Big Jolly Politics

politics in Harris County and Texas

Looking at the Municipal Races – District E

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Next in the series of looking at the municipal races is District E.  This district is solidly republican and gerrymandered to concentrate republican votes.  This district was chosen for the second in the series because it’s ideologically and geographically different from J leading to ease in contrasting messaging differences.  Remember, the goal of this series is to look at messaging for next year, not the candidates in this race.  However, it is important to elect the more conservative candidate in E to represent conservative values on City Counsel.

Full disclosure: I donated to Fred’s campaign.  Martina’s contributions to Act Blue and Kingwood Area Democrats are concerning; especially with the district being so important to having a conservative voice on City Council.  This article tries very hard to be as neutral as possible towards both candidates.

Big Picture

Fred Flickinger and Martina Lemond Dixon are vying for the open city council position.  From a fundraising point of view they are essentially performing the same, with a 4 donor difference.  Two differences stand out, Martina has approximately 40% of her funds raised from PACs or businesses (38.88%) and Fred has loaned his campaign $103,000.

 

Candidate Donors Received Spent Cash on Hand Loans PACs PAC$ Business Business$
Fred Flickinger 46 13128 18304 101186 103000 0 0 0 0
Martina Lemond Dixon 42 18064 4276 13817 0 4 5500 3 1500

 

Given the nature of the district, it was surprising that those I talked with didn’t mention election integrity as an issue.  Otherwise this solidly republican district had areas of concern that would be expected. – crime, flooding, infrastructure, and quockerwodgery (someone pulling the strings behind the scenes.)

Quockerwodgery

A quockerwodger is a puppet that has one string causing the puppet’s arms and legs to flail.  It’s not hard to see how this can describe a politician – someone else is pulling the strings controlling the politician.  Just a hunch, but maybe election integrity wasn’t mentioned as a concern because it fell under this broad topic (which was vocalized normally.)

Whether it’s PACs and outside money, or it’s a perceived undue influence by individuals in power, this topic has been discussed endlessly the past 2-3 years.  From a messaging standpoint there’s not much else to say other than remember what plays well in E can be used as a proxy for republican values in general.  Try to keep the bomb throwing to a minimum.

Humble ISD

I was asked to write about the issues with Humble ISD school board when the bylaws were changed to allow Martina to retain her position as president.  Later, I was asked to write about the subsequent elections.  I didn’t because I didn’t want it to look like a backdoor attack on Martina for this race, especially considering my donation to Fred’s campaign.  This topic is both salient and intense to a portion of the electorate.  However, this is a dangerous path to travel from a messaging standpoint.  The 2021 school board elections show that the core, underlying messaging worked.  Kendall and Bridget were able to win seats from incumbents.  Let the furor of the TEA takeover of HISD dominate the talking points in the media.  We need to stick with what worked and not travel down the diversion that is Humble ISD.  Our core message works.  Stick with it.

Crime

Crime is a problem.  Sure, the mayor tries to downplay the crime issue, but are people really buying into his arguments?  Not in E, and that makes E a great testing ground to try new messaging on crime since it is a matter of increasing salience and intensity of the issue.  Trying new messaging here in the primary is a great chance to evaluate how the message will resonate in the general election.  Maybe personalizing the abstract message would bear more fruit.  Victim stories pared with practical solutions would both humanize the issue and make republicans sound like problem solvers.

Flooding and Infrastructure

Both candidates campaign web pages tie flooding and infrastructure together.  The blurbs the candidates had for the issue were very similar.  Martina’s had a a hurricane spin, and Fred’s noted drainage; but in general the messaging was we have to improve infrastructure for the next flood.  With both candidates’ messaging saying essentially the same thing that’s what the electorate cares about. Seems like the messaging here is already in place and working so no need to change course.

Final Thoughts

This district is a good area to test messages since the district is dark red.  However, the dark red aspect creates the danger of bomb throwing that will be tagged as the republican view by those who oppose us.  Crime is an area where the district could be used as a testing ground to see what effect humanizing crime does without the potential for the issue becoming less important.  Otherwise, the district location and makeup don’t provide any particular areas for refining messaging.

