Before I start offering up the promised solutions to the 2016 Harris County Republican Party election disaster, I want to throw in a few more data points from the election. Many of the people I have talked to shrug their shoulders and ask me why I’m bothering to do this, telling me that it is time to admit that the county has changed from red to purple and now blue. Accept it and move on.
Not a chance!
First off, you don’t give up after losing. You figure out why you lost and work to overcome the obstacles. Second, the idea that Harris County is now a “blue” county is simply not true if you look at the data. Which is why I’ve given you a ton of data and will give you more today. Losing the straight ticket vote does not mean that Harris County as a whole is “blue”. Let’s take a look at straight ticket voting from 2006 – 2016.
In general, more Democrats vote straight ticket in Presidential years, more Republicans vote straight ticket in gubernatorial years. Nothing new there except perhaps the sheer number of Democratic votes this year. Concerning? Sure. Game changer? Highly doubtful when you dig a little deeper into the numbers. Here are a few of the factors that contributed to that increase (and an actual decrease in Straight R votes), in order of impact on the election.
- Donald Trump
- Devon Anderson
- The lack of unity by Harris County Republicans
We’ll talk more about each of those factors in the near future, especially the last one, which is really the only one we can actually do something about. Suffice to say for now that if we had been able to address #3 in August or September, I think that we could have had results similar to 2012 and a whole bunch of Republican judges would still be on the bench.
To get a better feel for what is happening in Harris County politics, we need to look at the local county wide judicial races. Very few people go to the polls to vote for specific judicial candidates, so we can use that to see if the county is truly turning blue. We can also look deeper into specific areas, such as County Commissioner Precincts.
First off, let’s take a look at the median {997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of votes that Republican judicial candidates received between 2006 and 2016:
As you can see, 2016 had the lowest median {997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} for Republican judicial candidates for the past six elections. Notice also that it was a full 2{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} drop from the 2012 presidential election. That is concerning, no question. But not as concerning as some people are making it out to be because if we remove the straight ticket votes from both parties, we get a very different picture.
In terms of contested Harris County only judicial races, this is what the totals look like over the past 6 elections:
As we all know by now, a wipeout this year. On the other hand, how would you like to be a Democrat in a gubernatorial year? Let’s remove the straight ticket voting from both parties for 2016 and see what we have:
Now let’s compare the median and average non-straight ticket voting ballots for 2012 and 2016:
While the overall results show a 2{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} decrease in median votes for R judicial candidates, the non-straight ticket numbers show a gain of 2{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}. Obviously a lot of Republican judges would be thrilled if straight ticket voting went away. Fortunately for Republicans, all of the county benches are up in gubernatorial elections. As well as all but one Family District court and about half of the rest of the district courts. So Republicans still dominate the county judiciary and there is no reason to think that is going to change anytime soon. Maybe someone can explain to me why the Civil District Court benches would have been 50/50.
We could drop down into each Congressional or State District but what we will see is predictable based upon the gerrymandering that the legislature put into place. You get yours, we get ours, everyone is happy. But since it appears that the Democrats are going to make a major push for County Commissioner Precinct 2 Jack Morman’s seat, let’s take a look at that.
As I said earlier, if that is the best that the Democrats can do in a presidential year in Precinct 2, their prospects for beating Morman in a gubernatorial year are dim, barring major changes in the picture.
Okay, that’s probably enough on the data side. It is time to start talking about what went wrong and what went right with the Harris County Republican Party’s performance. The data clearly show that the combination of Trump and Anderson did bring the ticket down but what did the party do, if anything, to try and negate that? As you can see, it wouldn’t have taken much to get a good number of our judges reelected.
Although many of us wanted a change in the DA’s office for a host of reasons, why did Devon Anderson run such a poor campaign? It certainly wasn’t for a lack of money. Regardless of what I think about her, she should have done better, which would have helped the party as a whole.
There are a lot of Republicans in Harris County demanding a change in leadership of the party. They are, predictably, angry at the results. And those on the ballot in 2018 are letting their emotions affect their judgment. But before casting aside the leadership, we need to think long and hard about what we want the future to look like.
- What will the party do to increase straight ticket R voting?
- Do we want short term gains at the expense of long term losses?
- Is there a path that will allow us to win in the short term without hurting the long term prospects?
