Big Jolly Politics

politics in Harris County and Texas

Robert Miller at the Greater Houston Pachyderm Club

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Robert Miller, chair of Locke Lord’s Public Law section, at the Greater Houston Pachyderm Club.

I’ve wanted to meet Robert Miller, chair of Locke Lord’s Public Law section, for quite some time. Not only is he one of the top lobbyists in Texas, he writes the most informative blog (View from the Gallery) on the Texas Legislature that know of. So when I heard that he was going to be the featured speaker at the Greater Houston Pachyderm Club’s weekly meeting yesterday, I saddled up and headed into the big city. And I’m glad I did – he is chock full of knowledge about politics in Texas and was able to add clarity to the results of the recent elections.

First off, just to make sure that you know that he knows what he is talking about, he wrote this on September 4th, two months before the election:

At this point, I see the Democrats picking up +/- 7 seats giving them 55 seats to 95 for the Republicans.

And that is exactly what happened. I should’ve headed to Vegas…

The catchphrase from his speech was “you can’t swim against the tide of demographics”, used to illustrate that Republicans cannot continue to win elections if the base remains “aging white males”. He pointed out that Texas is a majority minority state and that Latinos will be a 50{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} majority in the near future.

Another focal point of his message was that bad candidates lose. He noted the Republican losses in the Missouri and Indiana Senate races, using Todd Akin and Richard Mourdock to prove his point. He even went back to 2010 and reminded us about Christine O’Donnell and Sharron Angle.

Locally, I was happy that he agreed with me that Harris County Republicans over-performed. He is not as optimistic as I am that we can keep the county from turning blue, pointing out the changing demographics. I agree to a point, that point being that Harris County Republicans have an opportunity to reach Latinos and that it is not written in stone that they will continue to vote Democratic. Obviously, the leaders of the party have to change and that is not going to be easy, as I noted here. And we also have to change our rhetoric about illegal immigration, which is going to be even harder.

Mr. Miller thinks that we cannot change our rhetoric until we solve the issue of illegal immigration, noting that we are not going to deport millions of people and that part of the solution must include some type of legalized status. He stated, correctly in my opinion, that the rhetoric surrounding the issue is killing the Republican Party.

As I listen to various conservative talk radio and television shows, it is apparent that the battle to “solve” the illegal immigration problem is going to be rough. Already, Rush Limbaugh is demagoguing the efforts to “solve” it, noting that after Reagan gave 3 million people amnesty, the share of the Latino vote in the next election for George H.W. Bush actually dropped. If that happens, it happens, but I agree with Mr. Miller that until we “solve” it, we have no chance of lowering the volume and temperature of the rhetoric.

One of the most interesting topics was the upcoming legislative session. Mr. Miller thinks that Speaker Straus will be reelected easily, estimating his base at 85, consisting of 30 Democrats and 55 Republicans. As for the Senate, he expects it to be very conservative because Lt. Gov. Dewhurst has announced that he is running for reelection and appears to be trying to get the far right primary voters to back him. That’s too bad, but I guess I’ll save that for another day. Mr. Miller also thinks that Gov. Perry wants to run for President again in 2016, and will run again for Governor to help in that cause. Again, that’s too bad, but lets do that in another post. The bottom line is that Mr. Miller thinks that the Senate will be in the driver’s seat and send a lot of conservative legislation over to the House, which is also more conservative this session (see Bob Garrett’s piece here).

The one thing that Mr. Miller does not think will be addressed is funding for public education. He thinks that the judge in the lawsuit will rule the current system unconstitutional, and his ruling will be immediately appealed, eventually ending up in the Texas Supreme Court. And Mr. Miller thinks that they too will rule it to be unconstitutional, requiring a special session in the fall of 2013 or the spring of 2014 to address the issue. So don’t expect any major tax reform to come out of the 83rd regular session – rather, they will wait for the special session to handle it. Very interesting.

I really enjoyed Mr. Miller’s election recap and his insight into the upcoming legislative session, as well as meeting him. If you aren’t attending these types of luncheons, you’re missing out! It is always a good way to meet people and find out what is happening in the community.

Ed Emmett at the Downtown Houston Pachyderm Club

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Harris County Judge Ed Emmett, also chair of the Texas Republican Party’s Victory 2012, was the featured speaker at the Downtown Houston Pachyderm Club’s weekly meeting Thursday.

Harris County Judge Ed Emmett

For his efforts, he received standing ovations before AND after his talk and question/answer session. That is pretty rare with this group, known as much for challenging speakers as applauding them. Don’t believe me? Make the trip to the Spaghetti Warehouse next Thursday at noon when Harris County Dept. of Education Trustee Roy Morales is featured. Heh.

