Big Jolly Politics

politics in Harris County and Texas

Wesley Hunt loses major endorsement in CD-7

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In a major turn of events in Harris County, Dr. Steven Hotze has rescinded his endorsement of Wesley Hunt in CD-7 and has endorsed former Bellaire Mayor Cindy Siegel.

I started hearing rumors about this on Thursday. Yesterday, Dr. Hotze called and confirmed that it was true and sent me the video above.

We had a long conversation about this and basically, Dr. Hotze thinks that he was misled by people he had trusted. He told me that he didn’t interview anyone else for the endorsement. Then, after making his endorsement and sharing it with thousands of Republican primary voters via his Conservative Republicans of Harris County mailer, he started to learn things about Hunt that disturbed him.

  • The fact that Hunt has never voted in a Republican primary.
  • The fact that Hunt voted in the 2008 Democratic primary. Hunt now claims that he was part of Rush Limbaugh’s “Operation Chaos”, which doesn’t make sense at all since Hunt has missed Republican primaries in 2010, 2012, 2014, 2016 and 2018. If he was a committed Republican, why miss those primaries?
  • The fact that Hunt’s beliefs do not line up with Dr. Hotze’s beliefs in critical social conservative areas.

If you don’t know the backstory on this, it’s probably helpful. Karl Rove and Kevin McCarthy went to central casting to find someone that fit their description of the perfect candidate to win back CD-7. Minority? Check. Military service? Check. Can raise funds? Check. Meets age demographics Rove/McCarthey prefer? Check.

Problem is, when you go to central casting to get your candidate, you end up with an actor. Someone that can play a role but has no core convictions. Want him to play another role? Get him another script.

I admire Dr. Hotze for doing this and admitting his error. I don’t know if it is too little, too late, but perhaps it will prevent Hunt from winning outright and then voters in CD-7 can have a redo in the runoff.

Cindy Siegel is an excellent choice for Dr. Hotze. A long time leader in Harris County Republican politics, she has a strong conservative record and is known for her ability to get things done. I suppose she is a bit outside of Rove/McCarthey’s preferred age group but there is something to be said for actual experience in politics.

Good luck to the voters in CD-7. Make a wise choice when you vote. Texas needs CD-7 to be Republican again.

Click here to see revision 6 of the Combined Endorsement Matrix for Harris County Republicans. 

More problems with Harris County’s Early Voting

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This in from former Harris County District Clerk and current Republican candidate for Tax Assessor Collector Chris Daniel:

2/18/2020

For Immediate Release

ISSUES WITH VOTER ROLLS AND EARLY VOTING

Multiple Election Judges are reporting issues with the IPad system of the County Clerk Office: Voters who have already voted by mail early (or been sent a ballot by mail) are NOT showing up in the system.  This allows for a voter to have their vote recorded twice under the current practices of the clerk and the election judges, without reconciliation.

This is a recurring problem that took three days to fix this past fall during the City of Houston elections.

Further, MULTIPLE PEOPLE ARE LEFT OFF THE VOTER ROLLS

In an egregious error between both the Tax Assessor Collector and the County Clerk Offices, Voters registered with the Tax Office are in some cases NOT showing up in the poll books at the early voting polls.  This is not only slowing down the tasks at the polls by having to have the election workers to call the Tax Office and verify these voters with voter registration cards in hand, are indeed valid voters, but again opens the door for multiple votes to be taken at multiple polls without reconciliation (since they are not in the poll book to begin with).

It’s time we had competent officials in charge of our voting system and poll books.  Every vote must count and no extra votes should be taken, nor should any voter be denied the proper right to vote.

