Okay, we’re down to the wire. Tomorrow will either be the end of a four year nightmare in the White House or a fresh start, a chance to return to some of our founding principles. So….who do you think is going to win? There is a very cool interactive site called 270towin.com that let’s us play with different scenarios and come up with our own prediction. In addition to myself and Ed Hubbard, we have two political insiders that help in the background at BJP. Here are our predictions, plus that of Michael Barone. I put them in order of most electoral votes for Mitt Romney (click on a map to enlarge it):
Whoo hoo! We all predict Romney winning! Take this post to Starbuck, give ’em five bucks, and they’ll give you a cup of coffee of your choice!
So what do you think? Hey, at least we put it out there. Try your luck and put your link in the comments. Betcha can’t beat me.
If you are in the Houston television market, be sure and tune in to Click2Houston (Channel 2, NBC affiliate) tomorrow night between 7 and 11. I’ll be on with Chris Bell to discuss the results – if you beat me, I’ll figure out a way to give you a shoutout on air! Also be sure and check the Houston Chronicle’s live Twitter feed – I’ll make sure and mention you there as well.
Chris Bell??? He’s still around? I thought that dude was in Bora Bora or Abu Dhabi.
Ed’s not allowed to call toss-ups. That defeats the point of predicting! Look, Nevada will be Obama. Union thugs and uninformed hispanics have too tight a grip on it.
Indiana – Romney
Florida – Romney
Virginia – Romney
North Carolina – Romney
New Hampshire – Romney
Ohio – Romney
Colorado – Romney
Wisconsin – Obama
Michigan – Obama
Pennsylvania – Obama
Minnesota – Obama
Nevada – Obama
Iowa – Obama
279 Romney/259 Obama
http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bqGm
Take it to the bank, Dave. My Twitter handle is @YourPalVic. I’ll be watching!
Here’s the predictions from the Hambone crew:
http://www.hamous.org/?p=5640
Victor, I agree. I meant to fill Nevada in blue for Obama. I think the union vote in Las Vegas will overcome the edge Romney would have with the Mormons in Nevada.
If the final vote today shifts decisively for Romney ala 1980 (which I am predicting) than keep a close eye on Illinois, New York and New Jersey–the first because of lower than expected registrations and early votes in Chicago, but higher early votes in the suburbs and downstate than 2008, and the other two because of how and where the storm affected communities that vote heavily Democratic. If the rest of the Midwest and Pennsylvania go for Romney, one or more of these states could provide the shocker of the night.
On the other hand, if Obama pulls this out, my guess is he will do it with either 281 or 294 Electoral Votes, depending on how Virginia would go, and he might well lose the popular vote.
“On the other hand, if Obama pulls this out, my guess is he will do it with either 281 or 294 Electoral Votes, depending on how Virginia would go, and he might well lose the popular vote.”
And all talk from the Democrats about eliminating the electoral college will vaporize for at least four years.
Obama= 332
Romney=206
Heh. Just the opposite of mine.
I think this whole election will come down to the accuracy of the turnout assumptions underlying most of the polling. Virtually all of the polls showed Romney gaining a widening lead before Sandy, which halted and narrowed, but began to expand again over the weekend and yesterday in national, state, and tracking polls. What is keeping this race close in those polls, or giving Obama a slight edge is the assumption that the Dem-base turnout will equal or surpass its turnout in 2008. However, so far, that turnout rate has not materialized and in many parts of the country it is substantially lower than 2008–even in Chicago; while the Obama team concedes that most of its voters have already voted.
If the turnout assumptions of the pollsters and the Obama team end-up being correct, Obama probably wins with 281-294 Electoral Votes, but could narrowly sweep the table as Izzy’s prediction suggests. If it’s not, as the trend in early and absentee voting suggests, I think we are looking at a significant Electoral victory for Romney.
In my last comment I meant to say that the polls were showing Romney with a widening lead, especially among Independents, before Sandy, and that the trend among Independents began to widen again over the weekend. With Romney’s growing lead among Independents, the only thing keeping this race tight in the polls is the Dem turnout assumption.
I don’t think we can discount the Bradley Effect among white Democrats either. They’ve been so brainwashed by the media and their fellow Democrats into believing that a vote for Romney is a racist vote they wouldn’t dare answer a pollster with a vote for Romney. It’s sad that it always comes down to race for Democrats.
Obama wins with approximately 300 EVs.
while I am not solid on my prediction, I am foretelling 269-269. Romney wins florida, colorado, nevada, iowa, virgina, north carolina. Obama wins ohio, wisconsin, new hampshire, michigan, pennsylvania.
of course, Im not sure on Nevada. But if Nevada goes O, and any of the above (for O) go the other way for Romney (except NH), then Romney wins anyway.
Under the 269 scenario Romney wins due to screw systems in Maine and Nebraska.
I didn’t post it here, but suffice it to say that my prediction was … not accurate.
