Big Jolly Politics

politics in Harris County and Texas

Hope After a Disastrous Election

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The election yesterday were a disaster for republicans. No two ways about it.  However, we shouldn’t be terribly surprised by the results.  Harris County is undeniably a blue county, and the Republicans followed the same model as the past few cycles insofar as how the county party campaigned.  Casting blame does no good.  We need to learn from the election, and make necessary course corrections going forward.

Messaging and Freedom

This cycle was a very odd cycle regarding messaging.  Both parties have a variation of a freedom message.  Normally Republicans have a message of freedom to (religion, speech, economic issues, personal autonomy), and Democrats have a freedom from (discrimination, poverty via social services and economic regulation, climate harm).  This cycle the messaging was reversed.  We argued a freedom from message (crime, inflation) and democrats argued a freedom to (abortion, personal autonomy.)  We saw the predictable results.  The overall political atmosphere nudged the needle right (3-5 point defeats versus 7-9 points last cycle), but only the criminal court races saw any extra movement based on messaging.

Lessons from the Disaster

First and foremost, don’t blame Cindy or HCRP for the disaster.  She/they made the right call on paper insofar as how to message.  It didn’t work, but that doesn’t mean poor decision making occurred.  I have been critical of HCRP in the past, but this isn’t a time they deserve the blame.  We do need to make changes in strategy, tactics, and messaging in the future, but again, on paper, they made the right decision strategy wise.

However, tactics HCRP uses in future elections need to change.  The centralized running judicial campaigns through HCRP is a mistake; and hopefully we now can undisputedly see that the model doesn’t work.  It didn’t work for Simpson, and it didn’t work now.  It’s a bad model. (Solutions in the What Can We Do section below.)

Second, don’t draw the conclusion that abortion is a losing argument.  That’s an easy incorrect conclusion to draw from this cycle with the Dems pushing abortion as their issue.  However, historically, whenever the Supreme Court acts against abortion the left always has a transient bump in support.  Before Covid the only time the abortion rate increased after the immediate aftermath of Roe was a response to the Carhart partial birth abortion ban.  We should have expected a similar bump in democrat support as a reaction to Dobbs, and with the states allowed to make their own laws this is only amplified.  However, it is a transient bump in support.

Also we didn’t engage on the issue.  We abandoned the space to the Democrats, and unsurprisingly they ran wild with the issue to good effect.  Simple engagement on the issue would have blunted some of the impact.  A well conceived strategy of engagement dealing with both the fundamental arguments as well as noting the medical industry’s pushing of abortion like what happened with us – doctors brought up abortion at 31 weeks 6 days on their own motion and persisted until it stressed Rochelle into preterm labor – provides an effective blunting effect to voters who view the issue in the abstract.

A third lesson is red meat issues meant to energize the farther right base doesn’t work in general elections. A corollary is we need more moderate candidates for the premier races.  A focus on CRT was effective in the school board races.  However, that’s a race where only the more engaged segment of the voting population participates in the election.  In the general election red meat issues don’t play well with the general public.  It may work in some specific state house districts, but overall it’s not an effective message for general election purposes. CRT, voter fraud, and the like aren’t winners.

If there is legitimate suspicion of voter fraud then that needs to be carefully evidenced and addressed outside of election windows.  I’m not suggesting we don’t address the problem, but we need to do so outside of when it will become associated with a Democrat and media pushed narrative of conspiracy theory and distract from messaging.  That’s not always going to be possible, but we need to aim to act in a manner that the issue minimizes our messaging.

What Can We Do

Lessons are useless if we don’t learn and adapt, so this leads to the question of what can we do going forward.

As an initial measure we need to talk about solutions.  The freedom from message this cycle didn’t resonate particularly well because we didn’t offer meaningful or detailed solutions to the problems we identified.  Even the hire more law enforcement officers  refrain doesn’t get around the message of soft on crime judges release criminals back onto the streets.  More law enforcement officers doesn’t address the soft on crime judges issue, and voters could see the disconnect.  Detailed solution oriented messaging not only serves a constructive purpose, but it also allows for an acknowledge and pivot type of response.

If the democrats want to use Uvalde as a call for gun control, acknowledge the horror of the situation, and then pivot to a solution that doesn’t involve gun control – something like adding door bolts on the floor to classrooms so shooters cannot enter the classrooms in an active shooter situation.  This steers the conversation away from red flag laws and is a simple, inexpensive, solution to address the problem.  Plus, it compels the democrats to agree with us, or look like they are objecting to reasonable, inexpensive, measures to increase school safety.

A second change we need to make is use a fundamentally different model for campaign type activities in the general elections.  HCRP generally doesn’t have a good presence in persuadable blue areas of the county.  Groups like TARC and individual candidates will appear, but HCRP, by and large, is absent from events in/around Sharpstown as an example while the Southwest Democrats are always present.  Abandoning the space to the democrats doesn’t help persuade voters to our vision.

Right now, not only do we lose the opportunity to spread our message, but it also is bad optics looking like we don’t care about this part of the county.  A focus on presence and we care will help move the general needle in our direction, and frees up candidates to tailor their message to how they want to campaign leading to a cross pollination of messaging along the margins of the message campaign.  The cross pollination will end up appealing to more voters as different iterations of what we believe will resonate with different segments of the voting population.

Thirdly, we need to engage in visible public good.  Nothing speaks to voters more than actively making their lives better in a tangible way.  This can be done either directly by having HCRP directly engage in public service activities, or indirectly by having known republicans engaging in public service activities and HCRP having a presence and/or providing support in the background.  The former has direct benefit, and the latter has indirect “I don’t like republicans, but XXX is a good guy” effect.  Both ways break down barriers, and they provide synergy to a solution oriented messaging campaign.