- What can be done to build the party on the East side without losing our NW/West side base?
- Does the sheer size and diversity of Harris County lend itself to a grassroots approach or a top down approach?
- What can we do to get our State Reps to become more involved with the party?
- Should we run candidates in all races or pick only those races that are ‘ours’?
- Do we stay with an ‘engagement’ model or do we move to a principles model?
If the current leadership cannot answer these questions, then we do need to make a change. And we need to do it in the 2018 primary so that we can reclaim the county in 2020. But before we go down that path, we should give the current leadership room to make the changes necessary.
David, for your #3 above, lack of unity by Harris County Republicans, Curious who all falls into that lump? Do you think any well known talk show hosts that openly did not support Trump would be lumped in that group or are you referring to present, and even active past HCRP leadership? Thx.
Hey Melissa, long time no talk. Hope all is well.
When I say lack of unity amongst Republicans, I mean just that. I don’t listen to much talk radio anymore so I don’t know what you are referring to. I couldn’t begin to tell you the lineup at KSEV. I’m mostly talking about the new regime vs the old regime with a bit of the rest of us thrown in. I know that I couldn’t support Trump or Anderson, so I’m part of that group.
What do you think?
I believe that I mentioned quite a few months before the November election that the Republicans would lose every position. It all had to do with who the presidential candidates and the racism of Trump. Or maybe I just got lucky on my prediction.
For 2018, the Republican Party should do fine here in Harris County unless the Democrats do something different, but I don’t think they can change. Caveat, national politics may be a driving force again. The number of Black voters was slightly down, but that could change, Latinos will also watch what Trump does and they could be motivated by the top of the State ticket. But I would not hold my breath, I expect the Texas Democrats to make abortions and homosexual marriages a priority again which is a no starter. As long as the homosexuals make it a priority to kiss their behinds for them to support you in Harris County they will not make Harris County Blue.
Here in Harris County, running Annise Parker would guarantee low turn of Latinos and they were the difference.
I am compiling a list of all Latino voters in 2016 from the voter data. But there is no hurry so I am slowly working on it. I have the 2012 and 2014 data to compare with, I go name by name so that I can see the first and middle names also more work but closer to being correct. For instance the last name Bettencourt is very common in some countries in Central America.
I promised myself that I would not vote for a Republican as long as Trump is president, But, I would never vote against Chris Daniel or Orlando Sanchez. Just means I would not cast a vote for those two positions.
People like you, Chris and Orlando give me hope with the Republican party, that is you David Jennings.
You “NeverTrumpers” just don’t get it. Nobody gives a shit how many times he is accused of being misogynistic, racist, or xenophobic, It’s all BS. It is really hard to get enraged about anything political when you are out of a job.
This is all due to the huge amount of legal and illegal immigration that has occurred in Harris County and across the rest of the country. The only candidate that actually wants to do anything about this is the very person you hate – Trump. If you don’t recognize that immigration is going to kill the local Republican party, then you are not paying attention. Harris County will become a Democrat county. It already ha in many respects. When was the last time the mayor of Houston was a Republican? You want to stop the democrats? You better stop all the immigration. Otherwise, you should start learning Spanish and attending the Democrat conventions.
Tom, why not force e-verify on all business?
You can believe what you want but Trump is asking for H2B visas for one of his business as I write this. If you think that Trump will bring back jobs or actually send all those persons not legally here, back. I feel for you.
Here is the link to the H2B visas http://www.foxnews.com/food-drink/2016/12/23/trump-winery-under-fire-after-applying-for-visas-seeking-foreign-workers.html
If you think that the use of H1B visas will be stopped or even reduced, I feel sorry for you.
Trump played the part of a racist and he has a long way to go for him to prove that he is not one. But his history, also, indicates a racist past.
One does not need walls, if the Republicans that control Texas could start with things that make sense, such as require all contractors and sub-contractors to e-verify all employees. Do you think all those persons building our roads are here legally? In fact, at the minimum all governments in Texas should be required not to spend any money for workers that are not here legally.
I voted for Ross Perot, he warned us about NAFTA, but I don’t recall a single Republican congressman voting against it. I do know of some Democrats from Texas that did.
