Will a #NeverTrumper be able to lead the Harris County Republican Party to victory in 2018? Paul Simpson has kicked off the new year with a series of meetings to try to justify his losing campaign of 2016. Simpson and his team met separately with bloggers, including David Jennings and me, candidates, and judges and he is now on a road show to explain his losing 2016 campaign. Simpson has a lot of data to go with his talking points as to why Harris County Republicans did so poorly. This is my review of Simpson & Co.’s efforts in the 2016 election cycle.
Simpson and his consultant, Kevin Shuvalov, prioritized voter turnout in HD 134, home to Sarah Davis. The re-election of Sarah Davis, the self-identified pro-choice “Republican” was a priority to Joe Straus as Davis carried all of Planned Parenthood’s bills last session.
In the 2016 election, Texas Right to Life specifically targeted and campaigned against two Harris County “Republicans”: Sarah Davis and Devon Anderson. By now, you know that Anderson prosecuted pro-life heroes David Daleiden and Sandra Merritt for their brave videos that unveiled Planned Parenthood’s misdeeds. It should be noted that Davis endorsed Anderson.
Davis’s district is one of the most liberal Republican leaning house districts in Texas. When Anderson, in a last ditch effort to defeat her opponent, claimed that her opponent would be a weaker district attorney because of her sexual orientation, I know that Davis had to think twice about her endorsement.
Davis and the Harris County Republican Party were aided by Kevin Shuvalov, a political consultant who also does work for Straus. A very rudimentary knowledge of HD 134 and Harris County would have told you turning out the vote in the most liberal house district would not be helpful to countywide Republicans, it was not. It did help Sarah Davis.
At the outset, it was clear that Harris County Republicans would have an uphill battle. Given Ted Cruz’s posture, many of his supporters were #NeverTrumpers. Instead of using the momentum of conservative victories such as the defeat of the so-called equal rights ordinance, Simpson and the gang harnessed the #NeverTrump movement and explicitly directed voters to not worry about the top of the ticket but make sure that they vote for our judicial candidates. This approach was flawed in many ways.
First, Simpson never made a compelling argument for a Republican judiciary. Why are Republicans better on the bench? Second, by running a #NeverTrump campaign, Simpson failed to get Trump supporters to the polls.
Simpson is now claiming that two factors led to the downfall of Harris County Republicans: (1) Donald Trump and (2) Devon Anderson. Anderson’s horrendous decision to jail a rape victim and indict pro-life activists certainly did not help the Harris County Republican effort in 2016. Whether you agree or disagree with Anderson’s positions, the real damage was the endless fodder for campaign commercials that she provided to her opponent. Judging Anderson by her record, she was a failed district attorney and had to go.
Unbelievably, Anderson’s campaign made a succession of errors. First, she made this video immediately after Channel 2 broke the story on Jenny, the jailed sexual assault survivor. Then, it was revealed that another survivor and a witness were jailed in order to compel their testimony. The Anderson campaign, while criticizing her opponent for “using” Jenny, deployed Jenny’s father as a campaign tool to say that he supported the jailing of his vulnerable child by the Harris County District Attorney’s Office.
You cannot encourage people to vote straight ticket with a problematic candidate like Devon Anderson on the ballot. In the past, problematic candidates have been removed from the ballot to avoid a disaster like we saw in 2016. The party ballot is as good as its weakest candidate and this was true with Anderson.
Paul Simpson’s belief that moderate, establishment Republicans could win elections in Harris County without social and fiscal conservatives is a false narrative. The biggest mistake in the campaign was to not utilize our most recognized successful brands. There are three brands that have been out for over twenty years: Conservative Republicans of Harris County (Hotze), the Link Letter (Lowry), and the Texas Conservative Review (Polland). Voters are conditioned to these brands in primary and general elections.
All three brands focus on different turnout. Hotze messages to seniors in a mail-in ballot program. Hotze’s brand is very effective and seniors expect to get his piece in the mail the way they have for over twenty-four years. Lowry’s Link Letter focuses on early voters and systematically sends the Link Letter out to well-conditioned voters. Both Hotze and Lowry have an identifiable social conservative voting base. Polland is different and I will come back to that in a minute; however, the sophistication of these so-called slates is unique.
Branding is important and Hotze and Lowry understand that social conservatives are reliable voters. The social conservatives can sway primary votes and this is where their influence has been most visible. Simpson and company have underestimated these brands in general elections and actively worked against them. The 2016 election proved this point.
Gary Polland and the Texas Conservative Review focus on election day voters. Gary’s brand is a reflection of him and is the most moderate of the three brands. Gary’s brand is influential in general elections and has a conservative Jewish following. Watching what Barack Obama did to Israel on his way out the door gives us an excellent opportunity to expand our base in Harris County. Gary is Jewish in case you did not know. All three of these brands work well together in general elections.
Simpson does not want to recognize the importance of these assets. Donald Trump certainly knew that he needed social conservatives to win the Presidency just as Simpson needs social conservatives to win Harris County. I have asked Simpson more than once what his plan is to unite the local party. He does not have one. This will not sit well with Republican candidates on the 2018 ballot. Simpson may have been a transitory candidate and the efforts to replace him are well underway. The question is will he be replaced by a candidate who can reach out to all factions within the local party. This will not be an easy task.
