It’s interesting how a little bit of research can change your mind about a race. I came into this primary season expecting to vote for current Harris County Republican Party Chair Paul Simpson. That might come as a surprise to you and to Paul but it is true. The overwhelming amount of emails we get promoting the changes in the HCRP had me convinced that he would be the best choice among the three people running. After all, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it, right?

Well, here’s the problem. It’s kinda, sorta broke. And while Simpson certainly has increased fundraising as promised, he’s spending more than he’s bringing in. That’s a fact, at least if HCRP Treasurer Cindy Siegel’s campaign finance reports are correct.

We’ll get back to the finances in a bit but there are a lot of other things that point to things not being quite as rosy as Chairman Simpson says they are. Now, I know, the Simpson folks are already going nuts that I would even bring this up but I’m not the only one. Whether or not you like former HCRP Chair Gary Polland, you can’t argue with the facts that he lays out.

As we move into primary season, it is important to look at what progress the current leadership of the Harris County Republican party has made. If you are following the campaign for Chairman, you have read a lot of bragging by the current chair Paul Simpson. But what matters are the facts.

We should judge a political party on results and turnout, so let’s first review election results by comparable election years 2014 (Simpson) to 2010 (previous Chairman):

• Straight party Republican vote (number of votes) – 290,355 in 2010 down to 254,006 in 2014;
• Straight party Republican votes (percentage) – 54.33{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} in 2010 down to 54.26{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} in 2014;
• Votes for Republican candidate for Governor – 379,516 in 2010 down to 349,639 in 2014;
• Turnout – 41.67{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} in 2010 down to 33.65{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} in 2014; and
• Down ballot races – Republicans won every countywide race in 2010 with the sole exception of Governor where we had a popular “conservative” Democrat to run against, unlike in 2014 when a liberal woman was running.

Next, let’s look at the party organization and see how it’s doing:

• Number of Precinct Chairs – 540 in 2012 down to 452 in 2016;
• Percentage of precincts with Republican Precinct Chairs – 51{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} in 2012 down to 45{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} in 2016;
• Turnover – 50{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of Senate District Chairs have resigned or chosen not to re-run since Simpson took office;
• A significant number of Precinct Chairs have resigned or elected not to re-file since Simpson took office;
• Republican Election Judges for Primary Election – Concern was voiced at the last HCRP Executive Committee Meeting about lack of vetting of Election Judges by Simpson leading to Democrats running Republican primaries in precincts;
• Election Judges for General Election – Chairman Woodfill went to court to support Republican Election Judges (and alternates). Simpson has discouraged Precinct Chairs from even serving as Election Judges; and
• In 2010, every polling location had a Republican Election Judge or Alternate Judge position filled by a Republican. In 2014 under Simpson, more than 50 polling locations had no Republican Judge or Alternate Judge!

Next, party finances:

• Income – Contributions have increased substantially, but unfortunately the expenses are through the roof;
• Expenses – Expansion of staff overhead and move to Wynnwood increased operation expenses, including a significant increase in monthly rent from the former headquarters, as well as having to pay for both headquarters at the same time for several months;
• At the 2015 Executive Committee, current HCRP treasurer Cindy Siegel reported that the party was short of having the money to pay monthly expenses;
• Campaign database – Software (Precinct Manager Program) developed “on his (Simpson) own time and on his own dime” was discarded soon after his election in favor of an expensive alternative controlled by outsiders;
• Overall assessment – Huge increase in fundraising expenses with little positive net to negative results.

The increase in donations is being squandered on unnecessary overhead.

Stunning. At least it is for me after believing most of the emails that Simpson sent out. Sure, I knew he wasn’t telling the truth about Campaign for Houston but I let it slide because I believed the rest of it. Precinct chair recruitment up! Fundraising up! Wow.

But I’m not taking Polland’s word for it anymore than I should have taken Simpson’s word. Before I even read Polland’s piece today I had found the problems with the fundraising by reviewing not only the HCRP’s campaign finance reports but also by reviewing the campaign finance reports for Simpson and for the PAC he is closely aligned with, the Houston Realty Business Coalition.

Simpson took office in June of 2014. The following spreadsheets contain all contributions and expenditures between 7/1/2014 and 2/15/2016 for the HCRP, the HRBC, and the Paul Simpson campaign. I would urge you to review the sheets to see not only the raw numbers, but the links between the three and the change from the HCRP being a grassroots organization to something very much different.

Harris County Republican Party

Houston Realty Business Coalition

Paul Simpson campaign

Stunning. Or did I already say that?

