Robert Miller had an interesting blog post this morning about the importance of the urban vote in the Texas Republican primary and ultimately picking statewide winners.
The Republican primary vote has come to be dominated by the three corners of the Texas triangle. In 2010, the Houston area[1] cast 19.34{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of Republican primary votes; DFW[2] cast 25.29{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}; and the Austin/San Antonio corridor[3] cast 14.36{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}. In 2012, the Houston area cast 21.51{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of Republican primary votes; DFW cast 21.25{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}; and the Austin/San Antonio corridor cast 13.95{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}.
It is very important to read his footnotes to understand what he is talking about because those of us in “Houston” know we have a major problem.
“Houston” for purposes of this analysis means the Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) consisting of Austin, Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery, San Jacinto and Waller counties.
The problem is that the Harris County Republican Party, which should be the driving force behind all Texas politics, is a mess of inflated egos and exclusion. County Chair Jared Woodfill has actually managed to shrink the party’s influence in the Texas Republican primary even as the county itself has experienced record growth. Here are the facts:
Since Woodfill took office in 2002, the share of Harris County primary voters in the Texas Republican primary has dropped from 13..5{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} to 11.1{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}:
And this happened even as the population of Harris County was booming:
Unless and until we get new leadership at the top of the Harris County Republican Party, this trend will continue.
You cannot keep minorities, gays, and young people out of your political party and expect it to grow and continue to win elections. Think about that when you choose a party chairman next March.
HCRP is a symptom of a much larger looming catastrophe.
Question: is it the issues themselves or our unprecedented preoccupation with social issues like those mentioned above (while our civil liberties and economic freedoms get trashed) – which is really bringing about the decline of America?
HCRP is a symptom of a much larger looming catastrophe.
Question: is it the issues themselves or our unprecedented preoccupation with social issues like those mentioned above (while our civil liberties and economic freedoms get trashed) – which is really bringing about the decline of America?
“Unless and until we get new leadership at the top of the Harris County Republican Party, this trend will continue” — We *absolutely* need new leadership at the top of the HCRP! That’s why Paul Simpson has announced that he will be a candidate for Harris County Republican Party Chair in the spring 2014 primary. I’m sure he would appreciate your donations of time, talent, and/or treasure. Go to http://simpsonforgopchair.com/ and put your money where your mouth is!
Erich, I’ll be happy to compare donations of time, talent, and/or treasure with you when it comes to ousting Jared Woodfill. Anytime. So you can take your insinuation and put it where the sun don’t shine.
As for Paul, he’s a good man and has some good ideas. Others are running, some that haven’t announced. It may be that I don’t help a specific candidate until the runoff or it may be that I choose one and run with it. But rest assured, I do a lot more than talk.
To all:
I am sure Mr. Miller’s figures and grafts are correct, but diagnosing the cause of Harris County’a weakening republican vote is much more difficult than saying we need to invite in the gay’s, young and minorities.
Also, blaming over attention to the social issues, while our civil liberties get trashed, for the Republican Party’s problems is a red herring. I assume Mr. Jarvis is referring primarily to the fight over abortion; however, there is no civil liberty more fundamental than “the right to life.” We can argue over at what point abortion becomes murder; but, if one believes late-term or even partial birth abortions are not murder then they are the ones out of step and should leave the party . Concern with parental rights and public education might be seen as attention to social issues, but aren’t these issues also tied to civil liberties? So, Mr. Jarvis what are the social issues that the Republican Party is over concerned with that interfere with concentrating on civil liberties and economic issues?
Anyone only interested in the economic issues, should just admit they are a RINO. They can be in step with those in control of the national party apparatus whom are only concerned with doling out the money. And, you must also admit you are willing to prostitute yourself for the almighty dollar. To you I issue this warning: Sooner or later the social issues will impact your life and you will find their successful resolution cannot be determined on the basis of economics.
Moving on to calls for bringing gays, young people and minorities into the republican party, it is a lot easier to say we need to do it than to explain under what criteria we should do it and how we should do it. I look forward to an explanation from those advocating such action. In making your explanation, remember without the support of the fundamentalist and tea party types there will be no republican victories for the foreseeable future.
Don, your comment highlights the problem that Republicans have here and nationally.
Your primary concern seems to be abortion. If you have read anything I’ve written, I’m just as pro-life as you are and have been actively in that movement since the early ’80’s. But unlike you, I don’t demonize people that are not quite as pro-life as I am. Your juvenile use of “RINO” is a prime example. Just like when we were little kids and if the guy that owned the ball didn’t get his way, he took his ball home. Most social conservatives are unwilling to work with other groups but they sure want the other groups to vote for them.
Abortion isn’t the only social issue. Gay marriage is one. The idiotic war on drugs and resulting police state is another. Loss of fourth amendment rights is another. And I could go on.
But you don’t want “those people” in “your” party. And it is going to be the death of “your” party. Just like “those people” can’t win elections without you, you can’t win elections without “those people”.
I can explain how to draw out the conservatives among those groups to you but you don’t want to listen, so I won’t waste my time. Just check in and read, perhaps you’ll be open-minded enough to listen.
BTW, those numbers and graphs aren’t Miller’s, they’re mine. And they are accurate. That’s what happens when you exclude people from “your” party.
In 1988, I volunteered as a deputy election inspector for Secretary of State Jack Rains. Our assignment was in deep east Texas, in Newton County. Along with another inspector, we traveled through most of the 20 precincts in the county where paper ballots were being cast. That evening, we watched as the results were posted at the county courthouse on high-tech poster board with a high tech marks a lot.
An old-timer at the courthouse was shaking his head looking at the results, because although there were precincts that Dukakis had gotten 99 out of 101 votes cast, and Bush 41 only carried one box on the shores of retiree-laden Toledo Bend, the county-wide total for Dukakis was about 66{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}. The old timer told me that if a democrat wasn’t getting at least 75{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} in Newton County, he would go down in flames nationwide.
Like much of rural Texas at the time, there was only one real election in Newton County, the primary. If a candidate lost then, his only remedy was to run as a write-in.
There has been a transformation in the state of Texas since then, with county after county turning to vote for Republicans, not only in national elections, but also at the state and local level.
With that change, there has been an increase in participation in the GOP primary throughout the state along with an overall drop off in participation in the democrat primary.
But if you compare participation in the Harris County primary and statewide, you will see a general upward trend in both, but you will also see that statewide percentages have been higher than Harris County percentages for as far back as the numbers are posted on the internet:
Year Harris County GOP {997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} Reg. Voters Texas GOP {997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} Reg. Voters
(In thousands) (In thousands)
1998 5.08 1,703 5.35 11,160
2000 9.46 1,753 9.70 11,612
2002 5.00 1,852 5.09 12,218
2004 4.54 1,809 5.60 12,265
2006 4.44 1,871 5.15 12,723
2008 9.45 1,810 10.68 12,752
2010 8.49 1,882 11.4 13,023
2012 8.62 1,902 11.09 13,065
(These numbers are from Stan Stanart’s website and the Secretary of State website).
So although there are many with an irrational hatred of Jared Woodfill, the numbers do not bear out this complaint.
And the 2012 totals for Newton County? Republicans swept the county, with numbers ranging from 54 {997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} for Nathan Hecht to 83{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} for Don Willett and David Bradley.
Tom,
Your history lessons are always informative but rarely address the topic at hand, as in your comment on this post.
Fact: Harris County Republicans have lost influence in the Texas Republican primary since Jared Woodfill took office. Those numbers are straight from the county clerk and secretary of state.
Ever thought about addressing the topic at hand?
Furthermore, who do you know that has a “hatred” of Jared Woodfill, much less an “irrational hatred”?