HCRP, or Individuals will Define the Future

It bears repeating, this cycle’s results shouldn’t be blamed on Cindy or HCRP.  Messaging wise they made the right call on paper.  It just didn’t work out.  We need to focus on the future.  With Commissioner’s Court now firmly in Democrat control we have no effective check to the Democrat’s power.  We also have no functional mouthpiece to carry our message.  The question becomes how do we promote our message going forward.

The void is either going to be filled by HCRP, or individuals will emerge who have a message and that becomes the Republican message.  Obviously, it’s better if HCRP becomes the message bearer given the organization, resources, and status of HCRP.  However, it will require HCRP to not only show a willingness to change course, but also to be open to constructive criticism and insist on a calmer level of demeanor in public discourse.

We don’t have any effective power to shape the direction the county is going to follow for the next four years.  With the disastrous showing yesterday it’s unlikely that we will have meaningful influence on the municipal elections next year.   To begin to gain ground we have to focus on generally moving the needle to the right.  That requires a change in message and strategy philosophy.

Cindy has done a good job getting HCRP structurally better organized, and with candidate recruitment.  If she can show a path forward that is different from what we have been doing and that HCRP has learned lessons from this cycle then she’s a good choice to lead the party going forward.  It’s a natural building off of the structural improvements she’s achieved.

For all our sakes, I hope she does.

Why Chris Daniel Deserves Our Vote

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Chris Daniel was kind enough to discuss his campaign for District Clerk.  Full disclosure, I practice in the district courts to a minor degree, and in the JP courts some (the District Clerk’s office handles electronic submissions to the JP courts), so this race directly interacts with my law practice.  The needless dysfunction with records submission, and in some cases flat out incorrect law – basic concepts such as understanding proper venue – the clerks demonstrate shows the office is in disarray. This level of dysfunction didn’t exist when Chris was in office, and he will be able to correct the issues.

The District Clerk’s Office and Crime

This race is more important than most people realize.  The office is sometimes called the Clerk of the Court in other states, and failures in the office have a direct impact on crime in Harris County.  Courts rely on the District Clerk’s office for a wide ranging set of responsibilities from bond processing at the beginning of the system, to juries at the end of the system, to the information technology systems that underpin the system. The current incumbent has seen spectacular failures in all areas directly leading to criminals being released to the streets.

Information Technology Failure

Starting with the information technology aspect of the office the system had a catastrophic failure when a technology update went wrong.  This resulted in the inability of the courts to process probable cause hearings in a timely manner, and criminals were released as a result of the technology failure.  However, the failure wasn’t just limited to the criminal justice system.  The outage was so pervasive that the 911 system failed.  Think about that.  A loved one has a heart attack or a massive stroke.  You dial 911, but because of a technology error you can’t summon an ambulance to help your loved one.

The problem was so severe, that five department heads, including three elected democrats, openly criticized the way it was handled.  This isn’t partisan republican criticism.  This is elected democrats openly criticizing other elected democrats.  That’s a sign of how much dysfunction is occurring with the District Clerk’s office – problems that were not there when Chris was in office.

This is a problem that Chris indicated wouldn’t occur under his watch because he would have created a cache database that could have been used as a backup to prevent the shutdown from occurring before trying to upgrade the system.  It’s a simple solution that comes from experience, and one that demonstrates that Chris has the foresight and ability to manage the office effectively where the incumbent has failed. Spectacularly. And the failure directly put us all at risk.

Jury System

The jury system is the backbone of the legal system.  Criminals are innocent until proven guilty, and we have a right to a trial by jury.  If the jury system is dysfunctional the system grinds and justice is delayed.  The incumbent will discuss how she expanded free jury parking.  That’s good, but it doesn’t excuse all the problems, and to focus on that issue shows a basic misunderstanding of how to manage the jury process in a county this size.

The jury system in a county this size is going to have hiccups.  That can’t be avoided.  What can be avoided are self inflicted wounds.  Here, too, the incumbent has a history of mismanagement leading to a murder case being declared a mistrial when a jury appreciation program had a speaker that tainted a jury pool, and video of the speaker was placed online.  First, the speakers should have been cautioned regarding their presentations.  Second, when the presentation occurred someone should have caught that it was improper and not placed the video online.

Another criminal on the street because of inept handling of a basic job function by the District Clerk’s office.  Don’t taint the jury pool.  It’s a simple, basic, principle of managing juries.  Yet, not only did the failure occur, but the improper video was placed online.  Sure, it was removed at a later point, but a basic awareness of the potential issue, and guidance to speakers beforehand would have prevented the issue in the first place.

Bond and Data Transmission

The accurate recording and transmission of bond and other information is also a basic job function of the office.  (Note: This is a link to a current job opening showing the job duties, it may break after the opening closes.) Even in this simple, ministerial aspect criminals have been inappropriately set free because of problems with the office.  A simple, honest, mistake of inaccurate recording of bond let an accused murderer back on the streets.

Again, a basic job duty was not performed correctly.  While this is a one off error, it raises some troublesome concerns.  Is sex offender status being accurately and timely reported so people can know if sex offenders are living nearby? Is offender information being passed on to the appropriate databases so firearm background checks are appropriately excluding individuals who should be denied firearms? This is something we didn’t have to worry about when Chris was in office, but now can we be certain that information is being timely and accurately transmitted?  Each individual mistake is understandable, but in aggregate it raises a question on if the basic functions of the courts being carried out.  We all suffer from the dysfunction.

An Office In Regression

In 2018 when the Chronicle endorsed Chris they noted the current incumbent’s “managerial experience in the public and private sector, including service as executive director of Texas PTA and president of North Houston-Greenspoint Chamber of Commerce” and stated, “[n]o doubt that Burgess would make for an excellent district clerk.”   This assessment has not aged well.  The office is in disarray and has significantly regressed from when Chris was in office.  One of Chris’ goals for the office is, “We are going to restore order to the District Clerk office. When you walk into the office you get the best service possible regardless of race, color, or creed.”

