Whew, it is finally over! Seemed like it took forever to get here and then roared by in a flash. Oh yeah, I’m talking about the Texas primary elections. Except, they aren’t really over because we have a few runoffs to deal with.
As usual, the turnout was pathetic. It is amazing to me that so few people take the time to vote and then, when they do, skip a lot of the races. In Harris County, 25.5{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the Republican voters didn’t bother to vote in the party chair race. Incredibly, 19{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} didn’t bother to vote in the Sheriff’s race. Of course, that gives those of us that do vote a better chance of having an impact, so it isn’t all bad. Although the non-voters certainly have the right to sit around and gripe about this or that policy, they cannot say that they want to do anything about it – actions speak louder than words.
In a bit of an upset, this year’s pay-to-play slate card battle was won by Steven Hotze and the Conservative Republicans of Harris County. If you bought his endorsement, you had an 89.6{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} 91.7{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} chance of either wining your race or ending up in a runoff battle. That’s right, Hotze knocked off Terry Lowry this year – Lowry’s group of “endorsements” won or got into a runoff “only” 84.8{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} 82.6{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the time. As usual, Gary Polland was at the back of the pack with a 77.3{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} 79.5{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} chance. But more on that stuff later. To the races!
Senate – unfortunately, Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst didn’t make it over 50{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}, so he will be in a runoff with Ted Cruz. Conventional wisdom is that Cruz will beat him one-on-one. I don’t know about that but it will be a hard race for the Lt. Gov., given that it is certain to be an even lower turnout. Ted’s supporters are very much like Ron Paul supporters and they will turn out to vote.
Harris County DA – While I’m not “shocked” that Judge Anderson won the race, I have to admit that I am more than a little surprised at the shellacking he gave DA Pat Lykos. Republicans have always been the law and order party and the policies that Lykos put in place to address crime long term just didn’t resonate with the primary voters. The Hotze/Lowry combination along with months of negative coverage in the media was too much for Lykos to overcome. Negative campaigning still rules the day and most likely, always will.
Harris County Sheriff – I had hoped that Harold Heuszel would come in second because that would have been a good, positive battle with Louis Guthrie one on one. Unfortunately, Carl Pittman made it, so expect a couple of months of very negative campaigning from his crew. Louis made it to the top of the field without going negative but I don’t expect it to stay that way in the runoff. You are going to learn more than you ever wanted to know about the personal life of Mr. Pittman. As I said above, negative campaigning works.
Harris County Attorney – the voters went with experience and a proven record in this one. Robert Talton will not back down from Steve Radack or El Franco Lee. This is going to be fun to watch.
Judges – I hate the way we elect judges. I have no problems with any of the winners but this is one area that the slate cards dominate. We all know that the vast majority of voters don’t have the time to research all of the candidates and this really hits home in the judicial races because there are so many of them. All we can do is chip away at the problem of the paid endorsement racket and hope that over time, they will exert less influence. I hope that the experience doesn’t completely sour good, young talent like Leif Olson and that he tries again in the future.
CD36 – With 92{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the precincts reporting as I type this, it looks like it will be a runoff between Steve Takach and Steve Stockman. Mike Jackson not making the runoff is a surprise to most everyone, including me.
SD11 – I was surprised that Larry Taylor won without a runoff. He’s a solid conservative and will be a player in the Senate very quickly. Special thanks to my friend, Daniel McCool, for giving it his best effort.
Harris County Chair – As I said before, I wouldn’t bet against Jared Woodfill and sure enough, he pulled out another victory. Which means two more years of watching the party hacks discourage people from participating because it might take away some of their perceived power. He had a very good campaign strategy – stay away from any meeting that isn’t tightly controlled by his minions and stay on TV. “Why honey, look, there’s that good man Jared defending us against them gays!” Hey, it worked.
On to the next election – only 62 days to go!
UPDATE: The percentages above for Hotze, Lowry, and Polland were updated because the Harris County Clerk’s office changed the results of the Detamore/Chang race saying they had made an error.
http://www.carlpittman.net for all the gory details
enough said.
I’m so glad Jim Murphy won despite Terry endorsing his opponent!!!