Who: The County Clerk and Tax Assessor

WHAT: Registered Voters Not included in poll books and mail voters not being listed as having already voted or sent a ballot

When: NOW through early voting

Contact: Chris Daniel 281-682-8710, texas.daniel @gmail.com

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Chris also sent this information:

Discrepancies Reported From Early Voting Locations

February 18, 2020

Reporting Locations:

1. SRD 141H Octavia Fields Public Library
2. SRD 150L Lone Star College Creekside
3. SRD 146F Fiesta Mart on Kirby

Missing Mail Ballot Data

Election Judges at #1 and #2 above both reported voters entering the polling place carrying their mail ballots with carrier envelopes. The voters wanted to surrender their mail ballots and vote in person.

When election staff scanned the voters’ driver’s licenses, the voters were in the county clerk’s system. However, the system did NOT show that the voters had requested mail ballots. The voters surrendered their mail ballots and voted in person.

If the county clerk has not properly loaded the mail ballot information into their system, then these voters could have voted by mail and again in person. The same problem was noted for the first 2.5 days of early voting for the November 5 election.

Missing Voter Information in the Electronic Poll Books

All three locations above reported voters entering with current voter registration cards and proper photo ID. However, the voters could not be found in the county clerk’s electronic poll book system. Election workers contacted the county voter registrar and confirmed that the voters were legally registered voters in Harris County and eligible to vote in this election. They then contacted the county clerk who advised the election workers on which ballot style to present to the voters and directed the election workers to place these voters on the “omissions form.”

The problem with this is that placing the voters on an omissions form does not place them into the county clerk’s system as having already voted in this election. It is possible for these voters to vote multiple times in this election, following the same process as reported above.

Combined Endorsement Matrix for the HCRP Primary

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If you voted today, this wouldn’t have helped you anyways. For the rest of us, it is sometimes useful to compare the various endorsements around Harris County. So, here you go.

PDF Version, revision 6

It’s harder than you think to do this. If you see an error, let me know, if you think a group should be added, let me know.

One thing is clear and I’ll try to expound on that is that there is far less money being raised and spent by the traditional groups on the R side in Harris County.

Obviously I’ve focused on the party in the past, so I suppose it’s worth a comment on the HCRP Chair race. I don’t see a lot of activity compared to past elections, thus I must conclude that current Chair Paul Simpson will hold on. Although I still don’t know why he wants to. Go figure.

The HCRP Executive Committee seems less focused on winning in November than slapping Paul upside the head for his choice of consultants. Weird but hey, it is what it is. As for the resolution that the EC passed forcing Paul to put a disclaimer on their website that the HCRP was not affiliated with that particular consultant, the disclaimer has not been put on the website. I asked the HCRP Comms Director about that and the response was “We are working on a statement from the Chairman to the precinct chairs addressing the resolution. Once it is finalized I can get that to you”.

Not a good look for a resolution that was passed two weeks ago. Just sayin’.

In the immortal words of Holly Hansen, a writer at The Texan:

Entering phase 1 of “silly season” 2020, (Primary Elections,) I’d like to encourage folks to stop and consider what you’re about to say. Are you making a persuasive argument? Or just lashing out?

I’d suggest name calling (or saying things like “you’re just too stupid to understand,”) or using photo-shopped images or mean caricatures, are just not very persuasive.

More later. Out.

Higginbotham is the best choice for JP 5-1

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Note: Edited to correct spelling error

 

Justice of the Peace place 5-1 is one of the few areas of the county left that has a reasonable chance of electing a republican in November.  The primary is contested, and the residents of the district have a change to remove a very poor judge.  The Houston Bar Association solicits input from bar members to evaluate judicial performance, and in the category of “Follows the law” the current judge, Ridgway, was rated last insofar as excellent response, tied for last in needs improvement, and last in net excellent minus needs improvement.  The actual percentages are listed below.

Excellent Needs Improvement Net
Bates 38.1 19 19.1
Brown 43.8 18.8 25
Burney 55.8 14 41.8
Carter 57.6 8.7 48.9
Delgado 47.3 5.5 41.8
Ditta 45.6 7 38.6
Goodwin 56.7 6.7 50
Korduba 50 19.6 30.4
Patronella 60.7 3.8 56.9
Ridgway 33 22.6 10.4
Risner 38.1 20.6 17.5
Rodriguez 35.5 22.6 12.9
Stephens 60 11.4 48.6
Vara 44 8 36
Williams 42 14 28
Willamson 43.5 14.5 29

These results are in line with my personal experience in his court.

