No doubt, the HCRP, under the leadership of Chairman Paul Simpson, got wiped out in Tuesday’s midterm elections. As I noted here, straight ticket voting wasn’t the problem. Now many Harris County Republicans are saying that the reason we got hammered is because we didn’t focus enough on President Donald Trump and his message. Goodness. Where to start? How about here in a very, very good article on TexasTribune.org about the race between Ted Cruz and Beto O’Rourke by Patrick Svitek and Abby Livingston:
The early voting period kicked off Oct. 22 with Trump’s rally for Cruz, which was held at the Toyota Center in Houston. Trump’s campaign claimed over 100,000 people requested tickets for the event, and local news showed long lines of people waiting to get into the 18,000-seat arena hours in advance.
But if Cruz was looking for a boost from his former rival, the opposite appeared to happen. Before Trump’s visit, Cruz’s internal numbers had him leading by double digits statewide. In the days after, his lead dropped to 5 points.
So the HCRP should have focused more on Trump? In the immortal words of a former candidate for HCRP chair, “Yeah, that ain’t it, Chief!”.
Should Paul Simpson resign? I’d say that’s up to him. He won an election when the old guard in Harris County dumped over $1.5 million to defeat him. Republican primary voters must have seen something that they liked. I’ll tell you this, no one in the conversation to replace him could possibly raise the amount of money that he did in this election cycle. Between 3/7/18 (the day after the primary) and the November election, the HCRP raised $2,398,423.92 for their state account. I use that number because that is the money they can spend on local candidates. Think about the people whose names are being tossed around to replace Simpson in a reactionary response to the losses and tell me that they could raise even half of that amount. Money ain’t everything but you don’t pay for satellite offices, direct mail and radio communications with Facebook rants.
I noted yesterday that the party needs to reconsider some of it’s positions on issues. Charles Blain with Empower Texans amplified that thought today (emphasis mine).
Urban Areas Are Not Lost Causes
Cities are not a lost cause, but conservatives need to begin working.
Many conservatives often talk about rural shop owners, diner waitresses, or mechanics who “know your name” and won’t take advantage of you, but they don’t often associate these with cities.
…
Affordable housing, or affordable homeownership, is a phrase that gets the side-eye from conservatives as if decently priced housing is something to scoff at. Typically this housing is found in cities, in part because of the proximity to transportation and lax development rules, but cities are increasingly drive up the costs.
…
Cities exist as a place for economic opportunity because of the close proximity to employment, low cost of living due to the diverse array of housing options, and educational freedom, since in many cities (not in Texas, yet), parents can choose a school far across the city if they feel it fits their child’s needs. These are opportunities many couldn’t afford to take advantage of in rural areas or even many suburban neighborhoods. The close proximity and availability of transit allows them to live a freer life from government assistance than they could elsewhere.
However, cities do have problems — problems that conservative policy solutions fit squarely into.
Affordable housing, or affordable homeownership, is a phrase that gets the side-eye from conservatives as if decently priced housing is something to scoff at. Typically this housing is found in cities, in part because of the proximity to transportation and lax development rules, but cities are increasingly drive up the costs.…
While the Republican Party platform is silent today on specific policies that address the problems unique to urban areas, it doesn’t have to be silent for long. Republicans can win the cities if activists will apply the party’s principles to the real-world problems created by the Democrats’ policies. As Republicans, we can and must do better.
Blain’s last point is very important to understand the dynamics of why Republicans continue to lose in urban areas. He is correct when he notes that conservatives scoff at the needs of city dwellers.
Another salient point is that when Republican candidates do try to address the needs of urban areas or their districts, they are run out of town on the rails. Two quick examples are Speaker Joe Straus and Rep. Sarah Davis. The Republican Party of Texas is more interested in purifying their ranks than in winning elections and governing in the best interests of all people. Recall that current RPT Chair James Dickey cast the deciding vote to censure Speaker Straus in the name of “uniting” the party. How’d that work for you Mr. Dickey? And what if Gov. Abbott had spent $300,000 helping a candidate like Thomas Wang build an infrastructure and run a good campaign in HD147 instead of using it to attack Rep. Davis? Who knows but I know this: every extra vote Wang received would have helped fellow Republicans and Sarah Davis kicked Abbott’s ass in the primary and then won her district in the face of a blue wave. Lots of lessons there, Chief (for extra credit read the op-ed by the woman that Abbott supported – makes you shake your head).