David Jennings analysis
Tidying up the 2016 Harris County Republican election disaster
Don, let me ask you this: do you think that Trump being at the top of the ticket had an effect on the results for Harris County Republicans?
DJ
David, I do think he had an impact, just not the way Simpson described. I think Simpson squandered an excellent opportunity to break up Dem straight ticket voting. Kevin Fulton appeared to be talking about that today from what little I heard of his presentation. Time will tell but I do think our party has an excellent chance to bridge some gaps that have been long over looked. We saw a great coalition that came together to defeat the bathroom ordinance.
I had never in my life voted for a Republican presidential candidate. (Skipped it, stayed home or voted third party since I do not vote vote for liberals, war-mongers, or tax-raisers.) Trump at the top of the ticket got me (and who knows how many others) out to the polls where I voted mostly for Republicans.
I am more convinced than ever that Trump was the only GOP candidate capable of defeating Hillary. Looks to me like the local GOP ran away from the Trump train, and paid the price.
I do not have a problem with your suggestion that the Party should use the slate makers in the general election, but this means they will also be around for the primary races, and I am completely opposed to this.
It was because of the slate makers influence that we were stuck with the two Andersons in the first place, and many other less qualified candidates have been victorious in primaries because of slate maker influence.
Doug,
I do agree that much more vetting has to occur of our primary candidates. You are right that Anderson slipped through. You are correct that we need to do a much better job on the primary process and question if Simpson can bridge the gap.
Two comments:
1. It’s ironic that single issue voters call out party leadership for failing to unite Republicans behind the Christian Taliban. Hotze, Woodfill, et al, represent a declining minority and the longer they have a say in Harris County politics, the better the Democrats will do.
2. I’ve seen no discussion about the legislature’s rollback on signature requirements to get on the ballot. All one needs to do is write a check to get on the judicial ballot. How is this going to improve vetting of candidates? It was a huge step backward.
Its not Paul Simpsons fault, its my fault. I made several life changes this year that pulled my attention away from my commitment to the HCRP. I plan to rectify the horrible losses HC sustained this election year with an all out assault on city council.
It’s my fault for being naive in thinking that my voice doesn’t matter. In truth, my voice matters. I have to start my own liberty slate ( independent from the RLC) following the model that Hotze and Lowry use to do so.
Don, Don, Don. I was there at the meeting. You and I had two very different takeaways, which was bound to happen. I read your article, and it seemed that the theme throughout, besides the fact that you despise Simpson, is that you think the downfall of the party this election cycle was there desire to NOT use the slates. I don’t think I’ve ever heard of anything worse.
Maybe I should start by asking questions:
-How is the party supposed to ‘utilize’ the three pay-to-play slates, as you suggest in your article? As Ben said in the meeting, “we would work with anyone who wanted to help.” That is proven by the offer to work with Hotze.
-Also, does ‘utilize’ mean give money? The party did not give money to anyone else, either. Matter of fact, Simpson has done something that Jared was NEVER able to do; raise money! And not on the backs of the candidates, either.
Another point I’d like to make is that the party did not interfere with the pay-to-play slates from doing anything this election. Hotze did his own mailings and robocalls.
One final thought, Polland and Lowry have their own slates and they are a for-profit operation. If they can’t sell their own products, then that’s their fault.
Just out of curiosity, how many doors did you knock on during the election?
Kelly,
I was not inspired by the message of the local party to knock on any door. I did speak to several groups about Donald Trump and his message, and my past experience with him, I think I got some converts;-) Hate is a pretty strong word, but I will say I do dislike the fact over the years I could not ever get Simpson to help with management districts, TIRZs, property taxes, crime lab, grand jury reform, or any fiscal fight that I have been involved. I have repeatedly asked Paul to help with the social conservative issues and the answer is always no.
Again, the slates are a brand and if you take them off the battlefield in an election you will lose. This was a mistake and I wanted to ask Paul if he thought it was a mistake, too? I have heard Paul’s answer, he did not make any mistakes.
Kelly, peoples perceptions of any meeting are always different. This comes mainly from peoples perspectives and I am going to ask you to do something. Paul Simpson wrote an Op-ed for Big Jolly and I will ask you to read it, look back at what I wrote and think about your comment to me. Actually, I encourage everyone to read it because this was Paul’s message before he won the chairmanship.
https://bigjollypolitics.com/will-we-let-more-cowbell-deliver-harris-county-to-the-left/
Specifically, what do you think Paul means when he writes, ” A party that advances no principles is meaningless. But a party that wins no elections is irrelevant.”
Don,
While your points are well taken, the local HC GOP could ALSO look to Rep. Valoree Swanson’s campaign for clues as to what may be improved upon countywide. I’m told that she polled better than ANY other GOP candidate in November that had a D opponent in Harris County! (I have not independently checked that.)
Thanks for all you do.
Mark
Mark,
I do think my colleague David Jennings’ fine work on the House District races certainly reflects your comment.