Big Jolly Politics

politics in Harris County and Texas

Straight ticket voting changes in store for Texas?

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harris county republican party

The latest rumor going around the Capital regarding straight ticket voting is that the big three, Gov. Greg Abbott, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick and Speaker of the House Joe Straus have struck a deal. Apparently this deal will allow straight ticket voting in all partisan races except at the District Judge level. If true, and it seems very likely that it is, this change will fundamentally alter the strategy of county races.

As you probably already know, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick’s son Ryan was defeated in the Democratic sweep of Harris County last November. In 2009, then Sen. Patrick filed SB 392 eliminating straight ticket voting in judicial elections. In 2013, Sen. Patrick filed SB 103 eliminating straight ticket voting in judicial elections. Although both bills made it out of the State Affairs Committee, neither bill received a vote in the full Senate.

House Speaker Joe Straus had filed a bill in 2009, HB135, that would have eliminated all straight ticket voting, not limited to judicial elections. But that was a couple of months before he became Speaker and the bill never made it out of the Elections committee.

So there has been support of one form or another for eliminating straight ticket voting from both leaders for quite some time. Abbott doesn’t appear to have weighed in on the issue.

The current push for a change seems to have gotten momentum when Texas Supreme Court Chief Justice Nathan Hecht called for an end to it in his State of the Judiciary address to the State Legislature on February 1st.

I will say only a word about judicial selection, but it is a word of warning. In November, many good judges lost solely because voters in their districts preferred a presidential candidate in the other party. These kinds of partisan sweeps are common, with judicial candidates at the mercy of the top of the ticket. I do not disparage our new judges. I welcome them. My point is only that qualifications did not drive their election; partisan politics did. Such partisan sweeps are demoralizing to judges and disruptive to the legal system. But worse than that, when partisan politics is the driving force, and the political climate is as harsh as ours has become, judicial elections make judges more political, and judicial independence is the casualty.

There is no perfect alternative to judicial elections. But removing judges from straight-ticket voting would help some, and merit selection followed by nonpartisan retention elections would help more.

Speaker Straus immediately agreed and went further, calling for eliminating straight ticket voting altogether:

Texas House Speaker Joe Straus wants to end straight-ticket voting in all elections, he said Wednesday after Texas Supreme Court Chief Justice Nathan Hecht’s State of the Judiciary address.

“I agree with Chief Justice Hecht that we should end straight-ticket voting in judicial elections, but we shouldn’t stop there,” Straus said in a prepared statement calling for Texas to join the other 40 states that do not allow the practice.

…

Straus said that ending straight-ticket voting would encourage voters to learn about individual candidates’ qualifications and that he looks forward to working with the Legislature on the issue.

“Too often, good men and women are swept out of down-ballot offices due to the political winds at the moment,” he said.

(click here to read the article by Dagney Pruner on DallasNews.com)

Lt. Gov. Patrick agreed with Hecht about the need to eliminate it for the judiciary:

“I have spoken out on this issue many times and have introduced legislation in previous legislative sessions to end straight-ticket voting so that voters evaluate every candidate based on their principles and priorities,” Patrick said through a spokesman. “Straight-ticket voting has a tremendous impact on our judiciary and I was glad Chief Justice Hecht mentioned it in his address today. I look forward to working on this issue this session.”

(click here to read the article by Ross Ramsey on TexasTribune.org)

According to insiders in Austin (yes, I hate those anonymous quotes too but what do you do?), the leaders hit a stumbling block at the appellate and statewide levels. Thus the rumored compromise limiting the changes to the District Judge level.

If this becomes law, it fundamentally changes the strategy for county races, at least for the Harris County Republican Party. For years, the HCRP formed a “joint judicial campaign” wherein the judicial candidates all chipped in and ran as a group. Not only did this help the judicial candidates, it helped all Republican candidates. After all, when a voter hears “vote Republican” a thousand times during a campaign, it doesn’t limit that vote to judicial candidates.

Obviously there would be no more “joint judicial campaigns”, at least not in the form we have seen previously. I suppose the candidates could still pool their money and tell people that Republican judges are the greatest but would that be effective for the judges? Will people vote straight ticket and think their vote counts for the judicial positions? Most likely, candidates will have to come up with other strategies and maybe even try to run on their own merit and funding. If so, will this lead to the election of the wealthiest judges, not the most meritorious? It will be interesting.

What will the HCRP do with a significantly reduced amount of money available under one umbrella? How will it affect local officeholders, many of whom have been able to come up through the grassroots without having to raise significant amounts of money because they were able to piggyback on the judicial campaign? Will we go back to the old days of money being the primary influence?

And why exclude the appellate and statewide judicial candidates?

