These are really bad times for President Trump.
The COVID-19 pandemic keeps right on rolling along and may well remain with us in November. Trump’s answer to the alarming spike in COVID-19 cases is to slow down coronavirus testing because that will show a smaller number of new cases. And Biden and the Democrats are going to have a field day with Trump’s suggestion that people drink toilet bowl cleaners to prevent or cure coronavirus.
The unemployment rate is very high and could remain that way by November. A robust Trump economy has gone into the dumpster. Many of the jobs that have been lost due to the coronavirus crises are gone forever. While the economy has recovered somewhat, the increase in corona cases is likely to bring it down again. No president has ever been reelected with a poor economy and high unemployment rate.
John Bolton’s book makes Trump appear unfit for office. Even if his claims are completely untrue, many people will believe them.
If the Trump family is unable to block a tell-all book by Mary Trump, the President’s niece, people will get a picture of a pre-2016 Trump that will be anything but flattering. She calls Trump the “World’s Most Dangerous Man.”
The media, Biden and the Democrats are accusing Trump of being unconcerned about the “pain” blacks feel due to the deaths of George Floyd and other blacks at the hands of the nation’s “racist” police. force. And Trump has done nothing to make people believe otherwise.
All the polls show Biden well ahead of Trump in the key battleground states. Trump claims all those polls are “fake news”, but they cannot all be wrong. And Biden and the DNC have raised considerably more money in the past two months than Trump and the RNC.
In ordinary times, Trump would have looked like a sure winner. He kept most of the promises he made. He wiped out the business-stifling regulations enacted by his predecessor which resulted in a robust economy and the lowest unemployment rate for blacks in this country’s history. He appointed two conservative justices to SCOTUS and would have been able to appoint a third justice were it not for an ailing Ruth Bader Ginsburg hanging in there only to keep him from doing so. He pulled out of Obama’s appeasement deal with Iran. He pulled out of the Paris Agreement on Climate Change, which Obama signed and which would have hurt our economy more than that of any other nation. I could go on and on, but I doubt most Americans are aware of all the good Trump has accomplished. Trump did indeed make America great again.
But these are not ordinary times. This is the Year of Corona. Our economy is in shambles and is not likely to recover all that much by October. Some 41 million Americans lost their jobs and many of them will still be unemployed by October. Trump appears to have done little to stop the spread of COVIG-19 and will be remembered mostly for his toilet bowl cleaner suggestion.
And now we have the suggestion by the Demoncrats and the Trump-hating media that the President ignored intelligence reports of the Russians paying the Taliban a bounty for every American soldier they killed. Trump has called that intelligence a hoax and, in my opinion, that’s exactly what it is. Vladimir Putin is trying to restore Russia to the greatness it enjoyed when it was the former Soviet Union. In that the Russian leader will do everything he can to make things difficult for the United States. But paying the Taliban a bounty goes beyond the pale. That would be stupid and Putin is not stupid. Russia may very well be funding the Taliban in it’s fight against the American-backed Afghan government, but that would be no different from our funding of the rebels fighting to overthrow Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. The source of this unintelligent intelligence must have been the tooth fairy. But nevertheless, Trump’s enemies are making it look like Trump is is unconcerned about the lives of our soldiers because he is a pawn of the despised Putin, and many people will be led to believe it.
Ever since he took office, Trump’s enemies have been relying on the Goebbels factor. Nazi propaganda minister Joseph Goebbels said: “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it.”
I don’t think there will be a sudden miraculous end to the coronavirus crisis. And because of that the economy will not recover fully either.
In my opinion, the only hope Trump has is that the majority of Americans will get so fed up with the BLM mobs and the tearing down of historical statues, that in a backlash they will turn around and vote to reelect Trump. But the protests, rioting and destruction will probably end soon and they will be forgotten by November. What Trump needs is for white cops to kill another black man in October in such a way so that nationwide riots will break out again.
Right now there is darkness on the horizon. The voters would probably choose anyone but Trump, even a comatose Biden.
NOTE: In the past I have said that I would not cast my vote for president. But because the Marxist-led BLM’s attempt to overthrow our government is succeeding with the acquiescence of … no, make that support of Joe ‘White Obama’ Biden and the Demoncrats, I will vote for Trump despite my personal opinion of him.
Without going into your charges against the Democrats, Trump is in very deep trouble.
1) The economy is bad and will likely get far worse by the election. The 2.2 Trillion of stimulus has been propping the economy up. Its all been spent. There will be problems extending much of it due to Trumps dumb decision to block transparency into it and GOP opposition to trickle up measures. Any stimulus extension helps the GOP so the Dems have all the negotiating leverage. Yet McConnell and Trump are acting like they hold the cards. When this all runs out, all hell will break loose.
2) Trumps messaging is awful. Its all geared towards people already in his camp, which represent about 35% of the electorate. And targeted at 52% of the electorate (LGBT, African Americans, Hispanics, college degreed individuals, non-evangelicals, many women). His outreach to those groups is of the circus variety (Kanye West) and isnt designed to actually convince significant persons in those groups to support him, but rather to message to his base that “see, Trump isnt racist”. Its not working.
