Um, yeah, we are. Deep trouble.
Let me (try to) explain, although that is probably not possible in a single blog post, so this might turn into a series of posts, who knows? For the last five years, some of us have tried to be Paul Revere, sounding the warning that all is not well within the Harris County Republican Party. Even after being trounced in 2008, losing the governor’s race in an otherwise fantastic year for Republicans in 2010, and splitting the ballot this year, few people in the party hierarchy, listened.
Perhaps now that what looks like another serious effort to turn Texas blue is being reported (see Matt Angle’s previous attempt, the Lone Star Project), some in the Harris County Republican Party will listen. This is what former Harris County Republican Party Chair and prominent “pay to play endorsee” Gary Polland said in his Texas Conservative Review this week:
The Democrats’ plans should serve as a warning to Republicans that as Texas demographics change so does the GOP’s need to ensure it continues to represent the aspirations and goals of the majority of Texans. As we go forward, our party needs to look like the “new” Texas, which can be done by encouraging involvement in the GOP by Hispanic voters and Asian voters and, yes, even African-Americans who share our vision for the future.
He’s right, of course, but gosh darn that last line irks me and shows the depth of the problem with Polland and the rest of the HCRP establishment. First off, “even” African-Americans? Even? Are you serious? We have some GREAT African-American candidates NOW and they’ve been out there for several years. As well as Hispanic and Asian. Where the hell has Polland been?
I’ll tell you where he hasn’t been – to local club meetings. If he had been, he’d never have made that statement. The real problem is NOT that we don’t encourage involvement, it is that the type of involvement we encourage is “vote for us but don’t expect to become part of us”. Or, “you have to pay your dues and get to the back of the line before you run”. Sorry if that offends you but that’s the fact, jack.
I had a conversation with former candidate for JP, Pct 4, Pl 1, Kevin Fulton, about this very subject last fall. I was hoping that he would write about it but I suppose blogging isn’t for everyone. Kevin is supremely qualified and is just one of the examples of the type of young minorities that are trying to rise in the HCRP but hit walls wherever they turn. Do we really think that high achievers like Kevin should wait YEARS doing grunt work as election judges, phone bankers, block walkers, etc., before we accept them into the party as candidates? And even if we think that, do you think that they will do it?
So how does this affect 2014 in Harris County, you ask? I guess I spent too much time on Polland but if you go back and read this recap of the SD6 special election and the lack of precinct chairs, you get a clue. The high vacancy rate of precinct chairs is a deliberate policy by the HCRP – they see no need and have no desire to build a network of Republicans in minority communities. Again, that is a fact, jack – do your own research. I’ve sat in countless meetings where people like Ed Johnson, who is the primary vote counter for the HCRP, discourage people from campaigning in minority neighborhoods because they don’t want to “stir the hornet’s nest”.
So now we have two factors that are limiting us in 2014: lack of minority participation and a deliberate policy not to reach minority communities.
Now let’s look at who will be on the playing field for us. There will be a lot of statewide action, with unknown Dems – let’s ignore them for now. Sen. John Cornyn is a good conservative senator but at this point, I don’t see anyone rushing out to vote for him. Abbott in the governor slot will draw a few people out but Harris County isn’t his base and remember that the Dem won Harris County in 2010. Who knows with Lt. Gov., but again, I don’t see any excitement.
So drop down to county races. Once again, it will be up to Harris County Judge Ed Emmett to carry the load and pull a terrible field with him. Problem is, there is a large faction (let’s call them the SD7 bunch for now) that are begging people to run against him in a primary. And frankly, if they get the right candidate, Ed’s in trouble. As we saw this year when Mike Anderson damaged the party by defeating Pat Lykos, it is difficult to recover from a nasty primary at the top of the ticket. If Ed survives the primary, he’ll be fine in November but not able to carry the field with him. If he doesn’t survive the primary, say hello to County Judge Democrat.
County Clerk Stan Stanart has had problems running the office and the people he’s hired are suspect. I’ve heard rumors that former District Clerk Charles Bacarisse will challenge him in the primary – if so, that would certainly make for a stronger ticket but those are just rumors. Personally, I’d like to see former candidate for State Rep 149 candidate Jack Lee take a crack at it. If Stan is on the ballot again, he’ll go down.
District Clerk Chris Daniel has done a good job and is out in the county every day talking up the office. That hasn’t stopped people talking about challenging him in a primary. The most prominent name I’ve heard is former HCRP Executive Director, now some sort of communications guy for Commissioner Steve Radack, and miracle survivor of a plane crash, Court Koenning. Regardless of the candidate, this office will probably switch to the D’s.
Then, you have a problem with some gosh awful incumbent judges (who will cost some very good incumbent judges their bench). I, and many of us in the party, will not push a “Vote Straight R” message unless these judges are upset via the primary, which is a very difficult thing to do. The Straight R campaign has been the bedrock of the last two campaigns – without it, we’re going to lose a few points and certainly increase the down ballot undervotes. Imagine a Harris County judicial system 75{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} in the control of Democrats because that is what it will look like after 2014.
