Big Jolly Politics

politics in Harris County and Texas

About Greg Degeyter

Greg is an attorney mainly practicing Social Security law. Law is a career change. In the past he was a meteorologist, and likes to joke that the career change means he has gone from a liar to a cheat. Before moving to Houston he was a precinct chair in Orange County, Texas, for a decade and briefly held the county party vice chair. In his spare time he is an avid student of tae kwon do, and is teaching himself leatherworking.

Interview with Mark Rubal for Fort Bend District Attorney

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Mark Rubal was kind enough to meet for an hour to discuss his candidacy for Fort Bend District Attorney.  The interview had four distinct sections, labeled I – IV, labeled for ease in reading.

I. Why This Race

Motivation to Run

Rubal said his decision to run was driven largely by recent controversy surrounding the District Attorney’s Office and the county judge, as well as his long-standing ties to Fort Bend County, where he has lived for more than 27 years.

He pointed specifically to developments in the KP George case, including filings by the DA’s office, recorded statements, and allegations that raised concerns about evidence preservation and Brady obligations. In his view, the circumstances would have been better handled by appointing a special prosecutor.

Rubal expressed concern that the current administration has not been sufficiently proactive with Brady disclosures, noting that these issues have now become part of an ongoing high-profile prosecution. He also suggested that the sitting District Attorney appears personally entangled in the investigation, which has led to motions seeking recusal or disqualification.

Why Voters Should Choose Him

Rubal emphasized his depth of experience. He noted that he has one primary opponent, who claims 25 years of experience split between prosecution and defense. Rubal contrasted that with his own career, which began in Harris County in 1989 and has included both public service and private practice across multiple areas of law.

He highlighted that he has been board certified in Criminal Law since 1995, describing that credential as evidence of sustained expertise in criminal prosecution.

Path to Victory

Rubal described the primary as largely a contest over capability rather than ideology, stating that candidates broadly agree on what needs to change. In his view, the distinction is who has the experience to actually implement those changes. He characterized himself as an outsider without entrenched ties to the existing system.

Looking toward the general election, Rubal said much will depend on how the KP George case develops, particularly given the Attorney General’s involvement and pending motions concerning the current DA’s role in the prosecution.

II. Office Management & Case Prioritization

Improving the DA’s Office

Rubal said reform must begin with intake. He criticized the current reliance on paper-based submissions  and called for a standardized, electronic intake system for law enforcement agencies.  Part of the issue, he noted, is  that intake prosecutors are currently burdened with overly comprehensive decision-making at the front end, which delays charging decisions. Streamlining screening, he said, would allow cases to move more quickly and conserve resources.  He stated charging decisions now often take 60 days to as long as a year after law enforcement submits cases, resulting in significant investigative work that ultimately does not lead to accepted charges.

The consequences of these problems is seen in case filing numbers, noting that misdemeanor filings have dropped from approximately 6,500 cases per year when the current DA took office in 2019 to roughly 3,000 cases annually today.

Rubal also emphasized the importance of conducting Brady and related disclosure analyses early in the process. Identifying and disclosing potential issues up front, he said, would reduce resets, delays, and wasted prosecutorial effort later in a case.

Low-Dollar and “Messy” Cases

This was posed as a hypothetical of opportunists taking advantage of a natural disaster and not performing work paid for in advance.  Rubal stressed the importance of distinguishing between civil disputes and criminal conduct. However, he said repeated behavior or intentional conduct can justify criminal prosecution even when dollar amounts are low, especially when the prospects of restitution are low and accountability needs to occur.

Regarding cases with messy fact patterns, a hypothetical of a technical violation with cause was offered.  He noted for cases involving first-time or technical violations with no criminal history, the goal should be behavior reform rather than punishment.

Political or High-Profile Cases

Rubal said allegations involving public officials should be handled by a dedicated public integrity function within the DA’s office, with careful evaluation of whether the matter should be presented to a grand jury.