There are a lot of things to think about and a lot of questions to be answered before making a change to the straight ticket voting system. Gromer Jeffers, Jr. has some thoughts on the issue:

Are there unintended victims of straight-ticket voting?

Judicial candidates often complain that campaigning as a candidate in the minority party is fruitless because it’s hard to overcome the wave of votes from people who are voting based on party affiliation.

Last week Supreme Court Chief Justice Nathan Hecht said the state should end straight-ticket voting in judicial elections, which prompted Straus to call for a complete ban.

The reality is judicial candidates are obscure to voters. Contenders in the political party out of power don’t have much of a chance. But that wouldn’t suddenly change if voters were forced to make specific choices in every partisan race.

That’s because polls show over and over again that the main motivator for American voters is party identification. There are few truly independent voters left in this country; most identify with one polarized party or another.

Hecht’s desire to have judicial elections free of straight-ticket voting misses the larger point: Judicial candidates should run in separate nonpartisan elections. That would force voters to examine those candidates from a different lens and shorten the ballot in other election years.

(click here to read the article by Gromer Jeffers, Jr. on DallasNews.com)

I hope that our legislators think about this issue long and hard before changing it.

Ending straight ticket voting for the judiciary is not the solution

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Every two years, people get worked up over the way we elect judges in Texas. This year is no exception, with Sen. Dan Patrick prefiling a bill that would eliminate straight ticket voting because it supposedly harms “good” judges. He’s not the only one – Mike Tolson has a quote in the Houston Chronicle from  former Texas Supreme Court Justice Scott Brister, who doesn’t like straight ticket voting:

“In a close county like Harris County is now, being an incumbent doesn’t help you,” Brister said. “The odds are 50-50. You leave your practice and will be making less money, and you have to be constantly worried whether you will keep the job. If you lose after one term, all your clients are gone to somewhere else and you have to build your practice all over again. That makes it real difficult to convince someone to run.”

Methinks Mr. Brister needs to look again at the results – incumbents won across the board in Harris County. Plus he apparently thinks that once elected, you should be there forever, seeing as how you’ve “given up” your client base and all. Ridiculous.

Look, if you want to reform the way judges are elected, there is a very simple way to do it. Move their elections  from November to May and make them non-partisan, just like municipal races. And in counties as large as Harris, divide them up into the County Commissioner precincts. It ain’t rocket science.

But it will never happen because political parties rake in most of their cash from the judicial candidates. And I suspect that straight ticket voting for judges will survive for the same reason. After all, if you aren’t asking voters to vote straight ticket Republican judges, there is no need for a joint judicial campaign, thus no need to force the candidates to pony up their life savings to fund it.

Separating judges from straight ticket voting in November elections will not decrease the odds of getting a “bad” judge or three, it would actually give more influence to special interest groups and candidates with deep pockets. Bad idea.

Harris County Early Voting sets records, R's in good shape

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As predicted, Harris County voters did set a record for most votes cast during the early voting period. A total of 700,216 ballots were cast in person at the 37 early voting locations spread out around the county. That is an increase of 3.2{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} over the previous record of 678,312 set in 2008. The number of absentee ballots returned during the 12 days of early voting was 66,310, an increase of 19.6{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} over the previous record of 55,446 also set in 2008. The combined total of 766,526 represents an increase of 4.5{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} over 2008.

As we saw in 2010, there is an enthusiasm gap between traditional Democratic areas and traditional Republican areas in terms of votes cast in person. Here is an overall look with each polling location ranked by Increase or (Decrease) in ballots cast:

2012 Early Voting in Harris County

Those red/blue tiles represent the party of the State Representative District in which the poll location lies. Here is another view:

2012 Early Voting in Harris County

I might be alone in this but to me that shows a huge enthusiasm gap and is a very positive sign for the Harris County Republican Party. Obviously, these aren’t 100{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} districts for either party but if you take the up/down in the aggregate, I think that you can get a general idea of where this election is heading. The net movement from blue to red districts is roughly 57,000 votes.

If you glance at the 134 locations, you can see the effect of the Sarah Davis/Ann Johnson battle, especially that West Loop location, which is up 61{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}. I have no explanation for the 40{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} increase a the Kashmere location – I can’t think of a race or issue that is hot in that area. Sen. Dan Patrick’s SD7 is dominating turnout, as usual. Say what you want about him, he gets the vote out.

I doubt that election day is going to change what I think will be a strong R showing. Notice that I didn’t say sweep – I remain hopeful for Sheriff candidate Louis Guthrie but there does seem to be a strong crossover vote for the incumbent, Adrian Garcia, if you talk to a lot of Republicans, as I do. Here are the straight ticket on election day numbers from the past five elections:

Obviously, 2006 was an outlier – recall that the big race that year was the four way battle for governor between Rick Perry, Chris Bell, Grandma Strayhorn, and Kinky Friedman. And 2010 was a bit different because you had Bill White on the top of the ticket – many Republicans voted for him because he was perceived as a moderate and he won Harris County. I’m guessing that R’s will return to their camp and you’ll see more Republicans turn out than Democrats.