Well Dave,
Looks like you need to order some Viagra — based on how hard you tried to push Lykos and your silly attacks on Mike Anderson, you clearly don’t have any muscle and little stroke — perhaps some pills can help. When is the last time an elected incumbent was so roundly rejected by the voters of their own party? Hope you wasted last night at her funeral party — you deserve each other! Next time you decide to shill for a candidate, at least pick one that is credible.
BJ, the reason you were so surprised at the shelacking Pat Lykos received by Mike Anderson is because you refused to listen to the people who work or have worked for her. She has been known for decades for her abrasive narcissistic character defect. Your inability to recognize these things blinded you to reality. Well, the electorate saw the truth and acted on it. As I have said before, Shame on you!
You did everything you could to defend her and her hired publicity agent, Benzion. Wonder if he is aware Lykos can’t pay him with those forfeiture funds she was raiding after yesterday as a lame duck official?
Yes Jamie you are correct, that’s what happens when you think you know everything and can’t learn from listening versus always running your mouth. BJ, take a breath and listen to others for a while.
Jack,
Viagra is way overrated. Ever had prostate cancer? Get back to me when you have, I can help.
Jamie,
No shame on me. I picked a candidate after much research. My candidate lost. I don’t whine after elections lost, nor boast after those won.
Little kid,
I’m confident that I listen more than most, especially anonymous commenters on blogs.
There was not an error made in the reporting of the Detamore/Chang race as reported in your Update. The Republican Ballot Board did not release over 2700 ballots to be counted until late on Election night evening. My office cannot legally count these ballots until the Ballot Board completes their verification and releases them to be counted. Once they were released we processed the ballots. Scanning and counting these ballots changed the numbers in all the Republican races in which these Ballot by Mail voters voted. Since the Detamore/Chang was very close and the mail ballots favored Chang she picked up enough votes to come out on top. See http://blog.chron.com/election/2012/05/late-ballots-swing-county-court-race-to-chang-by-226-votes/ for details.
Stan Stanart
Harris County Clerk & Chief Election Official
Mr. Jennings, your response shows us what the problem is: your method of analysis is obviously (to everyone but yourself) flawed. Unfortunately, it remains flawed. I really thought after you met with Johnny Holmes, you’d listen to a defining voice of reason. I even thought that reading some of the articulate and documented comments on Murray’s blog written by reasonable people with personal knowledge of Ms Lykos’ short-comings you would be persuaded and enlightened. Now, 90,000 informed voters have told you that you were wrong. The fact that you still believe you made the right call on Lykos, proves your method of political and personal analysis is flawed. Last night and today, Ms. Lykos blames her loss, first, on being “too busy doing the job as DA to campaign sufficiently” , and second, on the fact that “the election was delayed from March until May”. She spews forth false information like a waterfall. In 3 1/2 years in office, Lykos has only thought about how to campaign every day and take credit for other’s work instead of just trying to do her job and be the DA. That is why she lost. By failing to acknowledge Lykos’ many falsehoods, and endorsing her, you have promulgated those lies. As I stated, Shame on you.
Mr Jennings,
I will not rehash all the nasty details, but simply put, you glossed over the negatives of the incumbent and over emphasized the negatives of the challenger. I have followed you for quite a while and saw a dramatic change in your coverage (and tone) concerning the DAO race in recent months. Now that the primary race is over, I hope you see more neutrality in your commentary.
Bleh, I’m not. I hate career politicians like him.
“I’m so glad Jim Murphy won despite Terry endorsing his opponent!!!” – Martha Johnson
Big,
FWIW I thought the DA race was one of those lose/lose contests we seem to have no shortage of this year. Both candidates came with baggage and it was your blog specifically that helped me make my decision. Your endorsement seemed pretty even handed to me.
I also agree with your comment about judges. I wish we had a judicial commission appointing the judges and letting the voters confirm (or deny) the appointment at the end of four year terms. Judges are supposed to be fair and impartial to all sides; they are supposed to administer the law. It is hard for me to understand how political party membership contributes to that end, We end up with judges that depend upon political contributions from the very foxes they are supposed to control.
