Primary elections are less than a month off, and the party is going to have to choose whether to stick with Simpson or go another route. In the past I’ve voted both for and against Simpson, and am currently undecided on what to do this year. While countywide elections, save perhaps district attorney, are likely to be a wipe out again the election has enough races that will be close enough that prudent action by HCRP could make a difference.
David wrote a great piece about the County Chair race. While it’s hard to argue with the logic he uses does the special election result teach us about how a different path forward could lead to different results? I would argue it does, and that until Simpson, or a successor, treads the new path that the county is going to be in an ever deepening blue ocean.
Looking at historical data for HD 148 shows the following results:
2020 special election – DEM 65.47 REP 34.53 (D+30.94)
2018 – DEM 67.91 REP 32.09 (D+35.82)
2016 – Uncontested
2014 – DEM 60.29 REP 39.71 (D+20.58)
2012 – No republican
2010 – DEM 58.68 REP 41.32 (D+17.36)
With 2016 uncontested we can’t assess how much is a response to Trump and/or Beto-mania in 2018. However, we can look at a random county wide race to glean that data. Using the top Judicial District race on the ballot shows the following results:
2018 – DEM 54.78 REP 45.22 (D+9.56)
2016 – DEM 52.42 REP 47.58 (D+4.84)
2014 – DEM 45.71 REP 53.55 (D-7.84)
Comparing HD 148 to the top judicial race shows a 2014 to 2018 difference of:
Judicial District DEM+17.4
HD 148 DEM+15.24
With the two values similar, it looks like Trump/Beto accounted for roughly a 16 point swing, and less reliably one could use the 2016 results to argue that Trump is 72.8% of the swing and Beto the other 27.2% of the swing. If we apply the those modifiers to HD 148 that would give a predicted DEM vote in the 2020 runoff election as DEM+ (20.58+(0.72*16)) = DEM +32.1. This is in line with the actual results, especially considering the incumbent was not running for reelection, and the special election having a low turnout.
Luis LaRotta’s team did as best as they could in the election. Not only were they active campaigning, but they had a bevy of endorsements. It didn’t move the needle. That tells us that continuing with the same path forward campaigning wise is not going to be effective. So what can HCRP learn from the election and how can they do better?
If the goal of the county party is to organize the party then we shouldn’t expect to prevail in the close races. The county party apparatus has to adapt if we are to succeed in the future. The saying that the county party can have principles or money but not both has to be looked at differently to move forward. The county party needs both; finances to be able to fund operations, and principles to motivate volunteers to come out and participate.
To that end, HCRP needs to do two things. One, they have to make a concerted effort to call out and end fighting over any self proclaimed dichotomy within the party. I’ve long beat the drum of the party being stronger when it is a big tent, and that needs to be a priority for the HCRP. It’s okay to disagree with the Log Cabin Republicans on things like the various bathroom bills, but still cooperate with them where there is common ground. Working together where we agree not only achieves more, but it also creates the goodwill needed to smooth over the tensions that come where there is disagreement.
Second, HCRP needs to make a conscious decision that organization isn’t as important as candidate support. An organized and hard working HD 148 campaign didn’t achieve anything other than what was expected. HCRP needs to decide they are going to play an active support role to the candidates, but take the lead from the candidates on how to win the race. Winning in Sarah Davis’ district is a distinctly different task than winning in Briscoe Cain’s district. Rather than try to impose some uniformity in action HCRP is better advised to imposing a commitment to help the candidate win how the candidate plans on winning. The ground game is ultimately the candidate’s responsibility. HCRP needs to assist, not try to lead, in such efforts. Facilitate volunteers and communication with the candidate, and then get out of the way and stand at the ready to assist as requested.
The road to countywide victory isn’t found in countywide campaigns. The road to victory is found in district by district campaigns that move the needle in ways appropriate to the specific districts. Retaking some of the close seats lost two years ago gives the mouthpiece needed to propagate the republican message. A focus on assisting those candidates, in ways the candidates believe is best suited to the district, is the lesson that needs to be learned from the special election.
fyi – posted today.
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/02/06/rachel-bitecofer-profile-election-forecasting-new-theory-108944
This article makes sence and toss in Ms. Bitecofer’s in between the lines of wisdom points Republicans dont caught it. They are not logical to converse with. They are usually running to the door, or stand-offish, sitting most off to the sides ready to run out the doors when the see the attention is center stage. They sit or stand with converstations going and their attentions on their i-phones.
