Polls by Fox News and The Wall Street Journal which, unlike the rest of the mainstream media, have been friendly toward Trump, show Joe Biden with a comfortable lead over the president.
The two polls show the White Obama with a solid lead among African-Americans. They also show that the majority of women and Hispanics will vote for Biden.
However, a CNN poll shows Biden with only a one point lead over Trump in 15 crucial battleground states. That poll shows men and those between the age of 35 and 64 supporting Trump.
Of course polls have been known to be wrong. In 2016, the polls showed Hillary Clinton winning just a few days before the election. While Clinton did get three million more votes than Trump, she lost the electoral college vote. That’s because Clinton ran a piss-poor campaign, campaigning all over the country, including in states that were a cinch to vote for the Democrats. On the other hand, Trump ran a smart campaign, concentrating his campaign on the key battleground states. Biden is not likely to make the same mistake Clinton made.
Trump calls any poll “fake news” if it shows him behind and claims his own polls show him well ahead.
Trump is counting on his base, which includes far-right militias and white supremacists, to return him to office. But his base is estimated to be only 35 percent of the electorate and he needs more than his base to win.
Biden will get the vote of college students and recent college graduates because they have been indoctrinated by Marxist and other far-left professors into believing their salvation lies with the Democrat-Socialist party.
Trump can probably count on a majority of white men to vote for him but he badly needs the women’s vote. Right now it looks as though he has lost the support of the all important suburban housewives.
Trump has been his own worst enemy when it comes to women. He has a history of attacking women by mocking their bodily functions, demeaning their looks or comparing them to animals. His recent derogatory name-calling of Kamala Harris (mad woman), Nancy Pelosi (stone-cold crazy) and Mika Brzezinski (ditzy airhead) may sit well with his base but it’s not going to endear him to women.
Right now, except for the CNN poll, it looks as though the good ship Trump is about to run aground. What can save the doomed ship? Three events.
- An end to the COVID-19 pandemic and a pre-corona economy by October.
- Biden has a bad meltdown in two of the three scheduled debates. But that is unlikely to happen if the moderators are from the Trump-hating media. They will slow pitch softballs at Biden and throw hardballs at the president.
- A 9/11-like event. For instance, if in October Iran were to attack our aircraft carriers in the Persian Gulf, a devastating response by Trump would be very popular with the vast majority of Americans.
Those of us that are unalterably opposed to the Biden-Harris ticket must pray for a Trump-favoring October surprise.
While the state of the pandemic may change, unless the CARES act is extended, there will further economic deterioration between Sept 15 and Nov 3. Trump/Senate GOP is really making a terrible mistake by not recognizing that the Dems hold all the cards and not conceeding on their bill. The Dems were willing to make a deal, even knowing that it probably helps the GOP more than them (because the country is hurting) but the GOP is negotiating as if its Pelosi who needs this done. She doesnt, and even worse for the GOP, enough Republicans will vote against any bill to provide cover for any Dem that wants to kill it.
Biden will not likely meltdown in the debates. He also has some throwaway lines to “bail him out” if he gets into a jam on a question. Easy things to remember like “I wont suggest people injest bleach, My family didnt get a payoff from the Saudis in return for authorizing the execution of a US citizen, Ill read the intel report and act if they say Russia is paying terrorists a bounty on US troops.”
I think Iran will be very careful in the next 2.5 months in regards to responses to a Trump induced provacation. They know that a Biden admin wont be their ally…but know that the Dems want to stop being the fools willing to do Saudi Arabias dirty work for them. They also know that US-Netanyahu relations will be icy, and US-Turkish relations will be worse (which may include kicking Turkey out – for cause – from NATO). Iran also knows that under a Biden Admin, the focuses of US foreign policy will likely be on Russia and China (yes, even the Dems are going to focus on them). Yes, Trump needs something to happen…so he may try to provoke Iran. I think thats less likely for a variety of reasons (pushback from those needed to do it). The more likely provocation is to embed right wingers as provocateurs with Antifa or a group that can be claimed to be Antifa, in order to induce a significantly violent attack and hope Biden gets blamed for it.
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Campaigns and pundits always spin. Dont pay attention to what they SAY…pay attention to what the DO to figure out where things stand. Right now, Trump is taking a huge gamble on the USPS. That may be a sign that they know they’re down in the polls. Biden is acting stable and unruffled. He isnt taking risks. That may be a sign as well. Maybe overconfidence…maybe a strategy to make this all about “making the chaos stop”.
Right now, the only GOP strategy appears to be to attempt to exploit gender, religious, and racial divisions in the hopes that engenders a Nixon 1968 type response. Along with a lot of thinly veiled voter suppression attempts. It will work with some, but its unclear whether this will be decisive.