Chris noted several changes from when he was in office:

When Chris was in office they had regular event paid for by his personal funds.

Programs like jeans on Friday were eliminated.

Parking in the parking garage was altered to have free parking for jurors at the expense of employee parking.  Employees have to park up to 10 blocks away.

Criminal courthouse access is especially problematic.

The changes have led to employee morale issues, and a new, adversarial, mentality has set into the office. The threat to “turn off” web pages in response to Commissioner’s Court criticism is just one example of the regression in the office. This is a stark departure from the kenosis style of leadership Chris exhibited when he was in office, and would doubtless exhibit if returned to office.

When in office Chris personally paid for office functions to increase office morale.  He also took deliberate steps to ensure the public was well served by the office.  Although not directly a duty of the office, Chris worked with the courts to make sure access to the buildings was efficient.  Sometimes that meant screening though different court building security and being escorted to the correct building.  The incumbent states court access isn’t her job.  Chris found a way to make it work, even though it wasn’t his job.

Chris also implemented a passport program at the county level.  This program not only helped speed up obtaining passports, but it was also at no cost to the county.  The passport fees generated paid for the program.  Again, not his job, but he saw an opportunity to serve the public, and to do so at no cost to the county.

Endorsements

Chris has many endorsements, and some are from surprising sources.  A non-exhaustive look at his endorsements shows he in endorsed by:

Mexican Association of Sheriffs Officers, Houston Police Officer’s Union, Constable Ted Heap, Constable Mark Herman, Gary Harrison, Jessy Rodriguez, Ben Mendez, Vicki Cruz (LULAC 2911), Al Martinez Jr. and Sr.

This is a diverse group of endorsements, and, importantly, contains endorsements from important individuals in persuadable democratic areas showing that Chris has appeal across party lines and in areas necessary to win.

New Conservative Foundation Calls for Broad Defense of Liberty

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This is a guest post by Luis LaRotta

Four years ago, conservatives across Texas were dealt a gut-wrenching blow as liberals gained
an unexpected advantage on the heels of Beto O’Rourke’s failed senate race. The aftermath left
an impressionable scar among conservative Texans as numerous down ballot seats were lost to
liberals in one fell swoop. Today, Americans are experiencing a similar wake-up call as liberal
politicians and their agendas expand across our country. For the GOP, a November victory
seems tantalizingly within grasp, however, dominant factions seeking to purge the party of
voters who aren’t in perfect theological or ideological alignment will continue to impede the
party’s ability to gain any substantial ground with independent voters beyond 2022.

As a former candidate for Texas House District 148, I campaigned door-to-door in the
community where my family lived in Houston. In many of these inner-city blue-collar
neighborhoods, I came face to face with the reality of how astonishingly disconnected the
Democratic Party had become and how starkly ineffective the Republican Party remained. What
I realized was that the American dream was still alive for the hardworking families I met, but for
many, the promises made by entrenched politicians to deal with surging crime, lack-luster
education and diminished economic opportunities had given them little to be optimistic about.

How could this have happened?

If you ask the Republican voters how our side has dealt with the endless barrage of cultural
warfare, few will say that we are winning. Between the mainstream media, social media, and our
educational system, conservative voices have primarily been reactionary to the headlines made
regularly by liberals that cast our views as insensitive, misogynistic, racist or worse. In many
cases our voices had been canceled with no justification, a threat that should have alerted free
speech advocates on both sides of the aisle. Yet, it’s the conservative values that have made
Texas a haven for freedom and opportunity.

In this author’s opinion, the GOP’s quest to refute every accusation that has been hurled at
conservatives, has laid a trap that we have fallen victim to repeatedly. The consequences have
been devastating and broad, as entire demographics that are not typically thought of as
Republican, yet voted for Donald Trump, have remained notably absent. Rather than finding
commonality among Republican and Independent voters, the narrative that’s been laid out
ahead of us turns these voters against one another in a regressive exercise to exclude potential
allies in the causes we care about.

In spite of these self-defeating efforts, conservatives of all types have found ways to support
one another from the vicious attacks coming from leftist cultural warriors seeking to stall our
movement.

Disenfranchised voters from all walks of life suddenly began to gravitate to conservative groups
and their organizers came to find that aside from a few differences, they were stronger together
against the left’s rhetoric. These groups, aligned by virtue of their steadfast beliefs about the

role and nature of government, led to even greater collaborative efforts that dismantled the
basis for the identity politics being touted. As an alliance forged between the Republican Liberty
Caucus of Texas, the Texas Young Republicans, and the Log Cabin Republicans of Texas, a
coalition of Freedom First Republicans formed into the strongest trifecta for liberty in the state.
The coalition was a formidable counterstrike to the radical Democratic agenda, and a beacon to
all liberty-minded Republicans and conservatives, be they in our inner cities, or in the most
remote rural areas of our state.

Although the Freedom First Republicans Coalition may be gone, the values and ideals that
brought these organizations together are now the immutable founding principles of the Texas
Conservative Liberty Forum, an organization led by Marco Roberts. He is joined by many
conservative leaders (including myself) who are intent on advancing the conservative cause for
ordered liberty through principled leadership, collaboration, and perseverance.

Some will ask if our group represents or is focused on the concerns of any particular
demographic? The answer is ‘no.’

In my view, the only affinity required is that members share the core beliefs that made the
coalition between all liberty-minded conservatives of every stripe stronger. The Texas
Conservative Liberty Forum will bring forth a new vision of the conservative movement, one that
is competitive, fearless, and effective in defeating the progressive Democratic agenda. One that
doesn’t answer to the left’s cultural wars – rather, one that reframes these constitutional issues
and posits new questions. One that brings all people together, under the common belief that
America is a place of freedom, opportunity and unity.