Looking at the Municipal Races – District J

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Happy Labor Day!  It’s the unofficial start of campaigning for the Municipal races.  All politics is local, and the focus on each race will influence the discussion for next year.  To that end, looking at the individual district races helps to identify what issues are in the district to help focus messaging for next year.  Since I live in district J that’s the race covered first.  This race is between the incumbent Edward Pollard and Ivan Sanchez.  Remember, the purpose of the analysis isn’t to look at the merits of the candidates, but rather to look at the issues for more targeted messaging next cycle.

Big Picture

The southwest side of Houston has experienced a significant uptick in identity politics over the past year or so.   Given the extent Councilman Pollard has be a leader in promoting novel ideas to improve all aspects of the district, this race appears to be a continuation of the identity politics.  In addition to the overall city wide themes (crime, etc) and the identity politics element in play, the Sharpstown Mall has become a topic of interest in the election.

Identity Politics

Local Hispanic organizations have been pounding the identity politics drum last year and this year, and southwest Houston and District J is ground zero for the identity politics activities.  The lawsuit to try and remove the at large positions and convert them into new districts is based on an alleged underrepresentation of Hispanics on City Council.  This is a borderline frivolous lawsuit.  District J is a Hispanic plurality district.

Last cycle saw Sandra Rodriguez mount a significant campaign.  It’s not that the district was gerrymandered to prevent a Hispanic from wining.  If anything it’s the opposite – a gerrymandered district to elect a Hispanic.  However, voter turnout in J is traditionally low. The issue isn’t demographics.

Outside of the litigation, two education based actions were identity politics driven. Houston in Action (who I reached out to but did not respond) raised concerns that the HISD redistricting did not create a Hispanic district in southwest Houston.  The concern has some merit.  Houston in Action is correct to the extent that a district could be made that would be Hispanic majority.

District VI is a spatially and ethnically diverse district where the northern portion of the district has almost nothing in common with the southern portion of the district.  The borders of VI could be changed some to reflect the split nature of the district.  However, making a Hispanic district would only be possible with a radical reorganization of several district boundaries.

The other push was made with the TEA takeover of HISD.  Complaints were raised about the lack of Hispanic applicants for the Board of Managers.  So much so, that the TEA extended the application period to allow for more applications to be received.

In the end, the actions of pure identity politics noted miss one significant fact.  The opportunity for Hispanic involvement is present, but it’s not being acted upon.  Even accepting that the Hispanic vote is a monolith – which is not nearly as true as in the past – the opportunity is not being taken by the Hispanic community in southwest Houston.

Sharpstown Mall

Ivan Sanchez is trying to make an issue of revitalizing the Sharpstown mall.  While in theory this is good, it shows a poor understanding of the realities of the situation.  To effect significant change to the mall will take changing the deed restrictions.  Good luck with that.  Efforts have been periodically made for as long as I’ve lived in Houston to get the change.  The community would support a change, but it is intractably blocked.

Messaging

From a how can republicans message next year this cycle us some good insight.  We won’t win voters who embrace identity politics so we need to choose messaging to counteract the identity politics.  Point out that immigration is a federal level issue and pivot to more unifying messages.

Crime, but without a vindictive tone, should make inroads.  Something along the lines of needing to move trials more quickly, or how the criminal justice system should give priority to violent crime.  Another good message would be amending the transportation code to remove administrative penalties when criminal or civil penalties have been incurred.

Regarding the mall that’s a tougher sell.  It has grown some, but mainly jewelry stores and the other kiosk type of businesses.  I don’t have a good message for this issue, but the collective brainpower of HCRP and candidates should be able to come up with a message, even if it’s simply something as using the venue to promote civic activates.  The effort, more than anything, will show that candidates are concerned about the issue.