He emphasized that public trust is central to these cases and that violations of that trust require serious scrutiny. From a fairness standpoint, he said appointing a special prosecutor can be appropriate to ensure independence and public confidence when political considerations are present.

III. Access & Charging Decisions

Citizen Access and a Walk-Up Desk

Drawing on his experience in Harris County, Rubal described a prior complaint desk model that functioned as an extension of intake, often handling cases that had already been investigated but lacked sufficient evidence to proceed.

He said such a system serves not only to evaluate cases, but also to explain the prosecutorial process to citizens. Rubal stated he would support establishing a walk-up desk or equivalent citizen access point in Fort Bend County, while acknowledging budget constraints.

Justice Court Charging Authority

Rubal said cases routed through Justice of the Peace courts should be evaluated on a case-by-case basis. If filing through a JP court is a last resort to ensure a matter is reviewed, he believes it deserves consideration.

He cautioned that evidence must be carefully reviewed to prevent inappropriate escalation, but emphasized that legitimate cases should not be dismissed solely because of procedural pathways.

Diversion Programs

Rubal expressed support for diversion programs when used appropriately. He said they work best for individuals with no prior criminal history who have made a one-time mistake. In his view, diversion should be a limited opportunity, not a recurring alternative to accountability.

IV. Victims, Resources, and Complex Realities

Victim Communication and Speedy Trial Concerns

Rubal said victim communication is important regardless of speedy trial pressures. He noted that speedy trial issues are often driven by court docket constraints rather than prosecutorial choice.  When the question was narrowed to a crime victim not staying in contact with the office, he emphasized the need for investigators to ensure victims are not being coerced and said prosecutors must be prepared to evaluate whether a case can proceed without a victim’s participation if necessary.

Limited Personnel Resources

Rubal said every case must be evaluated efficiently at the intake stage to determine whether charges should be accepted. Once accepted, he believes prosecutors must have sufficient time to prepare cases properly for trial.

He noted that most courts prioritize custody cases over bond cases, which should factor into resource allocation decisions.

Immigration-Related Issues

Rubal stated that ICE detainers should be evaluated based on the seriousness of the offense. For low-level offenses, he questioned the necessity of prolonged detention when federal authorities intend to assume custody.

Regarding U-visas, Rubal said he does not believe assisting with immigration benefits is a proper function of the District Attorney’s office. However, he sees no issue with referring individuals to immigration attorneys, stating that immigration relief is outside the prosecutor’s role.

Interview with Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller

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Sid Miller was kind enough to meet with me to discuss his campaign for Texas Agriculture Commissioner. Early in the conversation it became clear he is running for the right reasons.   He emphasized that he makes his living off the land, and views the position not as a stepping-stone to higher office, but as a long-term operational role with significant day-to-day responsibilities. From there, we discussed how he sees the scope of the office, current policy challenges, and the political environment surrounding this year’s race.

How do you see the role of the Texas Agriculture Commissioner evolving over the next decade?

Commissioner Miller returned several times to the idea that the Agriculture Commissioner’s role is often misunderstood. In his view, it is less a platform for future political ambitions and more a management position responsible for a wide range of regulatory, consumer protection, and economic development functions that affect Texans daily.

The Texas Department of Agriculture performs more than 130 statutory functions involving both state and federal partnerships. These include consumer protection, ensuring schoolchildren receive healthy meals, operating the Go Texan program, and supporting rural healthcare initiatives.

He also described the department’s role in border-related biosecurity, including roughly 500 inspection and monitoring stations designed to detect invasive pests, plant diseases, and other threats, especially pertinent with the ongoing debate of importing beef from Argentina and the presence of a new world screwworm larvae in an Argentinian horse.  Screwworm Larvae Found in Imported Horse | Equine Disease Communication Center

Beyond existing programs, what new priorities would you pursue to strengthen rural communities?

