The Coronavirus is not only a deadly crisis for the world, but it could also be a deadly crisis for Trump’s presidency. The virus is playing havoc with the economy and if the nation is in a recession in October, President Trump is very likely to be defeated by his Democratic opponent, even if that opponent is the dogcatcher from Outhouse, Texas. And Joe Biden, the presumptive Democratic nominee, is not a dogcatcher.
The economy is Trump’s strongpoint and if it’s kaput, so is Trump’s presidency. If the economy is strong in October, Trump stands a fairly good chance of being reelected in November. If not, he’s history.
But even if the economy recovers, Biden won’t be Sleepy Joe, as Trump likes to call him.
I watched Sunday’s debate between Biden and Bernie Sanders. Who was the winner? Biden’s supporters will say he won, while those who support Sanders will say he won.
One thing is for sure, Biden is not sleepy, nor is he senile as one of my friends keeps calling him. And Sanders has no chance of being the Democratic nominee.
Biden will select a woman as his vice president. Kamala Harris, who once blasted him for his civil rights record as a Senator, is now gushing all over Biden, a crass effort to secure that vice president spot. But Biden does not need Harris because he’s got the California and black vote locked up without her. My bet is that it will be former candidate Amy Klobuchar.
Trump’s problem is that his base is made up of only 35 percent of eligible voters. A Biden-Klobuchar ticket will be a formidable one even if the economy is strong.
Up to now, Joe ‘White Obama’ Biden has been directing his campaign almost exclusively at the black community. That’s why he won big in South Carolina and Mississippi. While Blacks make up only 13 percent of the population and even though they are much better off under Trump than they were under Obama, 95 percent or better will vote for Biden, and that is a significant voting-block. There are about 8 million Jews in the US, and 80 Percent of them will vote for a Democratic candidate, even if he is the dogcatcher in Outhouse, Texas. That’s another significant voting-block. And a Biden-Klobuchar ticket will attract a lot of suburban women.
Trump did not help his cause by downplaying the coronavirus as nothing more than a bad cold and openly dismissing or criticizing the warnings by key infectious disease experts early on during the crisis. That ‘bad cold’ has put his presidency on life support and Biden could pull the plug on November 3.
Trump’s best hope is that by July the coronavirus crisis will be over and done with. The grave economic damage the virus has done will have cost countless Americans their jobs, including many in Trump’s base. If the country is still in a recession by October, Trump is toast. On the other hand, if the economy is robust again by October and everyone is employed again, Trump has a fairly good chance of defeating Biden.
Trey Rusk says
Why didn’t you touch on any other issues such as immigration? Immigration reform is what initially put Trump in office. I will never forget Trump making his announcement to run on the immigration platform. People were shocked because it wasn’t politically correct. I believe when the Pandemic is over you will see the U.S. gain a lot of Chinese manufacturing and that will benefit the U.S. and President Trump.
Howie Katz says
Trey, immigration is the last thing people are worried about now. When the pandemic is over, it will take the economy some time to recover and that may be too late for Trump. But as a die-hard member of his base, you cannot see that, or you do not want to see it.
As for those Chinese manufacturing jobs, they won’t return to the US until the cost of Chinese-made products, plus the cost of shipping them to the US, equals what it costs to make them here.
Bill Daniels says
I disagree. You’re scaremongering and telling people there won’t be enough hospital beds, while at the same time telling us that not only is no one going to be deported, but all the illegals get treated for free. “Gee, sorry, good American,, the hospital is full of illegals, you’ll just have to go home and die.” No. That’s not going to be a popular idea.
Look at the idiots hoarding TP……when it comes down to it, people put their own interests first, meaning, they are going to want to see medical resources go to Americans, not i illegals.
Fat Albert says
As Mark Twain once said (roughly) “Your reports of Trump’s [political] death are greatly exaggerated.
While the CoVid19 virus is certainly putting a strain on the economy and may put us into a recession (unlikely, but possible) most people are bright enough to recognize where the problem has come from, i.e. China.
Please note that Trump has consistently stood up to China, while Biden has been accepting hand outs from them for years via his son Hunter.
And, while Biden may not be technically senile, her is still the same groping, creepy, old man. He’s also embracing increasingly far left positions in order to attract the Bernie Bros. That may work up to the convention, but if he pivots to the center in the general election, he’s gonna lose all those Bernie Bro votes. And, all that assumes that he can sufficiently distance himself from the walking open sore that is his son, Hunter.
Yes the economy matters, but so do other things.