IDENTIFYING HAIL DAMAGE FOR TAX PROTESTS

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We are in property tax protest season. Rather than discuss the different tax plans, this post seeks to find an area of common ground – protesting the property appraisals.  The deadline to file a protest was Monday the 15th, and informal and, if necessary, formal hearings will start soon. The burden is on the taxpayer to establish the condition of the property as of January 1, 2023. Going on the roof to take pictures is a great way to establish hail damage to the roof. However, you still need to establish the damage was present on January 1, 2023. This post shows how to identify hail at a location using National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) severe weather data inventory and radar base reflectivity imagery.

The first step is to find out if your property was actually impacted by hail. For this example, I’m using a restaurant I go to that had a social media report noting the hail as it happened so there’s no doubt the hail was present. The NCEI severe weather data inventory can be accessed by going to

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/swdi/

Once you are at the severe weather data inventory page you will need to enter in your address. The database will zoom in to a grid where your property is located. In the left hand frame select 2022 (or 2021) for the year and filtered hail signature for the dataset. If a positive result is found in the grid for the year selected – and not all grids have a positive result in any given year – the day filter will let you access each day that had a positive result for the year. An image like the one below will be the result. (Note: I added the black arrow.)

The pop up box has useful information to show the probability of hail on the ground and severe hail on the ground. As a rule of thumb, it takes severe hail to damage a shingled roof. Modern radar has dual polarization technology. The radar sends out both a horizontal and vertical beam and can actually measure the size of the objects the beam hits. This is how the max size field is populated, and tells you the size of the hail in the cloud. From there the box gives probability of hail on the ground, and also probability of severe hail on the ground. So in this example, we have 1.75 inch diameter hail in the cloud with a 100% probability of hail on the ground, and a 70% probability of severe hail on the ground.

Now that a candidate for damaging hail has been identified before January 1, 2023 we have to track the cell to make sure it passed over the property. To do that, we turn to the NCEI radar. The radar will display the base reflectivity setting, which is the setting that you normally see on the evening news. This identifies the intensity of the objects the beam is hitting. The radar can be accessed at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/radar/ .

Once you have accessed the radar, click on the search option in the top right portion of the display. It looks like a magnifying glass. A box will appear allowing you to type in your address, and the display will zoom into your address. Next, click on measure, and draw a line over your house. The exact measurement is not important. This is so a pop up box will appear when you pan out identifying where your property is located. While not necessary, it’s a good idea to change the background to the gray canvas selection. Then click on the hand icon to pan (zoom) out so you can see the area surrounding your property.

The radar defaults to current time, so you will need to adjust the date and time in the left hand section of the display. The NCEI severe weather data inventory and radar both operate on Zulu time. The severe weather data inventory pop up box will note the time the cell was identified. Go to the nearest 5 minute interval on the radar, hit the update map button, and it will show the cell close to, if not over, your property.

The next step is to identify the hail bearing cell. To do that, use the Zmax method and Mason Criteria. This method utilizes echo intensity (Zmax) to predict the presence of hail on the ground.  This method relies on the physics of the water drops.  As the water drops fall they split apart into smaller drops.  A hailstone is ice (solid water) and resistant to splitting as it falls.  As a result, hailstones show as more intense return echoes than a concentration of water droplets. Any value that is 55 decibels or greater (dark red) is positive for hail on the ground.

The image below is the radar image in our example. Notice that the strongest returns are just to the north of the property, but the property is in the dark red section. The dark red is 55 decibels, and according to the Zmax and Mason Criteria hail algorithm is positive for hail on the ground. The NCEI filtered hail signature gives the verification that this is not a false positive, and the probability of severe hail on the ground. In this instance people at the restaurant at the time posted on social media about the hail so we have an additional layer of information establishing that hail was present.

The final step is to get pictures of the hail damage on your roof. For tax protest purposes damage is damage. However, the goal is to establish that the damage occurred before January 1, 2023 so we have to look for distinct hail spatter marks rather than something like a heat blister. Hail spatter marks have two signs to indicate the damage is from hail rather than a heat blister. The picture below is an extreme close up image of a hail spatter mark. We know this because some of the individual asphalt granules are impressed into the damage.