Judge Emmett addressed a wide range of issues and then took about a half hour of questions from the overflow crowd. His message about the upcoming election was very positive, predicting a county-wide Republican sweep because there are far more Republican signs on his morning walk in West U than Democratic ones. Hey, it’s probably as good a method as most local polling. But seriously, and I agree with him, there seems to be an enthusiasm gap in Harris County between the D’s and R’s, and most of us are betting that that gap turns into far more straight R votes than straight D. One of the questioners challenged him on the enthusiasm level, saying he was disappointed that Ted Cruz wasn’t on the air bringing excitement to the base – the questioner thought that Cruz should be making up for the lack of presidential interest in the race. Interesting point.

One of the things that Judge Emmett is trying to do with the Victory centers, in addition to turning out the vote this cycle, is to identify Republican voters. He told the crowd that the huge turnout in the Democratic primary in 2008 allowed the Democratic party to easily identify their voters and they were able to target them more efficiently. He hopes to continue the effort after the election – far more voters vote Republican in the general election than in the primary and if we can identify who those voters are, we can maximize Republican efforts in the future.

After recapping the current election cycle, Judge Emmett implored the club to support Republican legislators in the upcoming session. He stated, accurately, that there are many funding problems that need to be addressed, specifically the Texas Department of Transportation. If their funding isn’t restructured, they will be out of funds to build new roads in two years – in essence, they will be filling potholes but not addressing future transportation needs. And in public education, we need to support Sen. Dan Patrick as he grapples with special interests and media that are not friendly (to say the least) to Republican efforts to keep their budget under control.  He also noted that mental health issues have been put “out of sight, out of mind” and turned over to the criminal justice system, increasing costs. He suggested that by addressing that issue, we could save a lot of taxpayer money in the criminal justice system.

On METRO, Judge Emmett was unusually candid, saying that their vision and at grade light rail just wasn’t working and that they must look at alternatives to their current plans, mentioning increased Bus Rapid Transit, as well as using current rail lines for commuter rail, augmenting that with bus service. It is hard for me to understand why METRO has ignored his expertise in transportation issues but ignore it they have. Of course, they’ve ignored everyone else that disagreed with their frivolous spending on light rail, so I shouldn’t be surprised.

Judge Emmett is the unusual politician that isn’t afraid to talk about public investment in infrastructure. I say unusual because Republican primaries have become a race to see who can cut the most, in most cases without any idea of what they are talking about. Judge Emmett warned that if we neglect to invest in upgrading our ports and major highways, the Texas Miracle could become the Texas Stagnation. There is a lot of wisdom in that comment but the libertarian influence on the Republican Party in the primaries makes this a very difficult mine field.

On the Astrodome – heh, nothing new here. Look, that monstrosity needs to be demolished and it needed to be done yesterday. But Judge Emmett thinks there is one more plan possibly out there to save it and favors letting voters decide because there is so much outstanding debt on it. I say that it won’t be cheaper to demolish it tomorrow than it is today, and our Commissioner’s Court needs to have the stones to make that call.

All in all, it was a very good way to hear the county judge speak to specific issues, fellowship with like minded Republicans, and have a good meal under $10. Beats a sharp stick in the eye. If you are in the downtown Houston area on Thursdays at noon, do yourself a favor and drop by.

 

Greater Houston Pachyderms to talk Tort Reform

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Tomorrow’s meeting of the Greater Houston Pachyderm Club should be very, very interesting. Pat Kiley will be the featured speaker on behalf of Texans for Lawsuit Reform.

As you are probably aware, there is a move within the conservative Republican ranks to pull back on tort reform. And TLR itself is one of the reasons for the move, as they have strayed far from their core mission and have tried to become influential in other areas, such as illegal immigration. It appears that Gov. Perry is an avid supporter of suing.

So come on out and ask the TLR rep some tough questions.

Please join the

Greater Houston Pachyderm Club

When our Speaker will be

Pat Kiley, Texans for Lawsuit Reform

 http://www.kileyadvisors.com/pk.aspx

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

11:30 a.m.

Tony’s Restaurant

3755 Richmond Avenue at Timmons (click here for map)

$25.00

Website: GreaterHPC.org

Facebook: Greater Houston Pachyderm Club

Bob Price at the Downtown Houston Pachyderm Club

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Bob Price answers questions from the Downtown Houston Pachyderm members.

TexasGOPVote.com’s Bob Price was the featured speaker at the Downtown Houston Pachyderm Club on Thursday, 8/9. He spoke about:

  • Mitt Romney’s potential VP choice
  • Ted Cruz’s victory
  • Local elections in November

On Romney’s VP choice, Bob gave a rundown of the pluses and minuses of each of the candidates thought to be in the running. At the time, it appeared to most that Rob Portman (R-OH) and so there was a lot of conversation about what he meant to the ticket. Bob wasn’t particularly fond of Portman’s bid, saying that he lacked in the excitement department. Well, Mr. Romney must have heard Bob because two day’s later he picked Paul Ryan (R-WI) and the excitement scale went off the chart.

