The circular firing squad is sending in reinforcements and increasing the attacks within the Harris County Republican Party. Paul Bettencourt and his team at KSEV Radio must have received enough positive feedback from their attacks on Harris County Judge Ed Emmett that it encouraged them to double down. Sen. Dan Patrick even tied him to the Sunset Advisory Commission’s last minute recommendation to pull appointment authority to the Port of Houston Authority from the county and city and give it solely to the Governor. That is a terrible idea but illustrative of the animosity within Harris County Republican Party circles and shows the extent to which opponents of Judge Emmett will go to undermine him.
As I noted earlier, the purpose of the attacks is so that the small group that controls the Harris County Republican Party can maintain their control. Yesterday, the group at KSEV brought in Gary Polland to help in the attack on Emmett. Soon enough, we’ll hear from Terry Lowry and Steven Hotze. Those three control the slate endorsement racket and stand to lose hundreds of thousands of dollars if the party expands its reach, watering down their power. Hey, some people think it is better to be the big fish in a small pond than it is to be in the ocean with a bunch of other fish the same size. The problem for them is that the pond is shrinking and sooner or later, they will run out of oxygen and disappear. It will happen, because, as Robert Miller noted, you cannot swim against a demographic tide.
The most disturbing thing about the attacks yesterday was that Sen. Patrick repeated his assertion that we should not expand into districts that we cannot win, using the example of Sheila Jackson Lee and Gene Green. He claimed that running an opponent against her increases her turnout and hurts Republican judges. At this point, Bettencourt chimed in and proclaimed that “no one in Harris County knows the numbers better than I do and that is true”. Well, in fact, it isn’t true and it is easily demonstrated with facts that it isn’t true. I’ve done it before and I’ll do it again now. Methinks that Tio Pablo has become so full of himself that he no longer understands the data he is reviewing.
Their basic claim was that Sheila Jackson Lee got 40,000 more votes than Gene Green did and the reason is that Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee stirred up her community because she had an opponent. First off, Tio Pablo needs to check his calculator because Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee received 60,170 more votes than Rep. Gene Green did, according to the results from Harris County Clerk Stan Stanart. But more important to their theory is the fact that Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee had an opponent and her vote totals actually went down from 2008 and Rep. Gene Green had no opponent and his numbers actually went up. Fact. Jack.
Here is a chart of Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee’s vote totals and percent of vote for the past seven elections:
What it shows is that she is a voter turnout machine and that it doesn’t matter whether or not she has an opponent, and that when Republicans do have an opponent, they HELP all Republicans on the ballot, not hurt them. The historically high 44,015 votes for Republican Sean Seibert is the result of the hard work and efforts of those of us who refused to listen to this nonsense for the past three elections, particularly two-time candidate John Faulk. Those votes dropped straight to the bottom line of Republican candidates. And it was done without taking resources away from other candidates.
Now take a look at Rep. Gene Green’s vote totals and percent of vote for the past seven elections:
Notice anything? First off, Rep. Gene Green is not a voter turnout machine. He wins because Republicans don’t even try most of the time – those of us that live on the Southeast side of Harris County know that Republicans have traditionally ignored us. This also illustrates the difference between turnout in the black community versus the Latino community.
But look real hard at the 2012 turnout, when Rep. Gene Green had NO Republican opponent. You know, because Sen. Patrick and Tio Pablo told people it was fruitless. Now look at the huge overlap between Rep. Gene Green’s CD-29 and Texas House District 144.
Now take a look at the election results from HD-144:
[table id=13 /]
Republican David Pineda lost by 1,561 votes. What do you think would have happened if a Republican had ignored the advice of Sen. Dan Patrick and Paul Bettencourt and had been willing to do the hard work of running in CD29?
The idea that Republicans should not try to compete in minority areas will be the death of the party. But more important, by ignoring these areas and leaving them to the ideas of liberalism, we are abandoning the future of the country. In his speech at the Robert Beren Academy this past Thursday on the issue of school choice, Sen. Dan Patrick stated that it was immoral to force children to attend failing schools. Isn’t it just as immoral to not give children in minority areas the opportunity to learn the concepts of liberty, freedom, and opportunity? Instead of abandoning the Asian, Latino, Black, and GLBT communities, we need to expand our efforts to reach them!
Yes, it appears that a civil war is brewing in the Harris County Republican Party. Fortunately, Judge Emmett is well funded and is a proven fund-raiser. Perhaps it is time for an all out war about the future of the party. If this happens, the Democrats will win sooner than expected but so what? Without structural changes in the Harris County Republican Party, they are going to win sooner or later anyway.
Will the big fish decide that it is better to live in an ocean rather than dying a slow, agonizing death in their increasingly smaller pond? I surely do hope so.
The big fish will not change. They are big fish and should not have to, know more, swim faster, and are thus the only ones to decide if anyone should run anywhere.( or should I say swim). It is a control issue, I think because those who will run against someone like Queen Sheila, are more idealistic perhaps, or less likely to be herded by the big fish. Oh dear I am getting my metaphors mixed…they cannot be allowed to exist, be funded, try, have separate clear thinking. This is politics…… it must be a disease that takes good men and destroys their souls.
Fosdick and Barney misfire again!
Very good analysis, unfortunately.
Ed, I have never liked Dan Patrick. He is on record as saying that the only thing that concerns him is abortion! That said, he is a typical single issue person. Damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead My opinion is that if you do wrong this side of the veil, you will be counted. In the meantime we have to work with the Universe as it was left to us.. Maybe God should not have screwed up in the first place!
