Turns out we can get some valuable nuggets of information about these two questions by digging deep into the crosstabs of a recent poll I conducted with Hill Research Consultants on behalf of the consumer-advocacy group Texas Watch (questionnaire, report and memo). Readers are reminded that the opinions expressed here are mine alone, and do not necessarily reflect those of Texas Watch, HRC, or any other past, current or future employers or clients.

Data was gathered in the field between August 25-29, 2010, via a telephone survey of 600 active Texas voters. “Active” for these purposes means they are not merely registered but have in fact participated in at least one general election in the past three cycles (i.e., 2008, 2006 or 2004); many of course, have voted in more than one of these elections. Results for the entire sample have a margin of error of 4.0{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} at a 95{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} degree level of confidence.

Conducting quality political research requires the use of established protocols and consistent procedures, so data can be measured and compared over time. But sometimes something truly new arrives on the scene, the dynamics of which must be captured in a fresh way if its impact is to be properly understood, and the Tea Party protests that have convulsed the American political landscape these past two years have presented pollsters with just such a challenge.

Ask a respondent if they are a member of the NRA, or the Religious Right, or a labor union, or an environmental group, and most people will (a) know what you’re talking about and (b) have a fairly-good sense of their answer. These are long-established entities, for which membership (either formal or psychological) is fairly well-defined.

This was not at all the case in early-to-mid 2009, when it first became vitally important for our clients (then gearing up for GOP primary campaigns) to understand the movement’s size, scope, contours and potential impact at the ballot box. The approach I developed was to separate the issue of “participation” from “perception.”

Respondents were first simply asked…

“Is any member of your household active in the so-called ‘Tea Party’ protest movement, either in person or online?”

We included “any member of your household” in case one spouse had been able to attend an event, but not the other. The qualifier “so-called” was added to help respondents understand they were being asked about a catch-phrase they might not necessarily be familiar with. The phrase “in person or online” hopefully narrowed our focus to people actively engaged in the movement, while still allowing a little wiggle-room for pajama-wearing keyboard commandos who prefer to avoid large crowds.

Anyone who didn’t answer “yes” to this first question was then hit with a follow-up:

“Thinking about the Tea Party protest movement, would you say you are friendly towards and share its goals, hostile towards and oppose its goals, or don’t care about the Tea Party movement and its goals either way?”

Both sides of the positive vs. negative perception divide got a feeling (friendly or hostile) and a stance on positions (share or oppose) to latch on to. Perhaps most importantly, that perfectly-natural-but-often-overlooked bloc of “I have no idea and/or don’t give a damn” voters were given a place to stand as well.

The Results—among the overall electorate in Texas, as of late August 2010…

• 9{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} are actually active in the Tea Party movement;
• 26{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} are friendly towards and sharing its goals;
• 16{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} are hostile towards and opposing its goals;
• 38{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} don’t care either way; and
• 10{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} remain unsure.

I expect some Tea Party fans will be disappointed with these figures (“Hell, everyone I know supports us!”), but you shouldn’t be. Believe me—that nearly 1 in 10 likely voters in Texas considers themselves to be an active Tea Party member is absolutely extraordinary, and that an additional 1 in 4 is happy to identify with the movement is utterly astonishing.

Think of it this way: Anyone running for statewide office faces a very stark reality, right out of the gate—one-third of the electorate (34{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}) enters the field of battle championing a Tea Party agenda, while less than half that (16{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}) is at all motivated to fight against it.

God Bless Texas.

Now to approach our second question—just how much tea can the Lone Star state brew?

It’s important to begin by walking ourselves back just a bit. While it is easy for someone to claim they share the movement’s goals, some amount of that sentiment is by definition soft—otherwise, those households would already be identifying as “active” members (even if only online).

We can assume the 16{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of voters who are hostile and opposed are too far gone to ever be persuaded, but what about the nearly half the electorate (48{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}) that either doesn’t care or is unsure? How many of them can realistically be won over? Analysis at this point inevitably becomes speculative, but the crosstabs contain some intriguing clues.

