As predicted, Harris County voters did set a record for most votes cast during the early voting period. A total of 700,216 ballots were cast in person at the 37 early voting locations spread out around the county. That is an increase of 3.2{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} over the previous record of 678,312 set in 2008. The number of absentee ballots returned during the 12 days of early voting was 66,310, an increase of 19.6{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} over the previous record of 55,446 also set in 2008. The combined total of 766,526 represents an increase of 4.5{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} over 2008.
As we saw in 2010, there is an enthusiasm gap between traditional Democratic areas and traditional Republican areas in terms of votes cast in person. Here is an overall look with each polling location ranked by Increase or (Decrease) in ballots cast:
Those red/blue tiles represent the party of the State Representative District in which the poll location lies. Here is another view:
I might be alone in this but to me that shows a huge enthusiasm gap and is a very positive sign for the Harris County Republican Party. Obviously, these aren’t 100{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} districts for either party but if you take the up/down in the aggregate, I think that you can get a general idea of where this election is heading. The net movement from blue to red districts is roughly 57,000 votes.
If you glance at the 134 locations, you can see the effect of the Sarah Davis/Ann Johnson battle, especially that West Loop location, which is up 61{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}. I have no explanation for the 40{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} increase a the Kashmere location – I can’t think of a race or issue that is hot in that area. Sen. Dan Patrick’s SD7 is dominating turnout, as usual. Say what you want about him, he gets the vote out.
I doubt that election day is going to change what I think will be a strong R showing. Notice that I didn’t say sweep – I remain hopeful for Sheriff candidate Louis Guthrie but there does seem to be a strong crossover vote for the incumbent, Adrian Garcia, if you talk to a lot of Republicans, as I do. Here are the straight ticket on election day numbers from the past five elections:
Obviously, 2006 was an outlier – recall that the big race that year was the four way battle for governor between Rick Perry, Chris Bell, Grandma Strayhorn, and Kinky Friedman. And 2010 was a bit different because you had Bill White on the top of the ticket – many Republicans voted for him because he was perceived as a moderate and he won Harris County. I’m guessing that R’s will return to their camp and you’ll see more Republicans turn out than Democrats.
Just because I say it is going to be a good day for R’s doesn’t mean that I’m not still encouraging people to get out and vote. I’ll be phone banking tomorrow and hope that every conservative Republican that reads this does the same. Here are the locations for the victory centers if you can volunteer an hour or two of your time:
[table id=11 /]
Take nothing for granted, get ten people to the polls on Tuesday, and ask them to vote Straight R. Your grandchildren will thank you.
Good analysis. Good luck to all the Republicans on this year's ballot!
The increase at Kashmere is from a low base, in any event. The traditional early site at Moody Park is closed this year, so perhaps some Heights/near north voters went over to Kashmere rather than the church which was substituted for Moody Park. Or maybe OFA has a sharp team operating in 5th Ward.
Thanks Mainstream. That makes as much sense as anything I could come up with.
I noticed you failed to mention in the same KHOU & Mr. Stein’s Exit Poll showed Ted Cruz also behind due to crossover votes. Here is what we learned about the poll:
KHOU INTENTIONALLY MISLED VOTERS!!! Data buried in the infamous “KHOU Stein” poll indicated the actual number of voters who already voted revealed the following information results:
“… 7{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of respondents said they had already voted. The poll was conducted Oct 11-27 [by which time] the 7{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} already voted number [was] way off. But of those who had voted, (starting at question 19, Romney up 56-37, Cruz 58-33, Guthrie 47-42, Anderson 58-28 … “ weighted numbers across the poll shame on KHOU and the untrustworthy professor!”
The numbers of democrats that they used far exceeded the numbers of republicans. Look at page 6. But now we know the truth. Louis was leading by 5. Stay tuned to know where the money came from for this fake misleading poll. http://app1.kuhf.org/KUHF_KHOU-Oct{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}202012_Survey_frequencies.pdf
Does Adrian Garcia and Robert M. Stein (person who conducted the exit poll) know each other from way back? Check for yourself. Here is a conference in 2006.
