Okay, so I’m not done throwing datasets at you from the disastrous 2016 election for the Harris County Republican Party. I’ll even throw in a little hope for the 2018 election this time, although those promised ‘solutions’ are still going to be a while. Hey, it takes time to talk to as many stakeholders as possible!
One of the questions asked was about turnout. I’ve already put that out there for the last 5 general elections in the county but still people want more! They want to see net turnout by state rep districts so that they can comment on the party’s allocation of resources. Okay, we can do that but it is only relevant for the 2012 vs 2016 Presidential turnout because of redistricting. Take a look.
This table is sorted by the percentage increase for each State Rep District:
Since percentages don’t win elections, this one is sorted by the increase in ballots cast:
And lastly, take a look at the same districts sorted by increase in Straight R votes:
When you look at that data, ask (at least) two questions. Where did the party allocate its resources and what was the message the party was pushing? Then ask, did their strategy work?
When I talk to people that were very involved with those decisions, I’m told that a significant portion of the resources went to SRD’s 133 and 134. Obviously we know the message was “Harris County Works” so “vote straight Republican”. I’ll let you answer the questions posed.
But all is not lost! There are some results in County Commissioner Jack Morman’s Precinct 2 that suggest it isn’t all doom and gloom for his reelection bid in 2018. Here are the results for the ‘governing’ candidates that ran in his precinct:
As you can see, Republicans won 3 of the 5 races. And it is really amazing how close Jim Leitner came to beating Vince Ryan in that precinct. And it is really, really super duper amazing that George Moore beat Sherry Matula AND had more votes than Devon Anderson. How many of you have ever heard of George Moore or even know what he was running for? Matula has fairly high name recognition in a large part of Precinct 2, so that makes it even better. One last question: which slate sent mailers into Precinct 2 on behalf of George Moore?
Morman has two full years to work on making the precinct even better for Republicans. And before you say ‘Adrian Garcia, oh no!’, look at that result for Hickman over Gonzalez. That happened in a high turnout Presidential election, one where the Democrats were focused on turning out Latinos to defeat Trump. And don’t forget to look at the turnout numbers already posted for non-presidential years. Plus, we’ll have a much stronger ticket with Ed Emmett, Chris Daniel and Orlando Sanchez running. Anything could happen in the next two years but barring something unexpected (a possible primary challenge to Greg Abbott?), the R’s should do quite well.
I’m starting to look forward to putting forth my solutions to this mess and see your reaction. There were mistakes made and we didn’t have to get slaughtered. There is hope! But the big question remains: when will the HCRP leadership accept responsibility for the disaster and will they decide to look for solutions outside of their inner circle?
Neither Here Nor There says
Mormon’s district was interesting so was Radick’s district. He who sells the best facts will win. Facts being what one believes.
The strong increase in voting in HD148, currently held by Rep. Farrar, is likely due to the referendum on selling alcohol in the Heights, which is completely located within her district.
David Jennings says
Perhaps. It is certainly a statistical outlier.
Neither Here Nor There says
Went back to look at the 2014 and 2016 election, the County Commissioner 2 seat. Not sure if Mormon did anything special as the precincts were changed and if not mistaken CC2 was made more conservative.
In 2014 most of the Republicans should win here in Harris County, if the Democrats keep doing what they always do. There is too much of a gap for the Democrats to overcome with the type of campaign or lack there off that they tend to run.
So we will have to see who the Democrats run at the top of the ticket state wide and if they don’t mess themselves by pushing their very socially liberal agenda. I recall one of the Democrats running for office that year asking about what I thought. I told him that if they thought they were going to win with Wendy and abortions he was mistaken. He then said well a Latina was running for Lt. Governor. I asked him what is her name, I knew her name, but I wanted him to tell me. I then asked him what makes you think Latinos will know that she is Latina?
I personally think that the state of the nation may have a significant impact on local races. If Trump does use a deportation force, I can see a larger turnout of Latinos to vote against Republicans. Muslims will probably be voting for Democrats as will Asians, so the Republicans probably lost some Republicans. They definitely lost some Republican Latinos.
As 2018 gets closer one should be able to get a better feel for the mood of the people.
Neither Here Nor There says
In 2018 nor 2014
Jerry Smith says
Harris County Precinct 2 needs MIKE PARROT TO RUN FOR COMMISSIONER , the best man by far. we could win this with integrity not party affiliation.
Robert Garza says
I think Adrian Garcia is done. He does not know what else to run for. I hear that a other person is running for CC2 on the Democratic side. What do you think? Morman has been slow in getting things done. Its not going to be a good for Rep this 2018.