But policy positions alone will not change the direction of Texas Republicans. Elections are at least as much about emotions as they are policy. We must act differently and treat people differently. But it appears that some people are simply doubling down. A couple examples from Facebook conservatives:
It’s scary how uninformed and fear based voters are in Houston, also the fact Houston is so “ethnically diverse” and most first generation immigrants tend to vote for the same leftist policies they escaped from 😒 (I think it’s a sign of low IQ).
Why did Harris County go blue? Because Republicans work at their jobs, raise their families, live their lives, mind their own business.
Democrats think they have to take care of everybody else. Those little old ladies in Birkenstocks teach English as a Second Language courses, run food pantries, give money to Planned Parenthood. One time when I was working outside West Gray early voting, a gaggle of them stood just outside the 100 foot line, waiting for some newly minted US citizens (women in head scarves) to come out after their first voting experience. When the new voters came out, the cheering section went wild and then hugs all around as they crossed the line.
Two different mindsets. Dogs and cats. Shoot. Dogs and mynah birds.
And on and on.
You want to change the political direction of the county? Perhaps you should try teaching English as a second language, run a food pantry or give money to an alternative to Planned Parenthood. And not think of everyone that doesn’t look or talk like you as “the other”. Only then will better policies on issues help.
Texas Tribune? Joe Straus? I’m out.
LOL, so are the Republicans. Hey, I also used Empower Texans!
Paul is not the problem. In fact, his organizational management and fundraising helped delay this day of reckoning for several cycles. In fact, but for Trump and Beto accelerating the factors that were leading to this eventual outcome, we might have avoided it for one or more cycles, but it was going to happen.
It was going to happen because, as Charles Blain correctly notes, Republicans have become irrelevant to many urban voters. “Urban” issues are not Democratic issues, they are people issues that politicians of both parties need to address. Republicans have been losing the cities since 1960, but we always had the red-wall of the suburbs to fall back on with our small-town and rural base. So, we began to ignore urban issues, even though we had good, constructive, conservative ideas to address them. Now, the suburbs are in play, if not lost, and we still have no beachhead in the cities. We will soon lose an ever-urbanizing Texas, and then lose any chance at winning the Electoral College, if we continue to disengage from urban issues and voters.
To be relevant, our consultants and candidates need to stop fighting each other over who is the most conservative in every primary race, and begin focusing on constructive, conservative policies–just as Thomas Wang tried to do in District 147. Once they do, they will find that Paul has established a strong organization to help them get elected.
Atleast our property tax has been capped.
Maybe the voters are tired of hearing empty promises and decided to change course.
Dont blame the only man that is doing what he ran on.
Sorry but the Empower Texas piece left me a bit cold, maybe because his examples of old fashioned community stores up north are so alien to any I’ve been in or his complete willingness to overlook the problems of city life. For most of human history, cities were ravaged by disease courtesy of people living so close to one another, water supplies easily fouled courtesy of infrastructure not being cared for enough, and of course the fires that routed many a civilization among many problems.
Now, thanks in large part to Houston lacking zoning at all, a point the writer overlooked, city dwellers get to live beside all sorts of businesses in a manner that shows the world just how wonderful free land use can be when applied in earnest. Not to be outdone, the county similarly allows an anything goes policy on development which has worked great except for all the flooding. Believe it or not, flooding is not a democrat or Republican issue as there are few winners in that lottery.
And while the example of historical buildings being forced to be painted particular colors is relatively sound, the percentage of such buildings is so minimal and the type of people that tend to buy such properties in the first place leans heavily to the left in my experience, I don’t see that helping stem the tide in the slightest. The fact is, the unincorporated portions of Harris County are replete with HOA’s that are typically full of die-hard GOP supporters who demand full compliance with obscure covenants that include, and go far beyond, any mere house painting issues. And the legislature is full of elected GOP members that both profit off HOA restrictions and shoot down reforms to allow people to use their land or homes as they see fit. Contrary to the assertion, free market principles are not going to lower housing prices inside the city enough to qualify as “affordable” by any normal standard.