Just because I say it is going to be a good day for R’s doesn’t mean that I’m not still encouraging people to get out and vote. I’ll be phone banking tomorrow and hope that every conservative Republican that reads this does the same. Here are the locations for the victory centers if you can volunteer an hour or two of your time:

[table id=11 /]

Take nothing for granted, get ten people to the polls on Tuesday, and ask them to vote Straight R. Your grandchildren will thank you.

Get out and vote straight ticket Republican!

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The Harris County Republican Party continues its get out the vote efforts:

 

HCRP Banner
Support Our County Commissioner & Constable Candidates
Get Out and Vote Early!

 

We all know how critical the Presidential race is for the future of our nation, but there are also critical down ballot races right here in Harris County.  These positions will affect several daily aspects of your life so it’s critical that we have conservative representation.  Recently, the HCRP sent out e-blasts highlighting the importance of electing Republican Judges and other down ballot races. Now, I’d like to draw your attention to our qualified County Commissioner and Constable candidates. Please support the candidate from your district and forward this email to all you know.  Please vote straight Republican to ensure victory in these down ballot seats.

 

County Commissioner Pct. 1

Chuck Maricle

Chuck Maricle
County Commissioner Pct. 3
Steve Radack
Steve Radack
713-465-800
County Commissioner Pct. 4
Jack Cagle
R. Jack Cagle
Constable, Pct. 1
Joe Danna
Constable, Pct. 2
Chris McDonald
Constable, Pct. 3
David Cruzan
Constable, Pct. 4
Ron Hickman
Constable, Pct. 5
Phil Camus
Phil Camus
832-776-1361
Constable, Pct. 8
Phil Sandlin
Early voting is underway and runs through Nov 2.  Election Day is Tuesday, Nov. 6th.
For a list of early voting times and locations, please click here.
PLEASE REMEMBER TO VOTE STRAIGHT REPUBLICAN.
Also, your HCRP still has critical Get Out The Vote efforts underway.  Please consider making a generous donation to help defeat Obama, and the other liberal Democrats here in Harris County.
Sincerely,

Jared Woodfill
Chairman, Harris County Republican Party

 

Every Vote and Every Race Matter this Year!!!

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Ed Hubbard

I know … you’ve heard this all before.  And, if you’re a reader of this website, you probably have absorbed this statement deep into your DNA.  But I want to share a couple of thoughts with you to, in turn, share with friends here and in other parts of the country who may not yet “get it.”

The “Undervote”

In 2008, the GOP lost countywide races in Harris County, including most of the judicial races that year, for the first time in over a decade.  Those losses had consequences, and still are having consequences in our county government and our courthouses, which must be reversed in this election cycle.  But many of those races were decided by a just a few hundred votes because tens of thousands of Republican and conservative voters did not vote straight ticket, and did not vote all the way to the end of the ballot.  This phenomenon is called the “undervote.”  Even in 2010, when we won all of the countywide and statewide races on the Harris County ballot except for Governor, the margins of victory at the bottom of the ballot (where the judicial races are listed) were close because of  the undervote in those races.

Friends, you get the local government you don’t vote for.  This year, as you go to the polls remember that, and vote—either straight ticket or all the way down the ballot.  If there is a specific race in which you don’t want to vote for the GOP candidate, or don’t want to vote for either candidate, you can always go through the list after you’ve voted straight ticket, but before you confirm your vote, and remove or change your vote in that specific race—it’s that easy with electronic voting.  But don’t just stop with the races at the top of the ticket.  Remember, if conservatives really believe in a limited federal government and returning power to individuals and communities, then we have to reassert responsibility over our local government—and that starts with voting in the races for local offices.

And that point leads to my last point on the local ballot, and another reason to vote all the way down to the end of the ballot:  there are important referendums at the very end of the ballot that affect HISD, HCC, and Metro.  Please vote in these races, and vote “no” or “against” the bond referendums, and “yes” or “for” the Metro referendum (because of the wording of the Metro referendum, a vote for the referendum will stop Metro from diverting funds away from county and local mobility projects to continue funding expansion of the misguided light-rail project).  Don’t let the undervote decide these referendums!

The National Election

We all are focusing on the national election, but we here in Texas know that the fate of the Presidential election is really out of our hands now.  Unless a political earthquake suddenly hits the state that no one foresees, Romney will win this state, Ted Cruz will win the Senate race, both houses of our state legislature and our statewide courts and agencies will remain under Republican control, as will our Congressional delegation.  The only concern I have about Texas in this cycle is whether all of the Electors that we chose at our state convention will vote for Romney when the time comes.