3) Trumps Covid response was a disaster. And remains one. And large numbers of Republicans are blaming him for it. He blew off the response in January and February, then tried to use shutdowns in March to attack Democratic Governors in MI, WI, and PA by betting that people would be more afraid of being seen as “Beta male” than of Covid. People were even willing to forgive him when he tried to respond to Covid for a hot minute. Thats gone now. Along with Trumps large lead with older voters. And Trump and the GOP keep digging.
4) Trump doubled down on the anti BLM rhetoric too, which was a political (as well as a moral) gaffe. He then compounded it by tear gassing and flash banging Episcopal priests on their own property and celebrated the beating up of protesters by police. This is proving to be very bad for his standing with older and Country Club voters (he had those voters in 2016) His behavior outraged those opposed to him too, which has meant that the Bernie/Green opposition wont exist in the fall for exploitation by Trump like in 2016. Biden even told BLM that he had no intention of ‘defunding the police’ and no one on the left said anything in response to that rebuke.
5) Trump is banking on debates to bail him out. Biden is old and sounds like it too. But all Biden has to do is hold a few comebacks like “I wont tell people to drink Bleach”, “Trump got money from Saudi Arabia as hush money over the murder of a US resident”, “Trump and his billionaire cronies got Trillions and left yall to go bankrupt” in reserve if he feels he is losing the debate. Trump may be perceived to ‘win’ a debate but I doubt it will be decisive.
6) Trump is counting on a major gaffe by Biden or a manufactured one. But people arent listening anymore. And Trump cant be bothered to stay on message long enough to profit for any sustainable period of time from one.
7) Trump doesnt have 4 months to turn this around…he has 2 or less. If he cannot start to claw back to a 5 percent deficit by September, people will start abandoning him in droves. First, the appeal of him being a winner that makes the Americans his supporters dislike angry fails if people feel that he will lose, especially if that they feel he will be embarrassed in the election. If people within his administration feel that that they may have liability (especially criminal) they will start to try to make deals, exposing scandals by the truckload. The crisis in Texas, Arizona, and Florida with Covid will last at least that long. And theres no one to blame there but Republicans.
Trump is down now by 10 to 15 points. If it gets worse, theres a huge problem. If he cant eat half of it away by September, its very dire for him.
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Bidens election is not guaranteed. The new defectors are Republican adjacent and there may be some of a ‘coming home’ effect as Trump tries to paint the Dems as pinko commies. There may be a Caravan, a manufactured crisis, or some other event that might help Trump. But time is rapidly running out for him.
Right now a Trump win and a Biden 400 Electoral college vote/20% blowout are probably equally likely.
Tom,
I won’t refute your post point by point, I’ll just say that Trump is going to blow out win BECAUSE of the rioting/looting/arson/race war that Joe Biden’s party is enthusiastically supporting. People who aren’t Trump’s base but are still appalled by seeing cities burn, statues ripped down, seeing the term ‘master bedroom’ banned, etc., aren’t going to vote for more of this. They see the police being neutered, criminals freed to go wilding in the streets, they see decent Americans arrested when they dare to protect themselves from thugs and mobs and….they don’t like it.
Biden’s entire campaign is getting Americans to hate whitey, especially older, straight white males. That’s why he’s going to pick a token for V.P. The problem is going to be, erstwhile white Dem voters who aren’t self loathing aren’t going to be inspired by that message, and non racist non whites aren’t going to be inspired by it, either.
Trump has a record to run on, not the least of which is, no new wars, something Biden couldn’t do in his 8 years as V.P. It will be fun watching the hypocritical ladies of Code Pink explain why they have to vote for Biden the warmonger over Trump, who, despite the warnings, eschews war and hasn’t started one, done a regime change, or any of the other stuff the Peace Prize guy did.
Tom,
Let’s just look at the dichotomy between the Trump and Biden teams in their attitudes about our Independence Day. Trump is at Mt. Rushmore, having a very patriotic, very American celebration, at Mt. Rushmore. Then there will be a big July 4 celebration in D.C.
Compare and contrast with Team Biden, who tells us Mt. Rushmore is racist and evil. Leftists cried about the 4th of July celebration last year, I’m sure they will complain this year, too. Which message do you think is going to draw swing voters? Do you really think leftists have so demoralized this country that they’ve got a majority of Americans to actually HATE America?
Bill,
Going all in on Andrew Jackson on land clearly taken from American Indians for economic reasons is a really bad look.
Doubling down on ‘lets be irresponsible during a health emergency’ to do so is even more of a bad look.
Basically doubling down the wrong way on two issues where he us getting crushed in popular opinion right now, race and Covid.
I am not saying it won’t happen that way Howie, but four months is a LIFETIME in politics and people lie like big dogs to pollsters. You might remember the Scottish Referendum. Right up until election day ALL the polls said too close to call, less than 1% difference. In actuality the vote was over 10% against. There was a huge closet Trump vote last time. I have hopes there will be a huge closet Trump this time. That of course assumes the polls are honest and accurate, which is likely not the case.