Have you ever wondered why our leaders don’t work to make sure that only citizens and legal residents count toward the Congressional Representation? Think on that.
Houston has not become a Democratic stronghold because of immigrants unless you are referring to Yankees moving south. George W. Bush received 40{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the Latino vote when he ran, that does not seem like that immigrant group is anti-Republican.
I am a Latino and talked to a lot of people, many are Latinos and many recent immigrants who are legally here. They don’t like illegal immigration any more than you do. But when the first statement from Trump is that Mexicans are racists, that leaves a very bad taste in my mouth and their mouth. I will bet money that no one can tell the difference between a person who looks Mexicans can tell whether they are legal or illegal.
Am becoming a regular reader of your blog. I would like to think of you – and myself, for that matter – as middle of the road, but that implies to some that such voters straddle the fence. Not so. The so-called right and left are where they are simply because the center has not really been defined. Maybe we can define it as that which is fair and equitable.
Like yourself, I could not and did not vote for Trump, though I didn’t vote for Clinton either; the first time I’ve refrained to vote in the presidential race since I’ve been eligible to vote, which is a long, long time.
The democrats have a golden opportunity to redefine their party and goal without the belief that only a Clinton will do, and the republicans will have to find away to get past Trump.
Perhaps I’m wrong but I see a great deal of damage coming from the fact that he is The Donald.
I don’t know where we go from here but I’ll keep watching.
Is it possible to do an analysis of the turnout by congressional or state house districts?
These mid ballot races probably affect turnout. HD-7 was won by Clinton.
The Dems will not win the house in 2018, so might it be worthwhile for them to target CD-7?
Dan Lan, I’ve already done quite a few of those if you look back to the other posts about the disaster. What analysis are you looking for?
DJ
What will the party do to increase straight ticket R voting? Why is this a question when you were so opposed to some Republican candidates?
Is there a path that will allow us to win in the short term without hurting the long term prospects? Field better candidates and promote them as a group.
What can be done to build the party on the East side without losing our NW/West side base? Explain to each group the benefits of cooperation and accepting their differences.
Does the sheer size and diversity of Harris County lend itself to a grassroots approach or a top down approach? Why do these have to be mutually exclusive?
What can we do to get our State Reps to become more involved with the party? Promote candidates that understand how a team works and pull support from those that do not.
Should we run candidates in all races or pick only those races that are ‘ours’? If we can run a viable candidate, do not let any race go unchallenged.
Do we stay with an ‘engagement’ model or do we move to a principles model? Explain?
Hi Olivia,
I voted Straight R and crossed over for a few candidates. Some people do not understand that this is possible I guess.
We agree on this. If we take out the Trump problem, we still had a problem on our local ballot with our DA. It should have been handled via the primary but it wasn’t.
We agree again but this it is easier said than done. The East side has been neglected by the party for years. I talked to Paul Simpson last week and he seems to be ready to correct this. We’ll see.
Re grassroots or top down, they aren’t mutually exclusive but in practice they are. Most grassroots activists resist any attempt to coordinate their message. Most topdown leaders resist any attempt by grassroots to influence their decision making. How do you propose we overcome that?
Promoting teamwork is key but you also have to remember that the candidates are fronting the money and putting their lives on hold. That makes for it hard to work as a team when a candidate doesn’t see a benefit to their own campaign. Any ideas on this?
What is the definition of viable? In most cases, that candidate is going to lose because of gerrymandering. We need credible candidates willing to build the Republican brand in those districts that are designed for Democrats. This will increase the total down ballot vote for Republicans, even though the candidate will lose. Tough to find a credible, viable candidate willing to do that.
As for the models, we need to determine if we are going to focus on “engaging” non-Republicans by going to community events and participating in parades or if we are going to focus on a set of core principles for all group. The engagement route is what we have been trying to do and it basically mimics the Democrats in trying to use identity groups to coalesce. The principle model goes back to a time when we said that here is a set of principles that we are for and welcome any and all who agree with us to join the fight. The problem with this model is that we get into purity tests and exclude someone that agrees with us on 4 out of 5 of our principles.
Thanks for reading and commenting.
DJ
I also voted straight R with crossover. Would the straight R with crossover votes show up as straight R in your tally? I was under the assumption, perhaps incorrectly, that a straight R with crossover was tallied individually rather than straight R.