What happens next in Texas has implications beyond our state. Our elections reverberate
throughout the rest of the country and even the world; and as everyone watches how Texans
vote, we must demonstrate that the liberty movement has not retreated to the confines of
conservative sanctuary districts when our country needed us most.

It’s time conservatives reframe the false narratives, redirect our focus and advance united in a
common cause in support of freedom of speech, religious liberty, freedom of conscience,
freedom of self-defense, freedom of self-determination, and all our other constitutionally
guaranteed rights which are in real peril.  Families have lost businesses they spent a lifetime
building for merely exercising their First Amendment rights.  Parents are being villified for daring
to question school officials’ policies on curriculum, sexual education and gender modification
without their parental knowledge or consent. Americans of all walks of life are being silenced in
public and private institutions in the name of a liberal political ideology that claims to be for
diversity, equity, and inclusion, but instead delivers division, envy, and intolerance.

It’s time we stand our ground with those who will stand with us. As Americans flee failed,
oppressive liberal states in hopes of a brighter future, let us show them that in Texas we stand
together for the true liberty, justice, and equality under the law for all promised in our US and
Texas constitutions.

Luis H LaRotta
Texas Conservative Liberty Forum
Vice Chairman

Meeting With Kyle Scott for County Treasurer

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Kyle Scott was kind enough to agree to meet and discuss his campaign for County Treasurer.  He has a good feel for the election and what it will take to win, but the biggest take away from the meeting was his sincerity and how he wants to use the office in a non-traditional manner to help the common Joe rather than simply keep the office rigid into the traditional and statutory boundaries.  That makes him a great candidate and ensures he will be a great County Treasurer.

It’s Not Crime and Taxes

HCRP, rightly, is focusing on crime and taxes this cycle.  That’s the hot button issues that will help with the County Judge, criminal courts, and Commissioner Court races.  However, that drumbeat doesn’t have much impact on the other county wide races this cycle.  Kyle knows this, and is making talking points that push a narrative other than crime and taxes.  He states his goals are:

1. Transparency: The two biggest issues in the county are crime and infrastructure. But we can’t get those two issues right if we don’t get the money right. We’ve seen county officials disagree about how much money is being spent to address these issues, and where that money is being spent, and residents can’t get a straight answer. What compounds this confusion is that the county budget is difficult to find, certain items are inaccessible, and the budget lingo is often misleading or difficult to understand. The county treasurer should make the budget accessible and easy to follow and be proactive in engaging the community with regard to how the money is spent and where. The county treasurer should be the eyes and ears of the taxpayer.

2. Waste: County government awards contracts not on a low bid basis. Many times they award single source, no-bid contracts—at one commissioner’s court there were 66 awarded. In April there was a $125,000 no-bid contract awarded followed by a $300,000 no-bid contract awarded for personal security services—both contracts exceeded the statutory limit on no-bid contracts. If we reduce wasteful spending and reign in no-bid contracts, we can reduce overall spending and lower the tax burden on Harris County residents.

3. Corruption: The $11 million contract awarded to Elevate Strategies was subsequently recalled after accusations of impropriety that eventually led to the indictment of three county employees. The county has paid $1.4 million on this contract with more than $800,000 paid after the contract was canceled. The county treasurer should never have released these funds. Moreover, the county treasurer has the authority to retrieve all debts owed to the county. The county has not tried to retrieve these erroneously paid funds. This is taxpayer money that could be, and should be, put towards serving the community.

 

Expanding the Office

One aspect of his campaign that stands out is the idea to expand the narrow function of the office to help ordinary citizens in Harris County.  His stated goal is:

Community Service: 23% of Harris County residents are unbanked or underbanked. This means they do not utilize, or have access to, traditional banking services. Without access to a checking or savings account it is more time-consuming and expensive to handle daily transactions like paying bills. It is also more dangerous as they have to transact on a cash basis or be subjected to predatory lenders. Additionally, without access to banks, there is no opportunity for upward economic mobility as there is no chance to secure a home loan, small business loan, or student loan. If we pull the resources of our banking community, churches, and schools we can address this problem and help the unbanked and underbanked gain access to the resources they need to advance financially. 

This expanded public involvement aspect opens up another opportunity that may not otherwise be available – mediator between opposing factions on Commissioner’s Court.  After the election the Commissioner’s Court is probably going to have two Republican and two Democratic commissioners, and the County Judge race will decide control of the court.  If the county re-elects Judge Hidalgo then breaking the democrat stronghold on action will require an outside voice who has enough public support to cause the democrat majority to stop and consider the outside opinion.  A popular county wide official who is actively doing good fits that build, especially with programs like he mentioned that will serve what is otherwise a democrat constituency. This model could be expanded and bring ever increasing amounts of public good increasing the public trust in Kyle.

Endorsements

Obviously, in a county wide race the races are going to have typical partisan endorsements.  Kyle has been reaching out to try and get some less “instantly divisive” endorsements.  These include: former Harris County Treasurers Orlando Sanchez and Don Sumners; Constables Tead Heap, Mark Herman, and Phil Sandlin; HPOU PAC; Houston City Council District G Councilwoman Mary Nan Huffman; Houston Councilman at Large Mike Knox; Houston City Councilman District E and Mayor Pro Term Dave Martin, and Pasadena Mayor Jeff Wagner.

We have to focus on County Judge and the criminal benches.  Those are the most important local positions on the ballot this cycle.  To the extent that anyone wants to focus on other races, this is the one to focus on.  Kyle has the sincerity and vision to be a difference maker.  His vision to expand the office into a help the common man type of office gives him the opportunity to make significant inroads into traditional democrat voters. That’s something we need as a party to try and keep any momentum we gain as a result of the democrats policies creating this opportunity for us.

Where are the Crime Votes in Harris County?

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The New York Times did a great map looking at change in voters between the 2016 and 2020 election on a precinct level.  It showed  the results in a +/- (R/D) value and a change from 2016 map.  The map can be accessed here.