Congratulations to Izzy or bob42 for getting closest to the actual outcome. Of courst, the victory was largely by default because you two were the only ones who admitted to seeing this freight-train coming.
Unfortunately, the only prize for winning this prediction is another four years of what we’ve been living through these past four years. Groundhog Day on a national level.
Friends, nobody pays any attention to me, but I have served in every election, except 1, when I was on the ballot, since November 2008, as an Alternate Judge.
I has seen some sloppy, misguided and really wrongly executed procedures in the polling places. There is only so much I can do, in one polling place.
Let me warn you all: there is no point in trying to run for election as a conservative until you get your own workers into the polling places. I’m not talking about just signing Appointment Letters for poll watchers. Until you are satisfied that your interests will be represented inside every polling place in whatever district you seek to win, you are wasting your time and money, my time and money and the time and money of all of your supporters. Put your campaign efforts into the primaries and then spend the fall making sure the elections are conducted properly. (Next time you see me, ask me about the JBC slips, for starters.)
Until you involve yourself in True the Vote, you are just spitting into the wind.
Okay, Peggy, tell me about the JBC slips? I worked as a clerk for half a day and we had zero problems.
Saw Ian Anderson last Saturday night. Check this out
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BV-ASc0qkrM
OK, Dave. As you may know, some polling places host elections for precincts besides the precincts in which they are located.
There are some precincts, like out in the county, in unincorporated areas, which may be divided as to some smaller entity, like M.U.D. districts, which have elected boards. (Not that this was the case yesterday, just an example.) The JBC* slips are to be issued by the clerks at the voter books. Next to each voter’s name is his “ballot style.” The slip is to have the number of the precinct, as 4 digits, because there are 1,064 precincts in Harris County, and a 2 digit number after the dash, which indicates which ballot is to be pulled up for an individual voter, as to the little districts that may divide the precinct. There will be multiple buttons on the JBC (the machine that prints the access code slips) and the JBC operator is to print the access code specific to the ballot style, as shown on the JBC slip. (*JBC stands for Judge’s Ballot Controller.)
I suspect that Stan Stanart, in his wisdom, has chosen to go to the trouble and expense of holding individual elections in each of the smaller precincts, where the results have been strangely skewed in the past. Precinct 344, where we were yesterday, has only about 1,225+/- registered voters in it, whereas Precinct 1 has about 2,200. The difference is in the people who conduct the elections.
All day, I kept thinking about what Reagan said: “It’s not what they don’t know, it’s what they know that isn’t true.” When questioned about certain of the dumb and/or useless procedures she insisted upon, she advised that they were “what she had learned in class.” Not in any class I ever attended taught by Tom Moon or Sonya Aston.
Suppose 3 precincts vote at one location and 1 of the precincts is in CD 2; 2 are in CD 18. The first button controls the ballot containing the CD 2 race and the other 2 ballot styles feature CD 18. I live in CD 18 and want to vote for Sean Siebert, but the clerk pushes the button for the Ted Poe race. Ted Poe is going to win anyway. I just voted for Ted Poe.
Yesterday, the Presiding Judge insisted that I give a “ticket” to everybody who came in the door. I resisted briefly, but upon reflection, concluded that there was only one possible ballot style, so that they were irrelevant anyway. To keep her happy and feeling in control, I did it for a while. Couldn’t hurt and gave me something to do until nobody cared anymore. She had given me something useless to do while her crew performed the tasks that mattered.
Was it Stalin who said something about who counted the ballots? The people who run the elections, in the precincts, are directing the course of the votes, whether they “count” the ballots or not.
And one other thing: the two poll watchers and I concluded that the election, sloppy as it was, was probably a lot cleaner because we were there. Of the errors that were made, most were made due to poor management in the polling place, rather than out and out malfeasance.
Anybody else get called a “slave master” by a guy in a Black Panthers uniform?
Peggy, you just went through an elaborate scenario, then admitted that nothing happened.
And no, I’ve never been called a slave master.
Now, about those slips, we used them (I think they are the same thing) but we gave them to voters after we checked them in – they used them to get a ballot code from the JBC operator. They worked as a check/balance for us.
@ Peggy
“Yesterday, the Presiding Judge insisted that I give a “ticket” to everybody who came in the door. I resisted briefly, but upon reflection, concluded that there was only one possible ballot style, so that they were irrelevant anyway.”
This is a violation of election law. The assumption is that all who walk in the door are registered to that polling location. Unless the voters are qualified before “everybody came in the door”…….and then If the alternate judge and election judge do not see this process then you have a flawed system at your polling place.
My precinct had two ballot styles. 300-180 and 300-190. One was never used. I finally figured out what happened. There was a mud board election in part of our precinct that was cancelled because only the incumbents ran and no challengers existed. ONe of my poll workers researched half of our voter list and not one ballot style existed fo 300-190. WE have ~5000 registeed voters.
Peggy, we had trouble getting a democratic alt judge.
Does anyone know what happens to the voter list versus the poll list post election?
Tim