Big Jolly Politics

politics in Harris County and Texas

Alternate Judge Reports Errors With e-pollbooks Program

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This is a guest post by Stan Burton, a Republican Alternate judge working the current election.

 

My name is Stan Burton, I am the Republican Alternate Judge at early voting location SRD141B. Felicia Cravens, the AJ at Tracy Gee contacted me today and asked me to check something for her. She and her Presiding Judge had been doing an audit of provisional ballots to verify that she had all the ballots the system said she did to make sure they had all been entered and had discovered something disturbing, but first some explanation is in order. When you search for a voter in the e-pollbooks software on the Apple iPads, if the voter record is found four things will show up typically, either: red “Mail in ballot requested”, “Mail in ballot sent”, “Voted early”, or there will be a green “select” button indicating no impediment to vote.

What Felicia found was a large number of voters not showing “voted early” but instead still indicating “mail in ballot requested” or “mail in ballot sent”, and some showing green as if they had not voted at all. So she called me and asked me to check to see if this was a systemic problem or was an isolated problem for her location only.

I didn’t find any green voters, but HALF were still indicating that they had not voted early. So I contacted Mike Palmquist to ask him to check his provisional ballots. The very first one he picked up was green. He had JUST VOTED THIS VOTER A FEW MINUTES EARLIER. Mind you all of these are mail in ballots that had not been surrendered in order to vote early. Those mail in ballots may still be in play as well. We only have the voters word that they have been destroyed.

Houston, we have a problem.

If it does not say “voted early” these voters can go elsewhere and vote provisionally again. And in the case of the green voters, they don’t even have to vote provisionally, their votes go straight into the count. Felicia and I have both tried to report this to Chris Hollins’ office and have received no reply to our calls. All three of these instances have been reported to Alan Vera.

Take What the Defense Gives You to Rebuild the Party

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The local Republican party needs hope right now.  After two cycles of wipe outs we have a new party chairman, and with the changing of the guard comes an opportunity to change tactics.  Will new tactics lead to better results?  Who knows, but what we do know is it would be difficult to be worse.  Not only are has there been a wipe out county wide the last two cycles, but as Marc McCaig’s recent piece points out even state house seats that should have been held were lost.  The voters narrowly decided it was time to try something new.  This brings about the question of what new action can be taken to try and gain better results?

Initially, two things come to mind.  First, the County Party needs to take a step back and focus on helping the candidates this cycle.  No message is going to cut through the chaos of mail in ballots, Covid, Trump/Biden.  It’s simply not going to happen, so don’t try and come up with a lame-o message like Harris works.  The candidates know what is best for their races.  Stand ready in the background and offer assistance where needed.

Who knows how the mail in balloting is going to shake out, and who knows what impact the end of straight ticket voting will produce.  The wisest thing the party can do is seek and mobilize volunteers to be at the ready to help candidates at the direction of the candidates.  In the end, the candidates will win or lose, and the party health follows.  This volunteer recruitment and mobilization not only gets people involved now, but it also has some carry over into the next cycle when the chance at victory in some county wide races is higher.

This better opportunity next cycle is the second area where the party needs to start focusing on the long term planning.  The easiest targets are the criminal judges, DeSean Jones in particular, who are letting violent, dangerous, individuals go free with no or minimal bond. Judge Jones isn’t the only one letting violent criminals free.  Ramona Franklin also has a history of releasing killers on bond, sometimes with fatal consequences. This is an issue that will resonate county wide and will drive a wedge in the democratic party come election time.

The issue isn’t solely with the judges that are up for reelection next cycle.  The problem starts with DA Ogg’s office.  In the most recent case of bond to murder we have an individual who was out on bond, but also had been arrested 67 times. That lengthy arrest history speaks of a priority breakdown in the DA’s office.  The internal friction also gives light to that misplaced priorities.

The DA’s office was recently in the midst of an internal investigation of who leaked a Covid document.  This investigation continued despite the person who leaked the information coming forward. Resolution of the issue was not enough to stop Ogg’s misplaced priorities.  Unfailing loyalty isn’t a good trait in the DA’s office.  This is especially true in an age where at least a segment of the bench does not seem to care about public safety.