During the 19 months that Simpson has been Chair, the HCRP has raised $1,734,754.28 at the state and local level. That is indeed impressive. Here is the problem. During those same 19 months, the HCRP has spent $2,055,031.29 at the state and local level. Ooopsie.

To see how far the party has transformed from a grassroots organization to…something not grassroots, take a look at the average and median contributions for the HCRP under Simpson. The average contribution at the state and local level during those 19 months was $8,673.77. The median contribution was $2,500. Compare that to the previous 19 months under former chair Jared Woodfill.

	11/01/2012 – 05/31/2014	07/01/2014 – 02/15/2016
Number of unique contributors	439	147
Total funds raised	$673,782	$1,734,754
Average contribution	$659	$8,674
Median contribution	$125	$2,500

Still think the HCRP is a grassroots organization? Three times the number of contributors. The difference in average and median contributions is astonishing.

I always focus on the state campaign finance reports but to be fair there is a portion of the HCRP activities that are considered Federal. For those same 19 months, the HCRP reported $1,256,899 in contributions and  $1,285,195 in expenditures, a net loss of  $(28,296). If you want to view the reports, here is the information you need:

State – Texas Ethics Commission, Filer ID 00025207 (main) and Filer ID 00023764.

Federal – FEC Campaign Finance, Committee ID C00326835

Browse around those spreadsheets and you’ll find a lot of interesting similarities. What is really fascinating to me is how much the three groups intersect in donors and expenditures. One vendor, Mammoth Marketing Group, stands out. This group is an establishment, Austin political insider consulting firm. Between the three groups, Mammoth has received $550,011.93 in the 19 months Simpson has been in charge. And if you look at Simpson’s overall campaign finance reports, his campaign has paid Mammoth a mind boggling $287,759.25 for consulting and strategy since he began his campaign in 2013. For an elected position that pays nothing, nada, zip, zilch.

Amazing. Do you now have any doubt whatsoever as to why the HCRP is now silent on illegal immigration, abortion, and gay marriage?

The finance reports can also put to rest Simpson’s claim to have led the fight against HERO. Here is what Simpson said in his email titled “Why I’m Running for Re-Election”:

Led grassroots efforts in 2015 Houston elections to defeat HERO and to elect candidates in the runoff, yielding the closest Mayor’s race in over 50 years.

Now, I’m not going to call him a liar but I am going to tell you how I know that his statement is false. Click on the HCRP campaign finance spreadsheet above, sort it by date, and then compare the amount of money the HCRP spent before and after the November 2015 city elections. Remember, the election was held November 3, 2015. Here is what you’ll find.

Expenditures before November 3 – If you go back to Sept 1st and stretch your results to include food, etc, you’ll find about $2,000 spent on the city elections.

Expenditures after November 3 – Between Nov 3 and the Dec 12th runoff, the party spent $208,000.

So yes, Simpson did help during the runoff. In fact, the party became an extension of the Bill King campaign. But HERO was decided on November 3rd – the party and Simpson did not lead the effort to defeat HERO, in fact, they refused to participate.

In any other election year, Simpson’s exaggerations about his record, his penchant to take credit for other people’s work, the organizational change away from the grassroots, and the bloated state of the party would make me vote against Simpson.

But not this year.

Have you ever heard the term “too big to fail”? That is exactly what we are facing in the chair race. Simpson has built an organization that is too big to fail in a presidential election year. I know both of the guys running against Simpson, Rick Ramos and Tex Christopher. Good people. But neither one of them could operate the system that Simpson has built. Within a month of being elected, they would be closing the doors because they cannot go to big business and get the same funding that Simpson can. Big business knows that both men would speak out on the social issues confronting our society and they surely don’t want that, as evidenced by the Simpson administration. So that avenue of funding would be closed. The grassroots would come back but they cannot fund an organization as big as Simpson has built.

The bottom line is that I don’t think we have a choice but to re-elect Simpson. It would be a disaster to the entire Republican slate in November if the HCRP cannot function. Perhaps the Executive Committee can start to reign him in or he’ll see the problems with his current methods and begin to make corrections.

One thing is certain. Simpson is going to have to do better in getting the vote out this November. After the 2014 election, when I would tell people that voter turnout was down significantly, they looked at me like I was nuts because of the “sweep”. But as Polland points out above, turnout was down. Significantly. Why? Is it because Simpson refused to talk about the big three social issues? I think so. People need a reason to turnout. I hope he thinks about that.