The dismal evaluation shows that Ridgway is a poor judge and not worthy of reelection; which raises the question of who is a better alternative, Wolfe or Higginbotham?  In the primaries, it’s important to vote keeping two considerations in mind.  First, is the candidate reasonably aligned with your views, and second, does the candidate have a chance to win in November.

Of these two, Hibbinbotham is the better choice.  Wolfe is a vulnerable candidate in November.  Wolfe is presently an elected member of the HCDE.  I don’t share the viewpoint of those who attack the HCDE, and will write about that at a later time.  His presence on the HCDE easily could be turned into an asset in the general election if he was not bearing the burden of the credible harassment allegation and public report associated with the hiring of a secretary for HCDE.  Anyone can make a mistake, but this senseless course of action is so recent as to be possibly insurmountable come November.

Higginbotham makes a better candidate in November.  She is an experienced attorney so is not vulnerable to attacks that she would have to learn the legal system and how to evaluate the law.  She is actively campaigning so already has some degree of campaign structure in place. While these aren’t the check boxes for what makes a good candidate, they are the check boxes needed to be an electable candidate for a justice of the peace position. The residents of this district are best served by having Hibbinbotham victorious in the primary.

 

 

 

Will HCRP Learn from the Runoff Election?

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Primary elections are less than a month off, and the party is going to have to choose whether to stick with Simpson or go another route.  In the past I’ve voted both for and against Simpson, and am currently undecided on what to do this year.  While countywide elections, save perhaps district attorney, are likely to be a wipe out again the election has enough races that will be close enough that prudent action by HCRP could make a difference.

David wrote a great piece about the County Chair race.  While it’s hard to argue with the logic he uses does the special election result teach us about how a different path forward could lead to different results?  I would argue it does, and that until Simpson, or a successor, treads the new path that the county is going to be in an ever deepening blue ocean.

Looking at historical data for HD 148 shows the following results:

2020 special election – DEM 65.47 REP 34.53 (D+30.94)

2018 – DEM 67.91 REP 32.09 (D+35.82)

2016 – Uncontested

2014 – DEM 60.29 REP 39.71 (D+20.58)

2012 – No republican

2010 – DEM 58.68 REP 41.32 (D+17.36)

With 2016 uncontested we can’t assess how much is a response to Trump and/or Beto-mania in 2018.  However, we can look at a random county wide race to glean that data.  Using the top Judicial District race on the ballot shows the following results:

2018 – DEM 54.78 REP 45.22 (D+9.56)

2016 – DEM 52.42 REP 47.58 (D+4.84)

2014 – DEM 45.71 REP 53.55 (D-7.84)

Comparing HD 148 to the top judicial race shows a 2014 to 2018 difference of:

Judicial District DEM+17.4

HD 148 DEM+15.24

With the two values similar, it looks like Trump/Beto accounted for roughly a 16 point swing, and less reliably one could use the 2016 results to argue that Trump is 72.8% of the swing and Beto the other 27.2% of the swing.  If we apply the those modifiers to HD 148 that would give a predicted DEM vote in the 2020 runoff election as DEM+ (20.58+(0.72*16)) = DEM +32.1.  This is in line with the actual results, especially considering the incumbent was not running for reelection, and the special election having a low turnout.

Luis LaRotta’s team did as best as they could in the election.  Not only were they active campaigning, but they had a bevy of endorsements.  It didn’t move the needle.  That tells us that continuing with the same path forward campaigning wise is not going to be effective.  So what can HCRP learn from the election and how can they do better?