Simple
Dave,
Why not demonstrate what you seem to imply in your responses — your pick in the DA’s race was based solely on “analysis” and not influenced by other “factors”. If you really do focus solely on analysis, how much does it take to now endorse Mike Anderson for November? He is clearly the much better candidate, so why not practice what you want us to believe and step up with an endorsement now for Mike?
Jack, no! BJ is 0 for 2 backing DA candidates…don’t want that kind of bad kharma for Mike!!
😉
LOL, Monica has a point, Jack. 😉
Jack, I’ve written everything that you are asking for but I’l try to summarize it without rehashing the race, which Judge Anderson won handily.
It never was about qualifications or competency. I said repeatedly that Judge Anderson was immensely qualified – which is why I stated that he didn’t need to run such a slimey race. The question for me was about policy. In the end, I agreed with Judge Lykos on two critical policy issues, issues that I think ultimately cost Lykos the election – DIVERT and the trace evidence policies. Those two issues did not resonate with most R voters from the beginning. I think that for most voters, everything else was just noise – either you want that type of person as the DA or you want the law and order, hang ’em high type. That’s my twenty five cent analysis, worth more than you paid.
Of course I’m going to vote for Judge Anderson. I’m a Republican and if all things are equal, that is who I vote for. In a Railroad Commissioner race in 2010, R’s put up a completely incompetent person against a well qualified D and I voted for the D, Jeff Weems. Still get criticized for that but I’d do it again in a heartbeat.
In this case, things aren’t equal. The D’s put up a joke of a candidate and the R’s put up a well qualified one, even if I’m saddened at the elimination of those policies above. I’m also concerned that LEO’s will feel a certain measure of freedom to “take liberty” with suspects. And that ADA’s will once again think it is okay to hide evidence from defense attorneys. Maybe Judge Anderson will prove me wrong and really will bring integrity back to the office but I’m skeptical after watching this campaign.
Hope that helps.
“And that ADA’s will once again think it is okay to hide evidence from defense attorneys.”
You mean similar to the bat van fiasco on Lykos’ watch where her office withheld information from defense attorneys? And before you point out that Lykos was not indicted, remember that a criminal indictment is different from a Brady violation.
Mr Jennings,
This is a serious question and I would appreciate a serious reply. The tagline of this blog is “because truth matters.” If you really believe this, how in the world do you explain this post http://www.bigjollypolitics.com/2012/05/02/harris-county-da-race-mike-anderson-goes-positive/ ? In the post and follow up comments you claimed Mike Anderson was down by “double digits…in at least three polls that have been taken county wide.” If you did not make this up out of whole cloth, can you please explain your source of this ‘truthful’ information you chose to share with the voting public? Before you answer you may want to take a good look at this case where a Maryland political operative was convicted of voter fraud for making false robocalls designed to dampen voter turnout for the opposition candidate http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/02/16/maryland-gop-campaign-operative-sentenced-for-robocalls/. Thanks in advance for your answer. I will CC this post to Murray. I’m sure he will print it if you chose not to.
Vic, if you wanted a serious reply, you would have asked a serious question. As it is, your attempt to intimidate me is laughable.
Care to try again?
Former ADA (maybe, maybe not),
First, if you are really a former ADA, wouldn’t you just go ahead and put your name out there?
Second, if you have proof of a Brady violation by the Lykos administration, put it out there.
Mr. Jennings,
If my post came across as a personal insult, I apologize. My quarrel is with your message and not the messenger. Everyone who knows you has told me that you are a nice person. In addition, I truly appreciate your sponsoring the King Street debate. You misunderstand me. I am not suggesting criminal wrongdoing. It’s the opposite. Instead of robbing a bank, it’s like you gave a bank your money. If you had followed the Maryland case, your blog was the opposite of what the defendant did. In that case the defendant put out false information that the OPPONENT was ahead to dampen opposition voters and increase his candidate’s chances. You put out specious information that YOUR candidate was leading comfortably. Why would you do this? Who supplied this bad infomation and why would this source think this would help the Lykos campaign? It seems to me it would dampen Lykos turnout and voter enthusiam if her supporters felt an incumbent had a big lead in multiple countywide polls. We can agree to disagree over your support of Judge Lykos. I am truly dumbfounded as to why you would post that supposed polling information.