Commissioner Miller connected this to trade and economic development. He said the United States now runs an agricultural trade deficit of roughly $50 billion. He organized trade missions focused on selling Texas agricultural products overseas, citing an agreement with Taiwan involving approximately $10 billion in purchases of Texas agricultural goods.

What makes you the better choice to continue serving as Agriculture Commissioner?

Commissioner Miller emphasized experience and results, pointing to his lifelong agricultural background and continued involvement in cattle and crop production.

This primary feels more competitive than in some past cycles. What’s driving that?

Commissioner Miller referenced a positive Sunset review and noted his disagreements with Governor Abbott during the pandemic, including his independent authority to issue executive orders declaring agriculture related industries essential business thereby keeping agricultural operations open.

He also noted the Governor’s enhanced inspections of trucking in from Mexico caused an estimated $3 billion in losses.

Immigration Impact on Agricultural Labor

Commissioner Miller discussed the H-2A visa program, noting growth from roughly 75,000 to 500,000 permits, and support for college students working in agricultural opportunities, that has led to permanent post-graduation employment.  Currently approximately 800,000 laborers are needed, but he noted that with ongoing technological advancement the needed number of laborers would decrease.

How would Agriculture Freedom Zones balance farmland preservation with economic development?

Commissioner Miller described an incentive-based approach to steer development away from prime farmland, requiring legislative cooperation and supported by federal relationships.  He also pointed out that his vision isn’t a negative regulatory framework, but a positive incentive driven proposition, and his existing relationship with the federal government to achieve the necessary federal legislation to allow his incentive driven vision.

How serious is the New World screwworm risk, and what is the state doing?

Commissioner Miller pointed out that the threat is resurgent after a prior threat in the 1970s.  He continued back then sterile fly releases were used to defeat the threat.  Presently, the need for sterile files is in excess of the capability to breed the flies, but the Agriculture Commission has directly assisted in ramping up fly breeding.  He also discussed bait programs that are specifically tailored to affect only the relevant flies, and international coordination with Central American countries regarding the bait programs.

Beef Prices and Herd Capacity

Commissioner Miller drew a distinction between his approach to rising beef prices and that of his opponent. He said proposals to import additional beef from Argentina may offer short-term price relief but do little to address underlying supply constraints in the domestic market.

Instead, Miller argued that the more durable solution is increasing herd head count over time. He pointed to prior programs that allowed Mexican cattle to be raised and finished in Texas, which he said helped expand herd numbers while supporting Texas ranchers and related industries. According to Miller, restoring and expanding those pathways would increase supply, stabilize prices, and strengthen the long-term resilience of the cattle market.

He framed the issue as one of production capacity rather than imports, emphasizing that policies focused on herd growth address price pressures while keeping economic benefits within the Texas agricultural sector.

Water scarcity and local assistance

Water scarcity is an increasingly significant threat to the state, with opportunity to combine water preservation and flood control.  Commissioner Miller discussed the Legislature passing $10 billion in state water funding and $78 million in rural development grants his office has provided.  He noted that 30% of water loss comes from degraded infrastructure, which is a simple fix.  He also expressed an interest in efforts to combine water preservation with flood control measures.

Federal Relationships and Influence

Commissioner Miller highlighted relationships with the Trump administration and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., pointing to roughly $300 million annually in Texas-sourced food purchases for schools improving the food quality for the schools and increasing the market for Texas produce.

Conclusion

The interview reflected both the operational scope of the office and the broader forces shaping Texas agriculture. From trade and biosecurity to water planning and rural grants, Commissioner Miller returned often to the idea that the position is one to be run for the benefit of Texas, not a steppingstone to higher office (as is often the case with statewide elections) and pointed to tangible economic benefits tied to his administration’s focus.