Why this “unprecedented preoccupation” with abandoning our positions on social issues? Don’s correct in that the right to life is our most fundamental right. If that’s not a starting point nothing else really matters. If you’re willing to compromise on that fundamental liberty then there are only two choices: 1) transform the Republican Party into a socially liberal entity and lose its pro-life base, or 2) accept that the Republican Party does not compromise on that fundamental liberty and form your own socially liberal, fiscally conservative party.
The one thing I am not willing to compromise on is the fundamental right to life. If “your” party is that party then it is not my party. I don’t care if the party I vote for ever wins another election, or if I even cast another vote. I’ll sleep well knowing that I did the right thing.
For what shall it profit a man, if he shall gain the whole world, and lose his own soul?
Mark,
This is getting old. You continue to attack me with words that I never said. This post doesn’t even mention abortion. I’ll put my record on that issue up against yours or anyone else’s. But I’m not going to argue with you about abortion on a post that doesn’t even mention it. You and Don seem to have the same way of dealing with problems in the HCRP – bring up abortion! Yippee.
Forget the three legged stool we always hear about. You want a pedestal and you want to shout from it about those of us that are sinners in your eyes. We live in a secular society and a political party is, by definition, secular. If it tickles your leg to say things about me that I didn’t say, so be it. But I’m going to continue to try and reach people that agree with me on most of the issues of the day.
I don’t believe the latter to be the case. I assume by “those people” you mean pro-abortion and/or pro-homosexual voters. In my opinion, the decline in the party has less to do with these “big tent” issues and more to do with party leadership shifting toward the Left on fiscal issues over the last 13 years. I point to Tom “there’s no fat left to cut” Delay as an example. The party has been bleeding fiscally conservative voters for well over a decade. If you want them back you must return to fiscal conservatism. Or you can exacerbate the problem by driving off the socially conservative voters as well.
Mark,
There you go again. Read the post.
It is a joke to say that the problem with the HCRP is that “leaders” shifted to the left. Complete nonsense. Jared has never shifted to the left and is a strong fiscal conservative. Jared has supported the party in excluding minorities, gays, and young people. Don’t beleive me? Ask a few.
Attack you??? Dude. Where in either post did I attack you? And you mentioned abortion before I made my first comment.
The point I was trying to make, obviously lost on you because of your irrational defensiveness, is that abandoning the long-held positions on social issues will not save the HCRP, and that a more pragmatic approach would be a return to fiscal conservatism.
You keep telling me I must moderate my values for the good of the party. I keep telling you I’m not willing to do that, and because of that, I’m Fred Phelps’ twin brother. The stupid thing is we have always agreed on one thing: that Woodfill has to go.
Have fun with “your” party.
Mark,
Not one single time have I ever asked you are any other person to “moderate” or “abandon” your position on abortion. Not. one. single. time.
Pro-life positions are not going to drive away minority voters. Homosexuals are 3-4{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} max of the population. 99{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of them will always vote Democrat. Excuse me but I’m not wasting any of my time worrying about a 0.03{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} increase in votes. Young people are actually more pro-life than old farts like us.
Mark,
Once again, I urge you to read what I wrote. Not a single mention of abortion. If you think that Republicans can win without reaching the conservative leaning people that are minorities, gays, and young people by excluding them from particiapation, good luck with that in “your” party.
Once again, I did not mention abortion. Don Sumners brought that up because is what he likes to do when he doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
You’re joking, right? You’ve been telling me to shut up about it for years.
I never said anything of the sort. What I did say was that moderating on social issues, while it may attract some “minorities, gays, and young people”, would lose net voters by losing social conservatives.
Mark,
No, I’m not joking. Not one single time have I told you to moderate or abandon your position on any issue, including abortion.