A test run of the crime message can be used this cycle against Ogg.  If that gains any traction it sets the stage for beating that drum for the next two years, and forces the wedge in play during the primaries two years from now in the democratic primaries.  Any vote splintering is beneficial for Republicans.

With new leadership and a message that resonates the county party has a clear path forward.  Start mobilizing volunteers now to help with the immediate races, and use this cycle to test messaging for next cycle.  We have the opportunity to start turning the tide.  The question is can the party stop infighting long enough to do so.

County Clerk Trautman’s Resignation Raises Concern for Election Integrity

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First of all, best wishes to Ms. Trautman.  You hate to see anyone abruptly resign for health wishes, and hopefully she is able to have success in her future endeavors.    The abrupt resignation, however, raises significant concern for the integrity of the upcoming general election.  Two events have occurred in a short time frame to give pause as to the integrity of the upcoming election.

First,an allegation of ballot harvesting that has been occurring in Harris County was deemed sufficiently credible that an investigation is occurring.  Holly Hansen of the Texan has a great piece explaining the harvesting. Second, the Commissioner’s Court allocated $12 million to send mail in ballots.  According to the Chronicle, this amount is enough to, “send a mail-in ballot to every registered voter in the county.” This is extremely troubling in that it disregards the criteria for voting by mail.  According to the Secretary of State a a voter may vote by mail, “if a voter will be 65 years of age or older on Election Day, has a disability, or will be outside the county during early voting hours and on Election Day, the voter can apply to vote by mail.” The blatant disregard for the criteria for voting by mail along with the credible allegation of ballot harvesting appears to place the integrity of the election in jeopardy.

This brings us to Ms. Trautman’s abrupt resignation.  Attorney General Paxton issued guidance noting the election code requires someone to actually be sick or disabled in order to be eligible for a mail in ballot, and noted a third party inappropriately encouraging mail-in ballots, “could subject those third parties to criminal sanctions imposed by Election Code section 84.0041.” Subsequent to this guidance release Ms. Trautman indicated she was not going to abide by the Commissioner’s Court’s plans to expand mail-in balloting, and then she very abruptly resigned in the aftermath of the declaration she was not going to comply to the Commissioner’s Court’s wishes.  The timing seems very suspicious.

With the Commissioner’s Court voting along party lines to expand mail in balloting, and the Commissioner’s Court getting to appoint the replacement for Ms. Trautman, it is likely that they will select someone who will abide by their mail-in ballot plan.  Since ballot harvesting is already occurring, and the Commissioner’s Court is apparently willing to risk criminal sanctions to implement their mail-in balloting scheme, it is an open question if the general election will be conducted in a manner to protect the voting rights of all citizens of Harris County.

The risk to voting rights is substantial, and warrants the Secretary of State to intervene to protect the voters of Harris County.  The election code allows for such an intervention as follows:

Sec. 31.005.  PROTECTION OF VOTING RIGHTS.  (a)  The secretary of state may take appropriate action to protect the voting rights of the citizens of this state from abuse by the authorities administering the state’s electoral processes.

(b)  If the secretary determines that a person performing official functions in the administration of any part of the electoral processes is exercising the powers vested in that person in a manner that impedes the free exercise of a citizen’s voting rights, the secretary may order the person to correct the offending conduct.  If the person fails to comply, the secretary may seek enforcement of the order by a temporary restraining order or a writ of injunction or mandamus obtained through the attorney general.

Acts 1985, 69th Leg., ch. 211, Sec. 1, eff. Jan. 1, 1986.

Regardless of the outcome of the investigation into ballot harvesting the allegations are sufficiently detailed to raise the specter of voting fraud, and if mail-in balloting is expanded the threat of fraud increases.  To that end, placing the elections portion of the county clerk’s office into a receivership to administer the election needs to be considered.  Investigations into voter fraud take time, and it’s not reasonable to think that the credible sounding allegations of ballot harvesting can be investigated by the general election.  With Commissioner’s Court seemingly intent on providing funding to sent the entire registered voter population in the county a mail-in ballot in the face of credible ballot harvesting allegations that’s a recipe for fraud on a grand scale.  This is why the election code allows the Secretary of State to protect the voting rights of the citizens of the county.