Interview with Cindy Siegel and her vision for HCRP

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Cindy Siegel was kind enough to meet and discuss her plans and vision for the Harris County Republican Party if reelected chair.  To prepare, I reached out to strong Republican voters who aren’t otherwise politically active to hear what they think about the party and what concerns they carry. Their perspectives helped shape the second half of the interview. The structure that follows starts with background questions about party operations and then moves to issues raised by these “outside the loop” rank-and-file Republicans.

How has the party changed since you were first elected? 

Cindy focused on how the party was in a defeated, disorganized posture after the 2020 general election and the subsequent improvement.  She noted the increase in enthusiasm and energy that wasn’t present in December 2020.  The party was at risk of not being able to make the rent payments for headquarters.  This was contrasted with the objective state of the party currently, better finances, more precinct chairs.  She also noted plans that were implemented to improve the party such as an adopt-a-precinct program and extensive precinct chair training.

What do you look for in a candidate?

At the outset, I noted that the party can’t exclude a candidate from placing a R behind their name, so the focus of the answer needs to be towards when recruiting candidates how are they evaluated, rather than a democrat saying they are republican and running in our primary.

With that restriction on the answer, she replied that a candidate needs to be one who can represent the party and who believes in our platform.  Once that has happened, she looks for three things:

1)      Fire in the belly. They want to win.

2)      Have a good support system.

3)      What’s your path to victory.

What is our ceiling/floor?

Races will be on the margin, anyone who thinks county wide will be 60/40 is not dealing with reality.  Individual precincts and subdivisions can have wider margins, but county wide is going to be small margins either way deciding who wins. We will win vote by vote and everyone voting down ballot.

How much coordination do you want with outside groups?

She noted the prohibition on coordinating with superPACs.  She then noted the county party doesn’t want to duplicate efforts.  The county needs to use funds they have effectively, and when outside groups have similar interests it’s better to focus on areas where the outside groups aren’t focusing.  Also, the county party is data driven and has proven methods to contact strong R voters and get them to the polls.  That’s a more efficient use of party finances that isn’t duplicated by outside groups.

 

The interview then turned to topics brought up by strong R voters outside the loop and issues they saw as concerns.

 

What is the best way to grow the party?

This was the longest answer she gave, and the excerpt below doesn’t cover the entire depth of her answer.  She started with noting the party is data driven which allows for an evaluation what we can do better.  To exist in the today’s political environment, we have to be data driven.

She gave an example of how the data is being used noting  over half of the new voters are Hispanic/Latino under the age of 45 and we have to assume those voters are brought in by Trump, and make efforts to reach out to those voters.  Hispanic values should be a natural fit, we need to reach out to this voting base to grow the party.  To that extent we have formed a Latino Leadership Council with representatives from various Hispanic Republican groups to coordinate our efforts to reach the Hispanic voter.

She noted the party isn’t unconcerned about different demographic blocks – black, Asian, younger voters and is working to reach these voters.  For example, the party has a young leadership committee to develop campaign workers and to bring in younger candidates and voters.

She then pivoted to a blend of tactics and strategy noting the party needs to take notice of the divide in the Democrat party and take advantage of the divide and recruit younger members who are disaffected by the Democrat party.

She continued the party targets races that we think are  flippable, we look for clubs and groups in these target races.  The next step is where we have a void to have an existing  club or group help get a group started there.

We are also actively recruiting precinct chairs or leads (adopt-a-precinct) in the target races.

What are the major issues to focus on?

She named crime, education, infrastructure (where did the flood bond money go). Then she addressed the current efforts the county party is taking to generate involvement on these issues noting they have created a template for engaging voters by having community conversations on issues in areas that are not traditionally Republican areas.  She said she wants the takeaway to be people who attend to understand Republican policies and feel like they received something from the conversation.

How do we meet moderates and pull them towards us?

To be fair, this was scattered throughout other answers and compiled here.

Good candidates and good public policies.  She named safe neighborhood, job opportunities, not being taxed out of home, kids are getting a great education.  If there’s a major storm event your family will be safe.  If you get divorced, you need a speedy resolution.

