with bail reform is fear mongering.  Right now the suit that Commissioner’s Court is involved with settling is misdemeanor bail reform.  Felony bail reform will be addressed next, and a reasonable inference from Ellis’ comments is that he will be actively advocating for criminal friendly bail provisions in the settlement for the felony bail reform. Remember, if this is the result of litigation and an agreed judgment then we are stuck with the consequences.  A future Commissioner’s Court would not be able to change operating procedures since there will be a legal judgment in place.

We have a stark choice in the election

The election is a stark choice between reigning in crime and the continued slide into lawlessness in Harris County.  It’s imperative that Ramsey win election for Commissioner’s Court so we have an active voice to combat Ellis and Garcia and expose the process to sunlight.  It’s also extremely important that Joe Danna be elected as Sheriff so that the office can be fully staffed and be actively involved in combating crime.   That’s not enough to protect the public.  It’s also important Mary Nan Huffman be elected so that we have a district attorney who will actually prosecute crimes.  Voting republican for Commissioner’s Court, Sheriff and District Attorney are necessary to start the process of reigning in criminal behavior in Harris County.

So what’s happening with political party finances in Harris County?

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I finally got around to looking at the 30 day out finance reports for the two major parties in Harris County. And as expected, the Harris County Democratic Party is well funded while the Harris County Republican Party is, shall we say, not.

Harris County Political Party 30 day Campaign Finance
Democratic Republican
Raised $ 231,904.11 $ 2,770.00
Spent $ 105,552.32 $ 1,240.00
Cash on Hand 9/24 $ 161,360.27 $ 1,760.05
Period (7/1/20 – 9/24/20) (8/3/20 – 9/24/20)

So, if you are one of the ones asking why there isn’t much activity from the HCRP via traditional communication avenues, I think you have your answer. Note the different reporting periods – that reflects the date that Keith Nielsen took over as chair of the HCRP.

Those numbers are from the County Executive Committee reports required by the state and do not include Federal reports. They are just as lopsided but there is one very interesting entry on the HCRP’s report filed yesterday.

BILL GATES 10230 NE POINTS DR SUITE 200
KIRKLAND, Washington 98033		 GATES FOUNDATION / CO-CHAIRMAN CONTRIBUTION 09/29/2020 5000.00 5000.00

$5,000 from Bill Gates? Huh. Who’d a thunk it?

If you are a Republican in Harris County, you’d better be out there doing non-traditional campaigning if you want your candidates to have a prayer.

In Shoreacres, we had a golf cart Trump parade!

 

 

Interview with Joe Danna for Sherriff

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Joe Danna was kind enough to agree to be interviewed regarding his race for Sherriff.  Running against an incumbent Democrat in this election cycle is a difficult proposition, and he is to be commended for taking the time, effort, and expense of this uphill battle.  This interview focused on what his vision for the Sherriff’s office looks like, and how will he differ from the current incumbent.

He indicated that his priorities are taking politics out of the office, filling budgeted but unfilled positions within the office, and making sure the bad officers are identified and removed from the office.  He believes these steps will lead to better community relations and better service to the public.  To understand how all of this impacts law enforcement and the Sherriff’s office it’s best to start with an overview of the overall political climate.

It’s been discussed ad nauseam, but we live in a time where we have a soft on crime District Attorney, and criminal court judges are criminal friendly.  Criminals don’t fear committing crime, and he pointed out how this has the effect of having criminals from outside the county coming into Harris County to commit crime since the criminal justice system has become so criminal friendly.  It’s a deliberate calculation – crime is a safer proposition in Harris County than in the surrounding counties so they come here to commit crime.  Not only does this create a greater danger to the citizens of the county, but it also demoralizes law enforcement especially in the overall context of the Democratic party’s hostility towards law enforcement in general.  This, in turn, has lead to negative public safety and public service impacts.  He noted that the average response time for a hit and run, which if injuries are involved is at least a state jail felony, is four hours.

To address these concerns he has a plan to take politics out of the office and to fundamentally change the organizational structure to improve functioning of the office.  The organizational structure would change to where five individuals in the office would answer to him directly; they would have five individuals answer to them, and so on.  This decentralizes the power at the top of the organizational chart, and improves communication by eliminating bottlenecks with communication.  This also leaves a clearer picture of where responsibilities lie and how to address issues that arise.  From a decision making standpoint he wants to make decisions from a good of the Sherriff’s office prism with the belief that a happy functioning department will be better able to serve the public.

He was concerned about the various efforts to centralize power and staffing of the Sherriff’s office.  Adrian Garcia has proposed a plan that would have eliminated the Constable contract program and assumed it under the Sherriff’s office.  He believes this is a bad idea.  Although the idea was withdrawn by Commissioner Garcia the intent was clear – centralize the program under the Sherriff’s office.  This plan is especially concerning since the office is understaffed.  He noted that right now 101 budgeted and approved positions are vacant.  The failure to fill these positions seems like an under the table way to defund the office, and with Commissioner Garcia’s attempt to divert the Constable contract program to the Sherriff’s office this seems like a coordinated effort to decrease law enforcement effectiveness and weaken law enforcement’s capabilities to address crime.

The last area we covered is how his office could better enhance public safety if he is elected. In addition to filling the 101 positions noted above, he felt it was important to build better to build community relationships. He said this starts by making sure HCSO treats everyone equally regardless of race, gender, ideology, or the number of contacts they have had with law enforcement.  Each contact is a new contact and everyone in the county is on equal footing when they reach out to the Sherriff’s office for assistance.  Building community relationships is important because he noted that people tend to not get involved unless they are a victim, and cited Mothers Against Drunk Driving and Texas Equasearch as examples.  Building community relationships takes time, especially in this current political climate, and in the meantime he felt that immediate actions he could take are reallocating resources to areas of need – human trafficking only has three people assigned to the division – and to accept calls and investigate crimes that Houston Police Department is unable to investigate since the Sherriff’s office has jurisdiction county wide.  He also noted a willingness to actively identify and remove bad officers whether it’s 0.001% or 10% of the force.

The overall impression he left was that he would change the focus of the office.  Rather than politically oriented he would be office and public safety oriented.  Reallocation of resources to meet the current needs of public safety and filling the 101 available and funded positions alone would help to increase public safety.  The willingness to remove bad officers, and desire to treat each call and every individual on a clean slate every call should give comfort to the entire community.  The willingness to investigate crimes the Houston Police Department is unable to allocate resources to investigate will help to make sure everyone can receive assistance if they reach out for help.  All of this is especially important in our current political climate where criminals feel that it is safer to come to Harris County to engage in criminal behavior than to conduct crime in their own areas.

He is endorsed by: Mike Knox, The “C” Club of Houston, Texas Homeschool Coalition, J.L. Trahan (BIZPAC.US Executive Chariman), Representative Briscoe Cain, Michael Berry