This was the most interesting election of my lifetime. One hundred years from now scholars and political pundits will be writing and talking about this particular Presidential election. Donald J. Trump was not only a most unusual candidate, he also had an uncanny ability to read the electorate. You see the left completely imploding and many on the center or moderate right still in bewilderment that someone could be elected without their money or help. I would make the argument that the fact that Trump’s campaign repudiated the establishment was the reason he succeeded. Two years ago, we had an election in Harris County in which establishment Republicans led by Paul Simpson wrestled control of the Harris County Republican Party from social conservatives. Simpson’s election two years ago had a direct impact on Trump’s race in Harris County, which resulted in the largest defeat of the modern Harris County Republican Party. I wanted to look at the presidential race in Harris County because the establishment Republicans who fund and support Paul Simpson did not want Trump to succeed.
I started looking at the canvass and made a few calls. I always check in with Ed Johnson (PCT 440) because technically Ed knows how to move the needle in his precinct. I, of course, had a theory that the #NeverTrumper precinct chairs did worse than those that supported him.
Looking at Ed Johnson’s precinct, a DJT supporter, you can see a result that differed from the overall county result. Ed supported DJT and his results reflected his desire to support him. Ed has always run the numbers for the Harris County Republican Party and we have known each other for more years than either of us are willing to admit. Ed’s resources are very different as a precinct chair. Ed has the ability to track who has and has not voted in his precinct and can use an auto-dialer to call those who haven’t voted. Ed’s software is very sophisticated. Understand that he has lived in the same home for many years and knows many of his voters through school, church, community, and political activities. Let’s look at what he did for DJT in his precinct.
Now, look at Joe Pelati’s precinct. I do not know whether Joe supported DJT or not but it is a different result than Ed’s precinct. Here is someone without the resources of Ed Johnson to message or communicate with his voters in the way Ed does. I know both of these gentlemen and use them as examples because of their involvement in the Harris County Republican Party and the proximity of their precincts. Obviously, Ed Johnson’s messaging in his 
precinct made an impact on the results for DJT. These are “close in” Westside Republican precincts and what I consider to be the heart of where I look for Republican election results. You can tell what is going to happen to Republican voting in Harris County by watching this area.
Let’s look a little further west in Katy. Another party activist and someone engaged in local party politics is Kelly Horsley. Again, Kelly’s GOTV ability is nowhere near Ed’s; but, I do think it is interesting to look at her precinct. Keep in mind that Kelly’s neighborhood is much newer than Ed’s and I suspect that her longevity of knowing her neighbors is vastly different. Although she lives in a Westside Republican stronghold, the results are vastly different than Ed’s precinct. I do want to know if Kelly actively campaigned for Trump or towed Simpson’s party line and chose to not mention Trump and focus on down ballot candidates.
So, let’s look at some more precincts.
The workhorses of the Republican Party are our women’s clubs. We have had some amazing Republican women involved with the Harris County Republican Party. Judith Jones used to have the highest turnout of any precinct in the City of Houston – precinct 289. There were others: Pat McCall, Louise Wing, and, of course, Ann Lee. These women ran their precincts and delivered votes. They met, traded strategies, and competed with each other on voter turnout. They were friends and competitors during a time when the Democrats controlled everything. They turned our county red and kept it that way for years and few know their names. The history of turning our county red is a history every precinct chair should know.
The Harris County Republican Party did not do anything without consulting these women first 
– the party’s version of local control. Every politician in the state darkened their doorsteps. It is an anachronism of times past. The local community-oriented precinct structure was a successful model for years. I say all this because, of course, in a sea of blue, Ann Lee won her precinct for Trump. Ann Lee’s precinct is just west of Meyerland by the Jewish Community Center and dominated by Clinton precincts on all sides. Ann Lee was a strong Trump supporter and a convention delegate. We sit next to each other at the Downtown Pachyderm and never do I fail to learn something from her and her great spirit.
Republicans must win the power hook to be successful in Harris County. This hook includes Sarah Davis’s Texas House District 134 and a large Jewish enclave located in Meyerland. Conservative Jewish voters are reliable Republican voters in national elections. Democrats 
have become increasingly hostile to Israel and the country’s political leaders. Conversely, Evangelicals and the Christian right fight to protect Israel. Let’s take a look at the power hook and see what happened to some precincts headed by local party activists. Not surprisingly, Mary Jane Smith lost her precinct to Clinton. My guess is that MJS worked against Trump. The residents of Mary Jane Smith’s precinct can tell you what her message was for Trump. Experience has told me not to listen to her.
I also looked at precinct 133 led by precinct chair Kent Adams aka Mr. Sarah Davis. Kent’s precinct overwhelmingly supported Hillary Clinton and, I suspect, voted for Sarah. I imagine that Kent failed to support Trump believing that this would help his wife’s campaign. I think that it is important to note that Kent supported Devon Anderson’s campaign and Sarah endorsed and promoted Devon Anderson. Ironically, the Andersons supported Ann Johnson, Sarah’s 2012 uber-liberal general election opponent. I am sure that I will get an explanation someday.