How do we keep extreme positions in primaries keep from moderating and making November wins possible?

She answered talking about issues that are a concern for all of us.  How we communicate isn’t always the best.  Our messaging may not resonate if you are not core group.  For example, rather than just say, “we stand for law and order”, say,” I want everyone’s family to be safe whether you live River Oaks, Pasadena, or 5th Ward.”

Interview with Zach Gibson for the First Court of Appeals, Place Three

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Zach Gibson was kind enough to sit down and discuss his race for the First Court of Appeals, Place Three. Gibson currently practices in the Harris County District Attorney’s Office Appellate division which often has him before the Court of Appeals and emphasized that the experience of regularly appearing before the court is what motivated him to run. “My job is to practice in front of the court of appeals,” he said. “That’s where my qualifications fit.”

The Role of the Court of Appeals

The Court of Appeals is the front line appellate court that reviews decisions from the trial courts. As we have seen on a national level lately, the Courts of Appeals have enormous powers to constrain judicial activism at the district court level.

However, these courts also are, with few exceptions, the court of relief for criminal cases also.  Any defendant who is convicted at trial has right to appeal to seek remedy before the Court of Appeals.  Also, depending on how the upcoming Constitutional Amendment election fares in November the Court will also have a potentially increasing caseload in bail/bond disputes.

Zach addressed this area directly noting the court occasionally becomes involved in bond disputes. Under recently enacted legislation, if a bond is set by a magistrate, the state has 20 days to appeal, and the Court of Appeals has 20 days to decide whether the bond is insufficient. The change gives both the state and the defendant the same right to seek review through a writ of habeas corpus, creating a more balanced appellate process – an important change since crime victims have no direct access to the courts to challenge bond amounts or conditions that do not protect them or the public safety.

Judicial Oversight and Reversal Standards

When asked about the Court’s role in regulating judicial behavior, Gibson observed that the appellate process sometimes exposes situations where the trial court’s actions cannot be fully corrected because of limits in the law. “The biggest power a judge has over the state,” he explained, “is the ability to strike evidence for the most frivolous reason during trial. If the defendant is acquitted, then the State will never have any recourse.” 

We also discussed when reverse and remand versus reverse and render was an appropriate remedy as a render is the Appellate Court substituting their decision for that of the trial court.   His answer was more technical than philosophical noting in criminal cases, reversals generally result in remand unless the record shows legal insufficiency, in which case the appellate court may render a judgment of acquittal. In civil cases, factual insufficiency typically leads to remand so that the trial court can address the deficiencies.

Why Choose You? – Experience and Qualifications

Turning to what makes him the best candidate for the position, Gibson stressed that appellate practice is its own specialized area of law. “No one will come to the court with deep expertise in every substantive area,” he said, “but understanding appellate procedure and how to read a record matters most.” He currently handles criminal appeals in front the local courts of appeals, but  noted he had a civil practice before hiring on with the Harris County District Attorney Office, so has a broad depth of experience with practice areas.

He currently handles exclusively criminal appeals. 30 to 40% of the COA’s workload is criminal. Before moving to the HCDAO, he handled some parental termination appeals, and some appeals from mental-health civil commitments.

He contrasted his background with his opponents’ experience, noting that Texas public records show he has been lead counsel in 102 appellate cases, compared to roughly 10 for one opponent and 16 for the other.  (Note: both opponents continue to practice law so these numbers may rise over time.)

Campaign Approach

When asked about his path to victory, Gibson said his focus is on meeting as many voters as possible across the ten counties within the Court’s jurisdiction. He has already visited each county and plans to continue attending Republican events to share his message. “My goal is simple,” he said. “If voters get to know who I am and what I stand for, they’ll see I’m the most qualified candidate.”

