So Dannie is running for Lite Guv – does he have a chance?

No. But that is the easy answer to an easy question. A better question is why? And why now? After listening to his radio show on 700 KSEV yesterday afternoon, my guess for the why question is to further his new career, Rev. Dan Patrick, traveling preacher. As for why now, I’ve told people for months that he looks overworked and tired and that I expected him not to run again for the Senate. Running for lite guv allows Sen. Dan Patrick to still be “in the news” but will give him plenty of time for rest. Hey, it’s a theory.

Another point to be considered is the consultant he hired, Allen Blakemore. While Blakemore has built up a strong presence in Harris County elections, he isn’t all that successful and has never won a statewide race to my knowledge. Has he ever run a statewide campaign? I can’t recall one. Blakemore’s forte is nasty campaigns and Patrick said yesterday that he is going to run a positive campaign. Can you say cognitive dissonance? If Patrick were serious about winning, might he have picked a consultant with a record of winning positive races? Or at least statewide races?

Blakemore’s staff has already made a huge gaff on the campaign website. You probably remember that Dannie wrote a book in another life called “The Second Most Important Book You’ll Ever Read: A Personal Challenge to Read the Bible“. Apparently Blakemore decided that second place isn’t good enough, even if you are second behind the Lord God. Have a looksie:

Notice how the Blakemore team changed the title to “The Most Important Book You’ll Ever Read”. Forget that dusty old book sitting on the shelf for a couple of thousand years, Dannie has to be numero uno. Great attention to detail by a high powered consultant.

Blakemore did do us a favor an uploaded a Quorum Report article by John Reynolds about the race. The article is funny in the way that happens when generally left leaning people try to right about right wing Republicans. I’m not sure who Reynolds talked to for the article but calling Dr. Steve Hotze and Terry Lowry “Tea Party Leaders from his [Patrick’s] neck of the woods” is pretty darn funny. Those two are a lot of things but “tea party” ain’t one of them. But let’s take a look at the strategy for winning that Reynolds came up with.

He said that his strategy would rely on winning Harris and Montgomery Counties while running strong in the suburban counties around Dallas and Fort Worth.

Patrick does have a good chance of winning in Harris County because of name ID but if he wins, it won’t be by a large margin for a couple of reasons. First, Blakemore himself. Blakemore has more enemies than Dannie has friends in Harris County. Take Sen. Joan Huffman – I guarantee you that she will not be helping Dannie because he hired Blakemore. Remember what Blakemore did to her when she first ran for office? You think she’s forgotten that? If you do, you are highly mistaken.

Second, think Rep. Patricia Harless. Her husband, Sam, is going to run for Dannie’s SD7 seat. How do you think she felt when Dannie coordinated his announcement with Paul Bettencourt’s announcement that he was running for Dannie’s old seat? Mmm, hmm. Harless has her own machine in SD7 that will wreak havoc on both Dannie and Paul. I expect Paul to win but Harless will not be working to help Dannie. Count on that.

Now move up to Montgomery County. You might recall a certain state senator named Tommy Williams has his political machine there. I’m sorry but Julie Turner has no chance of getting what is left of her Tea Party to outmaneuver Williams.

Suburbs of Dallas and Fort Worth? Ever heard of state senator John Carona? You think he’s going to let Dannie play in his backyard without a challenge?

Still, the race will be fun. Dannie will be high minded, Blakemore will be nasty, Dewhurst will throw a few million to highlight Dannie’s penchant to grandstand, backstab, and his personal problems. And the voters? Well, at this point, I’d look for a Patterson/Staples runoff.

UPDATE 7-5-13: They’ve corrected the website: