Um, yeah, we are. Deep trouble.

Let me (try to) explain, although that is probably not possible in a single blog post, so this might turn into a series of posts, who knows? For the last five years, some of us have tried to be Paul Revere, sounding the warning that all is not well within the Harris County Republican Party. Even after being trounced in 2008, losing the governor’s race in an otherwise fantastic year for Republicans in 2010, and splitting the ballot this year, few people in the party hierarchy, listened.

Perhaps now that what looks like another serious effort to turn Texas blue is being reported (see Matt Angle’s previous attempt, the Lone Star Project), some in the Harris County Republican Party will listen. This is what former Harris County Republican Party Chair and prominent “pay to play endorsee” Gary Polland said in his Texas Conservative Review this week:

The Democrats’ plans should serve as a warning to Republicans that as Texas demographics change so does the GOP’s need to ensure it continues to represent the aspirations and goals of the majority of Texans. As we go forward, our party needs to look like the “new” Texas, which can be done by encouraging involvement in the GOP by Hispanic voters and Asian voters and, yes, even African-Americans who share our vision for the future.

He’s right, of course, but gosh darn that last line irks me and shows the depth of the problem with Polland and the rest of the HCRP establishment. First off, “even” African-Americans? Even? Are you serious? We have some GREAT African-American candidates NOW and they’ve been out there for several years. As well as Hispanic and Asian. Where the hell has Polland been?

I’ll tell you where he hasn’t been – to local club meetings. If he had been, he’d never have made that statement. The real problem is NOT that we don’t encourage involvement, it is that the type of involvement we encourage is “vote for us but don’t expect to become part of us”.  Or, “you have to pay your dues and get to the back of the line before you run”. Sorry if that offends you but that’s the fact, jack.

I had a conversation with former candidate for JP, Pct 4, Pl 1, Kevin Fulton, about this very subject last fall. I was hoping that he would write about it but I suppose blogging isn’t for everyone.  Kevin is supremely qualified and is just one of the examples of the type of young minorities that are trying to rise in the HCRP but hit walls wherever they turn. Do we really think that high achievers like Kevin should wait YEARS doing grunt work as election judges, phone bankers, block walkers, etc., before we accept them into the party as candidates? And even if we think that, do you think that they will do it?

So how does this affect 2014 in Harris County, you ask? I guess I spent too much time on Polland but if you go back and read this recap of the SD6 special election and the lack of precinct chairs, you get a clue. The high vacancy rate of precinct chairs is a deliberate policy by the HCRP – they see no need and have no desire to build a network of Republicans in minority communities. Again, that is a fact, jack – do your own research.  I’ve sat in countless meetings where people like Ed Johnson, who is the primary vote counter for the HCRP, discourage people from campaigning in minority neighborhoods because they don’t want to “stir the hornet’s nest”.

So now we have two factors that are limiting us in 2014: lack of minority participation and a deliberate policy not to reach minority communities.

Now let’s look at who will be on the playing field for us. There will be a lot of statewide action, with unknown Dems – let’s ignore them for now. Sen. John Cornyn is a good conservative senator but at this point, I don’t see anyone rushing out to vote for him. Abbott in the governor slot will draw a few people out but Harris County isn’t his base and remember that the Dem won Harris County in 2010. Who knows with Lt. Gov., but again, I don’t see any excitement.

So drop down to county races. Once again, it will be up to Harris County Judge Ed Emmett to carry the load and pull a terrible field with him. Problem is, there is a large faction (let’s call them the SD7 bunch for now) that are begging people to run against him in a primary. And frankly, if they get the right candidate, Ed’s in trouble. As we saw this year when Mike Anderson damaged the party by defeating Pat Lykos, it is difficult to recover from a nasty primary at the top of the ticket. If Ed survives the primary, he’ll be fine in November but not able to carry the field with him. If he doesn’t survive the primary, say hello to County Judge Democrat.

County Clerk Stan Stanart has had problems running the office and the people he’s hired are suspect. I’ve heard rumors that former District Clerk Charles Bacarisse will challenge him in the primary – if so, that would certainly make for a stronger ticket but those are just rumors. Personally, I’d like to see former candidate for State Rep 149 candidate Jack Lee take a crack at it. If Stan is on the ballot again, he’ll go down.

District Clerk Chris Daniel has done a good job and is out in the county every day talking up the office. That hasn’t stopped people talking about challenging him in a primary. The most prominent name I’ve heard is former HCRP Executive Director, now some sort of communications guy for Commissioner Steve Radack, and miracle survivor of a plane crash, Court Koenning. Regardless of the candidate, this office will probably switch to the D’s.

Then, you have a problem with some gosh awful incumbent judges (who will cost some very good incumbent judges their bench). I, and many of us in the party, will not push a “Vote Straight R” message unless these judges are upset via the primary, which is a very difficult thing to do. The Straight R campaign has been the bedrock of the last two campaigns – without it, we’re going to lose a few points and certainly increase the down ballot undervotes. Imagine a Harris County judicial system 75{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} in the control of Democrats because that is what it will look like after 2014.

Combine all this and BAM!, Harris County Republicans have got a real problem. Just a little straight talk for your weekend.

Just remember, in the words of former State Rep. Mike Richards, whatever you do, don’t let anyone steal your joy!