Reducing Division and Improving Efficiency

On the issue of backlog at the Court of Appeals, Gibson said the problem cannot be completely eliminated but can be managed through diligence and sound administration. “The key is to work hard, keep staff-attorney positions filled, and delegate when appropriate,” he explained, adding that the court must also follow its internal operating procedures to maintain consistency and fairness.

Civility and Public Discourse

I had intended to ask about civility and public discourse in all of the interviews this upcoming cycle.  Between the assassination attempts on President Trump and the successful assassination Charlie Kirk it seems that we have reached a tipping point in society where political violence is seemed as acceptable to some segment of the population.

This has broader political ramifications, though, as primaries tend to give greater weight to the extreme positions in the party – on both sides – and the discourse in the primaries makes it harder to tack back to the center for the general election.

While judicial races tend to be less partisan in rhetoric, the issue is still important.

He believes candidates bear responsibility for maintaining civility. “You can’t always follow the rule that if you don’t have anything nice to say, don’t say anything at all,” he noted, “but it doesn’t have to be hateful. Never speak of your opponents in a dehumanizing way.”

Closing Thoughts

Gibson’s measured, professional tone throughout the discussion reflected his view that appellate judges serve best when they focus on the law and the record rather than politics or personalities. With years of experience before the Court of Appeals and a deep familiarity with appellate procedure, he hopes voters will see him as a candidate grounded in both expertise and respect for the judicial process.

Interview with Jessica Caird for the First Court of Appeals

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Jessica Caird was kind enough to sit down and discuss her race for the First Court of

Appeals, Place 5. Caird currently serves as the Chief of the Harris County District

Attorney’s Office Appellate Division, where she oversees both criminal and civil

appellate matters.

Why Run

Caird explained that she is running because the Court of Appeals issues the decisions

that shape the law, and she believes “we can do better.” Her answer carried a

philosophical tone, emphasizing that the court should be “effective, efficient, and

accurate.” She also reflected that “justice isn’t the same to everyone,” but that the

appellate process brings closure—and that improving the Court’s efficiency helps

litigants find closure more quickly.

The Role of the Court of Appeals

The Court of Appeals serves as the front-line appellate court reviewing decision from

the trial courts. As we have seen nationally in recent years, Courts of Appeals wield

significant power to constrain judicial activism at the trial-court level.

These courts are also, with few exceptions, the main avenue of relief for criminal

defendants. Any defendant convicted at trial has a right to appeal and seek remedy

before the Court of Appeals. Depending on the outcome of the upcoming Constitutional

Amendment election in November, the Court may also face an increasing caseload

involving bail and bond disputes.

Bail and Bond Issues

Caird said the Court of Appeals should treat bond issues as a check-and-balance

function and utilize a de novo review process. She noted that crime victims currently

have no direct means to challenge bond decisions that affect them, making it all the

more important for the state to be able to petition for redress.

Judicial Oversight and Reversal Standards

When asked about the Court’s role in regulating judicial behavior, Caird pointed to the

availability of both writs of mandamus and writs of prohibition as tools to ensure

compliance with the law. In simple terms, a writ of mandamus compels a trial court to

act, while a writ of prohibition forbids it from acting. Both are mechanisms the appellate

courts can employ to ensure trial judges remain within legal bounds.

 

In terms of when the appellate court should render or remand, Caird explained

that rendered judgments should be rare, but necessary to make the judgment

speak the truth of what occurred at the trial level.  For example, when legally

insufficient evidence supported the verdict, the appellate court has no choice but

to render a judgment in favor of the defendant, whether that is an acquittal in a

criminal case or, in a civil case, a judgment rendered for the defendant due to the

lack of evidence provided to support the plaintiff’s claim.  The appellate court

remands, on the other hand, when something must be done or redone at the trial

court level, such as a retrial. This is by far more common but should be done only

when the record and the law require it.

Why Choose You?

“I am asking the voters to choose me because my level of experience means I will hit the ground

running on day one ready to see justice done effectively, efficiently, and accurately on every case.”