A second sign that damage is from hail is in the border of the spatter mark. When hail falls it has a vertical vector because of gravity. However, it also has a horizontal vector because of the wind it falls through on the way down. The combination of vertical and horizontal vectors to the hailstone’s direction means the hailstone hits the roof and is pushed slightly into the shingle before it bounces off the roof. This causes the spatter mark to have a shallow and a sharp border, as seen in the picture below. (Also, note a couple of granules are pushed into the spatter mark.)

Hopefully this helps everyone have support for a CDU change to their appraisal and can help lower assessed value. Also, hopefully this will help you to notice hail damage before it gets through the roof and into your attic and causes more damage.

Meeting With Kyle Scott for County Treasurer

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Kyle Scott was kind enough to agree to meet and discuss his campaign for County Treasurer.  He has a good feel for the election and what it will take to win, but the biggest take away from the meeting was his sincerity and how he wants to use the office in a non-traditional manner to help the common Joe rather than simply keep the office rigid into the traditional and statutory boundaries.  That makes him a great candidate and ensures he will be a great County Treasurer.

It’s Not Crime and Taxes

HCRP, rightly, is focusing on crime and taxes this cycle.  That’s the hot button issues that will help with the County Judge, criminal courts, and Commissioner Court races.  However, that drumbeat doesn’t have much impact on the other county wide races this cycle.  Kyle knows this, and is making talking points that push a narrative other than crime and taxes.  He states his goals are:

1. Transparency: The two biggest issues in the county are crime and infrastructure. But we can’t get those two issues right if we don’t get the money right. We’ve seen county officials disagree about how much money is being spent to address these issues, and where that money is being spent, and residents can’t get a straight answer. What compounds this confusion is that the county budget is difficult to find, certain items are inaccessible, and the budget lingo is often misleading or difficult to understand. The county treasurer should make the budget accessible and easy to follow and be proactive in engaging the community with regard to how the money is spent and where. The county treasurer should be the eyes and ears of the taxpayer.

2. Waste: County government awards contracts not on a low bid basis. Many times they award single source, no-bid contracts—at one commissioner’s court there were 66 awarded. In April there was a $125,000 no-bid contract awarded followed by a $300,000 no-bid contract awarded for personal security services—both contracts exceeded the statutory limit on no-bid contracts. If we reduce wasteful spending and reign in no-bid contracts, we can reduce overall spending and lower the tax burden on Harris County residents.

3. Corruption: The $11 million contract awarded to Elevate Strategies was subsequently recalled after accusations of impropriety that eventually led to the indictment of three county employees. The county has paid $1.4 million on this contract with more than $800,000 paid after the contract was canceled. The county treasurer should never have released these funds. Moreover, the county treasurer has the authority to retrieve all debts owed to the county. The county has not tried to retrieve these erroneously paid funds. This is taxpayer money that could be, and should be, put towards serving the community.

 

Expanding the Office

One aspect of his campaign that stands out is the idea to expand the narrow function of the office to help ordinary citizens in Harris County.  His stated goal is:

Community Service: 23% of Harris County residents are unbanked or underbanked. This means they do not utilize, or have access to, traditional banking services. Without access to a checking or savings account it is more time-consuming and expensive to handle daily transactions like paying bills. It is also more dangerous as they have to transact on a cash basis or be subjected to predatory lenders. Additionally, without access to banks, there is no opportunity for upward economic mobility as there is no chance to secure a home loan, small business loan, or student loan. If we pull the resources of our banking community, churches, and schools we can address this problem and help the unbanked and underbanked gain access to the resources they need to advance financially. 

This expanded public involvement aspect opens up another opportunity that may not otherwise be available – mediator between opposing factions on Commissioner’s Court.  After the election the Commissioner’s Court is probably going to have two Republican and two Democratic commissioners, and the County Judge race will decide control of the court.  If the county re-elects Judge Hidalgo then breaking the democrat stronghold on action will require an outside voice who has enough public support to cause the democrat majority to stop and consider the outside opinion.  A popular county wide official who is actively doing good fits that build, especially with programs like he mentioned that will serve what is otherwise a democrat constituency. This model could be expanded and bring ever increasing amounts of public good increasing the public trust in Kyle.

