Uh, oh, there I go being all liberal again. That’s what you’re thinking, isn’t it? It’s okay, I’m used to it and I promise it doesn’t bother me a bit. Because if you think that, chances are you do not understand the Texas budget and/or the Economic Stabilization Fund. So before you start jabbering, hear me out, and then jabber away.
First off, using the ESF is not unheard of. In fact, that has been the operating norm of the fund since its inception in 1990. You don’t believe me, do you? Sigh. Well, how about we just look at the ins and outs of the fund and then maybe you will, okay?
That chart comes from the latest Fiscal Note published by Texas Comptroller Susan Combs (* the 2011 number is for four months, Sep-Dec 2010). Surprise you? I have to admit that it surprised me. Wanna know the biggest spender of ESF funds? That’d be the dean of the House, former Speaker Tom Craddick, who “raided” the fund for a total of $2.834 BILLION in his three budgets. Surprised again, aren’t you? C’mon, you know you are, just admit it. And who was the Governor at the time? Yup, the same Gov. Perry that we have today. They did it then, we can do it now.
Now that we’ve established that the fund has been used, and used heavily in the past, let’s talk about the current problem. That same Comptroller, Susan Combs, says that we are going to be $4.3 BILLION short of meeting our commitments from the 2010/2011 budget that passed a divided House, sailed through the Republican dominated Senate, and was signed by Republican Gov. Rick Perry. They passed the budget in good faith that Comptroller Comb’s revenue estimate was correct.
Turns out that it wasn’t correct and missed the mark. So the question is, do we use money that is already in the bank to cover that shortfall or do we cut enough in the remaining five months of the two year budget to cover that shortfall? Here’s where it gets tricky. Gov. Perry had his staff look into it and they can’t seem to find much in the way of cuts for the next five months. Peggy Fikac of the Houston Chronicle blogged last week that the governor’s staff had found an additional $200 million in cuts, and then wrote in her long-form article that they had only found $50 million. Most likely, the smaller number is more accurate.
If Gov. Perry, the most fiscally conservative politician in the state, can’t find $4.3 BILLION to cut, we might as well face up to the fact that there isn’t $4.3 BILLION to cut in the next five months.
Grown-ups face facts and deal with them. Republicans need to act like grown-ups and deal with it. The House needs to pass HB 275 and be done with it. The Senate needs to do the same and the governor should sign it post-haste.
Why? Because there are much bigger fish to fry and we need the current legislature to focus on that.
Comptroller Combs revised her revenue forecast upwards by $300 million today, giving lawmakers $72.5 BILLION to spend for the 2012/2013 budget. Estimates predict that number to be between $15 and $27 BILLION short of what is “necessary” to maintain current levels of government services. Regardless of which number you choose, low or high, if we can help our legislators keep to Comptroller Combs’ revenue figure it will be a HUGE achievement for our state. We must reduce government if we are going to remain competitive in the future and the only way to do it is to support Republican legislators in their efforts. And the good news is that we would still have, with added funds from high oil and gas prices, approximately $5 BILLION in the ESF. In case a Rainy Day comes.
So please, Tea Party people, please help Republican legislators weather this storm because they cannot do it if you keep attacking them. They have enough to deal with from the left and the left controlled media. Yes, I mocked them for exaggerating their numbers at their big rally this past Saturday but whether or not my number of 2,000 is right or one of the other estimates is correct, they are a force that must be reckoned with. No politician likes to be told that he or she is “hurting the children”.
If you don’t help them weather the storm, I’m afraid we might be back to politics as usual because they would think they have nothing to lose. So think before you attack someone for daring to pull from the ESF and keep the larger goal in mind.
That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.
Dan Patrick was on KSEV this morning explaining that the Senate might use a portion of the fund to balance this year’s shortfall after the nominal reductions in bureaucratic squandering. Over half the budget goes to the “children” or rather the educrats. The big problem is the forcast shortfall for the next budget is even worse. Who knows just how bad the economic situation will be in two years. I say cut, cut, cut…and drill here, drill now!
I can actually live with that, if that’s all they touch, and only for the current biennium. It’s a liveable, workable compromise for me, especially since it means solid cuts will be made.
As to education, Bruce Campbell put together an interesting analysis of spending on education; as soon as it’s posted I’ll link it. He has spent some serious time at the Comptroller’s FAST website working up comparisons.
David,
I am not a Republican, but rather an Independent voter and I have had my share of arguments with Kent Vining (Sarge), but it is really tough for me to poke any holes in his logic concerning the Rainy Day Fund and keeping it intact for a sudden and unexpected natural diaster.
The current fiscal mess did not develop in a couple of weeks like a hurricane. It has taken years to develop and some of the very “grasshoppers” that ignored the problem are in Austin right now. It is a lot easier to make cuts in a time of plenty. We could have been in front of this problem, but crass politics got in the way and I am not talking about the Democrats.
Spending cuts do tend to anger the peasents (voters) and the peasents tend to punish the principled politicians that make the courageous choices. Well so be it! Who said that being in the legislature or state senate was a life time career? We need a lot more one-term wonders with the cojones big enough to do the right thing for once.