Republicans were crushed in the hook. Another #NeverTrumper in this area is Precinct Chair David Gratvol. Although David’s precinct is a little east of what I consider the hook, I am throwing his precinct in here because he is a big Sarah Davis and Paul Simpson supporter. Also, when the Access Hollywood tape was released, David bet me that Trump would go down in defeat. Had I lost this bet, David would have been eating at Tony’s on my dime.
Paul Simpson and the consultant advising him, Kevin Shuvalov, made a tactical decision to run against the President-Elect. Both men did this believing the polls showing that Trump would hurt the down ballot races in Harris County. They treated the entire county as a microcosm of HD 134 – Sarah Davis’s House District. The truth is that the entire county is not reflective of HD 134. Senate District 7, parts of West Houston, Kingwood, and the Clear Lake area voted Trump. The party messaging left little reason for social conservatives to come to the polls and vote down-ballot.
I believe there are a lot of reasons for this failure and the precinct chairs had little or nothing to do with the messaging decisions of the county party. These decisions were made by Simpson, Shuvalov, and their establishment financiers who did not like Trump. The establishment financiers like Norm Adams and Dick Weekley oppose Trump’s strong stand on illegal immigration because they need cheap illegal labor to operate their businesses.
Certainly, Ted Cruz and Devon Anderson were problematic to the local election results too. I do think that many precincts were winnable; but, Simpson’s messaging killed the party and down-ballot races. Understand these are my conclusions following a cursory review of the canvass and I write this for discussion purposes. We can have a well-funded party lacking principals or a principled party with few funds. It worked for Trump!
I have added some other precinct results I found interesting.
A few facts.
1. The most popular Democrat in Harris County got fewer votes than Hillary Clinton.
2. The least popular Democrat in Harris County got more votes than the most popular Republican.
3. The least popular Republican in Harris County got more votes than Donald Trump.
4. Turnout is considerably higher in Presidential elections than any other election.
5. Many voters in Presidential years only care about the top of the ticket, and there are relatively few crossover votes (Clinton voters who vote for Republicans or Trump voters who vote Democrat).
Given all that, I don’t see how you can possibly conclude, considering how unpopular Clinton was even within her own party, that Donald Trump didn’t seriously drag down the vote for Republicans countywide.
Essentially, Simpson and Shuvalov got it right. Running a strong countywide pro-Trump campaign would have hurt the county even worse.
You are correct in asserting that the whole county does not vote as HD 134. It may have been that a targeted pro-Trump message in just those precincts where Trump support was stronger might have resulted in a better turnout in those districts, and better county-wide results. That might have saved Mike Sullivan. I doubt it would have saved any of the Republicans who finished down near Trump.
And let me add that messaging on the county level is overrated. What counts most is organization. Fortunately for us, the Democrats didn’t organize very well at all, or we’d have been butchered, to the point where we wouldn’t have just been swept, but in serious danger in the next Gubernatorial year as well. They certainly were not organized in 2014, or Gilbert Pena would have never won the seat that he lost this year by 60-40. The fundamental question we should be asking in the wake of this election is this:
Did anyone approach the county party office offering to assist with winning this election, and either get turned away, or shuffled into a role where their efforts went to waste?
If the answer to that is yes, then we need to make serious changes, and that could include new leadership. If the answer to that is no, then we’re all engaging in so much scapegoating and fingerpointing.
Sign me, Jeff Larson, precinct 349
Turnout; 60.34{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}
Trump: 451 votes (58.7{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986})
Clinton: 317 votes (41.2{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986})
Jeff, I left out certain areas that were heavily Pro-Trump and looked in what I call the swing areas. I and others pointed out numerous times that our party chair would not even mention Trumps’ name. Around the country people who followed this path were crushed. If you have read the blog over a four year period Devon Anderson should have been on everyone’s radar. I personally have been called by numerous elected officials who said we were completely right about the DA. Rick Perry had a choice between Devon Anderson and another person to replace her late husband. He chose badly that day for everyone in Harris County. Some knew exactly what the outcome would be. Paul listens to Allen Blakemore and that was also once again a disaster. Paul and company have failed to learn the Briscoe Cain lesson from the last election. This lesson is an old one when you look at Chuck Rosenthal and Blakemore’s other clients that routinely cost the party elections. I figure one more shallacking should just about do it for Paul. Then we have no one in office but Paul gets to talk data points to people. I will get credit for not writing “I told you so articles”.
Jeff Larsen,
This has me shaking my head:
Every. Single. Republican. Lost.
But Simpson/Shuvalov got it right?