Endorsements

Obviously, in a county wide race the races are going to have typical partisan endorsements.  Kyle has been reaching out to try and get some less “instantly divisive” endorsements.  These include: former Harris County Treasurers Orlando Sanchez and Don Sumners; Constables Tead Heap, Mark Herman, and Phil Sandlin; HPOU PAC; Houston City Council District G Councilwoman Mary Nan Huffman; Houston Councilman at Large Mike Knox; Houston City Councilman District E and Mayor Pro Term Dave Martin, and Pasadena Mayor Jeff Wagner.

We have to focus on County Judge and the criminal benches.  Those are the most important local positions on the ballot this cycle.  To the extent that anyone wants to focus on other races, this is the one to focus on.  Kyle has the sincerity and vision to be a difference maker.  His vision to expand the office into a help the common man type of office gives him the opportunity to make significant inroads into traditional democrat voters. That’s something we need as a party to try and keep any momentum we gain as a result of the democrats policies creating this opportunity for us.

A prism for candidate evaluation

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As many readers know my wife is from the Philippines.  They just had their Presidential election. Their politics are obviously very different than what we have in the upcoming runoff a rampant social media post about candidate evaluation seemed meritorious, and is a good guide to try and evaluate candidates for the upcoming election.  That post suggested evaluating candidates as follows:

  • Why is the candidate running?
  • What do you think the candidate will do if elected? How did you reach this conclusion?
  • How will they accomplish their campaign promises? Is what they are promising even possible?
  • What is their legislative record? Are their campaign promises in line with their past behavior?

This seems like a good starting point to evaluate the candidates for the upcoming election.  To that list I would add the following:

  • Is the candidate electable in the general election?
  • For county wide races, how will they reach independents and moderate democrats to obtain enough votes to overcome the baseline +10 democratic status in Harris County?
  • Will the candidate be a good messenger for our beliefs?

We have a great opportunity to flip some county wide seats, and Judge Hidalgo seems vulnerable.  However, we have to take a moment and do a cold analysis on the candidates to see who is the better candidate for the election regardless of if they are the closest to our beliefs.  Ideological purity is great if it isn’t a determent to being elected.  We have too much at stake this cycle to let the opportunity pass us by.

I don’t hold strong opinions in the races, other than against Wayne Christian. He steadfastly engages in pass the buck speeches regarding the power fiasco last year.  A true leader has a the buck stops here mentality.  I will vote for Paxton over Bush.  Paxton has his ethical situation, but he has been an effective Attorney General, and other than the Bush name – which is double edged in November – Bush is an especially weak candidate.

I’m also still undecided on the county judge race.  Ideologically Alexandria del Moral Mealer  is the better choice, but Vidal Martinez seems far more electable.  Glad to hear anyone’s pitch for either candidate.  The best way to reach me is [email protected].

Primary season can get emotions high, and it’s easy to become pot invested in a candidate.  The heat of the primary can skew our thoughts.  Given the importance of this cycle to the county, please take the time to look at the criteria above and make sure the candidate you support is the best choice from a cold analytical standpoint.  That’s what swing voters will do in November.

Where is HCRP on Family Values and Election Integrity?

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As Republicans we pride ourselves of being the party of family values.  Lately we also have been repeatedly beating the drum of election integrity.  Both are laudable positions  to take and deserve to be championed with zeal.  However, taking those positions places a duty upon us to act in a manner in accordance with those beliefs.  Two events in the past 60 days raise great concern regarding the manner HCRP is acting in regards to these two issues.

Family Values

Everyone is presumed innocent until proven guilty in court.  That presumption doesn’t always apply outside of court.  Some matters are so heinous that prudence dictates acting with caution.  Child pornography is one of those instances.  Sadly, Harris County Republican Party has a current precinct chair – an active one at that – who is currently a defendant in Montgomery County for promotion of child pornography.