Combine all this and BAM!, Harris County Republicans have got a real problem. Just a little straight talk for your weekend.
Just remember, in the words of former State Rep. Mike Richards, whatever you do, don’t let anyone steal your joy!
If Cornyn loses in the primary and the Repubs run a Tea Partyer for Senate, and IF the Dems run a good Hispanic candidate, like one of the Castro brothers (oh the irony), look for Texas to turn purple. BTW did you hear Cornyn voted against John Kerry for Sec of State? Was he playing to the base? Yeah, right. One more thing. Ted Cruz is rapidly making a name for himself, sadly, in a bad way.
Why would someone run against Chris Daniel if he’s doing a good job? Is he not “conservative enough?”
"The Democrats’ plans should serve as a warning to Republicans that as Texas demographics change so does the GOP’s need to ensure it continues to represent the aspirations and goals of the majority of Texans. As we go forward, our party needs to look like the “new” Texas, which can be done by encouraging involvement in the GOP by Hispanic voters and Asian voters and, yes, even African-Americans who share our vision for the future."
Wow…I'm really scared…if I don't support going the way of CA. I might only have one political party that behaves in the same open borders fashion as the other party.
I also curious wht’d motivate a Republican or a Democrat to challenge Chris Daniel when I’ve heard Republicans and Democrats commend the job he’s doing or has done for the county. My thoughts consistently are ’14 is better for Harris County Republicans because it is a governor’s election year when turnout county wide is in the 40 percentile v. last fall when it was in 60 percent of registered voters category.
I think Pollack’s writing is a great example of what’s wrong. I love that we are the problem, yet in our tea all are welcome.
I'm surprised to see my name mentioned as a candidate for anything. I have no plans to run for any office. Ya'll come see me here at HBU! Charles Bacarisse
See you are missed:-)
As for me, if nominated I will move to Costa Rica. If elected, I will fight extradition.
"Probably" a wise decision ! Dennis V
This blog will not be enough to change the course. The May primary showed us that. Good try.
You never know Randy Kubosh. You just never know. Depends on who reads and what they do.
I do not know if this is true…I heard on the radio today that Perry stated that he and Abbott have agreed if Perry runs for reelection Abbott will not run against him in the primary….if true that is very annoying to me…I thought it was the people who decided in the primary who will run in the general election not some back room deal by the politicians themselves…..
"The high vacancy rate of precinct chairs is a deliberate policy by the HCRP – they see no need and have no desire to build a network of Republicans in minority communities. Again, that is a fact, jack – do your own research."
As a member of the HCRP Vacancy Committee, I would invite any HCRP Precinct Chair to attend our meetings, as is provided for in the party by-laws. Meetings are on the calendar on the county party web page. Precinct Chairs who are not on the committee may observe but may not vote on any business. I believe our next meeting is on 2/18.
They say that the first step in dealing with a problem admitting that one (or more) exists. Perhaps one of those “intervention” meetings would help.
good analysis. what seems to be missing and no one discussing… is we have become governed by 3 slates. and yes they seem to have the potential for profit motives. point is , I remember the last 2 county chairman races and polland, hotze, lowery and bettencourt ran to the chairman 's defense, and in most cases wrote an editorial as to why we should keep the chairman. I let them each know I found this to be hipocritical sense we are supposed to conservative, accountable, and care more about the results than our personal influence with the chairman and/or money.the discussion with polland should be an analysis of the delta between is successful chairmanship and the present. in my opinion, in a nutshell, because we could do a lenghty drill down is – gary focused on local local local local issues and races. even to the hisd, hcc trustee level. he also got us a majority of 8 on city council! the current has seemed to abanoned this for quite some time and now we suffer the neglect. gary would never allow cave man strategies like ed johnson proposes to even exist. the current chairman, in my opinion, enjoyed the state arena, with black ties and big names. sounds fun but not impactful thus the coffers went dry which increased the power of the slates and a neglctful presense of the grass roots locally. I have said this for years and publically as a speaker at pachyderms and an officer of the c club. our current status as a party reminds me of 2 drunks arguing over a bar bill on the titanic.
Very insightful and alarming. Parties that lose elections tend to fall into disarray, and typically that results in a restructuring and re-strengthening of the party. It seems to me, and your analysis confirms that County/State party dynamic seems to be one of satisfaction with the minimal victory achieved. In terms of warfare, it could best be described as fighting the enemy to a draw, and holding territory, but not advancing. Stalemate. The biggest problem with a stalemate is that it does not last. If the other side is pushing for VICTORY and GAIN, and our side is pushing to just maintain the status quo, we are on the road to defeat. Victory at all costs. I would much rather try to fix our county, state, national problems from the inside.