The election isnt over and may likely tighten somewhat. 15% blowouts are rare. But I dont get the GOP strategy right now. But with swing state voting starting in 30 days in some places and 57 days in Texas, theyre running out of time.
Tom,
Wow. I don’t think I can agree with any of that. You think some right wing plants need to be embedded with Antifa and BLM to make them look violent? Really? I mean, have you been living on an island somewhere? There’s videos almost daily of random people being killed and nearly killed by the rioters in Portland, Seattle, NYC, Chicago, and other places. Biden voters are quite capable of being violent and destructive all by themselves….no help needed.
You think Biden will be tough on Iran? What’s he gonna do? Fly in more planeloads of unmarked cash? I wish someone would be tough on me like that. And can you clarify exactly HOW the Biden administration is gonna focus on China. Will that be more deals for Hunter, this time flying on AF1? I don’t recall Team Obama trying to get tough with China, but now Biden’s gonna just lay down the law? Where was this laying down of law during the 8 years Biden was VP? What epiphany did Biden have, and when did he have it? It certainly wasn’t during his VP tenure.
As to Iran, while I want to agree with you, the conventional wisdom is that a war time president is popular. This isn’t a traditional president, however, and Trump’s base aren’t traditional Republicans. We don’t WANT war, not even against Iran. The fact that Trump has started no new wars, and is pulling troops out of Afghanistan and Syria, and trying to make a peace deal to fully leave Afghanistan is why we voted for the guy. This is why the McCain/Romney/Bush type Republicans hate Trump. Trump won’t go to war and is trying to stop the wars they started.
As to the Dem proposed Porkulous bailout, Trump is right to hold the line. He’s offered an EO to do what is necessary, which will necessitate Dems having to sue to stop him trying to bail out jobless Americans in danger of eviction. That will make Dems look bad, not Trump.
And this was my favorite part of your post:
“Right now, the only GOP strategy appears to be to attempt to exploit gender, religious, and racial divisions….”
Um, hello, that’s exactly what Dems have done! Look at the pandering, affirmative action VP nomination, for example. Best, most qualified candidate? Hell no! We want an ‘African American’ woman. And Dems even failed on that. Kamala is black, but she’s not ‘African American.’ Right now you’ve got bands of violent blm and antifa street thugs out terrorizing people over…..racial divisions. You’re fomenting hatred of Christians with the false narrative that “Pence is gonna put gays in camps.” Who, exactly, is exploiting gender, religious and racial divisions? It isn’t Trump supporters tearing up their cities over race.
About the only thing I agree with you on is the current dust up over mail in ballots…..it’s something of a gamble, but mass mailing ballots is going to be a disaster, and someone needs to just be the adult in the room and say no, we’re not going to do that, we’re going to do it the usual and customary way we have always done it.
Bill, how do you square your undying love for Trump with the fact that he is a liar, stupid beyond belief, treats women merely as a place to put his penis, is destroying the country, is destroying alliances built over 70 plus years, cheats suppliers to his businesses, tries to destroy the post office for personal gain, and is a narcissistic bully? Are you just blind? Trump is by far the worst President in my lifetime, which I thought Jimmy Carter had locked up forever.
Trump has done nothing to make this country stronger. Everything he has done is intended to make him and his family richer, regardless of who gets hurt. And that’s ignoring his utter failure on Covid. The man is a stupid menace with no redeeming qualities.
Ross,
How long has it been since you stopped beating your wife? Was it before or after you started seeing that other woman on the side? See how this works? I can ask the same kind of gotcha questions you can, and neither of us have made any kind of point.
Leftists have been on an almost 4 year temper tantrum meltdown that would rival any 3 year old in the Walmart toy aisle. It wuz her turn! The big lie that Trump is a Russian agent? That was Team Obama that lied. Ukraine? That was Joe Biden’s corruption, not Trump’s. The rioters in the streets? Those are YOUR people. Those are Joe Biden voters. Dead Americans from the Wu flu? Blame the Democrat governors that forced nursing homes to take in Wu flu patients. Cuomo, Whitmer, and the others that did that are guilty of not just malfeasance, but of murder. Did you want Trump to send in troops to stop Cuomo from flooding the nursing homes with Wu flu patients? I mean, OK, but I thought you were against the federal government coming in to help. Did you oppose sending in the two Navy hospital ships? I mean, it was pretty much a waste of time, neither one treated more than a handful of patients.
Back at the beginning, Trump banned travel from China, and then from Europe, Then while Dems were killing grandma, Trump was making deals to mass produce respirators and other PPE.
And let’s just hit that last point. the stupid menace beat the most qualified candidate for president ever. Stupid. Beat the most qualified woman. I think I’ve got it, Ross.