After four days of early voting, one thing is clear in Harris County: Harris County Democrats aren’t enthused about their candidates. Republicans have only one county wide race to vote on but are neck and neck with the Democrats in total turnout, who have four county wide races, including for Governor and a nasty fight for CD7.
Let’s take a look at Republican early voting by voting location:
Clearly the runoff in CD2 is dominating Republican turnout. I thought I’d have a bit of fun and guess the outcome of that race:
A second scenario:
I’m sure you know what WAG stands for. Before I plugged numbers in above, I was pretty certain that Kevin Roberts would be the favorite. But I just don’t see enough of the geriatric vote by mail to overcome Dan Crenshaw’s momentum at the polls. Obviously, as noted, this is a WAG but it was a fun exercise.
Speaking of CD2, a reader sent in Kevin Roberts’ lastest campaign email, sent yesterday at 4:01 pm. Check it out:
You may have recently seen an attack video by Dan Crenshaw or a TV ad by his liberal Washington DC Super PAC claiming that I don’t believe Veterans have “real world experience”.
In this HIGHLY edited video, that is 100% false, Dan Crenshaw cut and pasted several statements I made in a forum when I was comparing my business record to Dan’s Harvard education.
Throughout the forum a few weeks ago, Dan kept attacking my business experience with the response that he was the only candidate capable of serving because his public policy education at Harvard. When we reached the closing statement portion of the event, I wanted to a make a clear distinction.
There is a difference between balancing a budget as a businessowner for 30 years and balancing a budget as a State Legislator from just reading case studies in classes at Harvard.
At no point in this forum did I mention veterans. For Dan Crenshaw and his liberal friends to claim otherwise is misleading and dishonest. For them to claim I don’t support veterans is an outright lie.
Well, I took Kevin Roberts’ advice and watched the full, unedited video. It is true that he did not specifically say “veterans”. It is also true that in context, he was clearly demeaning Dan Crenshaw’s military service. Watch it yourself. Thanks for that Kevin Roberts!
As the reader who forwarded the email said,
He’s a “business owner”? He actually owns that law firm?
Huh. I thought he was the office manager for The Lanier Law Firm. But maybe his brother-in-law, whose name is on the firm’s marque, gave Kevin Roberts a piece of the action. That would help explain why The Lanier Law Firm is funding the negative attacks on Dan Crenshaw to the tune of $450,000 thus far. And probably more to come.
It is pretty clear that Kevin Roberts is on the defensive in this race. Take a look at Dan Crenshaw’s latest campaign email, sent this morning at 9:03 am:
He knows that he needs to get people to the polls and doesn’t waste time talking about his opponent. He also included this video:
Maybe my WAG will come true!
Go VOTE! And while you are there, vote for Richard Risinger for Judge! And if Jeff Williams is on your ballot, vote for him too!
Here is another scenario, sent in by a guy that is way, way better at predicting elections than I am.
UPDATE End of Early Voting:
We now know the number of early voters: 17,931. I reduced the number of mail ballots because the number returned thus far is only 15,837. I also adjusted the election day numbers downward.