Funny how it is the Republican establishment is at war with itself and not the tea party conservatives. We in the tea party conservative movement tend to fight over principles – not power politics.
Dale, dang, dude, normally I try not to argue with anyone, but dang! Are you kidding? Seriously, you think that the current incarnation of tea parties focus on issues? Sheesh.
Problem with this analysis: Boundary lines were different in 2012 from 2008 in CD 18 and CD 29. Once the canvass comes out, the precinct by precinct results can be compared.
There is no problem with the analysis Tom. That is raw data and the maps are 2012. Fact is that Gene Green had no Republican opponent and had more votes than he did in 2008. SJL had an opponent and had fewer votes. That directly contradicts Tio Pablo’s assertion. Denial is not a good thing.
David,
There are two things the Republican Party will have to do to unseat Gene Green.
1. Find a suitable Hispanic Candidate and play the demographics. Preferably someone
from Galena Park – Channelview – Jacinto City – Cloverleaf area.
2. Start working now and show up at every Community Event. Press the flesh and
more importantly listen to the everyday wants and desires of the people in this district
and not the playbook from SD-7 or the trailer park elements of the Tea Party.
Gene Green should have been knocked off by a Hispanic Democrat in the primaries years
ago, but he is an effective campaigner and a good listener. The pathetic Republican candidate
in 2010 found out just how tough it is to beat Gene in a year when Harris County Republicans did
fairly well.
Gene will eventually retire, but expect him to be replaced by Carol Alvarado or Sylvia Garcia. After
that there will be little or no chance to change things.
Simple
Thanks for the excellent analysis—but I guess I am a little prejudiced
This is just so much B.S. If Mr. Emmett wanted to criticize the Party ticket, and distance himself from certain individuals on the ticket, he should never have agreed to be the Chairman of the Victory 2012 committee. Obviously he didn't have the good of the Party, nor Party unity as his goal, but as usual, he was looking out for #1. No credibility, Mr. Emmett!
Ed did not criticize the Party's ticket nor did he distance himself from certain individuals. He denounced a false, misleading mailer. If maintaining integrity is "looking out for #1", then more people should do it.
The mailer wasn't false; every statement on it was true and backed up by facts. That's integrity; I'm sorry if you live in a make-believe world of your own doing, but big Ed was looking out more for his buddy Vince Ryan than he was for our Republican Party candidates. If that is the position he wishes to take, then fine, but don't accept the position of Victory 2012 Chairman if you're going to work against the Party.
No, the mailer contained both false and misleading statements. That is a fact, as I documented in an earlier post. Ed tried to help Robert Talton at every opportunity. I know, because I was present at several of the functions where Ed stood up and asked for people to support Robert because he thought that it was the most important race on the ballot. You simply do not know the facts in this case.
Ed Emmett simply showed his true colors. He was not loyal to the Republican ticket in Harris County. This is not the first time, and it is about time the electorate learns what a traitor to true Harris County Republicans he actually is. Why don't you ask Robert what he thinks?
Those of us who live in CD 18 and SD 6 are used to being ignored by Richmond Avenue. Someday, probably after all the folks from the Sandy disaster and California take over Texas, never mind the Katrina people who are already here, Chairman for Life will realize that without River Oaks money, the only possible power base lies in the precinct chairmen and Tea Party.
This is too much like high school. Back then, it didn’t matter that the captain of the football team was also president of the student council and that the cheerleaders and Homecoming Queen lived in a different world. They could run things and nobody cared. This time, it’s personal.
I am really tired and ready to take care of personal chores I have let slide. Do I have it in me to spend my valuable Saturday in an unfamiliar polling place, just to make sure Carol Alvarado and Sylvia Garcia have a clean election?
It hurts me to admit that a Republican doesn’t stand a chance in this race, which as Tom Z has pointed out, is our best shot ever to put another Elephant in the State Senate. Because of Redistricting, the Law Suit, late primaries and an army of unemployed foot soldiers on the other side, 2012 is turning out to be a political perfect storm. You know why? Because conservatives are too busy, keeping America running.
We don’t have to roll over and take it, but a handful of SD 6 precinct chairmen can’t do it by ourselves. If Bray is our candidate, then we need large number of supporters to get behind him. We can’t afford to have a second Republican candidate on the Special Election ballot. (If you hear of somebody else making noises like he or she might run, please do everything you can to talk that individual out of it!)
Simple, I agree with your points but think that upsetting Gene is a longshot, especially if 2010 is an example. A better candidate would have helped, I guess, but Gene is a very good politician.
You and I are saying the same thing – if we want to win in a community, we have to show up. When we show up, we’ll see that SD7 tactics will not work. Only then can we adjust our tactics to the community.
David: Your unqualified admiration of Judge Emmett is misplaced. Just look at his recent words defending the status quo at the Port. Compare them with Commissioner Raddack’s comments, which even if you don’t agree with his solution, at least recognize that there is a problem with the Port that needs to be corrected. And, where was the republican state senator with the courage to push for reform of the Port? The situation with the cruise ship terminal is shameful. Build a speculative facility and then pay them to come. Don
Shouldn’t the primary loyalty of the County Judge be the people he serves and not one party
faction or the other?
BOTH political parties had contracted this affliction; namely putting their respective party’s interests before the welfare of the folks they were elected to serve.
Simple