Outreach programs are a good idea but won’t replace getting rid of GOP purity tests and demands by vocal members that the best way to fight is to move further away from the center. It would also be useful if members would stop threatening to stay at home on election day if their specific whims aren’t pandered to. The entire “not Republican enough” line of thinking will continue to lose elections as our opponents promise voters everything under the sun if elected. “I wish” makes a valid point when one considers how long flooding has been an issue yet virtually nothing done until too late, or how officials continue with their own agenda such as preserving the Astrodome despite voters repeatedly demanding otherwise, or even the indefensible legal battles such as the bail bond suit.
This article that David wrote is pure grassroots truth but I have learned and seeing over the years while I was involved in Harris County politics they are not willing to doing the things and mirroring what Dems do so well in the community. Dems are like the backbone of the community like a Boy Scout of American is for young men. I tried and tried to emphasis those things and to no avail I did not convince anyone, but yet I kept hearing “don’t worry, we got it all under control, you worry to much we know….enjoy yourself now, and let us do the worrying.” Well, they did not know what I had already shared with them past 12 years ago when Obama was just entering the race. GOP has no blue-print of any type of messages, and each person that runs for office runs as a soloist.
Howdy to all, after 2 consecutive blowout defeat elections here in Harris County, it’s time for a new HCRP Chair. We need to immediately shift the HCRP Chairman discussion from whether we need a new chair, to finding a new Chair over the next 60 days. Clearly, we need a new Chair, who needs to be someone that is best prepared with a plan to compete in 2020, access to really big money for Harris County Republicans, and has the time and knowledge to take Harris County to the next level, as Beto did for the Dems here. Clearly, as Simpson argued effectively against Jared in spring 2014, we cannot stand a 5th major county defeat (2008, 2012, 2016, 2018). What makes this one the worst of all is that it occurred in a traditionally good “non-presidential/gubernatorial” year for Republicans. Thankfully, we won all our statewide races, despite Harris County. Little did Simpson realize that his ill-advised plans would bring us two more blowout defeats. Simpson and his Emmett-Davis led funding team were also inadequate to compete against Beto’s big organizing money that funded the HCDP efforts here. 2020 will complete the wipeout across the county if we stick with our current Chair, his weak money team, and their current strategy. Why? Because Beto will be back against Cornyn (or whomever, if Cornyn does not run). We’ve got to ID new potential Republican voters as Beto did for his Dems, register them by the thousands, and GOTV them in November 2020. Ultimately, the really big money source that might help us the most could be the Trump campaign, who certainly now understands that they will need to spend big money here in Harris County, if they hope to defend Texas with its 38 electoral votes for Trump. Remember, 2018 was just a dry run for Beto. He still has tens of millions unspent (and unraised yet) for 2020, and you can guarantee that its biggest chunk will be spent here like 2018. How did he do that? By paying people to knock on thousands of apartment complex doors, signing up the residents (citizens or not), and then GOTVing those same new voters in the election. The lack of straight ticket voting won’t save us in 2020, as some had hoped. There are simply too many new Democrat voters on the rolls that can again be easily GOTV’d in 2020. All will vote easily and quickly for the first two Democrats – Prez & US Senate, on the ballot. Most importantly, we cannot continue to have HCRP leaders like Simpson (and Emmett & Davis), that want to run away from Trump in 2020 and his conservative agenda. Emmett-Davis-Simpson are the leaders of the liberal-moderate faction in Harris County, and work against Trump too often. Emmett even works (and voted) against Dan Patrick, our own conservative Lt. Governor! He even viciously attacked him at today’s NWFRWC luncheon. Dan is probably the closest of our statewide officials to President Trump. To continue to be opposed to Trump like Simpson-Emmett-Davis are, is to guarantee another massive failure here again in 2020. How did that work for us in 2018 and 2016? We need a new HCRP Chair with