Why I’m Running for Congress

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Guest Post By: Jim Noteware, candidate for Texas Congressional District 7

In District 7 we are facing a one-term incumbent who has done a 180 degree “left” turn from what she promised.  CD 7 is the most important Congressional district in the US because of its leadership in energy, healthcare and conservative values. Winning this district is essential to Republicans regaining the majority of the House of Representatives and returning it to its intended functioning – one that sets fiscal policy and serves the people.  In order to do this we must flip 18 seats.

This race is going to be won by convincing Republicans and independents to turn out and vote for a candidate who can get the job done.  A steady conservative candidate with broad pro-business experience can get votes from Republicans and Independents because it represents the best of this district.

I am that “steady conservative” with a long history of proven results ;that sets me apart from the other candidates in this race.

Ms. Fletcher ran as a moderate pro energy, business candidate but her voting history has been anything but moderate.  She embraces the Green-New-Deal and has done little to fix our flooding. She also embraces “Medicare for All”, a policy that would destroy the nation’s healthcare system and result in massive tax increases. She has followed the path initiated by Barak Obama where the Democrat’s mantra has been, “we need to change America.”  My view is that America is doing just fine; we need to change Washington, to align Washington’s interests with American voters, including in CD-7.

I am the only candidate with a successful record of repairing broken government agencies, and I used my private sector experience to do so. I’m asking voters to send me to Washington and help me work with President Trump repair the way the government works for us.

  • Business leadership: CEO of Maxxam Property Company – A major division of a Fortune 500 company; founder and Worldwide Director of the National Real Estate Advisory practice for Price Waterhouse
  • Public leadership: Turning around major troubled agencies at the invitation of two big-City mayors – in Washington, DC and Houston, Texas
  • National and international leadership: Conducting business throughout the US and around the world.

 

For over 45 years, I have specialized in the development of real estate and the value-added turn-around of properties, portfolios and the organizations that manage them, both private and public.  My projects have won numerous awards for innovation, performance and impact.   Currently, through my various development and advisory companies, I am engaged in development of major commercial projects and creation of residentially based mixed-use communities in (re-)emerging urban infill locations in and around Houston, Texas.

The recent special election results give a working snapshot as to what works and what doesn’t work in this new Trump era of politics. State House District 28 was considered to be vulnerable in the special election after the Republicans posted only an 8.4% win in 2018.  In the special election last month Gary Gates increased the margin of victory to 16%.  This shows that Republicans are far from defeated and a Republican candidate that is well suited for the district WINS.  By contrast, House District 148 showed that a bevy of endorsements by powerful Republicans isn’t enough to effect change in a Democratic district.  We need a candidate who is able to appeal across the spectrum of moderate voters to build a coalition appropriate for the district.  I am that candidate.

I am also active in civic affairs, serving as Co-Chair of Houston’s International Trade Center, focusing on international trade and investment. I have served as Expert Op-Ed Contributor to the Houston Business Journal, and am a frequent speaker on public policy, real estate markets and international investment.

Experience with local political issues and knowing the district are also necessary to win in November.

In December 2017, I sued the City of Houston because of the deceptive ballot language that was used to convince voters to approve the $1 billion authorization. The deception was a sentence missing from the ballot that permitted the City to raise property taxes in the event that it could not service the debt from the new bonds. (This was the third such deceptive ballot language in five years, after the “Rain Tax” and the “Bathroom Bill,” both of which were struck down by unanimous verdicts of the Texas Supreme Court.) I sued to protect the property tax cap that had been passed by Houston voters in 2004.