Flyer
[http://www.hgactrans.org/safety/safetyconferenceslides.htm]
Video
[http://www.hgactrans.org/safety/video/Opening_Adrian{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}20Garcia_Jack{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}20Steele.wmv]
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Here’s a link to AG’s personnel file with HPD:
http://www.scribd.com/mobile/doc/111741098
AG was caught keeping a pound of weed in his brief case for about a month.
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Here is a picture of AG and some of his command staff. There is nothing wrong with wearing the “turbines”, however it’s in direct violation of his dress policy. Is it okay for the sheriff and his command staff to violet his dress policy when pandering for votes?
http://i1284.photobucket.com/albums/a572/chuckf2012/Headgear_zpsa149fa70.jpg
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This was posted on the Harris County Employee blog this morning. It shows staffing in the jail is also bad-
“Is staffing really improving? Well I guess it depends on who you ask. Just today there were 42 deputies/jailers held over from nights to work days. By 9am, the announcement was made asking for deputies/jailers to volunteer to stay over on the evening watch or be forced.”
http://pub27.bravenet.com/forum/static/show.php?usernum=2240981722&frmid=4&msgid=1055540&cmd=show
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It is time for a new “Sheriff in Town” for Harris County, Texas. CLEA members can attest to witnessing HCSO wasting its budget over the past four years with current Sheriff Adrian Garcia… some on hiring political hacks and catering to special interest groups. Voters need to remove the current administration which has covered up the millions of tax payer dollars blown. HCSO has contractors who don’t even speak English working inside the jails around the inmates. The HCSO has created an environment for special consideration aimed at contracts to politically connected friends of the current Sheriff. Sheriff Adrian Garcia has hired an entire media staff to spin the news so it is favorable to him. Sheriff Adrian Garcia even proudly stated on Oct 25, 2012 at a LULAC sponsored fundraising dinner that he is “hiring as many friends and family” as he can. Qualifications should matter, the best service to the public should matter; not allegiance to him.
The nearly $400,000,000 a year budget just doesn’t seem to be enough. Federal funds have been misspent, millions in the Inmate’s Commissary Trust Fund money is missing and has been covered up. He has created a multitude of special units just to make media hype then later stripping them down after the news fades. Dozens of personnel assigned in the wrong slots/assignments to hide the lack of real numbers in real assignments. He has created a huge bureaucracy like a mushroom – very top heavy and there are not as many officers actually patrolling or investigating crimes. It is a shell game – it is a scam on the public.
Sheriff Adrian Garcia has spent tens of thousands of tax payer dollars on advertising HCSO programs which coincides with the election cycle – these ad buys feature him and his name and are in areas that the Sheriff’s Office doesn’t patrol or investigate crimes, but are in areas that are primarily targeted by his campaign.
Sheriff Adrian Garcia abuses his own departmental policies without consequences. Here is an example: According to HCSO Policy 311, Section II, A: “Deputies while in uniform or on duty will not take an active part in their own or another person’s campaign for an elective position. This includes, but not limited to, making political speeches, passing out cards or other political literature, writing letters, signing petitions, soliciting voters or making public derogatory remarks about candidates for such elective positions.” And also in Policy 311, Section II, C: “Employees will not use their position in any manner for the purpose of furthering their own or another’s political campaign interests”. Yet we’ve all seen the TV ads with him wearing the HCSO uniform. It is not his department; it is the citizens of Harris County.
The morale of the employees is very low and has been in a free-fall since he took office. The citizens -all citizens of Harris County, deserve better service from their Sheriff and his deputies.
Scott, I didn’t mention the KHOU poll at all, so I’m not sure what you are referring to. Also, I cannot find the information you referenced regarding 7{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} already voting from your link.