Let’s first look at the four “segmentations” (active household, friendly/share, don’t care, and hostile/oppose) by partisan affiliation, in the chart below (exhibit 1-click to enlarge).

Exhibit 1

A quick word about how to read cross-tabular charts—you should look at the numbers vertically (“up and down”) each column. So, for instance, out of the 600 total respondents we spoke to, 153 fell into the “friendly/share” category; moving down that column, we see that 62{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of them were Republicans (47{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} “strong” GOP, 15{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} “soft”), while 26{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} identified as Independents and 3{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} claimed to be Democrats.

Also, one caveat: At only n=55, the “active household” segment is a slightly smaller cell size than is preferable for this type of analysis. The general direction of the numbers is still valid, just promise not to bet your life based on a few percentage-points one way or the other.

Now that you’re familiar with how to read it, take a look at the chart again. I’m most intrigued by the “don’t care” category, since that’s where the outer-limit of potential converts will be found.

Nearly half—44{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}—are Democrats, where recruitment is going to be a tough slog at best. Even if every friendly/share respondent gets active, as well as all the Republicans and Independents who currently don’t care, we can see that at a certain point opportunities for growth really do come to a practical end.

To get a better sense of where exactly that limit is, I converted these numbers to their actual share of the total electorate, using highly-advanced mathematical techniques like “multiplication” and “division” that are unlikely to be understood by anyone other than a professional pollster.

Nevertheless, just to show my math for the skeptics, and by way of example…

• 153 respondents fall into the friendly/share segment;
• 62{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of them are Republicans;
• 62{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of n=153 equals 95 people;
• Those 95 people represent 16{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the survey’s entire 600 respondent sample; therefore
• 16{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the overall electorate consists of Republicans who say they are friendly towards and share the goals of the Tea Party protest movement.

All numbers rounded, rinse and repeat, generally speaking, etc., etc.

Let’s take a look at that chart again, this time with all the numbers converted to represent their percentage share of the overall electorate (exhibit 2-click to enlarge).

Exhibit 2

I’m immediately struck that the percentage of Democrats who are hostile/opposed (11{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}) actually outpaces the number of Republicans who are active members (7{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}). That makes sense; it’s easier to attitudinally oppose than actively get involved, but still a fun factoid.

Where Tea Party forces actually prevail is (a) with the help of the Independents who are members (2{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}), and much more so with (b) the broad swath of Republicans (16{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}) and Independents (7{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}) who are friendly towards the movement, even if not literally active in it..

Strategic Takeaway: The “deal” with these allied forces is not yet fully closed, and Tea Partiers still have work to do to get these blocs of support actually engaged.

Let’s conduct this same analysis again, but this time looking at ideology rather than partisanship; here are the segmentation crosstabs (exhibit 3-click to enlarge).

Exhibit 3

The Tea Party’s inherent conservatism really shines through. Notice that a plurality (45{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}) of those who don’t care consider themselves “moderates,” and even the conservatives among this group skew towards “somewhat” rather than “very.”

As a side note, the 17{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of those hostile/opposed who also say they are conservative almost certainly consists of older African-Americans, who despite their unshakable commitment to the Democratic Party insist on describing themselves to pollsters as “conservatives.” Take it up with them, I just describe reality, I don’t make it.

Converting these numbers to their share of the electorate, we get the following (exhibit 4-click to enlarge).

Exhibit 4

Again, the key revelation here is that there are roughly equal proportions among the “don’t care” crowd that are moderate versus conservative.

While a “Texas moderate” might very well qualify as a solid conservative elsewhere in the country, there is a reason these folks describe themselves this way—and practical experience suggests that whatever their motivation, it likely correlates with a disinclination to get actively involved with any political movement, especially one as overwhelmingly composed of proud and intense conservatives as the Tea Parties.

We’re now ready to answer (or at least take a theoretical stab at) our second question—the potential universe of Tea Party support in Texas.