If the goal of the county party is to organize the party then we shouldn’t expect to prevail in the close races.  The county party apparatus has to adapt if we are to succeed in the future.  The saying that the county party can have principles or money but not both has to be looked at differently to move forward.  The county party needs both; finances to be able to fund operations, and principles to motivate volunteers to come out and participate.

To that end, HCRP needs to do two things.  One, they have to make a concerted effort to call out and end fighting over any self proclaimed dichotomy within the party.  I’ve long beat the drum of the party being stronger when it is a big tent, and that needs to be a priority for the HCRP.  It’s okay to disagree with the Log Cabin Republicans on things like the various bathroom bills, but still cooperate with them where there is common ground.  Working together where we agree not only achieves more, but it also creates the goodwill needed to smooth over the tensions that come where there is disagreement.

Second, HCRP needs to make a conscious decision that organization isn’t as important as candidate support.  An organized and hard working HD 148 campaign didn’t achieve anything other than what was expected.  HCRP needs to decide they are going to play an active support role to the candidates, but take the lead from the candidates on how to win the race.  Winning in Sarah Davis’ district is a distinctly different task than winning in Briscoe Cain’s district.  Rather than try to impose some uniformity in action HCRP is better advised to imposing a commitment to help the candidate win how the candidate plans on winning.  The ground game is ultimately the candidate’s responsibility.  HCRP needs to assist, not try to lead, in such efforts.  Facilitate volunteers and communication with the candidate, and then get out of the way and stand at the ready to assist as requested.

The road to countywide victory isn’t found in countywide campaigns.  The road to victory is found in district by district campaigns that move the needle in ways appropriate to the specific districts.  Retaking some of the close seats lost two years ago gives the mouthpiece needed to propagate the republican message.  A focus on assisting those candidates, in ways the candidates believe is best suited to the district, is the lesson that needs to be learned from the special election.

We have a contested primary for HCRP Chair

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paul simpson keith nielsen
Paul Simpson and Keith Nielsen

The filing deadline has passed and we have some interesting primary races in the Harris County Republican Party. I’ll take a look at them one by one, starting with the race to see who leads the party. Incumbent Chair Paul Simpson is being challenged by long-time grassroots activist Keith Nielsen.

I’m not sure why Paul is running again, it’s a thankless job that requires almost full time hours and pulls you away from your family and paying job. I’m not sure why Keith is running either. But I suppose someone has to do it, right?

The biggest complaint that I hear about Paul is that Republicans have been wiped out in the last two elections. If you blame Paul for that, then no amount of logic is going to change your mind. If that is you, then Keith is a great alternative for you. He’s energetic, passionate, outgoing and is willing to work with anyone.

But is it Paul’s fault that Republicans were wiped out? What are the duties of a party chair? Do changes in the demographics of the county matter?

No, it is not the chair’s fault that Republicans were wiped out. The job of the chair is to organize the party and Paul has done that quite well. In fact, I have never seen the party better organized, managed and financially sound. And I think any objective person would agree with that. The staff is very professional, active and responsive to precinct chairs. I’ve heard nothing but good things about the new Vice-Chair, Dana Myers. The committees are active and functioning, which has not always been the case.

We’ve known for years that changes in the demographics of the county would affect Republicans, which is one reason we advocated for changes in the way the party was being run. And under Paul’s leadership in 2014, we had a countywide sweep, don’t forget about that. Most people thought we had until 2022 or even 2024 before losing the county. But along came Donald Trump in 2016 and Beto in 2018 and the process speed up. Paul Simpson had nothing to do with that and you are fooling yourself if you believe otherwise.

One of the latest criticisms of Paul is that we do not have a full slate of Republican judicial candidates. They say that Paul didn’t do enough outreach and didn’t hold a traditional petition signing party. They are wrong, as usual. Here is a list of the outreach the party did to try and attract quality candidates via Genevieve Carter, HCRP Communications Director.