Bob, unfortunately this is not the Scottish Referendum. Considering the relentless attacks on Trump and his self-destructiveness, one would have to believe the polls have got it right this time. Like Tom in Lazybrook said, Trump is in very deep trouble.
Howie,
Trump supporters are vilified, mocked, cancelled, physically attacked…..is it any wonder some of them tend to keep a low profile? Look at recent events. Being forced to say ‘black lives matter’ is the new version of being forced to throw the Nazi salute. If you won’t do it, bad things can happen to you. Look at all the businesses that were blackmailed into paying protection money over that. In this climate, don’t you think some folks are not going to give their true opinion to random phone pollsters?
I haven’t responded to a political poll in years. I certainly wouldn’t now. How do I know it’s a genuine poll, and not organized leftists trolling for new folks to victimize? I want to come home and find my home vandalized or burned? This is where we are at today. Support your president at the risk of actual physical violence.
I’m worried about vote by mail fraud, not that people don’t support Trump.
Bob, the Scottish referendum was not really a good analogy for the 2020 Presidential race. I know many who voted for the SNP, dislike Westminister, support Brussels, take great pride in Scottish culture and voted against independence. In short, its complicated.
To the others
In this race, Biden is consistently polling at or above 50% and is doing so in enough states to win the EC. Someone who is open to voting for Trump isnt going to tell a pollster “Im voting for Biden” but will likely say “Im undecided”. The surprise scenario becomes far more plausible if Biden were leading Trump 40 to 30, rather than 50 to 40. Also, look at the strong disapproval number for Trump, also around 50 percent. People who are voting for Biden arent likely going to say they hate Trump strongly. And have done so consistently.
A Trump surprise has the following elements. 1) A massive polling error far in excess of 2016 2) Trump within 5 points and Biden below 47 percent 3) Trump with a lead with double haters (people who say they dislike Biden and Trump – Biden has the support of two thirds of them) 4) momentum going into election day 5) String disapproval of Trump below 45 percent and 6) and leakage from Biden on his left. Right now none of those scenarios are showing up in the polls.
Trump has bet on older white voters being scared of something and hyper masculine signaling to white voters to carry him through. His disasterous Covid response is hurting that. Sure, he will win both groups, but he needs massive margins because his messaging guarantees massive margins for Biden from anyone else.
Polls can be skewed, but theyve been tested in elections during his Presidency and have not shown too much underpolling of GOP stregnth.
Again, Trump can win, but as an older white man from a very conservative home town, Im not seeing his white grievance messaging really getting through to anyone who hasnt been in the Trump camp all along. And it ensures that everyone who doesnt identify with his favored group will vote in large numbers and vote for Biden. Its a very dangerous political strategy…if it works he might have a chance. If it doesnt it sets himself up for a massive loss margin. Trump appears to be taking bigger and bigger risks.
Oh, and Happy Independence Day, y’all! We live in the greatest country in the world. It’s only fitting that we take a day to be thankful for living here, and to pledge to keep it the greatest country in the world. We owe it to those who have come before us to do just that.
“Freedom is never more than one generation from extinction.”
~Ronald Reagan
I’m not going to bother to try to refute the blather above. Howie’s and Tom’s disdain and lack of respect for Donald Trump is well documented in the annals of Bigjolly.
I would note, however that while Biden’s numbers do appear to be above 50% right now, that’s because he’s been listening to his advisors and huddling in his basement for the last 3 months. That will only take him so far. And, the time has now passed when the Democrats could replace him with somebody that’s not senile. At some point he will have to start talking and making appearances. And the media will only be able to cover for him to a certain point.
Cheer up Howie, you may actually be able to vote for a winner this time!
Fa
Trump and the GOP ignoring Covid gives Biden the ability to simultaneously attack Trump on it and provides political cover for him to lay low.
The GOPs Covid response has not only been a medical and economic failure, but also a tactical one. And they keep digging. The longer they concede Covid response to the Dems, the longer Biden can keep this up.
Basically, the GOP is betting everything on some major gaffe by Biden in the debates or some scandal with real and sustained traction (with people who have already leaning Bidens way) involving his VP pick. Or some black swan event. It could happen, but guys…its starting to look like youll need to pull an inside straight on fifth street.
Fat, my friend, you would say if Trump shot a pregnant nun at high noon on Main Street that she committed suicide.
You’re right though … I have no respect for Trump. However, I do support him as president.
Howie,
If Donald Trump simply held a gun, in close proximity to a woman wearing a rosary, in his own living room at 6:30, the Media would have him gunning down the entire Convent. I have no illusions concerning Trumps shortcomings. He’s an unprincipled slot who runs off at the mouth.
He’s also been a fair to middlin’ President. And, the sad news is, that if guys like you and Tom keep running him down you might just get to see what a really bad President looks like. Because Joe Biden will make Barack Obama look like Bill Clinton.