What I have said is that we have to work with people that do not share our positions on any single issue, or even on a couple of issues. Reagan used 80/20,that’s fine, whatever ratio you choose is your’s to choose. But limiting yourself to only supporting people that think exactly like you does two things. (1) It eliminates the possibility that you will ever have an influence on their position (see Ed Hubbard’s writing about his long time pro-choice friend that eventually became pro-life) and (2) it alienates them so that they choose to vote with someone who might only agree with them 50{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the time but accepts them for who they are.
Again, not one time have I ever told you or anyone else to abandon or moderate your position on aborition or any other issue.
So you’re saying I can keep my position, I just can’t advocate for it. Go shut up and sit in the corner, so to speak. Why thank ye, massa. That’s mighty white of ya.
I promise you this: I won’t ever mention the “A” word on your blog again. I’ll leave you alone to build your Pee Wee’s Big Top Tent Party. Just one request – please don’t send the bearded lady to block walk in my neighborhood 😉 Hell, I burned my voter ID card after the last election anyway.
That’s really nice, Mark. Once again, saying stuff that I didn’t say. “shut up and sit in the corner”? Yeah, right. If you think I’ve done that or said that, you haven’t read what I’ve written, you just respond the way you want to.
As for your other reference, about 9 people in the world know about that, the majority of them on an email list. So while you might relish in the fact that you are really good at slamming someone, I’ll only respond by telling you that I’d never wish that surgery on anyone.
As they say, who needs enemies when you thought you had friends.
Boy has this post stirred up the comments. I brought up the abortion issue because I suspected Mr. Jarvis was primarily referring to it when he criticized republicans for spending to much effort on social issues and not enough on civil liberties and economic issues. My purpose was to show that concerns about civil liberties and social issues are closely connected, if not the same.
Upon reflection, perhaps categorizing republicans interested only in economic issues as RINOs is not exactly correct, but I think most readers got my drift. I disagree that my comments were juvenile. They only reflect my belief that morality sometimes has to come at the expense of economics.
I am not trying to keep newcomers out of the party, but I do not favor welcoming newcomers that do that have views that are compatible with the party. Thus comes the difficulty I referred to of attracting new republican voters without destroying the party’s principles. The plans for accomplishing this are those for which I am waiting. Saying we need to do it is not the same as getting it done unless you are a democrat.
No, Don, referring to people that disagree with you as RINO’s is juvenile. Period.
Yes, you are trying to keep people out of the party. Successfully, I might add. The day of reckoning is coming.
There is no need to destroy the party’s principles in order to attract new voters. None at all. But our rhetoric and inclusion must change. Are you so insecure of your beliefs that you think adding a few precinct chairs that have moderately different thoughts than you will cause the party to shift positions? I’m not.
I guess I went from b to c without explaining where a fits with b.
Your complaint is that as a percentage of the total primary votes cast, Harris County’s percentage has shrunk.
In the meantime, Harris County has gone from having 15.3 percent of the registered voters in the state to having 14.6 percent. So although Harris County population has been growing, so has the entire state.
I was pointing out that part of the reason for the decline in percent is that it is actually a growth in participation in other areas of the state. As Harris County went from solid democrat to mixed to solid Republican and back to mixed, we have seen Galveston, Chambers and Liberty Counties switch from solid democrat to solid Republican. In sales terms, what we are seeing is a shift in “market share.”
Since you want statistics about the inevitability of the Obama Wave, I pulled the numbers for Bexar County (San Antonio) Dallas County, El Paso County, Harris County, Hidalgo County (McAllen), Midland County, Nueces County (Corpus Christi), Tarrant County (Fort Worth), Travis County (Austin) and Webb County (Laredo) from 2004, 2008 and 2012.
Of those ten, Bush won six. All ten saw a decline in percentage for McCain, who won only three of them. But Bexar, Dallas, El Paso, Hidalgo, Nueces and Webb counties saw no improvement or further decline in 2012, while Harris, Midland, Tarrant, and Travis bounced back, even if only slightly.