They always miss the points to engage with diwn to earth human thoughts, I noticed that most this time in HD148. Lui and his hard core of volunteers was hungered to express, have persons to engage them head on so each side could take away a feeling of connections. What did you notice at any of these gathers of othet GOP races? Heads in iphones under the tables.
Good day…we are going to lose because we keep candidates in protective modes, disingages and at a distance and for only a minute to talk with anyone…dull!
Good luck to my former neighbors in Houston and Harris County. A nice note on the vitality of the city…I was able to sell my house for my asking price without advertising it.
Lots of stars in the sky out here.
Where did you move to?
Lots to be said for looking up to the starry nights. Reminds you how grand nature is.
Keep in touch.
The biggest problem the GOP has is that they think the Democrats are stupid.
Running a supporter of Trumps immigration policy isnt going to win many Hispanic votes in HD 148, even if they put an Hispanic face on those policies.
Running a candidate that supports discrimination against LGBT persons isnt going to win many votes in HD 148, even if they get Log Cabin to support them.
Sarah Davis has hung on because of policy, not party organization. She probably would have lost in the GOP primary if not for Dem crossover votes. Dokupkil would have lost by 25 percent in 2018.
Democrats and independents arent dumb. The GOP keeps campaigning as if they are.
Rather than preparing for a majority Mexican/Central American majority in Texas with policies that helps protect Dreamers and condemns the excesses with border enforcement, the plan is apparently to find a Hispanic (sometimes a Cuban American or Spainish American one, or like LaRotta a Hispanic whose entire messaging and campaigning screams “Gun show attendee”) to put up as a candidate. It doesnt work.
For African Americans, its the same thing. Diamond and Silk? Come on folks.
For LGBTQ Americans, the plan is to run to Log Cabin for an endorsement while supporting discrimination against Gay people, and even supporting discrimination against LCR within the GOP. This undermines LCRs credibility, making their endorsement a joke. It also makes the argument for the need for anti discrimination protections for LGBT people, by showing that anti LGBT bias exists.
For suburban women, instead of responding to their rejection of GOP policy, the GOP just seeks to put up some random female face on the policies.
And I wouldnt count on the removal of Party line voting in Harris County to be of much help. Yet another gimmick that people will see through. And it will hurt the GOP downballot as much as it hurts Democrats.
Running for office in Travis, Harris, Bexar, the Valley (and increasingly in Ft Bend, Williamson, Hays, Collins, etc.) As if you are running in Comal or Montgomery counties hasnt worked but yet, the GOP keeps coming back to the same old failed strategies. All while enforcing party discipline at the expense of the party.
The problem is policy. Fix the crisis at the border in a way that is humane. Support dreamers and dont use children as hostages to other policy proposals, enact some common sense gun control, ban discrimination against LGBT people, expand Medicare. All of these have been supported by Republicans in other states and have been successful in helping the GOP win.
Changing chairs at the top will do little to fix the problem of “the other party has more voters than we do and the margin is growing”. Unless the change at the top is matched with a change in policy and a pragmatic attitude by GOP primary voters.
Again, Democrats and Independents arent stupid.
Tom in Lazybrook, you are clearly a Democrat activist, but your inaccurate assumption or implication that Luis LaRotta “supports discrimination against LGBT persons” has no basis in fact. You just assume that everyone who is Republican has the same policy positions contrary to your views on issues dear to your heart, and that is just not accurate. See, e.g. Sarah Davis.
Don in Lazybrook….I agree with you up to the points. I will not agree on thiese thoughts you wrote “Fix the crisis at the border in a way that is humane. Support dreamers and dont use children as hostages to other policy proposals, enact some common sense gun control, ban discrimination against LGBT people, expand Medicare. All of these have been supported by Republicans in other states and have been successful in helping the GOP win.”
Here are my thoughts as a wife, grandmother, and a Community Activist: 1) we are continually fixing the crisis brought on us for the laxness of both ruling Parties in Texas for the last 50 years, the ignorance in border towns and kicking the CANS down Latinos back alleys. We Latinos took great advantages of the lack to which which the ruling Party did not want to inforce its Federal Immigration laws and local policies within Texas. The Parties taught us one dear lesson “disregards in a disrespectful way” the American way of their high regard for rule of law. Lets do the Latino way, lets take over silently in education within their schools, lets take over its manufacturing markets in car industry, stores, home building, commercial building, heating and air conditioner reparing business, landscaping and medical fields. Latinos ran off the other side of American dreams and renamed it to Hispanic Indepence American Dreamers. Did I miss any other dominant businesses where Latinos has not yet entered. Just wait Engineering is coming down the road, Tom! I seems you are open to that thoughts?