Turning to what makes her the best candidate for the position, Caird noted that

the Harris County District Attorney’s Office Appellate Division handles both civil

and criminal matters, providing her with broad and balanced experience across

multiple areas of law. Caird personally wrote over 440 briefs for the appellate

courts on civil and criminal matters and continues to write for the appellate

courts.  She has presented oral arguments before the local appellate courts 30

times, and argued 4 times before the Court of Criminal Appeals.  She has an

affirmance rate of approximately 97 percent, showing her ability to effectively

understand and apply to the law to the facts.  She has written briefs for the United

States Supreme Court, the Texas Supreme Court, and the Court of Criminal

Appeals.  Lastly, she has spent 22 years specializing in juvenile law having acted

as a chief in Harris County juvenile courts for over 3 years, having handled

numerous juvenile appeals, and she continues to study and speak statewide on

juvenile law.

Campaign Approach

When asked about her path to victory, Caird said her focus is on meeting as many

voters as possible across the ten counties within the Court’s jurisdiction. She has

already visited nine of the ten counties and plans to continue attending Republican

events to share her message. Republicans are “all about seeing justice done,” she

said, noting that this is a ten-county race and that issues such as crime have spread

beyond Harris County into surrounding communities.

Civility and Public Discourse

As with other interviews this cycle, I asked about civility and public discourse. Between

the assassination attempts on President Trump and the successful assassination of

Charlie Kirk, it seems that society has reached a tipping point where some now view

political violence as acceptable.

This has broader political ramifications. Primaries tend to amplify the most extreme

voices in each party, making it harder for candidates to return to the center in the

general election. While judicial races are typically less partisan, the issue of tone and

civility still matters.

Caird believes that confronting inflammatory rhetoric should begin in the primaries but

that corrective conversations are often more productive when handled privately rather

than publicly. She observed that, as a society, “we need to meet people where they are”

and then “work toward common ground.”

Closing Thoughts

Caird’s responses blended technical precision with philosophical reflection,

demonstrating a broad foundation for serving effectively on the Court. Individual justices

may hold differing judicial philosophies, but the law benefits when decisions are clear

and provide unambiguous guidance to the attorneys who must follow them. Caird

appears well-suited to engage from both a technical and philosophical standpoint,

helping to craft consensus opinions that reduce ambiguity and strengthen the

predictability of appellate law.

Message discipline with redistricting

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In the 2000 census redistricting, a Republican-leaning map – but not the leadership’s favored plan – was brought to the House floor. A coordinated effort moved to kill it. One legislator warned colleagues that the recorded vote would be used in the lawsuits that would follow passage of the favored map. The warning worked: the bill’s author withdrew the map.

We’ve lost that kind of message discipline, and it will come back to haunt us once the current maps pass.

Impermissible Redistricting and Legal Standards

States have wide latitude to draw district boundaries, but that latitude is not unlimited. Federal law and the Constitution place guardrails on why and how lines can be drawn.

One impermissible reason – and the one relevant here – is retaliation or punishment. That means drawing lines specifically to penalize voters, communities, or candidates for their political expression. This isn’t just bad politics; it can be unconstitutional under the First Amendment.

In Vieth v. Jubelirer, 541 U.S. 267 (2004), Justice Kennedy suggested that redistricting could be analyzed under a First Amendment retaliation theory. That idea gained traction in Shapiro v. McManus, 584 Fed. Appx. 140, where Justice Scalia, writing for the majority, allowed a First Amendment challenge to redistricting to proceed.

The test is straightforward: if there’s a legitimate fact question about an impermissible reason for redistricting, the case won’t be thrown out early on summary judgment. Instead, it moves forward to a full trial on the merits to resolve that question.

That matters because we’re only seven months from the primaries. A surviving lawsuit means trial prep, trial, and an appeal before new maps can be used. Even if those maps eventually pass legal muster, the clock may run out for 2026.