• I start by assuming the TPM maintains its current active base—9{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the electorate overall.
• Whether looked at as a matter of partisanship or ideology, in the friendly/share segment it is surely reasonable to think the TPM could make active members of those who are either “strong Republicans” (12{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}) or “very conservative” (11{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}). Let’s average those two figures together and round-up, thus adding another 12{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the total electorate to the target list. We’re up to 21{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} (9 12).
• If we are a bit more modest and assume just two-thirds of “not-so-strong Republicans” (4{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}) or “somewhat conservative” (7{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}) voters within the friendly/share contingent are open for engagement, that averages to about 4{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the electorate overall. Bump our universe of potential recruits to 25{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} (21 4).
• Because there are even some Democrats that say they are friendly/share, I’ll put my thumb on the scale and also toss two-thirds of the Independents (7{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}) and Moderates (5{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}) from that grouping into the mix. Averaged and rounded, add another 4{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the electorate to the mix, for a combined total of 29{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} (25 4).

And that’s my ballpark guess of the absolutely best-case-scenario for active Tea Party engagement in Texas—29{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the electorate overall.

Realistically speaking, I suspect 20{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} might be the real outer-limit (current members plus very-conservative friendly/shares). And people being what they are (i.e., lazy), I doubt even that figure is likely to ever be approached.

Now put down your musket, General Washington; think I’m being too pessimistic? Fine, let’s pencil this out.

• How many of the “don’t care conservatives” can the TPM get? Among that segment, if all the “very” join, you can add another 5-points.
• If one in three of the “somewhat” get involved, that’s another 3{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}.

Sorry, I’m not even going to entertain the idea that self-described moderates who as of August 2010 say they don’t care about the Tea Party agenda are likely prospects for recruitment in numbers large enough to be worth noting. To suggest otherwise is crazy-talk.

29{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} plus 5{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} plus 3{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} equals 37{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the electorate overall. Whether you accept my 20{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} best-guess hope, or 29{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} theoretical construct, or even drink the Earl Grey flavored Kool-Aid and push the number up to 37{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}, two fundamental truths emerge.

First, active and engaged Tea Partiers will never, ever constitute a majority of the electorate in Texas. Even under the most wildly optimistic construct—and I believe it to be very unrealistic—the opportunity only exists for them to approach four in ten.

The strategic consequence of this reality is simply this—Tea Party forces in Texas must always remain focused on maintaining a positive image of “common-sense conservatism” among a significantly large (and therefore politically critical) segment of the electorate that is open and somewhat sympathetic to it’s agenda, but is never going to buy-in to the movement in full.

This is why the public-relations battle over the essence of the TPM is so important. So-long as this “critical middle” bloc sees Tea Partiers as rational, civic-minded, sensible and normal, they’ll remain open to generally supporting their agenda. If the Left can taint the TPM with even a whiff of unreason, extremism, latent racism, pending (let alone actualized) violence or general kookery, these middle-ground voters will back away.

My suggestion: Continue to work very hard not to hand your opponents any ammunition in any of the above respects.

The second fundamental truth to emerge is that knowing the precise and specific outer-limit for Tea Party activism in Texas ultimately doesn’t matter that much; it is enough to know there is a limit, so unrealistic expectations are avoided.

But it is also important to realize there is still an enormous amount of room for growth.

Look at the energy Tea Partiers have brought to Republican politics in Texas thus far; consider how their size and sway have already created a massive electoral hurdle for any Democratic candidate running for statewide office.

Now double it.

That’s a realistic goal.

Whether it’s achieved or not is a political possibility still brewing.

David Benzion is a strategic research and communications professional with extensive experience providing polling, focus-group and opposition-research services to Republican candidates in senatorial, congressional, gubernatorial and state-house campaigns, as well as for ballot initiative committees, corporate, trade association and public affairs clients.

As founding editor and publisher of LoneStarTimes.com, for five years Benzion led a group blog whose conservative Texas perspective on politics, pop-culture and current events was cited by the Houston Chronicle, Austin American-Statesman, Dallas Morning News, Governing Magazine, The Hotline and Associated Press. He is a former executive producer and host with Houston talk-radio station AM 700 KSEV, where he remains a substitute host.

Opinions expressed by Benzion are his alone, and do not necessarily reflect those of his former, current or future employers or clients.