As for the idea that we are keeping minorities, sodomites and young people out of the party, the Greater Houston and Downtown Houston Pachyderm clubs are both having outreach themed programs this week. I have added three young people to the voting rolls of the party during Jared’s tenure as chair, though one of them has since transferred his registration to Florida, which is much more of a swing state than Texas.
Jared also is adding to the party with his own family, but I saw a criticism of him in a different blog complaining that he was not at an event last Saturday morning. I have spoken to people who lost in the 2012 election that “they will not open another e-mail from Jared unless the subject line is that he is resigning.” I have heard from others that they will no longer support the party financially because of their dislike of Jared. I think that counts as taking one’s marbles and going home.
Tom, thank you for proving my point. The fact is that the Harris County Republican Party has declined under Jared’s leadership and your own stats prove it, as if mine weren’t enough.
Better leadership would have improved our chances or allowed us to win. Statistical fact, especially if you believe Mark’s theory that young people are pro-life (I don’t but that’s another argument for another day). With our propulation growth, there is no reason whatsover for a decline in either voter registration or voter participation in Republican primaries.
Ah, so now you are going with “sodomites” in reference to gays, lesbians, or homosexuals. You do realize, I hope, that sodomy isn’t exclusive to those groups? Are you now saying that heterosexuals that choose to engage in sodomy are not welcome in the HCRP?
Goodness. How do I even respond to that?
I honestly have no idea what you’re talking about.
Yeah. Nice.
I’ve pored over my comment and I still don’t have a clue. If you’re going to accuse me of something it would be helpful for me to know what you’re talking about.
David, thank you for pointing out that “Abortion isn’t the only social issue.” (http://www.bigjollypolitics.com/2013/07/29/harris-county-republican-party-influence-shrinks-under-jared-woodfills-leadership/#comment-15650)
In fact, abortion isn’t mentioned in the article, or in my comment… which maybe says something about the turn these comments took.
In any case, I stand by my point that focusing on the social issues to the exclusion of civil liberties and economic freedom is a distraction, and it is destroying our country.
“Erich, I’ll be happy to compare donations of time, talent, and/or treasure with you when it comes to ousting Jared Woodfill. Anytime. So you can take your insinuation and put it where the sun don’t shine”
Wow, David, leave it to you to take Erich’s invitation for people to donate their time, talent, and/or treasure towards the election of a worthy candidate for Harris County Chair, and assume that he is insinuating something about you. You have been overly sensitive and outright nasty to everyone on this thread.
David and Carl:
From your comments, neither of you carefully read my original post. Carl, I repeat there is no more fundamental civil liberty than the right to life (see the Declaration of Independence). And, there were three social issues (civil liberties) mentioned, not just abortion. David, I specifically and purposely mentioned those favoring the extremes of late-term and partial-birth abortions in my comments about deciding when abortion is murder. I stand against the local party accommodating the appointment of precinct chairs that do not oppose these extreme abortions.
David, will you feel better if I categorize republicans that label social issues (civil liberties) as troublesome to the advancement of their economic agenda, as “establishment” republicans rather than “RINOs”? No matter how you categorize them, they are a hindrance to creating a party know for caring about people, not just making money. I seem to remember something about camels and needles.
As for me, I think my record shows I am also more than actively engaged with economic issues. Did you miss my op-ed in last Sunday’s Chronicle urging the City of Houston to exercise common-sense criteria in the approval of tax abatements? On July 11, the Chronicle carried my lengthy letter disagreeing with a Chronicle editorial urging equal economic outcomes rather than equal economic opportunities and on June 8, the Chronicle published my op-ed urging the City of Houston to increase the over-65 exemption for the 2013 year. Their subsequent approval of the increase culminated two years of my efforts to get the exemption increased. I have a lengthy, easily verified record of fighting tax increases and unnecessary government expenses way back into the 1990’s.