On the Cruz win, Bob was realistic and noted that it was a broad coalition of people that had voted for him, not any one group. He even noted my recap of the race, which was much appreciated. Bob sat this one out as far as picking a candidate because he knew we had two good candidates and preferred to watch both from a distance.

On the local elections in November, Bob is concerned, as Republicans should be, about getting Republicans to the polls and then getting them to vote straight R. He pointed out that current Harris County Sheriff Adrian Garcia was the top vote getter in 2008, topping the total of County Judge Ed Emmett by 37,000 votes. In this election cycle, it appears that the Democrats in the county will not be motivated to get to the polls as they were in 2008 but we cannot sit around and bank on that perception – if we do, our candidates could go down in flames. We need to work together and have a major GOTV push, along with educating voters that they can (and need to) vote straight R and then cross over down ballot if they have a specific Democratic candidate that they want to vote for. Many voters still are not aware that you can do this.

I was pleased to see a few candidates at the meeting and disappointed that more weren’t there. It is absolutely necessary for down ballot candidates to rally the base and put them in a working mood. Hopefully, more candidates will start participating in these small club meetings very soon. Otherwise, their hard work in the primary could very well have been wasted.

If you haven’t been to a Downtown Houston or Greater Houston Pachyderm meeting, you should try to get to one. They are fun, informative, and you will meet a lot of like minded people. In the next two weeks at the Downtown Houston Pachyderm meeting, you’ll be able to hear Terry Lowry (ahem) or me! That’s right, Terry Lowry, he of the party purification wing, will be the speaker this coming Thursday, 8/16. Lord have mercy, I wish I didn’t have another luncheon already scheduled. I’d love to hear him answer questions about keeping precinct chair positions vacant because he doesn’t like a candidate’s personal lifestyle. But alas, I can’t make it. Perhaps someone will pick up the ball and ask him a few tough questions. I’ll be there on the 23rd and have a special treat for all those Cruzbots that hate me for choosing David Dewhurst. I really wish a wuss named PolitiJim would have the guts to attend instead of hiding behind his keyboard. I tell ya, it is weird to have a stalker at the age of 53 and being a grandpa and all! And I promise, you can ask me any question and I’ll answer it without dodging. So make plans to be there on August 23rd at noon!

Downtown Houston Pachyderm Meeting 7-26-12

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Capt. Dan Moran (USMC, ret.) addresses the Downtown Houston Pachyderm Club

Well, sometimes, people disappoint you. Or, in this case, disappoint me. I wasn’t certain that the Downtown Houston Pachyderm Club was meeting today because there was no information on the website or Facebook, but I took a chance and drove downtown anyway. Fortunately, they were meeting. Hey, I’m a member in good standing (I guess, even though I never get emails from them, even after paying the dues), so, you know, why not make the 45 minute drive?

Well, to be honest, maybe I shouldn’t have made that drive. You know, I’ve supported that club for some time. I’ve also supported the Kubosh brothers and still will – they’ve done a bang up job with this club and other issues in Houston. Until today, but I guess everyone deserves a mulligan.

At any rate, I made the drive, paid for parking, paid for the very good meal, and what do I get?

People attacking a young military veteran simply because he supports Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst to be the next US Senator from Texas. Not just any veteran, but Marine Capt. Dan Moran (Ret.). Capt. Moran was severely injured in Iraq and has had to suffer insults from the Ted Cruz campaign for months. I had to shake my head today as once again, he was attacked simply because he supports Lt. Gov. Dewhurst.

I guess that the good news is that no one called him deformed, as other high profile Cruz supporters have done. Today, they wanted to know why Lt. Gov. Dewhurst didn’t overturn the “Rose Bush” bill and why he didn’t singlehandedly secure the border.

I’m not sure I can address these issues without using expletives. Randy and Michael are smart guys and I don’t have a clue as to why they don’t understand that the “Rose Bush” bill is a CONSERVATIVE tradition!!!!! Drives me freaking nuts when people don’t understand that! What the heck do we need to do to drive that point home?

And then former candidate for Pct 4 Constable Robert Lozano couldn’t accept the FACT that Texas has spend hundreds of millions of dollars trying to stop a FEDERAL issue! Drives me freaking nuts! Capt. Moran answered Mr. Lozanos’s question but that wasn’t good enough. Mr. Lozano had to berate him because ” the Lt. Gov. didn’t do enough”, whatever that means.

STOP ALREADY! What the heck is wrong with Republican voters? Why is heckling a decorated soldier acceptable?

I don’t get it. Very disheartening. I guess that because Lt. Gov. Dewhurst has a real record and Ted Cruz doesn’t, people think it is okay to hate on him.

Bizarro.