The map gives an idea where voters became relatively more Republican and Democratic.  Westpark toll way between 610 and the beltway rotating cyclonically to 290, and, surprisingly, inside 610 east of I-45 became more Republican.  The energy corridor and inside 610 west of I-45 became relatively more Democratic.

Since this is a relative measurement -2020 compared to 2016 – it is a good idea where more Democratic voters can be engaged with and possibly convinced to vote Republican in November.  However, this raised a question.  David correctly pointed out that crime is the issue this election. What happens when we look for crime specifically as an issue in the election results?

To try and answer the question I compared Trump/Biden to Huffman/Ogg since that was the district attorney race and Mary Nan specifically went door knocking and explained the district attorney’s role in crime issues.  This comparison also will account for some of the never Trumpers who otherwise vote Republican.

I’m not a map maker, so the results are in table form below.  In the table the precincts are compared as to how much difference there was between the Presidential race and the district attorney race from a Republican standpoint, and the number of votes this accounted for (total vote * percent movement).  Since the chart is broken into percentage ranges any precinct that had less than 200 total votes was omitted.

Somewhat surprisingly, crime was a negative factor that increased Democratic vote percentage in some districts.

R Movement Votes
101 -9.17317 -32.2895
507 -4.94086 -48.7663
229 -4.61022 -18.6253
647 -4.44024 -117.311
428 -4.33142 -137.566
162 -4.26938 -28.9891
607 -3.9696 -20.6419
977 -3.91304 -17.1
69 -3.53855 -21.0898
986 -3.36036 -8.53532
487 -3.33442 -72.657
773 -3.01111 -83.7691
701 -2.40624 -7.9887
835 -2.38482 -3.91111
608 -2.30263 -6.63158
780 -2.07941 -6.59172
818 -2.05629 -6.84746
81 -1.93114 -20.9142
343 -1.72524 -20.7546
859 -1.67531 -9.81729
627 -1.61896 -27.8138
301 -1.59219 -19.2336
502 -1.58475 -29.3337
429 -1.5335 -24.352
653 -1.4641 -4.8169
425 -1.42002 -5.32506
488 -1.40855 -20.1846
705 -1.34642 -7.75537
423 -1.34475 -8.82153
342 -1.27919 -7.25301
763 -1.21719 -8.04565
849 -1.2164 -17.4918
600 -1.16723 -32.3673
191 -1.13247 -7.19118
150 -1.09631 -9.15421
427 -1.0963 -7.18079
678 -1.05453 -15.5437

 

Anything less than -1% to +3% is excluded since that’s an indicator of no impact to the negative, and never Trump impact to the positive (arbitrary cutoff.)  Crime had a small impact (3-5%) in the following precincts:

184 3.004595 17.24638
379 3.032091 36.32446
417 3.03217 49.57597
88 3.038258 21.51087
358 3.046894 41.55963
347 3.04832 72.85484
960 3.062064 40.54173
656 3.085577 45.01857
406 3.086287 8.795918
283 3.093681 138.0091
1007 3.096965 39.70309
821 3.106022 17.23842
311 3.123705 51.8535
156 3.124916 61.62334
839 3.132444 20.98738
277 3.132633 30.60583
496 3.141989 44.80477
248 3.166665 27.29666
195 3.201987 35.09378
419 3.232852 56.73655
122 3.245639 32.78095
879 3.246943 63.5102
822 3.246983 26.43044
460 3.248565 84.36524
420 3.252514 120.7333
29 3.266144 39.3897
292 3.267193 26.17021
28 3.301754 81.19012
161 3.308299 19.68438
840 3.315761 39.82229
722 3.326419 86.85281
662 3.341427 104.4864
558 3.35439 98.61906
534 3.362769 90.42485
302 3.367924 63.82215
432 3.376296 27.28047
168 3.382582 7.813765
735 3.38278 18.53763