“I voted Straight R and crossed over for a few candidates. Some people do not understand that this is possible I guess.” Do your or most analysis’s of straight ticket voting include your method of un-selecting some candidates? I do not know if the data shows this but at what point is a straight ticket vote rendered meaningless by a voter who changes a lot of votes?
“We agree on this. If we take out the Trump problem, we still had a problem on our local ballot with our DA. It should have been handled via the primary but it wasn’t.” Per your previous analysis, the DA race was lost no matter what but how many other races were impacted by it given it was a sweep year? The Trump factor seemed much more of a problem but how much of a problem?
“We agree again but this it is easier said than done. The East side has been neglected by the party for years. I talked to Paul Simpson last week and he seems to be ready to correct this. We’ll see.” If ‘East Side’ is code for hispanics, decide how important immigration issues are. How likely would it be for you to vote for a candidate stating he was all for kicking white male immigrants circa the 1880’s out of Texas? Most hispanics I know are hard working, very much against abortion, and pro-family that are not supportive of a large government. That sounds like an opportunity to me. Most recognize their trashier counterparts that arrive here by any means necessary are more of a daily danger to them than police or INS but they draw the line at voting for those that paint with a broad brush. Isn’t there room for a middle ground between those who think every hispanic should be rounded up to be sent somewhere else and those who want an open border?
“Re grassroots or top down, they aren’t mutually exclusive but in practice they are. Most grassroots activists resist any attempt to coordinate their message. Most topdown leaders resist any attempt by grassroots to influence their decision making. How do you propose we overcome that?
Promoting teamwork is key but you also have to remember that the candidates are fronting the money and putting their lives on hold. That makes for it hard to work as a team when a candidate doesn’t see a benefit to their own campaign. Any ideas on this?” As far as I have seen, most grassroots leaders were cut from the same cloth as their top down counterparts but either didn’t want to become full time politicians or did not have their egos catered to sufficiently enough by the insiders. Conversely, the top down leaders always come across as thinking they rose to power solely on their own efforts and by merit alone, a delusion of major proportions. If the top down establishment were to offer the grassroots leaders a better seat at the table, even an expanded table, and bother to listen/act upon their ideas, the grassroots leaders might be more willing to cooperate. The benefits to state leaders need to be more obvious where local candidates show up to promote them as well as the other way around, those who think it is a one way deal are not helping the status quo.
“What is the definition of viable? In most cases, that candidate is going to lose because of gerrymandering. We need credible candidates willing to build the Republican brand in those districts that are designed for Democrats. This will increase the total down ballot vote for Republicans, even though the candidate will lose. Tough to find a credible, viable candidate willing to do that.” Running a heavily flawed RINO just to secure a spot on a voting ballot is a mistake. By viable, I mean finding someone that embraces our core beliefs closely enough and is willing to put in enough effort to open doors for others even if they know they cannot win. Find a way to reward such people as part of a larger strategy.
“As for the models, we need to determine if we are going to focus on “engaging” non-Republicans by going to community events and participating in parades or if we are going to focus on a set of core principles for all group. The engagement route is what we have been trying to do and it basically mimics the Democrats in trying to use identity groups to coalesce. The principle model goes back to a time when we said that here is a set of principles that we are for and welcome any and all who agree with us to join the fight. The problem with this model is that we get into purity tests and exclude someone that agrees with us on 4 out of 5 of our principles.” If we are not going to adhere to our core principles, we might as well throw in the towel now and move to a neighboring county that is more to our liking. That kind of thinking will push us out of power soon enough if people are unwilling to fight for their beliefs, cowards always ready to run away. The rush to embrace purity testing is what has hurt our people time and again, the word compromise not in the vocabulary of too many people who hurt us in the long run. A lawyer friend interviewed to be an appointed precinct chair but was declined for the open spot simply because she would not say she was opposed to all abortions, the focus of her entire interview. A close acquaintance of mine interviewed for a different location and was turned down for an open spot because he was deemed not worthy by virtue of another litmus or purity test. In both cases, the positions remained open for years afterward, both of these people very much in line with our principles even in the areas that disqualified them.
Thank you for your thoughtful comments. We agree on many things or I wouldn’t be reading your blog.