Unfortunately, David you are right; the local Republican Party is in trouble. The “big three” slate endorsers actions have made the opinion of grass roots activists irrelevant in the primary elections. What started out years ago as a good idea to vet local candidates and provide guidance to the party faithful has now become no more than a power grabbing operation carried on for greed and yes, profit. If you want to win the primary just obtain the blessing of the “big three” endorsers and you are in. You can do this now before you even announce your candidacy. NO experience or qualifications necessary. The desires of the party faithful be damned.
Let’s not pile on Stan Stanart too much. Running any effort that has anything to do with voting is no easy feat. I can testify first hand to that. Stan is attempting to bring new technology to the election process. Who of you would make a perfect effort at this? I am afraid that the only reason republican power brokers want to contest a grass roots stalwart like Stanart is only for, you guessed it, greed and profit.
As for Chris Daniel, I have heard only good things about his efforts to date. At least he had the courage to hire two qualified, dedicated tax office employees fired for political reasons by the slate candidate winner, Mike Sullivan, even before I left.
Ed Johnson has it right at least in part. For instance, running an opponent against Sheila Jackson Lee only increases her efforts and hurts countywide Republican candidates. Where Ed may be wrong is that having Republican precinct chairs in these precincts is absolutely a benefit. We need a conservative republican base in minority areas, no matter how small now.
Having been both a beneficiary and a victim of the slates I am now faced with deciding to just fade away like General MacArthur or to reengage in some capacity. In many ways I suspect that the decision I have to make is the same being considered by many long-time republicans.
Adding to my dismay is the controlling republican leadership’s concentration on making the well-to-do even more well-to-do rather than restoring accountability, integrity and the founding principles to government and the society. We need to become neutral on support for big business; they drag us down. They have become apolitical , relying on lobbyists and money to buy favoritism from democrats and republicans alike.
Don Sumners
David, I talked to Ed Johnson with whom you wrote “Ed Johnson, who is the primary vote counter for the HCRP,” and he said that John German is the person in charge on the vote counting not him. According to Ed, his official duty is running th IT department.
I just got off the phone with Ed Johnson and he told me that John German was in charge of the vote counting, not him. Ed said that he was responsible for running the IT department.
Randy Kubosh, that is an example of why it is so difficult to deal with Ed and Stan and others at the HCRP. John German is a bureaucrat, and runs elections for the county. Notice that I said that Ed was "primary vote counter for the HCRP". Two very different things and Ed very well knows what I'm talking about, which is going through the primary roles and identifying Republican voters. That is what Ed and Stan do for the party. It's a shame that he wouldn't be honest with you.
I wish the Republican Party was something I could believe in, last time I got out and jumped in was to block walk for Dan back in those early days when he first ran….the result was not the man I was promised as an elected representative of the people. I believe the Republican Party has destroyed most of the credibility it had with the people, yes I certainly agree with much of their beliefs and ideas but you have to stop saying one thing and then doing another…your words and promises have to mean something and they have two faced the people too many times.
Look at how excited they are now, like drunks in a warehouse full of beer, we have a PROJECTED budget surplus…maybe extra money in the next two years…yet they cannot wait to spend what they have not received yet….sorry that is not what I believe a Conservative is..it sounds more like a Liberal spending money they do not have….why not wait until the money is in the bank THEN decide what you do with it..how many times have we been burnt when the projected revenue did not meet the projections yet we already promised the money……and God forbid the average person out here in the private world tries to run in the primary against the established politician…notice how the are always portrayed as a nut job????
I have no interest in dealing with people who will refuse to accept the truth, there is cancer within and it must be cut out and removed or the patient will continue a slow death…
A perfect example of what is wrong with some Republicans, this is nothing but a very stupid stunt..who cares what Piers has to say about the gun issue, why would any serious politician give him 1 minute of time and credibility like this…adults acting like children
https://www.facebook.com/al.zolli#!/photo.php?fbid=10151238292747691&set=a.426381362690.206081.137281587690&type=1&theater
The first thing we have to do is get rid of the corruption at the HCRP (current and past leadership), which includes a few major areas (that we know of):
– Current and former party leaders and their associates cultivating lucrative taxpayer funded ad litem appointments from the judges they help to elect in areas of the law for which they are little qualified.
– Using the HCRP as a machine to seek jobs (judicial positions) for law associates who have been financially unsucessful lawyers.
– Cheerleading for conservative social values and the Republican ticket, while supporting the Democrat judicial philosophy and receiving major financial support from some of the most liberal Democrat donors in America.
– Actively participating in trade organizations closely tied to the Democrat party.
– Acting as the hired consultant for a Democrat mayoral candidate when a conservative is running.
Interesting observations here. I’ve been seeing this for years, yet it reminds me of the three headed monster, but with only 2 legs trying to read Captain Jack Sparrow’s magic compass. The multitude of directions, yet only the two legs that become twisted with indecision while the “BLUE” sky builds all around us.
.
Now with a somewhat clear diagnosis of the problem, what is the solution(s)? My fear is that the three headed monster will remain quarreled with itself and virtually become a smorgasbord for the crew with the BLUS paint?
What is your take? email me [email protected]