394 3.420839 14.2649
295 3.442354 14.69885
374 3.446274 12.26873
141 3.460468 14.18792
158 3.479156 53.37025
594 3.481208 56.5
115 3.503429 31.00535
136 3.508445 47.50435
121 3.510448 26.43367
466 3.518728 105.4915
584 3.529173 17.71645
1010 3.529646 26.75472
490 3.549481 51.18351
573 3.554834 29.18519
99 3.55647 36.1693
589 3.562171 91.36969
951 3.567947 7.956522
1002 3.570328 27.49153
22 3.57646 52.60972
481 3.595655 98.91646
137 3.595993 67.13719
364 3.626747 67.92897
493 3.628406 84.50558
6 3.630829 105.0762
308 3.639606 31.4098
618 3.651657 99.39809
399 3.667154 76.38683
665 3.676607 73.49538
153 3.682774 35.46512
63 3.683833 46.08475
126 3.685095 120.7606
559 3.687629 109.5226
453 3.700515 47.47761
333 3.700933 100.2583
796 3.703926 80.22703
744 3.708622 57.89159
110 3.737221 91.93564
897 3.756129 56.00388
17 3.767304 30.21378
847 3.768444 62.74459
792 3.77131 40.16446
794 3.780696 42.15476
658 3.798211 74.02714
465 3.800559 94.67192
957 3.80198 15.20792
378 3.810056 46.02548
869 3.817106 8.130435
712 3.828319 110.4087
489 3.833494 50.06543
731 3.859589 122.0402
335 3.862343 31.9802
746 3.875154 18.09697
750 3.880935 19.21063
645 3.904736 140.6877
322 3.904768 21.74956
562 3.911139 13.29787
416 3.923418 107.7371
251 3.934371 54.29432
462 3.936125 97.97015
517 3.940248 100.7521
523 3.955864 95.9297
529 3.960415 114.3372
784 3.963666 20.57143
537 3.963831 106.6271
587 3.972967 86.65042
671 3.975875 90.6102
125 3.978686 71.01954
682 3.980489 127.0572
684 3.989343 121.7946
181 3.996774 47.24187
841 3.999431 98.02605
36 4.022562 64.60235
726 4.031039 68.6889
470 4.043877 36.67797
192 4.049296 44.05634
622 4.059812 132.3093
827 4.065833 18.17427
672 4.076092 108.9539
877 4.076576 154.3799
310 4.097739 49.09091
725 4.117288 54.30702
91 4.122437 59.40431
708 4.152824 11.62791
349 4.157447 37.95749
659 4.191417 163.2138
617 4.203265 116.3464
898 4.2041 60.11863
624 4.212142 37.53019
813 4.23136 123.2172
90 4.254445 130.6115
692 4.255188 96.97573
642 4.269062 59.51073
639 4.278206 76.23762
82 4.280138 108.7583
756 4.293559 49.5906
668 4.297996 126.9628
411 4.308326 49.9335
8 4.314374 52.72165
776 4.327375 92
512 4.333469 131.9975
190 4.336535 38.98545
677 4.369985 29.84699
275 4.385975 38.64044
433 4.390805 13.17241
609 4.395682 139.0354
545 4.424537 147.868
355 4.426652 56.43981
219 4.431712 75.20615
450 4.433554 70.49351
389 4.455801 25.21983
579 4.478261 24.72
969 4.479716 18.23245
48 4.498626 24.5625
970 4.502478 17.10941
140 4.52772 106.3109
603 4.531903 173.2093
961 4.5328 61.37411
766 4.541427 10.08197
477 4.554488 146.7001
891 4.569497 45.96914
393 4.572982 39.92214
774 4.578418 16.29917
874 4.597267 112.2193
748 4.601683 44.72836
404 4.602595 72.90511
256 4.611037 92.4974
702 4.611445 12.17422
363 4.6259 161.6289
391 4.63121 68.07879
615 4.650694 78.31768
567 4.672256 70.17728
157 4.692389 58.79563
713 4.692693 64.61838
572 4.716432 106.1197
339 4.739511 53.88824
474 4.773649 106.3092
696 4.773981 60.58182
751 4.776571 236.8701
745 4.781221 86.25322
321 4.784134 59.32326
210 4.790959 97.9272
635 4.793996 113.378
243 4.8 18
621 4.83656 45.46366
480 4.84259 109.8784
452 4.873378 173.0049
630 4.899428 198.7208
518 4.918273 147.1547
421 4.918687 80.86321
599 4.928128 115.1211
246 4.933648 163.3531
588 4.947782 145.2174
720 4.957033 187.7228
704 4.957442 121.0112
365 4.960394 50.24879
46 4.961549 65.44284
98 4.999435 116.2369