DJ
Here is another data point for you. I placed a flyer on every door in my precinct and recommended that people review the State of Texas platforms of both parties and vote a straight ticket based upon which party best reflects their values. I did this knowing that I have a very Republican precinct. Here are the results:
David Wilson
Precinct 0923
Votes Cast: 3536
Voter Turnout: 75.96{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}
Trump: 1782
Clinton: 712
Here’s more:
Straight Ticket Voting:
County Wide:
Total: 887,071 – 40.6{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}
Republican: 401,663 – 18.4{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}
Democrat: 472,030 – 21.6{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}
Precinct 0923:
Total: 1,923 – 71.6{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}
Republican: 1,457 – 41.2{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}
Democrat: 446 – 12.6{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}
While it is only one data point on this subject, I would like to believe that Precinct Chairs CAN influence the voters in their precincts. With that said, I suggest you quit trying to place blame, (that is very easy to do), and start offering good solid suggestions on how to change the outcome. As Jeff Larson mentioned above, I doubt that any honestly constructive suggestion was ever turned down or ignored by HCRP.
Dave, see above response.
I don’t see the positive suggestions in your responses
Dave, you and Paul both never saw the positive responses for four years. Some people have to be utterly crushed to get it, there are some that never do.
Maybe it’s time to replace some precinct chairs.
Good luck with that……..it’s hard enough to get the position filled in the first place let alone try to find someone to run against one that is already there………
I pulled the numbers from 6 precincts in all the countywide races, north, south, east, west, white, black and Hispanic. In each race, I just looked at total votes cast for the Republican candidate, not under vote or percentage. The norm in a presidential election is that the Republican nominee for president is the top vote getter, as people cone out to vote for President who do not come out for governor, city council, school board, water district, etc. In NONE of the precincts was Trump the top vote getter. In three of them, he was dead last. Two of those, coincidentally, were Ed Johnson and Ann Lee’s precincts.
Yes, there were parts of the county where Trump did not hurt the ticket. But in the rest of it, he was poison.
I’m Tom Zakes and I approve this message.
Can you imagine what it would have been like if those on the ballot with him supported him for President. I do need to back and look at who in the County did support Trump and whether or not they won. I know Valoree did and she won. You are making my argument though. I can not wait to see how well Trump did in the African-American boxes. What A wasted opportunity to break up straight D voting.
I don’t know what “African-American boxes” you are referring to but I can tell you that in Sylvester Turner’s old district, SRD139, Trump did worse than Romney.
Garnet Coleman’s District:
Conservative Jewish voters may be reliable Republican voters in national elections, but not all Jewish voters vote conservative. My precinct (0255) is just south of the United Orthodox Synagogue on South Braeswood and Greenwillow (so, plenty of Jewish voters in my precinct) but it is nonetheless a majority Democrat precinct — even though overwhelmingly more Republicans vote in the Republican primary in the precinct than Democrats vote in the Democrat primary in the precinct. Overall turnout in the precinct this November was 74.29{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} (that’s 1849 ballots cast by 2489 registered voters).
Including the early vote, Clinton won in my precinct (no real surprise there, as Wendy Davis won two years ago). This November’s overall straight party vote ended up being D532, R457, but on Election Day itself, the JBC tapes show that the straight party vote was R171, D125 — and that Trump was the *only* Republican to not win the Election Day vote in my precinct (Clinton 275, Trump 232, Johnson 43, Stein 7, Write-in 16). Even Devon Anderson got 282 votes to Kim Ogg’s 270.
10 162 717 879
11 146 691 837
69 82 480 562
64 177 814 991
530 95 469 564
662 3171 3833
17{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} 83{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}
Looking at pcts that are primarily Spanish Surname one will find that Trump received about 17{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the vote. There are not many precincts that are not integrated in the Hispanic community, but those five are close.
Looking at African American Pcts that are almost entirely African American one will find numbers
numbers in the Independence Heights are such as 47 for Trump and 1267 for Clinton.
I think it is really hard to compare precincts this way. Joe Pelati’s precinct is inside the loop along Washington Avenue, probably 20 years median age younger than Ed Johnson’s, which is much farther west. Joe’s probably has many more apartment dwellers, although I don’t know for sure. And Joe definitely works his precinct as actively as any of the precinct chairs.
You have a point. I thought Joe lived further West.
Only two of the 50 most populous counties went for Trump,
Tarrant,Tx ( Ft Worth) and Suffolk,NY (Long Island).
Perhaps Steve’s or Gary’s or Jared”s strategy would have worked better than Paul’s,
but given the 20{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} increase in voter registrations, not likely.
Dan, I do not know how you find the answer on whether or not it was a strategic mistake to run against Trump. David Jennings and I have debated the point among-st our selves for awhile. I do know with the hard working work ethic of our community, the recent energy industry layoffs, and the pro-business climate of Harris County the Trump message would have resonated with many. Trump did not need Harris County and anti-Trump forces were many. Establishment Republican themes were the order of the day and with the “Harris County Works” messaging. I do know Harris County is getting lost in the establishment world in an anti-establishment movement and sentiment nationally. The disaster that was the election in 2016 could very likely occur again in 2018 if social and fiscal conservatives are not brought back into the fold. The things to watch or whether or not Patrick primaries Abbott and who the Dems. run for Governor in Texas. Do not underestimate the Dems in Texas to shoot themselves in the foot too. I have stocked up on popcorn.