RECRUITMENT/TRAINING EFFORTS:
Wednesday, July 24
Judicial Candidate Orientation Session

Hosted by HCRP. Our Judicial Screening Committee was also involved. The panel included Supreme Court Justice Jeff Boyd, as well as RPT/SREC/TRCCA recruiter Cat Parks. (We have a testimonial from her saying it was the best recruiting effort in the state of Texas.) Facebook link

  • We worked with RPT on recruiting candidates to attend the orientation session.
  • Worked with Leadership Institute and our HCRP Candidates Committee to help organize candidate trainings to encourage and give candidates more tools and resources.
  • We sent mass text messages to our network encouraging/asking people to run for office.
  • General feedback we received early from candidates and their campaigns was that they did not want to pay for a big signing party, as done in the past, that used to cost about $25K, so HCRP planned the other events (listed below).

EFFORTS TO GATHER SIGNATURES:

  • Starting in the late summer/fall, we sent continuous emails directly to the judicial candidates to keep them updated on events and opportunities to gather signatures hosted by our Republican clubs and other organizations.
  • Sept. 7, HCRP had a judicial signing section with tables available specifically for candidates to gather signatures at our Annual Campaign Kickoff at Cadillac Bar.
  • Starting in the spring, HCRP organized monthly happy hours around the County where we invited judicial candidates to bring petitions.
  • HCRP blasted emails in November to all Precinct Chairs asking for each to pick up petitions at our offices and gather signatures from their friends and family.

HCRP PETITION SIGNING EVENTS:

  1. Wednesday, Oct. 2 Joint Happy Hour & Petition Signing Party with HCRP & HYR – Facebook link approx. 50
  1. Saturday, Nov. 2 2020 Judicial Candidate Petition Signing Party at HCRP HQ Facebook link approx. 250 attendees
  1. Monday, Nov. 25 CD-7 Precinct Chair Candidate Forum at HCRP approx. 60 attendees
  1. Sunday, Dec. 1 HCRP Glorious Way Church Petition Signing Event Northwest Houston area approx. 125 attendees
  1. Tuesday, Dec. 3 HCRP Christmas Party & Judicial Signing Event at Cottonwood (provided a drink ticket for any attendee that signed petitions) Facebook event approx. 125 attendees
  1. Thursday, Dec. 5 HCRP Kingwood Holiday Happy Hour & Judicial Signing Event approx. 25 attendees

Also, she pointed out that no candidate failed to file due to a lack of petition signatures and that several candidates had over 1,200 signatures. The bottom line is that the party had its best ever organized recruitment process and it isn’t the chair’s fault that candidates do not want to be identified as Republicans or want to be on the same ballot as Donald Trump.

We know what needs to happen for Republicans to win again in Harris County. We first have to stop being the party of old white folks. We have to start being the party of inclusion. We have to return to Ronald Reagan’s mantra of “The person who agrees with you 80 percent of the time is a friend and an ally”. We have to identify and groom young conservatives of all colors, faiths, LGBT, and any other person that agrees with us 80% of the time.

If we know what to do, then why aren’t we doing it? Selfishness and perceived power and entitlement. A recent example is the mess that Josh Flynn created at the HCDE (click here for more). All in the name of personal ambition and entitlement. We already had two young, dynamic candidates in that race but hey, my daddy is a rep, I’m a white male, get out of my way. And that district screams for a young, dynamic conservative that isn’t a white male.

The old time power brokers are all old, white males and do not want to cede any of their perceived influence and now one of them is now donating to newly elected Democrat judges even as he rails against Paul’s leadership. Yes, Gary Polland, I saw the $1,000 you donated to Judge Natalia Oakes and the $750 you donated to Judge Michelle Moore. Our consultant base only knew how to win primaries and not general elections. Consultants with fresh ideas and experience winning in purple districts are ignored. In short it is a mess.

The current chair, Paul Simpson, is already working to address every issue I pointed out, as well as having the party’s finances in the best shape ever. Before you make an emotional choice, become informed on the issues.