Thank you Vic and I apologize if I misinterpreted your question.
I’ve already answered the question about the polls. There was no “specious information”, the information is what it is.
The best way to answer your question is with questions back at you. Really, it is the best way. That post was almost a month ago. Did you notice the change in the Anderson campaign? Did you notice that the attacks were offloaded to a third party, Steven Hotze’s Conservative Republicans of Harris County? And the number of direct mailers that went out? Nasty ones but very, very effective.
They highlighted the two issues that I noted above. 😉
Also, listen to what Pat Lykos is saying now. She should have been more aggressive, she should have been more engaged. Both are true. Her haters will say that she is nothing but political but that isn’t borne out by the facts. The facts are that the polls were good, but early. The attacks were very well timed and did take advantage of her wanting to be a District Attorney instead of a campaigner.
Politics is a tough business. Judge Anderson full well knows that, took advantage of it, and Judge Lykos let her guard down. I suspect that Judge Anderson will have it much easier the next four years because the animus that the anti-Lykos crowd brought to play isn’t there with those of us that supported her.
Most of us are more interested in policy than in personality. We will bemoan the fact that her long term programs will be eliminated in favor of more people thrown in jail but we won’t be up in arms writing anonymously on blogs for three and a half years. Nor will we try to get a Wyatt Earp type to lead a grand jury investigation for the sole purpose of hurting him. In fact, we will support him and try to help him because good government is our goal.
Hope that answers your questions.
Mr Jennings,
You have jumped the shark on several fronts.
In the blog I cited with the bad poll numbers you claimed Mike was going “positive” because his negative campaign was trailing badly. Now you are claiming he really was losing a month ago and turned the election around through negative campaigning? What the heck?
You cannot seriously believe Lykos lost because she spent too much time as DA vs. campaigning or let her guard down. Those ludicrous claims have been the source of great laughter at the courthouse for the past 2 days. She’s been campaigning on the county dime for 3 1/2 years. BTW I have stats on how many cases she has tried as District Attorney: 0. Unlike your polls my numbers are accurate. Lykos never let her guard down. There is no defense for who she is, the way she treated talented, dedicated public servants or her performance as District Attorney.
BTW please take back your Brady challege to the unnamed ex-ADA before he sticks it in a bad place. There was an egregious Brady Violation by a Lykos favorite a couple years ago. It was so bad that an emergency training session was held as a result.
That’s my last post, you can have the last word. Have a good evening.
See there, Vic, I try to be nice and friendly and that is what I get.
Look, I’m not interested in replaying the election, it is over and done with. You obviously want to gloat and see her supporters cower. Not going to happen. It took quite a while for me to learn what she was about, how she kept her campaign promises, how she tried to effect change, and ultimately win my respect and admiration.
You don’t like Judge Lykos. Okay.
My comment about the Brady violation was in response to former-ADA’s bat van comment. Bringing up something else as you did is a diversionary tactic commonly used by people that want to make a point without evidence. As for her not trying a case, I don’t recall ever saying she did, so I fail to see the relevance of your comment. Well, other than as an attack on me, I guess.
You misunderstand what I’m saying because you don’t want to understand. You aren’t the first person not to understand politics and how messaging works. Or timing your message. Or favorables/unfavorables.
I will have a good evening. I enjoy chatting with people that don’t agree with me. I don’t care much for the insults but they don’t affect me one way or the other, they are just a temporary irritant.
Thanks for stopping by.
It is so good to see the District Attorney REMOVED by the voters from office. Too bad we can’t remove all the chump attorneys and investigative staff at the DA office. The office is a dismal failure and continues in the long-standing corrupt culture of Harris County, Texas. The rigged Grand Jury system in Harris County is an abomination of justice. Lets hope that the new District Attorney will clean house. GOOD BYE LYKOS – GOOD RIDDANCE.
I think that there will be a big surprise in November in both the DA’s race as well as the Judges……Those that have their heads in the sand will have another 2008 to worry about…and that is turnout. Look at the demographics of Harris County in 2008 vs 2012….wake up!