2) Dreamers? Tom, dreamers are doing fine and I am for all the rights to be given to them in form of GREEN CARD holders only with 5 year rights to become citizens and NEVER bring in their parents to getting those same rights. NO! The parents will forever be left holding the green cards because of being Illegals. Stop the piggy backing citizenships. We owe them nothing other than the MEDICAID Gold Card to which they should pay into the families. The children once they turn 18 years old gets the green card then 5 years out the rights (only the dreamers) to put in their papers for citizenship.
3) Gun control…Nope! I am satisfied with Texas gun laws, people need to be educated what it represents to us all, and those fighting it should realize are we teaching people to respect us and our laws? What do you expect.
4) Ban discrimanation in all walks of life, but dont force me to accept anything contrary to the laws within my Bible but yet as Latino cristianos we will still look at each other as equals human beings.
5) Expand Medicare? The only parts for us is eyes and dental. The rest is working fine. What else would you like to see expanded, please share with us Tom of Lazybrook?
I dk hope others would share
Thanks
The local GOP Is already a big tent.
The nearby precinct chairs and activists don’t agree on which candidates or issues to support.
We all agree on a pro American and conservative direction; so we work together and overlook the differences.
Thers a lot of strategizing here. Mostly moot as someone has to step up and lead.
Don’t like someone? Run against them.
Want to change the direction of the Republican Party? Be a precinct chair, and bring your people out into the party.
Tom in Lazybrook:
Are you a democrat plant? The purpose of the opposition republican party is to offer a different more sensible perspective than the democrats. Your formula for winning appears to be to surrender. If republicans supported your positions, they would need to do nothing. No need to field candidates or vote. The dems will implement everything you want at great speed, plus some socialist policies you may not want.
Bernadette’s prospective on the situation is much more thoughtful. Latinos as a whole are industrious and are moving up rapidly from employee to boss or owner, especially in the trades. They too are seeking and achieving the American Dream. They do not need, or as I suspect many don’t want, to be treated as victims to be supported and manipulated by a “benevolent big brother government of ” I know what is best for you” ivy league elitists.
I have two latino members of my immediate family. Their views are much more in line with conservatives than the socialist activists now controlling the democrat party. There are signs of a measurable move of minorities to the support of Trump. The republican’s challenge is to elect a congress to support him. Winning back local urban governments is not possible at this time.
Latinos are more likely to support him. Blacks are far more entrenched in the Democratic Party, but there is a indication some of them are also moving to the support of Trump.
Don so why are Mexican looking folks described as drug dealers, rapists, murders, calves as large as melons, or as your president recently said they are animals. I did not include all the names that have recently been used to describe people that look like me.
They are industrious, they are hard working, they tend to be social conservatives, but they know when a party does not want them. Don’t have to call us disgusting names too often for us to understand that the Republicans hate people that look like us.
Please don’t bring up, that they are referring to those that come here illegally, neither you or anyone I know can tell who is here legally or illegally by looking at us.
If I took ownership of the denigration I get from the dems like you do from actual true descriptions of illegal aliens that have no regard for our borders, demand accommodation through our benevolence and refuse to assimilate I can feature being as openly hostile to native Americans as you are. You’re hostility to us is worn on your sleeve as a badge of honor. You hate us. We get it. You obviously are not happy here. You are free to leave you know.
Do you think we don’t see the double standards of not enforcing borders for two generations and allowing multiple DWI convicted illegals to roam freely among us while the rest of us have to have a valid ID just to walk into a municipal building? The ridiculous funding of welfare that provides three meals a day for illegals through our schools? Having to provide every social initiative in Spanish?
I’d like to see scorched earth enforcement of our immigration laws to weed out the riff raff. You’d prefer open borders. Your motives are gaining power through overwhelming our system in a nice democratic fashion. Mine is maintaining the status quo I grew up in where every generation paid its share to maintain said order.
I don’t know why leadership in both parties are allowed to exploit illegals but they do. And illegals don’t seem to mind since they have to know what’s ahead when they make their journey and they keep coming. Dems want voters and repubs pander to the Chamber of Commerce for cheap labor. It’s not right but it’s reality. Meanwhile the rest of us have to make the choices we make because of it. That’s why I left my home town. It ain’t my reality anymore and I wanted to leave behind the hostility proud angry latinos such as yourself exude.