And I am concerned about the Electors because my larger concern now is about how close this election may be, both on the Presidential level and at the Congressional level.  Currently, Republicans not only control the House of Representatives, but we hold the majority of 33 state delegations within House.  The control of some of these delegations, like Illinois, is razor thin.  We cannot afford to lose a majority of these delegations, even as we may retain control of the House as a whole.  Here’s why—it is not inconceivable that this race could end up as the third race in our history to be decided by the House of Representatives; and if so, the House votes by state delegation, with each delegation casting one vote (see Article II, Section 1 and the 12th Amendment, of the U.S. Constitution).  Given the lateness of the date when the Electoral College meets in each state to vote, and depending on how the word “immediately” in the 12th Amendment would be construed and applied, the Congress that may decide this election may be the new Congress we elect on November 6th.  The party that controls the majority of the delegations will control that vote and decide who becomes President.

Given the current polls, it is not inconceivable that Obama and Romney could tie at 269 Electoral Votes—one less than the majority needed to win the election.  This could happen if Romney were to win all of the states that have been shown as in his column, and he wins North Carolina, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and Iowa; while Obama wins all of the states that have been shown as in his column, and he wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire.  A tie would put the election into the House.

The election also could be thrown into the House if Romney were to win all of the states plus New Hampshire (or loses Iowa and New Hampshire, but wins Wisconsin), giving him 273 Electoral Votes; but then four or more of the GOP-selected Electors choose to vote for some third person rather than Romney.

I hope that neither of these scenarios comes to pass, and that Romney wins decisively, and that the Electors we chose vote as we have entrusted them to vote.  But, we must be prepared for all potential outcomes, including the scenario that the Presidential election could be thrown into the lap of the new Congress that takes office after New Year’s Day but before Inauguration Day.  Therefore, please encourage your friends across the country to vote not only for Romney and their GOP Senate candidates (because the Senate will vote for the Vice-President if neither ticket wins a majority of the Electoral Vote), but also for their Republican candidates for Congress as if the Presidency will depend on it—it just may.  We must retain control of at least 26 delegations to assure a Romney Presidency if the election goes to the House (and we need 51 Senators to assure Ryan is elected as Vice-President).

As for those of you who are GOP Electors in states where your vote is not automatically bound by state law to the winner of the popular vote, don’t breach our trust.  Vote for Romney when he wins your state—the Presidency and our children’s future depend on your fidelity to those who entrusted you with this honor and responsibility. And those of you who are friends of persons who have been entrusted with this duty, please do all you can to ensure that your friend fulfills his or her duty correctly.

San Jacinto Republican Women open Pasadena Victory 2012 office

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As Harris County Judge Ed Emmett noted in his remarks yesterday, Southeast Harris County has become a hotbed of Republican activism. A great example of this activism is the San Jacinto Republican Women’s Club and their growth the past couple of years. There was a great turnout last night as the SJRW opened their Victory 2012 office on Fairmont Parkway in Pasadena.

Judge Emmett highlighted the campaigns of David Pineda and Robert Talton. On Pineda, Emmett reflected on his own first run for state rep and the similarities – he was also 28 years old, his campaign also centered on knocking on doors (in Emmett’s case, 19,404, not that anyone counted), and he was also given no chance to win. Well, win he did, and with the help of volunteers at the SJRW phone bank, so will David Pineda.

I was happy to see the Judge introduce Robert Talton and discuss how important that race is to all Harris County citizens. As I have said, Talton fears no one and will really help in the effort to clean up Harris County government. I, along with the King Street Patriots, tried very hard to set up a debate between Mr. Talton and the current County Attorney, Vince Ryan. Ryan’s campaign would have no part of it – apparently, they don’t want citizens to see the stark contrasts between the two men. There are a lot of important races on the ballot but if you haven’t found a candidate to work for, please contact Mr. Talton’s office and volunteer and donate.

Judge Emmett’s parting words were about the importance of voting all the way down the ballot to be certain that all Republican candidates win. He didn’t mention it but the best way to do this is to vote straight Republican. I know that some of you don’t like straight ticket voting but it is the single best way for Republicans to win. Estimates are that this year’s straight ticket percentage will be around 70{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} – we need Republican voters to win that battle. Look, if you have a cousin or brother-in-law that you just have to vote for and they are Democratic, no problem – vote the straight R ticket at the top of the ballot, then scroll to Cousin Vinny’s name and vote for him. It isn’t difficult and will insure that down ballot Republicans win their races.

It is awesome to see the enthusiasm so high 50 days out – let’s keep it going and win in November!