a game plan to compete with the Dems and big money sources, if we are to have any chance to carry the county again. Maybe if next Monday night’s HCRP EC meeting, Simpson were to say he’d be willing to step down at the January HCRP EC meeting, we could begin a 60 day search for that person, and then the HCRP EC could pick the new Chairman at that meeting. (No, I am not interested nor available for the job.) During that 60 day period, Emmett also needs to take at least half of his remaining campaign funds, and donate them to the HCRP. It will certainly need the money during this interim transition period, and I can’t think of a better use of half of Ed’s remaining campaign funds than that. He received those funds because he was the powerful Republican County Judge, and not any other reason. He got there as a Republican nominee everytime, so rather than pocket the money for his own purposes, he should give at least half of it to the HCRP, especially since he basically directed Simpson’s strategy with his money and donors for both blowout elections. As a 30+ year precinct Chair, Election Judge, fmr SD 7 & 15 Chair, fmr SREC SD 7, 6-time National delegate (I was elected to all of these party roles), etc., I’ve seen a lot of HCRP chairs come and go. I have no one in mind at the moment to replace Simpson, but whomever we elect in January, they need to bring a 1) game plan to compete, 2) time and knowledge and energy, AND 3) over a million dollars just to start. Please, let’s find someone new, or it will be just the failed Simpson-Emmett-Davis team again. We cannot survive a 3rd blowout election in 2020 like their last two. Who’s got the game plan, the money, the enthusiasm, and the time, to make it all come together and lead us to victory again in 2020? So, who can unite us, rather than divide us like Ed Emmett? Let’s hear from you soon, please. Many thanks, Clint
Davis won handily, and ran far ahead of Dan Patrick, Greg Abbott, and many others in her district, and she was one of few Republicans in the state house who won election day voting in her district. She is not the source of the failure.
“…After 2 consecutive blowout defeat elections … it’s time for a new HCRP Chair.” (Maybe –Maybe NOT. Discussions are certainly in order.)
“…we need a new Chair, …someone that is best prepared with a plan to compete in 2020, access to really big money for Harris County Republicans, and has the time and knowledge to take Harris County to the next level, as Beto did for the Dems here.” (With Hollywood, East Coast and likely Soros money, I would add.)
“What makes this one the worst of all is that it occurred in a traditionally good “non-presidential /gubernatorial” year for Republicans.” (Not a traditional Gubernatorial –see Betomania– year.)
“Beto will be back against Cornyn (or whomever, if Cornyn does not run).” (Yes, I agree, we have our work cut out for us. We must build on strategies and data we have now, keep developing them statewide, get Gohmert, Patrick, or McCaul to run if Cornyn chooses to retire.)
“We’ve got to ID new potential Republican voters as Beto did for his Dems, register them by the thousands, and GOTV them in November 2020.” (This was being done by ABBOTT campaign and HCRP block walks with Advantage app. Let’s agree to ramp it up.)
“…the really big money source that might help us the most could be the Trump campaign, who certainly now understands that they will need to spend big money here in Harris County, if they hope to defend Texas with its 38 electoral votes ….” (Polling data shows Cruz numbers went down after Trump’s Houston rally. But if we can get and apply such money strategically, we should go for it.)
“Emmett-Davis-Simpson are the leaders of the liberal-moderate faction in Harris County, and work against Trump too often.” (Not Simpson, in my opinion. I think you are painting with too broad a brush.)
“He (Emmett) got there as a Republican nominee every time, so rather than pocket the money for his own purposes, he should give at least half of it (campaign funds) to the HCRP…. (Why don’t you call him and put this plan to him directly?)”
“Who’s got the game plan, the money, the enthusiasm, and the time, to make it all come together and lead us to victory again in 2020? “(No one comes to mind with the dynamism, nuts and bolts mentality, and tech innovation upgrades of Paul Simpson. Do you want an inexperienced puppet who can be manipulated by the slate gurus who divide more than they unite?)
“So, who can unite us, rather than divide us like Ed Emmett?” (Quit jumping on that horse – he’s done, and never was making strategy decisions for HCRP!)
