Campaign finance reports are interesting reading. No, really. Try it some day and you'll see what I mean. And comparing campaign finance reports to campaign finance report press releases is even more interesting because it reveals the numbers behind the numbers. And in the race to replace Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, the numbers behind the numbers are crucial to understanding the race at this early stage. Which is why campaigns hope you read their campaign finance report press releases and not their campaign finance reports. Because if you did….
Let's see. If you did, you would know that the Ted Cruz campaign claimed victory in the second quarter funding race but in reality, they tied with the Tom Leppert campaign. And you would also know that a lot of the cash that the Cruz campaign has on hand cannot be used in the primary. I pointed this out after the first quarter reporting period but no one seemed to care because the campaigns weren't in "attack" mode.
I think we can safely say that the Tom Leppert campaign has moved to the next phase of their campaign and is now ready to point out the contrasts between their campaign and their opponents, in this case the Cruz campaign. I still think that is where the race is going to be, although I might have overestimated the importance of Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst jumping in after watching his terrible campaign rollout last week, even if he can bankroll his own campaign. Money apparently cannot buy competence. It might be that instead of fighting for a runoff spot with Mr. Dewhurst, Mr. Cruz and Mr. Leppert might be fighting to be in a runoff against each other. Or trying to get to, as political consultant Allen Blakemore says, fifty point one and take it without a runoff. Either way, this press release from the Leppert campaign is why I think they have gotten the message:
See what I mean? Rather than a 2 to 1 lead in cash on hand, the Leppert campaign has a 3 to 1 lead. Now, if you are like me and like to check things out for yourself, do as I did and review the reports yourself. Click here to view Ted Cruz's second quarter report and here to view Tom Leppert's. My eyes are still crossed but as best as I can tell, the press release is accurate. I did email the Cruz campaign for comment but have not received a reply as yet.
When you get right down to it, Mr. Leppert has out raised Mr. Cruz for this primary by over a half million dollars, $1,639,056 to $1,127,954 and leads in Cash on Hand by $3.2m to $1.0m. You wouldn't know that if you depended on campaign finance report press releases or professional political pundits, would you? I'm going to go ahead and break it down further (oh my eyes) but I'm guessing that Mr. Leppert will remain the leader in contributions from Texas while Mr. Cruz will have the lead from national donors. And Mr. Cruz certainly leads in endorsements, having garnered another national name just yesterday, Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky. Question is, will those endorsements translate to contributions? We haven't seen that happen yet in this race: if we had, Mr. Cruz would be sitting comfortably. And given Mr. Leppert's willingness to invest personally in the race, Mr. Cruz is anything but comfortable on the financial side and has recently brought in Harris Media to help with fundraising and social media.
Chances are that by posting this, I'm going to once again be painted as "in the pocket of" Tom Leppert because I wrote a balanced piece about him the other day. As any long time reader knows, I do not favor candiates in a primary except in very rare local situations and certainly not in a statewide race, so if anyone tells you that, you can dismiss it without further thought. My goal is to give readers information and this is good information to have if you want to understand the race. And I promise you that all those political professionals that dismissed Mr. Leppert without thought are rethinking the race today.
JKH says
Leppert is shaping up to be a serious contender, not sure how Dewhurst can hold off him and Cruz after his horrible campaign launch
Alvin Walker says
"And given Mr. Leppert's willingness to invest personally in the race." Two point one million dollars is one heck of a investment. Wake up and smell the PORK, this is a loan. Which means he will get it paid back. This period Ted Cruz spent 138k and Leppert spent 445k. Over a three to one ratio. At this rate Leppert will need to write himself another BIG FAT check soon. The reports also show this period after refunds that Ted Cruz bought in $755,944.0 and Leppert $753,282.11. So when you tie with your opponent, but outspend him 3-1 you're in trouble. When we look at cash on hand less DEBT we find that Ted Cruz has over 200k more. While some of this must be spent on the general eliction this shows that people know Ted Cruz is the one that will make it to the general election. You go ahead and stay with another fat cat career politician, me I'm going to vote for Ted Cruz. This senate seat is not up for sale Mr. Leppert.
David Jennings says
LOL, I told you. Unless I attack someone, I'm for them I guess. Fat cat career politician? Methinks you should look again.
BTW, is Mr. Cruz’ $70,000 personal investment also “PORK”?
Alvin Walker says
Not sure how we can compare 70k to 2.1 million. 70k won't even buy my little house whereas 2.1 mil might buy the whole sub-division. Numbers never lie but they can be twisted to show what you want. It seems Mr. Leppert has hired some expert numbers twisters.A quick run though on the reports show Ted Cruz filed 341 pages to Lepperts 279. More pages means more contributors and more grassroots support. In Lepperts report it seems like every person lives in Dallas or close by. When we look at Teds it is a cross section of Texas and the United States. Lets look at "unitemized contributions". These are donations under two hundred fifty dollars. Ted Cruz has $69,792.00 and Mr. Leppert has $17,530.00. Ted Cruz is bringing in four dollars to one from the everyday folks like you and me. There are thousands of folks like myself that give a little every month. We are also the ones that will help get out the vote, have a sign in our yard and bumper stickers on our cars. We will block walk, make phone calls and hand out push cards on election day. We are in every city small and large. So it seems when we look the 800 pound gorilla in the eye, we see that without the 2.1 million loan Lepperts house of cards doesn't look so good. Y'all do whatever you want, I'm voting for Ted Cruz.
Darren says
Shucks. I thought you were in the pocket of Ted Cruz. Does that at least balance things out?
EricPWJohnson says
David and Alvin
The 70,000 may have been a customary seed money payment to ensure a professional staff that they ae committed to the campaign
Also, I have no problem with wealthy Americans lending millions to their campaigns, generally wealthy Americans pay the vast majority of the taxes (if you include their employees taxes as well) and usually are conservative, very conservative
David Jennings says
I agree with you Eric. I have no problem at all with wealthy people investing in their campaigns. Not sure why that is a problem for some. But I knew that as soon as I pointed out the cash on hand after providing a balanced report on Mr. Leppert that I would be cast as a Leppert supporter. As you well know, I don't support anyone in primaries. Not since Huck anyways. 😉
EricPWJohnson says
I would never dismiss a candidate that can raise 750K in a primary – also some might not realize tht wealthy candidates have an extremely difficult time raising money than more grassroot candidates as people are reluctant to give as much to a millionaire they support (they will give but the amount is less) than they would a "man" of the people
So whoever anyone supports – remember that even Jesus said somehing about a richman a camel and the eye of a needle
Well, I'm sitting at the airport in Houston, leaving Doha, going back to Tennessee to prepare the stuff for our move to Indonesia
Today I have 3 kids on 3 continents…
Simly Lynn says
Yes, I have nothing against anyone, but I am voting for TED CRUZ. Nothing can be more ridiculous than what we currently have going on in Congress!
I bet if they had to work in a building with NO air conditioner, no refreshments, and definitely not getting paid more than 6 figures each, a resolution would have taken place months ago. Only my opinion.
Chris T. says
Whatever the argument, Leppert looks like a serious contender poised to take down Cruz and Dewhurst