As predicted, Harris County voters did set a record for most votes cast during the early voting period. A total of 700,216 ballots were cast in person at the 37 early voting locations spread out around the county. That is an increase of 3.2{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} over the previous record of 678,312 set in 2008. The number of absentee ballots returned during the 12 days of early voting was 66,310, an increase of 19.6{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} over the previous record of 55,446 also set in 2008. The combined total of 766,526 represents an increase of 4.5{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} over 2008.
As we saw in 2010, there is an enthusiasm gap between traditional Democratic areas and traditional Republican areas in terms of votes cast in person. Here is an overall look with each polling location ranked by Increase or (Decrease) in ballots cast:
Those red/blue tiles represent the party of the State Representative District in which the poll location lies. Here is another view:
I might be alone in this but to me that shows a huge enthusiasm gap and is a very positive sign for the Harris County Republican Party. Obviously, these aren’t 100{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} districts for either party but if you take the up/down in the aggregate, I think that you can get a general idea of where this election is heading. The net movement from blue to red districts is roughly 57,000 votes.
If you glance at the 134 locations, you can see the effect of the Sarah Davis/Ann Johnson battle, especially that West Loop location, which is up 61{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}. I have no explanation for the 40{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} increase a the Kashmere location – I can’t think of a race or issue that is hot in that area. Sen. Dan Patrick’s SD7 is dominating turnout, as usual. Say what you want about him, he gets the vote out.
I doubt that election day is going to change what I think will be a strong R showing. Notice that I didn’t say sweep – I remain hopeful for Sheriff candidate Louis Guthrie but there does seem to be a strong crossover vote for the incumbent, Adrian Garcia, if you talk to a lot of Republicans, as I do. Here are the straight ticket on election day numbers from the past five elections:
Obviously, 2006 was an outlier – recall that the big race that year was the four way battle for governor between Rick Perry, Chris Bell, Grandma Strayhorn, and Kinky Friedman. And 2010 was a bit different because you had Bill White on the top of the ticket – many Republicans voted for him because he was perceived as a moderate and he won Harris County. I’m guessing that R’s will return to their camp and you’ll see more Republicans turn out than Democrats.
Just because I say it is going to be a good day for R’s doesn’t mean that I’m not still encouraging people to get out and vote. I’ll be phone banking tomorrow and hope that every conservative Republican that reads this does the same. Here are the locations for the victory centers if you can volunteer an hour or two of your time:
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Take nothing for granted, get ten people to the polls on Tuesday, and ask them to vote Straight R. Your grandchildren will thank you.