The Harris County Republican Party has lost ground ever since Paul has been its Chair. 2014 was our best year under Paul, but even then, the percentages of Republican voters were less than previous years.. We only won because the Democrats didn’t come out in force either. We have lost every Republican judge’s seat in the county. I was one of Paul’s biggest cheerleaders, worked 2 out of 3 of his campaigns, and am sad to say, one of the most disappointed. His promises of a grassroots organization turned out to be a sham. I think that is the biggest disappointment of all; that, and the milquetoast, no conservative message. Hard to get excited and want to work with a party that has no message, and one that delights in bashing their conservative base. I find it ironic that Paul’s biggest moneyed supporter, ended up losing his fairly safe seat, under Paul’s leadership. Yes, Ed Emmett did win Democrat votes after his endorsement of the Democrat running against Dan Patrick (after preaching to all of the Republicans for so many years to vote straight party), but he lost the conservative vote. I am sure he would have won, as he did in years past, had he simply not endorsed. Any campaign knows that you don’t endorse when you are on the ballot. What was he thinking? Its time for the moderates to stop hating on the social conservatives, and vice versa. We aren’t going to win any races going forward if we are fighting each other from within. Paul and most of his supporters came in with chips on their shoulders, with constant attacks on Jared, plotting to put up people to run against some of the SRECS, and running off all the dedicated volunteers who were Jared loyalists. This is not leadership, and this is not the attitude of someone who wants to build bridges so that we can ALL work together towards a common goal. I hope that a true leader emerges to bring this party together. We need someone like a Steve Munisteri, a uniter, not a divider.
You’ve complained that I always snipe at your pieces, so I genuinely try to find something nice to say about them. This one goes all over the place, so there is stuff I agree with and stuff I disagree with here.
Trump did not cost us this election, but he did knock a point or two off the Republican tally in each race, and we ought to just man up and admit that. Ted targeted for a 6.5 million voter turnout, and maybe having Trump froth up the base was the right strategy for that sort of race. It didn’t work out so well for an 8 million voter race.
Either someone can talk Paul into resigning, or else we are stuck with him until 2020. That’s another thing we ought to just admit to ourselves and deal with like adults. If you are going to declare your candidacy at the November 19 meeting, that’s fine by me. If not, I’d prefer to not listen to your bellyaching for the next 16 months. And no, that’s not directed at David, but…you know who you are.
I may be a minority of one on this, but Susanna Dokupil’s op-ed made more sense to me than at least 95% of the Republican messaging this last election cycle. Maybe she’s just a better thinker and opinion writer than she is a candidate.
I would also like to see us cease with criticizing Sarah Davis because she’s not your kind of Republican. She’s not my kind of Republican either, but I don’t live in her district, and the voters in her district have consistently rejected every other kind of Republican and every kind of Democrat, too. My opinion is that Sarah and her backers have entirely too much influence on the interal workings of the HCRP, but that is a problem we ought to deal with in its own right, rather than wasting time and resources trying to pry her out of the legislature.
Jeff,
I think that Trump cost us far more than a point or two, especially contrasted with the Beto enthusiasm.
I happen to agree with Dokupil’s op-ed but it does make me shake my head given the type of primary campaign she chose to run. I said after the results were in that she was not the caricature that she became but she has to own that. Perhaps this is her way of distancing herself from her primary campaign. The shot against Cruz was particularly interesting given their history.
You are absolutely right. The Harris County Republican Party candidates should have talked about Trump so much more. The Democrats sure did. Maybe that’s why they won.
It’s pretty astounding that anyone who has been involved in Harris County Republican politics over the last few years could suggest that urban voters are thirsty for more Trump and Dan Patrick.
Bottom line is that we need better local candidates who are willing to work on the campaign trail and be visible in the real world where voters actually live instead of spending all their time reminding friendly Republican club audiences to vote Republican. It certainly wouldn’t hurt if they were competent discussing policy instead of throwing out vague fluffy rhetoric and mission statement nonsense.
This idea might not be well received here, but can I suggest that Harris and Ft. Bend conservatives flee to Brazoria County and help Brazoria County stave off what happened to Harris and Ft. Bend? Think of it as the Houston version of Dunkirk, flee to Brazoria to help save it, and live to fight another day.
By the time moderate Lizzy and Beto type voters figure out the horror they have unleashed, it will be too late to do anything, Harris County will be a lost cause.