This past year saw much fanfare surrounding the formation of “Battleground Texas” as a coordinated effort to “turn Texas blue.” As we approach the 2014 elections, however, the reality of the situation shows how difficult a task this would be. From the candidate filings posted by the Secretary of State’s elections division, it appears that the Texas Democratic Party already has, once again, conceded much of the state to the Republicans without a fight.
A considerable amount of media attention has been directed towards the candidacies of state senators Wendy Davis and Letitia Van de Putte for governor and lieutenant governor on the Democratic ticket. Less mention is made, however, of the little-known candidates for U.S. Senator, attorney-general, and the other statewide offices where the party is fielding someone. In fact, the Democrats are contesting only 12 of the 15 statewide offices on this year’s ballot, roughly the same percentage as they have run each time over the past eight election cycles. Democrats have ceded the same percentage of congressional districts to the Republicans in the upcoming election. Although admittedly no Democratic candidate has won statewide since 1996, the lack of success is even more guaranteed when the party fails to file a candidate for office.
The situation is even more depressing for a viable Texas Democratic Party as one goes down the ballot. For the Texas House of Representatives, voters in forty percent of the state’s districts will have no opportunity to support a Democratic candidate for state representative, almost guaranteeing a continued Republican majority before a single vote is cast. The same statistics hold true for the fifteen state senate districts up for election this year, where forty percent have no Democratic candidates.
Perhaps the most striking failure of the Democratic effort so far can be seen in a survey of the state’s 254 county courthouses. These courthouses have been historically the focus of Texas Democratic politics, with county officeholders backed by the votes of “yellow dog Democrats.” For many years the Republican Party did not even hold primary elections let alone run local candidates in many counties. The last two decades, however, have seen a sea-change in the state’s politics at the county level.
The number of elected county offices on the ballot in any one election can vary tremendously from as many as fifty to as few as five. Despite this variance, the Texas Democratic Party failed to file a single county office candidate in 86 counties – over one-third of the state’s total. When plotted on a map, these counties represent most of the Panhandle and Hill Country, areas where the GOP has historically obtained support. Also included is a wide swath of west central counties and even a pocket in East Texas, traditionally a Democratic stronghold. Included among those without a single Democratic county candidate are not merely small-town counties but also the more heavily-populated suburbs such as Denton, Montgomery, and Parker along with the urban areas of Randall, Bell, and Grayson counties. Not included here are an additional 33 counties where one lone Democratic candidate filed for one of the many county elected positions on the 2014 ballot. Together, this accounts for almost half of all Texas counties.
When one looks at specific offices, the situation is even more dramatic. Before a single vote is cast the Republican Party knows that it will control the office of county judge in 168 counties, almost two-thirds of the state’s total, since no Democratic candidate has filed for this office. This includes most of the twenty-nine suburban counties around the state’s four major metropolitan areas as well as two-thirds of the twenty-one smaller urban counties in the state. In fact, less than twenty percent of the state’s counties will see a November contest between a Democratic and a Republican candidate for county judge. The same result can be shown for the precinct two and precinct four county commission seats up in 2014, where statewide some 62.4{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} have no Democratic candidate, thus guaranteeing a Republican victory.
With 168 counties having no Democratic candidate for any county office on the ballot, it would not be surprising if several do not even hold a Democratic primary this March. That was the case in the presidential election year of 2012 when 13 counties provided no opportunity for voters to participate in the Democratic primary process. Until the beginning of this century, this was often the situation for the Republican Party but seldom, if ever, was there a county not holding a Democratic primary.
Former Democratic Speaker of the House Tip O’Neill is credited with the saying, “all politics is local.” Unless and until the Texas Democratic Party is able to rebuild a foundation of support throughout the state with viable party organizations recruiting candidates for county and district offices, its effort to promote a few top-level candidates will take a very long time to succeed. Just ask the Republicans who elected John Tower in 1961 and waited nearly twenty years before electing any other statewide official.
Wayne Thorburn ([email protected]) is author of the forthcoming Red State: An Insider’s Story of How the GOP Came to Dominate Texas Politics to be published by University of Texas Press this Spring.