Olivia/Greg,
Yes, if you check Straight Party and then crossover, your vote is counted as a straight ticket and is included in the numbers I use.
Olivia,
At no point is a straight vote rendered meaningless. Well, I guess if you voted straight party and then chose someone else in every single race, that would be meaningless but I doubt anyone does that. When you vote straight ticket, you make certain that you don’t miss a race and all candidates except in the races you crossover will get your vote.
The Trump factor is why Republicans lost every countywide race. The DA contributed to that but more in the way of lost motivation to vote for Republicans.
East Side is not code for Hispanics. If we were talking specifically about City of Houston races, perhaps that would apply. I live on the East Side of Harris County. When we refer to that in the context of a county race, we are talking mostly about working class voters, mostly white but certainly including all minorities. Baytown, Channelview, Crosby, Huffman, Deer Park, La Porte, Pasadena, etc. The HCRP has traditionally focused on the West/Northwest, Northeast and Clear Lake. We must engage the working class voters if we want to improve our chances in Harris County.
I think that we can improve in the Latino areas by focusing on social issues and toning down the rhetoric surrounding illegal immigration but we cannot abandon the illegal immigration issue.
I see the exact same mentality from grassroots leaders. And when they do get a seat at the table, they tend to be ‘my way or highway’ types.
I don’t understand that thought. In the first sentence, you seem to be for a purity test. In the second sentence, you say ‘close enough’. I can tell you from personal experience that most people’s definition of ‘close enough’ leads them to call people RINO’s.
DJ
“I think that we can improve in the Latino areas by focusing on social issues and toning down the rhetoric surrounding illegal immigration but we cannot abandon the illegal immigration issue.” I agree but finding a mutually agreed upon level of policy changes for immigration is not going to be easy. Hispanics have good cause to not trust outreach efforts until this concern is addressed but when so many people think the only solution is to fund buses, it will be awhile to get changes.
“I don’t understand that thought. In the first sentence, you seem to be for a purity test. In the second sentence, you say ‘close enough’. I can tell you from personal experience that most people’s definition of ‘close enough’ leads them to call people RINO’s.” Then those people need to ease up on their definitions if the party is to remain relevant. Ideological purity will continue to limit how many remain loyal members and harm recruitment but that doesn’t mean there shouldn’t be some level of agreement on major areas of concern.
“The Trump factor is why Republicans lost every countywide race.”
If that’s the case, why so many columns dissecting the 2016 Harris County election? And why are you trying to blame Paul Simpson for the debacle? Do you really think we’d have won a race or two had the party gone with a “Vote for Trump!” theme instead of “Harris County Works”?
If the slates are part of your solution, count me out. Those things are just evil, and you don’t have to look back any further than the last primary for proof. No matter how negatively you regard Paul, do you honestly think the party would have been better off with Rick Ramos? The typical primary voter neither knows nor cares who his County Chair is. But the 17{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of primary voters who care enough to bother to vote in the runoff do, and they chose Paul over Rick by better than 2:1. Are Gary, Steve, and Terry really that much smarter than a Republican runoff voter?
So that everyone can see for themselves that there was a “Trump downdraft” (to use Paul Simpson’s terminology).
I’m not blaming Simpson. That said, Simpson is in charge and the buck stops with him.
I never suggested a “Vote for Trump” theme. I have said, as have many others, the “Harris County Works” was a terrible theme and flawed from the beginning. Mostly because Harris County wasn’t working but also because you don’t run a pro-government campaign in an anti-government election cycle.
You didn’t have to have a “Vote for Trump” theme to bring out more working class voters. You could have run an anti-Hillary campaign but that would hurt Sarah Davis in 134 so the party was reluctant to do that. You could have used the themes from Trump, such as immigration, jobs, border, etc. and perhaps gotten more votes on the east side of the county.
Where have I said that the slates area the solution? No one in this county has done more than me to highlight the problems of the slates and to reduce their influence in primaries. They are not, however, “evil”. Would you rather lose general elections or would you allow them to help win?
I don’t view Paul negatively, I have much respect for his organization skills and experience in politics. I don’t agree with his decisions in this election and hope that he has a plan forward to correct his and his staff’s errors and misjudgments.
I voted for Paul over Rick and encouraged others to do the same, so the premise of your question is wrong.