Simple
Simple,
Yeah, I know what Mr. Vining’s “argument” is, he tried to post it here and on my Chron site 3 times today. I have no interest in his opinion – I’m a patient guy and all but when a guy repeatedly spreads lies about me and shows no remorse when shown he is factually wrong, I move on.
I’m surprised you bought his very uninformed opinion though. I’m sure that you’ve seen by now the reports that Gov. Perry agreed with me and did just what I suggested. It was the smart thing to do and I’m quite certain that you will agree with it after you’ve reviewed it.
Sometimes, knowing what you are talking about is okay – knowledge isn’t always bad, even if it gets one labeled “establishment”.
Dave
Dave,
I have agreed with you at the times when I thought you were right on an issue and disagreed when I did not believe you were right.
I suspect you can say the same about me.
The same is quite true about Kent Vining (aka Sarge). Kent is like a very ill tempered bull dog when defending his beliefs and there have been times when I just back off because I know there is no possibility that I will change his mind on an issue. I sleep a lot better that way.
Kent has had a epiphany of late and I have seen him take some positions that would have make him quite unpopular with the old LST crowd. He made a very reasoned defense of American Moslems and Moslems in general. Basically, he said that not all Moslems were EVIL. I am sure that you read some of the same posts.
I am not sure what all of Kent’s points are on not spending the Rainy Day Fund. I am re-reading yours, but I am pretty sure that I will still agree with Kent after several careful re-reads. There are several things that could be done before dipping into that fund and the assumption that the current recession is at an end is not a good one.
Govenor Good Hair boasted during his campaign how good things were in Texas and that we were open for business. Ok…most politicians have an aversion to speaking the truth during campaigns. Well how about showing some leadership now? If we cannot obtain enough room by cutting spending, then enact a temporary tax. I realize creating any new tax would be a typical Democrat solution, but we all got here because we could not exercise fiscal restraint when the good times were rolling. It is now time to pay the piper.
Simple
p.s. I am very glad to know that you have the ear of Governor Perry. How did you manage to push Dan out of the way?
Simple,
LOL, I’m glad to hear that you don’t agree with me 100{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the time. Anyone that does that is nuts. And unfortunately, I don’t have his ear or he’d change half the stuff he does – and never be elected.
I think you and I agree more than you know. Rather than a temporary tax, which is rarely temporary, we are using the money we have in the bank. Turns out they are going to use less than I said and defer some of problem into the next budget after all – about $850 million. That gives us a net amount available to spend, without new taxes or further use of the ESF, of $75.65 billion – that is going to require some major cuts and stiff backbone but it can, and I predict will, be done.
David,
We do agree more often than not, however my personal principal is to not touch my “blood-money” savings, but rather work some overtime or cut expenses to make up a personal shortfall.
I agree with Kent on the general principal that we should not touch the rainy day fund. Hit the savings once and it will only get that much easier in the future we our politicians fail to exercise good fiscal planning.
Hitting the fund allows Governor Goodhair and his cronies to say, “See, we did not have to raise taxes.”
It is pointless now to argue about it, since it is a virtual fait de accompli.
Simple
Simple @ 3:32 pm
” Hit the savings once and it will only get that much easier in the future we our politicians fail to exercise good fiscal planning. ”
Did you even bother to read the post David wrote ?
Hit the savings once ?! Oh, please.
The Lege has been banging the Economic Stabilization Fund like a drum for years since its inception.
Good grief.
Simple,
Arguing is the life-blood of blogs. That and clicking on Google ads. 😉
This isn’t a matter of Gov. Perry saying that they didn’t have to raise taxes. If he or Straus or anyone else were to use these funds for the 2012/13 budget, I’d agree with you. But that isn’t what they are doing – they are using the fund for one of the purposes that it was intended for.
I’m uncomfortable with the idea of gov’t having surplus funds in the first place but I’ve seen the benefit of it so I’m no longer so ideological about it. A few years ago I, along with Sen. Patrick, would have argued that the fund should be depleted and the monies returned to the taxpayer.
It is laughable that someone would call me “establishment” when I’ve been a part of the tea party movement since day one. I brought attention to it when few did. In fact, some of the people saying that about me today are the very same ones who laughed at me for bringing the movement to a broader audience. You know who I’m talking about. 😉
Careful, Texpat, or you too will be labeled as an ‘establishment’ guy.
Oh wait. He’s already done that to you too! Nevermind.
Uh, Dave, if I gave a damn what any of these fools called me I would never have ventured into the dogfight in the first place.
When I get through with my meeting at the ultra-swanky, high security private club in Manhattan tomorrow with all the swell guys from the Council on Foreign Relations, Heritage Foundation and the RNC, I’ll call to fill you in on what everybody said.
Don’t tell anybody – it’s a big, huge secret.
As promised, Brice Campbell’s piece at Cane Island Connection:
http://caneisland.conservativesinaction3.net/education/49-education-budget-cuts.html
LOL @ DJ being Establishment.