Since my leadership in the Houston Housing Department, I have been greatly involved in municipal finance generally and the City of Houston’s predicament specifically, learning from my mentor, the late Robert Lemer who was widely regarded as the dean of public finance in Texas.  In late 2014, John Beddow the (now retired) publisher of the Houston Business Journal asked me to write a series of columns on local public finance as Expert Op-Ed contributor.  These columns immediately captured the attention of both the local political establishment and the business leadership.  This led to numerous speaking engagements around Houston, testimony during the 2015 Texas legislative session, and extensive media coverage.  My writings and speaking on the City’s pension calamity became the central issue of the 2015 Houston mayoral campaign and I assisted five of the seven candidates.

I have a long history of attachment to political campaigns ranging from Rick Perry (Lt. Governor and Governor) and John Culberson – US Congress, Texas District 7 to numerous local races (Bill King (Mayor, 2015); Tony Buzbee (Mayor, 2019), Bill Frazer (City Controller, 2013, 2015), Numerous City Council Races (Greg Travis, Mike Knox, Michael Kubosh, etc.)

I have stimulated turnout of conservative voters by speaking consistently about the desperate and immediate need for “regime change” in Houston during municipal elections.    I am motivated from the Congressional perspective because Houston’s fiscal situation is directly linked to the well-being of District 7 in many ways: 80% of the voters in District 7 are in the City, and our most pressing issue, flooding, has its Federal recovery and prevention allocations tied up in the City’s inept and corrupt bureaucracy.

My business career has been supplemented twice by invitations from two big-City mayors to lead large public agencies.  I served two years as the City of Houston’s Director of Housing and Community Development.  The Department had had a deeply troubled history for many years, and at the request of then newly-elected Mayor Annise Parker, I assumed leadership and quickly effected a major organizational turn-around, returning the Department to compliance with Federal and State funding agencies.

I then led the City into community development, emphasizing the revitalization of distressed neighborhoods through close working relationships with community groups, the creation of public-private partnerships and innovative financing mechanisms, and stimulation of employment opportunities through economic development.  The Urban Land Institute’s Rose Foundation appointed me a Rose Fellow, 2010-11.  I served on the boards of directors of the Houston Housing Finance Corporation (HHFC), Houston Business Development, Inc. (HBDI), the City’s economic development financing organization, and the Coalition for the Homeless (CFH).

Previously, in 2003 and 2004, at the nomination of Mayor Anthony Williams of Washington, DC and confirmation by the Bush White House, I led the real estate investment, development and operations of the National Capital Revitalization Corporation (NCRC), a joint venture between the District of Columbia and US Federal Governments, to maximize and realize the value of the real estate held by both entities in the nation’s capital.  I recruited a new leadership team and worked closely with numerous constituencies (including neighborhood groups, private developers, Federal and local officials and institutional investors) to effect high profile transactions, development of major projects and stimulation of neighborhood revitalization programs, including transfer of the Southwest Waterfront to the Anacostia Waterfront Corporation; redevelopment of the Mt. Vernon Triangle; creation of the DC USA / Target project; sale of the Waterside Mall into numerous neighborhood mixed-use developments; and numerous projects in Anacostia, Columbia Heights, along Georgia Avenue / Howard University, and around Union Station near Capitol Hill.

This long and deep history of involvement with campaigns not only has developed the local contacts necessary to effectively campaign come November, but it also gives me insight into how CD-7 votes and what is needed to win in the district.  Rather than have the double edged sword of being Trump’s candidate – which is much a liability as an asset in CD-7 – or experience working on single issue campaigns such as metro expansion — I am already positioned to achieve success with local consultants based on a successful career of professional success and local civic involvement.

This local experience in Houston has influenced the formulation of policy positions for my Congressional campaigns, creating my specific focus on “taxpayer advocacy.”   To my knowledge, I am the only candidate that has articulated this commitment, and also the only candidate to have specific — let alone ten years of consistent – experience in putting this policy into practice.

Please vote for me – I will defeat Democrat incumbent Lizzie Fletcher and help return Republican control to the US House of Representatives.

 

Will HCRP Learn from the Runoff Election?