I personally think it is time for Jared Woodfill to step down, but the republican’s problems in Harris County are primarily demographic. Personal anecdotal evidence of this is that many of my friends I grew up with in Houston now live not just outside the city, but outside the county as well. They have voted with their feet, in many cases leaving, as I did, so their children could receive a good public school education. Others have left afterwards seeking a better quality of life. Only I have returned.
I repeat, I want to see a plan of how we bring newcomers into the party, not just talk of what we need to do. There are ways to win elections without being in a party do do not agree with and cannot be proud of.
David, I am going to sign-off from your website. In my opinion your behavior in responding to the responses to this post has been totally over the top. You have assumed people are making personal attacks against you, when they weren’t, and your responses have been petty and yes “juvenile,” the same thing you accused me of. When numerous responses showed interest in one of your posts, you blew it.
Don,
I’m not going to take a lecture from a guy that paid the slates to get elected, spread gossipy rumors about his opponent, and then whined when Mike Sullivan paid to get them the next time seriously.
Adios, mo’fo.
Hi, my name is Bob, [Hi Bob!] And I’m a recovering republican. It’s been three years since I’ve voted for a republican politician. [Applause]
I’ve noticed that the word “gay” or “gays” occurs seven times in this post, and in each instance it refers to excluding “gay people” from the HCRP. I think some you folks are missing the boat there. When the HCRP intentionally excludes homosexuals, they become uninviting to an increasing number of heterosexuals like me, who have concluded that a person’s sexual orientation does not warrant discrimination at the hand of government, and that such discrimination needlessly harms that minority without tangible benefit.
In addition to being a recovering republican, I’m also a musician who enjoys finding symbolism in music that may not be readily apparent to others. In the live performance linked below, I see chronicled, a forty+ year struggle of gay Americans against a stubbornly social conservative political machine that until recently, had conveniently and reliably harvested political hay by using an electorally insignificant minority as a “dog whistle” sort of tool to retain support and votes from its like minded base. That is no longer the case.
If your curious, watch this four minute video that features members of the Notre Dame marching band, and see if you also find the symbolism I see:
It begins with the four members of “OK, Go” in uniforms, one of which is marching in a sloppy and unconventional, seemingly unguided manner.
The are soon joined by a few camouflaged (closeted?) musicians. The harmony builds, and that small group becomes larger as more camouflaged marchers rise and play, while from behind the trees more conventionally uniformed (straight?) musicians appear in the background and begin to blow their horns, increasing the volume, tightening the voicing, and broadening the harmony to eventually span several octaves.
Then, “the morning comes” and a Drum Major appears, meticulously dressed in contrasting white, and begins marching in a strict and traditional 6:5 military stride. He leads the larger group toward the wayward quartet, whose leader dances and beats his drum while loudly singing into the Drum Major’s deaf ears.
Ultimately, the Drum Major continues to think he leads, completely oblivious to the more contemporary style of music and marching that is happening behind him, now in full number, voicing, volume, and harmony.
The Drum Major is the HCRP.
“You can’t keep letting it get you down
You can’t keep dragging that weight around
…Let it go, this too shall pass.
Bob, do you keep a hanky in hand for when you finish writing one of these, um, exercises?
No GTO, a hankie is not required. My interest and motivation in penning my rants is based on objective logic and a deeply held morality that suggests to me that all human beings have an innate right to equal treatment under the law, and that it is wrong for xenophobic social conservatives to exploit homosexuals for purposes of pure political greed via instituting state sanctioned discrimination.
In my haste to post, I failed to mention the fabulous counter-melodies that appear shortly after the
delusional HCRPDrum Major enters the scene. Whoever scored that version of “OK, Go‘s” catchy tune has my respect.Meanwhile, on a (thankfully) obscure and insular blog, the far right authoritarian hold outs are having fun sliding down an irrational slope that equates equality for all with humans marrying goats.
As usual. My apologies for wasting the casual reader’s time.