 

The case number is 21-12-16965, defendant Alex Hargrave.  I certainly hope that if Mr. Hargrave is not guilty he zealously fights the charge and prevails.  A charge is not a finding of guilt.  However, this is promotion of child pornography.  Regardless of political affiliation, people of common decency should find the matter repugnant, and the party of family values should be concerned one of their active precinct chairs has this specter hanging over them.  Although HCRP requires credentialed login on the county party web page to access the precinct chair list an internet search found a list of the 2020-2022 precinct chairs, and is displayed at the end of the article.  This means anyone can cross reference the picture above to the precinct chair list and make the connection.

Giving benefit of the doubt is, at a minimum, asking him to temporarily step back from any committee assignments while the matter is pending.  We are a society that believes in the rule of law and a finding of not guilty is a finding of redemption against a charge.  Should that occur, by all means carry on.

However, despite the information being out since 12/14/2021 HCRP hasn’t said anything regarding the matter.  Is this the behavior of the party of family values?  This is the type of incident that permanently alienates a segment of the voting population.  It’s not difficult to release an official statement to the effect of we are aware and shocked by the allegations, and if true condemn the behavior in the strongest terms possible.

Election Integrity

Election integrity is another important value for HCRP to champion.  If we cannot trust our elections how can we trust our government?  Yet, here, too, HCRP is beset with unsettling news that is public record.  A jury trial just wrapped up on a fraud case regarding the upcoming Republican primary election.  Again, this is a jury trial where the dirty laundry is being aired out in public before a jury.

The cause number is 202201417, styled Ketterman, Julie versus Harris County Republican Party.  You can enter in the case number and find the case here.  The short version of the fact pattern is Julie Ketterman and Rachel Leal-Hudson are, now were, both candidates for judge  of the 313th family law court.  It was alleged, and a jury found, that Leal-Hudson committed fraud in regards to the requisite 250 signatures to appear on the ballot.  Julie Ketterman timely challenged the matter with Cindy and HCRP and the challenge was declined.  Litigation ensued, and in a jury trial the jury found that Leal-Hudson committed 10 counts of fraud relating to the signatures.  This finding lead to a court order enjoining HCRP from certifying her position on the ballot.

With election integrity a hot button issue optics are important.  When the challenge was presented to HCRP they had to make a decision whether to accept or deny the challenge.  What’s so disturbing, from an election integrity standpoint, is Cindy’s statement, “Determining if your allegations of perjury and fraud by Ms. Leal-Hudson is beyond the scope of my authority as County Chairman.  In fact my review is limited to the face of the candidate’s application and attached petitions.”  Either we believe in election integrity or we do not.  If the challenge had been accepted, the only significant difference in the trial is the burden of proof would lie with Ms. Leal-Hudosn.  With the matter heading to court, optics are important.

Final Thoughts

As a general matter Republicans are in a difficult spot in Harris County; with this cycle presenting us an opportunity to make some inroads.  The crime situation being out of control, and Houston assuming a position as the murder capitol of the nation tilts the sentiment, at least in the criminal court judicial races, towards the Republicans.  However, by not acting prudently regarding the two matters noted herein it undermines any benefit the generalized dislike for crime has on the electorate.

People make mistakes and everyone deserves forgiveness if they ask to be forgiven, especially if their actions testify to a change in behavior.  If Mr. Hargrave is not guilty, then I certainly hope he puts on a strong defense and that a jury sides with him.  However, HCRP has to make decisions in near real time.  That requires making hard decisions with the ability to correct after the fact.

If we are the party of family values and election integrity we need to act like it.  The democrats will gladly point out when we do not.

 

 

EDIT:

After the comments below HCRP did send me a copy of a resignation letter dated November 7, 2021.  Although the Texas Secretary of State still lists Mr. Hargrave as a precinct chair it appears he did effectively resign on November 7, 2021 and that simply has not been communicated to the Secretary of State.  The letter contains a significant amount of private information unrelated to the post here.  If I were to post the letter it would be very heavily redacted, and I am not going to publish the screenshot.