 

Crime was a significant issue (5-10%) in the following precincts:

 

328 5.002142 38.91667
550 5.002487 89.94472
754 5.029371 32.84179
888 5.032918 80.47636
485 5.046259 160.1178
352 5.058819 159.5551
586 5.076227 143.2511
916 5.094915 150.3
117 5.103071 52.20442
500 5.111836 141.1378
464 5.115849 89.98778
476 5.12265 81.55258
552 5.126637 163.7448
114 5.1455 206.952
679 5.158755 137.6356
296 5.191204 56.32456
345 5.200711 58.45599
640 5.209041 139.3939
728 5.23217 30.97445
958 5.233058 38.04433
522 5.236573 113.9478
367 5.251223 46.31579
282 5.255029 86.55033
541 5.267525 177.2522
789 5.273735 109.7992
596 5.288783 117.6225
83 5.293381 146.9972
264 5.301093 103.0533
641 5.345561 144.0629
785 5.365596 195.4687
805 5.397578 118.5848
519 5.42626 110.3701
482 5.434129 183.0214
762 5.451534 130.8368
637 5.459862 92.70845
49 5.513122 200.1815
995 5.525499 73.93118
76 5.525522 83.32487
24 5.547786 32.45455
193 5.54829 34.51037
415 5.57013 97.86719
510 5.571211 149.4199
926 5.577362 52.37143
598 5.612287 223.369
434 5.624659 70.36448
752 5.631158 55.69216
747 5.637682 185.1979
225 5.643465 132.3392
655 5.647779 178.3004
290 5.663063 70.05209
851 5.686857 170.5488
341 5.737673 40.45059
299 5.741349 50.46645
804 5.75644 262.321
340 5.781755 168.9429
880 5.791808 130.0261
50 5.824699 179.692
542 5.845974 94.99708
390 5.856962 61.61525
357 5.86016 157.1695
657 5.864525 65.85862
674 5.885592 202.9941
351 5.887247 224.9517
113 5.892159 113.5419
709 5.907435 198.1944
138 5.909592 48.63594
34 5.929938 137.8118
623 5.940325 175.002
486 5.96203 204.7361
738 5.979035 44.54381
498 5.996729 98.04651
397 6.012656 23.9905
644 6.014372 199.3764
369 6.01686 18.11075
601 6.017075 190.5608
759 6.019569 123.5817
790 6.043824 110.4207
963 6.0454 32.64516
982 6.121776 295.3145
771 6.123679 54.74569
688 6.134512 211.8247
469 6.149881 152.3325
329 6.163251 59.10558
648 6.182628 165.509
478 6.194704 196.7438
903 6.201023 126.2528
111 6.212593 289.1341
742 6.240644 168.8718
539 6.244946 76.62549
484 6.24922 182.4772
606 6.251836 28.38333
650 6.260204 195.3184
10 6.263052 61.19002
913 6.271306 11.35106
312 6.272327 156.5573
575 6.302281 191.5894
224 6.320144 128.8045
911 6.325695 21.57062
509 6.335538 235.3019
505 6.341249 176.0965
548 6.389927 97.70199
862 6.424402 189.7126
661 6.456783 206.7462
315 6.458664 80.08743
244 6.46882 142.2493
521 6.513446 136.5218
786 6.528037 40.66967
669 6.536316 176.6766
412 6.545209 14.92308
933 6.545496 35.41113
388 6.550825 298.7176
314 6.559104 296.2091
119 6.580102 286.4977
307 6.586636 153.5345
483 6.593751 223.2644
491 6.594372 118.4349
730 6.595103 120.6904
885 6.622224 158.9996
361 6.643824 72.21837
267 6.649194 51.66423
806 6.660048 146.521
479 6.661619 188.9235
610 6.682525 88.27616
245 6.702041 226.73
442 6.730911 232.6203
323 6.749386 80.2502
631 6.842094 153.605
287 6.85779 94.84324
980 6.862564 72.88043
492 6.863824 115.5182
602 6.881303 81.88751
570 6.885616 76.15492
514 6.905699 215.0435
451 6.913358 149.3285
711 6.91823 231.7607
876 6.95986 275.1233
764 6.963081 257.634
43 6.969367 86.83831
734 6.99255 253.2702
260 7.044687 76.5053
172 7.07831 27.67619
787 7.151565 19.80984
41 7.160133 79.76388
651 7.177435 191.9964
515 7.178798 177.8906
817 7.208825 298.6616
370 7.212927 272.6486
331 7.262834 308.8883
123 7.276747 83.31876
262 7.301104 210.7829
633 7.313283 232.8549
968 7.32432 130.1532
729 7.326173 24.76246
707 7.345473 43.92593
853 7.360552 170.4704
198 7.389558 24.38554
11 7.415218 73.70727
803 7.424007 264.8886
143 7.46178 315.1856
436 7.488492 230.9451
996 7.501394 39.8324
875 7.515526 240.6471
27 7.541926 158.7575
146 7.554368 121.3232
690 7.567523 235.4256
691 7.583155 256.9931
362 7.617882 290.546
298 7.619166 118.6304
112 7.63539 175.9194
444 7.638117 201.5699
407 7.64989 223.0708
495 7.662597 157.3898
270 7.670955 204.9679
306 7.695007 114.7326
84 7.713261 70.19068
912 7.726572 82.13346
703 7.769086 118.4786
223 7.772748 198.7492
30 7.793688 187.3603
263 7.805017 250.3069
964 7.81268 329.3045
44 7.820123 89.85321
800 7.824439 217.9889
293 7.829502 105.6983
569 7.841906 261.1355
16 7.843705 135.147
834 7.86703 18.17284
95 7.915493 214.1141
291 7.919192 65.33333
568 7.945173 216.9032
405 7.979572 250.0798
625 8.004422 117.0247
200 8.088295 262.9505
620 8.11685 208.8466
21 8.133298 73.11835
687 8.141412 180.088
612 8.203336 207.5444
543 8.219804 74.88241
564 8.252713 209.0412
233 8.287789 363.5853
616 8.292675 229.3754
779 8.405165 32.44394
619 8.405779 319.0834
179 8.409405 116.0498
380 8.412318 357.6076
159 8.417299 63.21392
511 8.4873 596.9967
994 8.496338 17.92727
9 8.510046 125.0126
718 8.536066 335.8942
155 8.558656 279.6113
20 8.565019 140.3807
39 8.569055 224.4235
213 8.572103 249.4482
513 8.575985 201.6214
74 8.613933 244.3773
60 8.650709 194.0354
194 8.677462 162.9627
563 8.689322 215.0607
878 8.694337 106.3317
473 8.695817 118.3501
165 8.709889 152.8586
896 8.743591 119.5249
461 8.82024 293.6258
626 8.830764 297.8617
255 8.888243 172.9652
985 8.901807 21.00826
269 8.925034 167.9691
667 8.950379 145.8912
173 8.966092 348.1533
32 8.994655 212.1839
149 9.028652 667.9397
129 9.085752 368.6998
274 9.086698 165.5596
699 9.090177 161.1688
206 9.128185 206.0231
758 9.172445 319.3845
828 9.247339 145.2757
178 9.252377 152.3866
38 9.276716 231.6396
124 9.277694 438.6494
1004 9.340979 52.96335
3 9.375682 147.8545
899 9.446988 99.19337
504 9.457376 174.1103
395 9.467338 133.8682
118 9.546351 290.4
120 9.569134 323.6281
40 9.703326 41.91837
670 9.789062 251.9704
92 9.831021 176.8601
303 9.881377 285.9671
300 9.886823 463.1977
590 9.897884 165.5916
499 9.947509 197.9554

 

Some precincts had over 10% change, which likely means something other than crime was driving the results.  However, for completeness those precincts are:

