I want readers to keep thinking about the “whys” of the disaster last week for the Harris County Republican Party. So today we have a couple of things to review.
First, this from HCRP Chair Paul Simpson:
The obvious question: if Donald Trump won the presidency, how did he/we do so poorly in Harris County? Consider:
- The beginnings of an answer are in this Washington Post article and accompanying graphics: Hillary Clinton won virtually every urban area (even Orange County, California, which hasn’t gone for a Democrat since Franklin Roosevelt), while Trump won rural areas and the Midwest.
- Hillary Clinton won Congressional District 7.
- Donald Trump lost Harris County by 162K, while John McCain lost it by only 19K in 2008
- Harris County 2016 GOP straight-ticket votes declined 3K (1{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}) below 2012, while Democrat straight-ticket voting increased 64K (14{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}), giving Democrats a 70K starting advantage in Harris County this year (up from a 47K Dem advantage in 2008, and a 3K Dem advantage in 2012).
On a positive note: after record-setting Republican results in Harris County in 2014 and 2015, this one election did not reverse our prior gains overnight. The downdraft from the top of the ticket overwhelmed us down ballot this year. But I expect that won’t be repeated, after the performance of our new Republican President and Congress counteract the widespread hysteria and demonization of this election.
The map in the Washington Post he links to isn’t all that helpful to me but apparently it works for him and his team. Note that he mentions that Clinton won CD7, a long-time Republican stronghold currently represented by Rep. John Culberson, who won easily. Which begs the question, if CD7 voters were able to cross over, vote for the Democrat for President and then cross back to elect Republicans, why is Simpson hinging his argument on an anti-Trump wave? Or “headwind” as he calls it. And there he goes with that 2014/15 “record-setting” stuff again. We’ll look carefully at that soon.
He continues:
But hope is not a strategy. We need to know what works and what doesn’t, without guessing or self-delusion. (Monday-morning quarterbacking ungrounded in facts contributes nothing to that process.) I am committed to questioning and analyzing everything we do, and constantly trying new things, to optimize what the Harris County Republican Party can and will do to win.
I’d like to point out that we aren’t Monday morning quarterbacking, we are simply posing questions and posting data. And it isn’t Monday morning quarterbacking to point out that the “Harris County Works” message didn’t work at all – many of us, including candidates on the ballot, were saying that the message was wrong long before the election.
Mary Landrum asks in the comments:
I’d like to see the number of seats won in 2008 and 2012. My memory is that we only won a very few seats – especially judicial ones. And I saw many more volunteers out working this year. I wouldn’t dishonor all of the hard work done by numerous volunteers by claiming that Paul Simpson didn’t energize the party. I was getting bombarded with requests for help.
Could the slogan have been better? As a “Monday morning quarterback,” maybe so. But I don’t think a different slogan would have gotten that many more voters to the polls. We can’t deny that the top of the ticket had an impact.
Hmm, there’s that Monday morning quarterback line again. To be clear, I’m not dishonoring anything about Paul or the volunteers, I’m just laying out things so that we can maybe prevent this from happening in the future. So here is the answer to Mary’s question:
Harris County | 2008 | 2012 | 2016 | |||
D | R | D | R | D | R | |
Results in contested races | 40 | 7 | 21 | 22 | 43 | 0 |
Median Vote | 563,625 | 539,017 | 566,698 | 567,868 | 656,755 | 601,461 |
Average Vote | 560,364 | 539,066 | 564,848 | 569,787 | 654,758 | 597,251 |
Click here to see a chart of all races by position.
Clearly, by any measure you want to take, 2016 was a disaster. Zero wins countywide is significant whether you want to call it Monday morning quarterbacking or not.
In my opinion Simpson just happened to be the Chair of the Republican Party. There is nothing that the Democrats did that got people out to vote. Most of the votes were driven by Trump.
While there is no way that I can ever support a party that has its president that starts his campaign by claiming that Mexicans are rapists.
But, based on how the Democratic Party is reacting they won’t do again in two years. They seem to have the dumbest persons representing them and their tent is even smaller than the Republican tent.
The Republicans in Texas has always tended to be smarter than the national politicians when it comes to the Latinos in Texas. It is no wonder that George W. Bush did so well with them. Dan Patrick is correct when he says they need to reach out to them and voting down the Mexican-American text book sends a strong positive message.
So unless the Democratic Party somehow grows a brain, I don’t expect the same results in two years, but two years is a long time.
Muslims have a fairly large presence in Harris County and they voted against Trump. I don’t blame them. With talks of registry for Muslims and internment camps I don’t expect that to change.
The driving force in two years will probably be Donald Trump again, either good or bad for the Republican Party.
Neither Here Nor There,
This is the best comment I’ve seen in a long time:
Let’s hope they don’t figure that out.
Trump is an easy target. He definitely hurt in District 7 I walked blocks in that neighborhood. But Harris County Republican leadership was dismal.
1. Commissioners Court. Since when does being a widow qualify a person for District Attorney. No one is saying Devon Anderson is not a nice person. (lets grow up here, being against someone is not trashing their personality or worth. Only worth in a particular role) Time and again she was just inept. Giving the planned parenthood case to an expiring Grand Jury whose reputation for liberal leanings was documented. The DA is supposed to control that. Here ineptness as a DA goes on from there.
2. I went to Republican Memorial City and HQ. The energy was high, enthusiastic and young. Compared to Mitt Romney’s campaign where I have been to livelier cemeteries. So intensity was there. Focus was not. As in any team the focus is the coach’s responsibility. In this case the coach is the county chair.
3. it has been said that the County Chair was pressured into positions by County Judge Ed Emmitt. Going to the premise of my piece, The fault lies with Harris County Republican Leadership. Commissioners Court and Republican Chair.
CALL TO ACTION!!!!!!!!!!! NA NA NA NAA; NA NA NA NAAA: Eeeeed Emmiiiiiiiiiitt good bye!!!!!!!!!
Spot on.