Poor message discipline hands opponents a fact question

The easiest way to hand your opponents that factual dispute? Have a legislator brag, on the record or online, about drawing lines to punish political opponents. That’s a trial lawyer’s dream exhibit. The best evidence they can present is a legislator openly suggesting that maps are being drawn to punish political opponents or reward allies.

Representative Brian Harrison’s recent social media post does exactly that. In a moment of “mic drop” bravado, he stated that each week Democrats remain absent, Republicans will redraw another Democratic seat into a Republican one. That’s not just political theater — it’s a written admission that can be used to argue an impermissible purpose.

Once entered into evidence, a post like this gives opponents a clean path to survive summary judgment, dragging litigation on long enough to jeopardize the use of any new maps in 2026

https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=1148806347282830&set=a.218670246963116ook

The quorum break may have set the stage, but careless messaging provides the legal ammunition to keep the case alive.  This means that even when the maps pass – and they eventually will – the odds of their use in 2026 is small and decreasing by the day.  Not because of the quorum break, but because of a message discipline own goal.

Containing the damage and 2030 considerations

While the damage from poor messaging is contained in a worst case scenario of the maps don’t get used until 2028 that doesn’t necessarily follow for the 2030 redistricting. Unlike two decades ago, you don’t need specialized software to create districts that pass threshold scrutiny.  While preparing for this article, I created the following maps using ChatGPT using only my cell phone – all while sitting in a Kroger parking lot while Rochelle was grocery shopping.

The goal was to create an Asian opportunity district.  First the Asian opportunity census block groups need to be identified.

This was straightforward, with the above map being the core, though the net could be cast as wide or narrow as desired.  The map below is the block groups that are suitable for Asian Opportunity district in Harris and the immediately contiguous counties.

From there, it’s simply a matter of downloading precinct maps, and CVAP numbers with a rule to make the district as Asian as possible.  The below map is the end result.

Does it perfectly comply with legal standards? Not quite, but with the CSV data tables used to create it, manual corrections are simple: just fill in the gaps.

All of this was done on my cell phone, in the Kroger parking lot, while Rochelle shopped. It’s literally that simple.

Why is this important?

In IN THE SUPREME COURT OF PENNSYLVANIAMIDDLE DISTRICT the Court generated their own remedial maps stating:

Pursuant  to  the  January  22  Order, certain  parties,  the intervenors,  and  several amici  submitted  to  the  Court  proposed remedial  districting  plans  for  the  Court’s  consideration,   all   of   which   were   carefully   reviewed   by   the   Court.7      Proceeding expeditiously,  the  Court  prepared  a  constitutionally  sound  plan  in  accordance  with  our  announced criteria.  After  full  deliberation  and  consideration,  the  Court  hereby adopts this  remedial  plan (“Remedial  Plan”)8,  as  specifically  described  below,  which  shall  be  implemented  forthwith  in  preparation for the  May  15,  2018  primary  election.

This precedent makes outside map submissions plausible in Texas as well, especially if challenges are filed in federal court in Austin. Anyone with standing to file an amicus brief could submit maps for legal consideration  – and with modern tools, creating a viable map is now a low hurdle to clear.

In redistricting, the lines you draw aren’t the only thing that matters – the record you create while drawing them is just as important. Careless words today can be the reason you lose the maps tomorrow. If we don’t learn that now, the consequences in 2030 could be catastrophic.

 

In case anyone is interested, here’s the demographics and projected leaning of the created district:

Asian: 22.96%

Black: 27.30%

Hispanic: 21.71%

White (alone): 26.01%

Estimated Partisan Voting Index D+11.

Now, compare to current CD 7

White (non-Hispanic): ~ 27%

Black (non-Hispanic): ~ 19.8%

Asian (non-Hispanic): ~ 18.9%

Hispanic (various categories): 22%

Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI): D+12 (includes Biden 2024 results)

The created district survives review given the similarities to the current CD 7.