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Primary elections are less than a month off, and the party is going to have to choose whether to stick with Simpson or go another route.  In the past I’ve voted both for and against Simpson, and am currently undecided on what to do this year.  While countywide elections, save perhaps district attorney, are likely to be a wipe out again the election has enough races that will be close enough that prudent action by HCRP could make a difference.

David wrote a great piece about the County Chair race.  While it’s hard to argue with the logic he uses does the special election result teach us about how a different path forward could lead to different results?  I would argue it does, and that until Simpson, or a successor, treads the new path that the county is going to be in an ever deepening blue ocean.

Looking at historical data for HD 148 shows the following results:

2020 special election – DEM 65.47 REP 34.53 (D+30.94)

2018 – DEM 67.91 REP 32.09 (D+35.82)

2016 – Uncontested

2014 – DEM 60.29 REP 39.71 (D+20.58)

2012 – No republican

2010 – DEM 58.68 REP 41.32 (D+17.36)

With 2016 uncontested we can’t assess how much is a response to Trump and/or Beto-mania in 2018.  However, we can look at a random county wide race to glean that data.  Using the top Judicial District race on the ballot shows the following results:

2018 – DEM 54.78 REP 45.22 (D+9.56)

2016 – DEM 52.42 REP 47.58 (D+4.84)

2014 – DEM 45.71 REP 53.55 (D-7.84)

Comparing HD 148 to the top judicial race shows a 2014 to 2018 difference of:

Judicial District DEM+17.4

HD 148 DEM+15.24

With the two values similar, it looks like Trump/Beto accounted for roughly a 16 point swing, and less reliably one could use the 2016 results to argue that Trump is 72.8% of the swing and Beto the other 27.2% of the swing.  If we apply the those modifiers to HD 148 that would give a predicted DEM vote in the 2020 runoff election as DEM+ (20.58+(0.72*16)) = DEM +32.1.  This is in line with the actual results, especially considering the incumbent was not running for reelection, and the special election having a low turnout.

Luis LaRotta’s team did as best as they could in the election.  Not only were they active campaigning, but they had a bevy of endorsements.  It didn’t move the needle.  That tells us that continuing with the same path forward campaigning wise is not going to be effective.  So what can HCRP learn from the election and how can they do better?

If the goal of the county party is to organize the party then we shouldn’t expect to prevail in the close races.  The county party apparatus has to adapt if we are to succeed in the future.  The saying that the county party can have principles or money but not both has to be looked at differently to move forward.  The county party needs both; finances to be able to fund operations, and principles to motivate volunteers to come out and participate.

To that end, HCRP needs to do two things.  One, they have to make a concerted effort to call out and end fighting over any self proclaimed dichotomy within the party.  I’ve long beat the drum of the party being stronger when it is a big tent, and that needs to be a priority for the HCRP.  It’s okay to disagree with the Log Cabin Republicans on things like the various bathroom bills, but still cooperate with them where there is common ground.  Working together where we agree not only achieves more, but it also creates the goodwill needed to smooth over the tensions that come where there is disagreement.

Second, HCRP needs to make a conscious decision that organization isn’t as important as candidate support.  An organized and hard working HD 148 campaign didn’t achieve anything other than what was expected.  HCRP needs to decide they are going to play an active support role to the candidates, but take the lead from the candidates on how to win the race.  Winning in Sarah Davis’ district is a distinctly different task than winning in Briscoe Cain’s district.  Rather than try to impose some uniformity in action HCRP is better advised to imposing a commitment to help the candidate win how the candidate plans on winning.  The ground game is ultimately the candidate’s responsibility.  HCRP needs to assist, not try to lead, in such efforts.  Facilitate volunteers and communication with the candidate, and then get out of the way and stand at the ready to assist as requested.

The road to countywide victory isn’t found in countywide campaigns.  The road to victory is found in district by district campaigns that move the needle in ways appropriate to the specific districts.  Retaking some of the close seats lost two years ago gives the mouthpiece needed to propagate the republican message.  A focus on assisting those candidates, in ways the candidates believe is best suited to the district, is the lesson that needs to be learned from the special election.