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Do Alleged Pay to Play Endorsements Work?

David Jennings

 

Very.

There are three main players: Terry Lowry’s Link Letter, Steven Hotze’s Conservative Republicans of Texas, and Gary Polland’s Texas Conservative Review. Each of these have been around awhile and make a lot of money doing this. Let’s compare them for success rates. I’ve added the United Republicans of Harris County and the Houston Chronicle endorsements for comparison purposes. I rarely hear charges of pay to play against the URHC, if you know differently, please contact me or leave a comment.

Here is how they stacked up after the March 2nd primary:

Lowry

Hotze

Polland

URHC

Chronicle

Number of Endorsements

30

30

22

32

17

Outright Wins

21

20

13

16

4

Runoffs

7

7

3

6

2

Losses

2

3

6

10

11

Win {997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}

70.0{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}

66.7{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}

59.1{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}

50.0{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}

23.5{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}

Runoff {997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}

23.3{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}

23.3{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}

13.6{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}

18.8{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}

11.8{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}

Loss {997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}

6.7{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}

10.0{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}

27.3{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}

31.3{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}

64.7{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}

 

The number I used for “Number of Endorsements” is the total of all races in which each publication picked a single candidate. Some of the slates, such as Mr. Polland’s, picked multiple candidates in several races. As you can see, Mr. Lowry leads the pack with over 93{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of his recommendations either winning outright or claiming a spot in a runoff. Mr. Hotze isn’t far behind at 90{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}. And the Chronicle isn’t close to being in tune with Harris County Republicans.

The harder question: is this causation or simple correlation? Put another way, do Mr. Lowry and Mr. Hotze actually impact the races or are they simply picking the winners based upon the money they receive, which would indicate that these candidates have the most money in the first place?

How about I wimp out and say that the correlation is too strong not to indicate causation in some races but not strong enough to say, if these guys endorse you, you win? Note that if they agree, as they did 23 times, the candidate had a 100{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} success rate, either winning outright or getting into a runoff.

I think that we should take a look at the race for County Tax Assessor-Collector and we can surmise that they did move the electorate. Leo Vasquez was, at a minimum, as qualified as the other candidate – in education and business experience, he was far more qualified. He spent 6 times the amount of money. His name was on every tax bill. And he was pummeled at the polls. Most are saying that it happened because of his Latino surname, and it certainly looked that way shortly after the election, but I don’t think so.

There certainly is some disadvantage to having a Latino surname in both parties. To declare how big or how small that disadvantage is would be nothing more than a WAG. It is there, much the same as you’d rather vote for someone in your neck of the woods than someone “over there” but I don’t think it is a determining factor. There are many, many people talking about this:

And hundreds, literally, of others. Read a few and maybe you can decide how large the disadvantage is in your mind. And the one thing I haven’t quite figured out is why David Porter defeated Victor Carrillo so badly in Harris County. Although Lowry and Polland didn’t endorse anyone in the race, both Hotze and the URHC endorsed Carrillo. And Porter still won Harris County 53-47. Could the bias be 6{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} or higher?

But truly, I think we can lay Mr. Vasquez’ defeat at the hands of the social conservatives, who are influenced by Mr. Hotze and Mr. Lowry. Sure, the last name hurt. And there were probably a couple hundred folks that didn’t like the way he settled the lawsuit that the Democrats filed after the 2008 election. And there might have been a few people aware of Mr. Vasquez’ personal relationship with the woman he is living with. And some of the older folks in the party probably remember Mr. Sumners from his days as County Treasurer. But all of those combined would not have resulted in Mr. Vasquez’ 14{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} defeat.

Now, each of those factors surely influenced Mr. Lowry and Mr. Hotze, most especially Mr. Vasquez’ living arrangement. And when each of them are mailing out 140,000 sample ballots, that is going to have an impact, like it or not. It certainly didn’t hurt that Mr. Sumners paid Mr. Lowry to help with the cost of mailing these out but in this specific case, I bet Leo Vasquez could have given Mr. Lowry $50,000 and he still would not have circled his name in red on that sample ballot.

Many ask me, what can we as Republicans do about it? After all, their guys win! If we want to win, we have to play along. And there is much truth to that but remember, in the bigger picture, the trend has reversed itself and it is now pointing towards their guys losing in the general election. This makes the HCRP weaker on the whole, so it must be addressed, which is why Ed Hubbard pointed it out at the Downtown Houston Pachyderm Club last week.

There are some easy steps, but they are voluntary. First, they need to publish a rate sheet before the election. Then, publish a list of endorsements and say, here are my endorsements, anyone is welcome to buy an ad at the pre-published rates. Obviously, this too could be abused but it is a start.

The county party could publish a voters guide similar to the League of Women Voters. Again, this could be abused but it is a start. The current precinct chair list and candidates committee reports are inadequate at best.

The main thing is that the voters need to know about it and vote against the candidates paying for it until these changes are made. Mr. Lowry and Mr. Hotze will adjust to changing market conditions. Which is why I keep bringing it up and will continue to keep bringing it up. Yes, I do care about conservative values being swept aside in Harris County and that will happen if the current system doesn’t change.

Another question frequently asked is why do I pick on Mr. Lowry so much? I’ve explained that many times but I’ll say it again: it is because he does it under the guise of “if you are a good Christian, you will vote this way”. Nothing could be further from the truth – the Republican Party is not an arm of God. Besides, Steven Hotze is some sort of wellness doctor that talks more about fruits, nuts, and his years of researching NAMBLA than he does politics. I have no desire to look under that rock. And Polland’s guides at least have a paragraph or two about the candidates. Not great but certainly better than the others.

So, to come full circle, yes, these pay to play slates have an effect, a huge effect, on the Harris County Republican Party.

Note: Click here to view a Google Spreadsheet of the Endorsements

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