Why hasn’t Texas made E-Verify mandatory? Why would I leave Danman, my family has been in what is the United States before this county rebelled from England.
You don’t make much sense as to the Native Americans, if you bothered to learn you would realize that most Mexican looking people have about 30% or higher Native American blood.
By us, you mean Trump lovers, you are right, why would I love anyone that thinks of people that look like me as animals?
So you think that people are not here illegally don’t have to show and Id to enter a municipal building, of course they do.
Do you think White people that are here legally, don’t drive while their licenses are suspended for DWI?
Dan you sure have a lot of hate toward people that look like me, and you wonder why people like me have deserted the Republican Party.
Two generations surely you jest, people have been crossing that border since the 1848. If you do some research you would find that before they started it making harder to cross, they would come and then go back. In fact NAFTA increased the flow, Ross Perot warned us of that. Do you know why I picked 1848?
As a good White Republican friend of mine tells me, I would like to send one of the lazy white riff raff for every hard working Mexican that is in this country.
Dan, because of people like you Harris County turned Blue much sooner than I expected, I would not be surprised if Texas doesn’t become like California. Arizona is already getting there.
Enjoy where ever you are moving the brown looking folks will be there soon. They can even be found in Heaven and in Hell.
It is only about la raza, eh Manny? I am so glad I don’t have to carry that load. I bet I’m darker than you too.
Manuel: I guess for the same reason republicans are referred to as white privileged, deplorables, racists, etc. You gave one reference to latinos I have never heard. If you heard the entire statement by Trump, he was specifically referring to gang members, not all latinos.
situational audio capabilities or perhaps ‘no comprende blanco basura’
My Dear Manuel Barrera, gracias por tener el tiempo y contestarnos. Thank you very much for answering us back on your thoughts. To solve all these Manuel, your thoughts, mine thoughts too, Tom’s and Don’s. There are many others in the Party of the GOP that don’t have a clue to where to begin speaking about strong issues. Here is a plan that I would love for you Manuelito to be my second or 1st hand (it wont matter but we lead together and get it done). The plan is we will have the GOP office (certain ones which you and I will elect) others from the judicial candidates from the past, some from all walks of life within the communities and other political parties too. We will bring them together and read a sub-group of (1) one table leader and 6 under that table topic leader. They on their own will call their own committee together and decide on what date they will meet for that week. They will meet (2 twice) in that month just after work. They will find their own locations and time best for them, private office, restaurant or cafeteria (in a corner where they can eat too) and each committee group leader will be furnished with 5 topics to be discussed and the leader is to report back the general consensus of their personal feelings they came about to access as A GROUP IN WHOLE. Then its analyzed, digested again by a private group that will over see all questions being asked…this private group is task to come up with the next 5 questions. This will be done for 6 months, then 1 person from each group will be chosen by its table leader to represent their group at another round table to be open through out the Republican Party in Houston and all…ALL Candidates, GOP’ers, Federal Republican Ladies groups, sitting Representatives will be invited to come and questions and answers will come from this group (that was made up from all walks of Houston communities).
Manuel, I am wiling and committed to doing it … you and I lets meet. Let’s show the Party what we have been trying to say all these years…years and they can seem to comprenderlo. Lo haremos entonces? Would you do it…just meet. You and I to plan it out…I will bring one other or maybe two that will have to be helping too. We bring from inside, outside and all races, and walks in life including some with green card holders what will become American Citizens shortly, even Middle Easter too, gays and all…Lets make it about living human people..its about us all Manuel, Don Sumners.
Manuel I am very political connected and I understand a lot, trust me on that. I am fair minded and very straight forward, I don’t sell my actions, thoughts and behavior to appease any. But I do like to prove a point and in this conversation there are points to be discussed openly and to understand once and for all. I too am tired (cansada). What do you say? send me a message to “[email protected]” we will meet for lunch or after work. Adios…bye It is the only way or forever hold one’s peace and be quiet.
FWIW, I don’t think any party can thrive in the long term if they do not listen first and speak only sparingly. Both parties in general do a lot of talking and not so much in the listening department. Listening to the prospective client’s wants and needs will yield better results in the long term than telling the client what he/she needs.
Focusing on “what message to deliver” before listening first sounds a little like coming up with a solution before the problem is clearly defined. It is the classic case of “cart before the horse”.
That is a pretty tall order. Getting out to meet all of the constituents isn’t easy or comfortable for that matter, but all voters want to know what is in it for them.