577 10.08908 155.3719
435 10.09047 271.5345
447 10.09337 471.2594
503 10.1231 209.0421
768 10.23599 211.0661
923 10.285 342.9018
217 10.33871 238.1005
139 10.37278 320.9339
350 10.38266 242.8505
772 10.38331 370.7881
273 10.39005 213.2038
892 10.43058 100.8637
721 10.45769 227.873
18 10.46159 118.8437
33 10.46683 340.1721
204 10.49655 310.2781
37 10.5043 222.5862
135 10.56227 288.35
761 10.58251 151.224
234 10.59915 375.3159
459 10.63479 319.5755
886 10.67067 72.98738
207 10.69985 90.52074
56 10.70043 124.66
441 10.71432 136.9291
174 10.72181 294.0993
760 10.75489 174.8746
176 10.81298 115.807
316 10.89128 129.6062
472 10.93532 95.46535
540 11.02042 214.788
19 11.03743 136.9745
546 11.06944 219.1749
70 11.07698 387.5836
445 11.09937 171.7072
1 11.1237 286.6578
973 11.15604 95.71886
385 11.17367 196.2096
808 11.35524 53.2561
947 11.37641 74.17417
360 11.37885 321.5663
356 11.51014 281.7681
222 11.55218 269.8589
52 11.59198 259.3126
86 11.59499 402.1143
130 11.61262 209.7239
551 11.80599 495.6153
890 11.81544 154.546
902 11.84524 297.3154
304 11.89953 211.6926
895 11.90706 83.23034
400 11.96217 269.3882
439 11.99305 372.3842
663 12.15611 238.9891
743 12.1908 12.55652
148 12.19105 249.9165
324 12.21731 263.1609
578 12.2551 186.8903
177 12.41485 187.0917
14 12.49366 186.2805
71 12.64585 651.0084
437 12.66799 226.7569
73 12.70391 187.7638
215 12.77931 248.6854
955 12.78171 803.5859
5 12.79178 155.0363
227 12.82014 180.6357
53 12.83162 341.1927
403 12.96419 184.2212
214 13.01151 206.4926
59 13.02956 311.7974
710 13.03821 248.6386
265 13.05601 375.2297
424 13.09708 122.9816
116 13.43036 355.7702
281 13.43349 243.6835
2 13.55153 203.0019
438 13.77728 405.6031
258 13.98466 382.4803
887 14.02439 50.4878
54 14.15583 211.0635
232 14.22188 219.728
166 14.3576 148.6011
268 14.40349 287.7817
58 14.44104 430.0542
57 14.76461 405.2885
55 14.79313 373.0828
133 14.84946 342.1315
440 14.88859 363.5793
128 14.95767 294.666
448 15.1549 373.7199
443 15.27387 83.39535
4 15.29986 246.9397
724 15.32035 147.0754
183 15.74388 335.1871
175 15.86907 337.2177
75 15.98327 268.6787
182 16.1578 525.6133
501 16.28267 296.6702
309 16.64535 523.8292
189 17.02634 217.0859
826 17.27053 50.94805
927 17.66196 269.345
87 17.77263 417.1236
89 18.02543 193.4128
15 19.32438 485.815

 

From a total votes standpoint, the precincts where crime was a negative factor cost 942 votes, and where it was a positive factor gained 81,168 votes.  Hopefully this helps to focus on where available votes can be found and we’re able to flip seats in a few months.

If anyone wants a copy of the underlying data I’m glad to send it.

The Southwest Management District Liberty Fest was a Missed Opportunity

by

Harris County is a light blue county. In order to win countywide races HCRP and/or candidates needs to make a sustained effort to engage persuadable voters. One easy way to interact with voters is to go to events. The Southwest Management District and Sharpstown Civic Association put on a “Liberty Fest” every year. This was a great way to engage with voters who are persuadable, and just as important it serves as an opportunity to not let the Democrats set the narrative for the election. As far as I can tell, only Commissioner Cagle, Kyle Scott, and John Branch were present at the event. This is opposed to about a dozen democrat candidates and the Southwest Democrats, who show and have a booth every year.

Controlling the Narrative

Sharpstown is an area where crime is an issue, and that’s one narrative that Republicans can use to persuade voters to vote red, at least on local races. The main message that played as a time filler while I was at the event was crime is on the way down. This message was paired with statistics to give a veneer of truth to the message. Although Republican literature talks about crime, we need to actively engage with voters t show how crime is still a significant problem even if the overall rate is coming down.

Use pictures like the above to show how crime is still an everyday issue, and engage the voters so they don’t fall for the counter narrative the democrats are pushing – crime is decreasing. That’s probably the best line they can push on crime, and for people who are already predisposed to vote for them it is a message that will take root. Our candidates need to be out in the streets at events engaging with the voters to push our message and counter the lines the democrats are pushing.

Time is Short, and Crime isn’t Enough

We only have 120ish days until Election Day.  The clock is ticking, and we need to go out and make the personal connections now.  Yes, the weather is miserably hot.  It’s hard to find block walkers, and people are reluctant to answer doors even if you can get block walkers out.  We still have to try. Outside of the criminal court races it’s difficult to see how crime picks up enough split ticket voters to make a difference.

We need to learn the lessons from last cycle.  Mary Nan Huffman and Joe Danna were both kind enough to let me interview them on their races last cycle.  The biggest difference between the two was Many Nan was engaged in more one on one voter interaction while Joe was more focused on mass messaging activities.  The results showed a difference.  While both were unsuccessful, Many Nan lost by 7.5% while Joe lost by 15%.  With a one on one interaction model and targeting areas where voters are persuadable might be enough to obtain enough split ticket ballots on criminal courts.  It’s more up in the air will the prevailing sentiment on crime be enough to switch enough voters on a mass messaging model.

But what about races other than the criminal courts?  What is the message we have that will persuade voters who don’t see how crime is involved with those offices?  We have a significant opportunity in the wake of Dobbs to show we are fundamentally different from the democrats.  While the democrats are doubling down on abortion and promoting more of the same/trying to circumvent the law, Republicans have an opportunity to show we are problem solvers.  Commissioners Cagle and Ramsey have the largest bully pulpit from which to promote solutions.  The candidates need to either coordinate with the Commissioners and get a unified message, or start crafting their own solutions and get out and spread the word.  Time is short, and crime is not enough.

We Still Have an Opportunity

Although time is short, we still have an opportunity to make course corrections. Labor Day will have many similar events to the one that just occurred in Sharpstown. Hopefully the candidates are going to cooperate and have some meet and greets in neighborhoods where persuadable voters are located. It’s going to take following the lead of Kyle though. He is out everywhere, and doesn’t abandon any part of the county. We will not have a cycle this favorable again in the foreseeable future. Next cycle will be dominated by the Presidential election. The next midterms will find Harris County run better – the next Houston mayor will see to it that they make some significant visible change. If we lose this opportunity we lose the best chance we have to make meaningful change for at least three cycles.