Bob Walsh says
Yes, it could. It could also actually kill Joe Biden, Bernie Sanders (or Donald Trump). Joe Biden will have an advantage in that he now can sort-of justify cutting way back on his campaign appearance schedule, which will greatly reduce the chance of him simply dropping dead or putting his foot in his mouth so firmly he chokes himself out. My guess, for what my guess may be worth to anybody, is that as long as we start pulling out by about August and the market shows signs of a significant rebound, it will not hurt Trump too badly. If we end up with a huge body count and the market stays in the toilet, people may be willing to buy the Socialist-Democrat idiocy. You must remember that Trump started with restricted movement from China very early on, to the screams of RACIST and XENOPHOBE from the left, including both Biden and Sanders. He put restrictions on movement from Europe in very good time. His messaging was mediocre early on, but his actions were solid.
Also, with Joe now PROMISING that he will absolutely pick a woman to run as his VP (regardless of qualification) and his promised appointment of Robert Francis O’Rourke as his gun control guy (Hell Yes we are coming for your AR-15s and AK-47s) a WHOLE LOT of people who are not liberal idiots will be looking askance at the guy who claims to be the middle-road candidate.
Run this up the flagpole again in late September and see what the response is. It may look very stale by then. (I hope.)
Let’s be clear, Trump is cooked to a turn and the question is; how many GOPer Senators will be eaten, digested and flushed this fall. Biden shut Bernie down with the announcement that he will choose a woman VP and although Bernie earned his place in history, he is yesterday’s news. And let’s not be coy, shall we? Biden will bring out black vote, Kamala will get Obamaesque numbers. Amy will make a fine AG, no? Or would you prefer the vice versa? Maybe Stacey? One more thing; make no mistake, Beto is the white Obama. His “He’ll Yes” was a game changer. The game is Texas Hold em and Beto holds the Texas card, just like he held the Harris county card in ’18. Never bet against a guy named Beto.
Bill Daniels says
Beto was popular in Texas when he was this nebulous, ”I’ve visited all 254 counties and I’m listening to you’ candidate. Now that he’s been outed as the “I’mma kick in your door and take your guns” guy, he will never win an election statewide in Texas again, and Joe Biden telling us in advance that Beto will be his gun confiscation czar? What planet do you live on? That plays well in NY and CA, not so much here in Texas or most of the rest of flyover country. Liberals own guns, too, and don’t want shock troops going door to door to take their guns.
Fat Albert says
I say this with great concern. You’re delusional. You should see a doctor. You’re making Joe Biden should like a Rhodes Scholar!
When you think about it, guns are much more dangerous than coronavirus although I must agree with Howie, this most recent failure of leadership might bring down Trump. In the wake of Sandy Hook, a conservative friend made the case for his right to own an AR. I attempted to rebut by asking what about the right of those kids to live. He guffawed and asked me to name a country where a gun ban worked. Australia, I said. And so it went until we decided to drop the conversation. And yes, liberals own guns. I have several and have hunted all my life, but I don’t have an AR and don’t see a need to get one. They are people killers and have no use other than as a substitute for little peckers. Thank God Beto brought this issue forward with dignity and courage after the El Paso mass murder.
Simple Simon says
I would not get my nickers in a dither over what any politician says about taking up the guns unless they repeal the 2nd Amendment. That would be a pretty tall order and the fact that there are only 16 amendments to the original 10 amendments is a testimony as to the difficulty involved with the amendment process. Frankly neither political party has the votes to do it; it comes down to math.
There is also the practical standpoint. We are awash in guns. There are literally millions of assault weapons out there and it is hard to see how the our government today could round them up even if they had the will to do so.
Local and State laws are another thing. We have had enforceable laws banning the carriage of weapons in certain circumstances and these laws have stood up to constitutional challenges and remained in force. Texas has 30.06 and 30.07 and the proponents of unfettered open carry have not been able to overturn these laws in the courts or at the ballot box. It is not realistic to see that changing. I believe most Texans and Gun Owners are happy with the status quo.
I do believe one phrase the ardent gun folks have used for decades and that is “Guns don’t kill people, people do”. I believe this is pretty good common sense and we need to revisit what is done to if not keep the guns out of the hands of criminals and the mentally unbalanced, then to mitigate the problem as best as we can.
Criminals don’t care about the law; they will always obtain guns if they want them via the black markets. It seems to me that tougher sentences for felonies committed with guns and with the certainty of them serving the full sentence would be in order.
The mentally unbalanced and just plain old no common sense immature dumb asses are another story. I would not even pretend to have the answer on this one, but I have faith in good people to find a solution if we put aside our knee jerk reactions and look for the best possible solution.
Simple Simon says
Bad 2Q financial results almost always spell doom for the sitting President or the candidate from the party holding the White House during the 2Q even if there is a recovery in the 3Q. Ask Bush-43 or John McCain. The only President since 1920 to buck this trend is Harry Truman. Trump is no Harry Truman.
It is fanciful to think there will be a recovery by 3Q or even by 2Q 2021.
1. We were in an unprecedented Bull Marker that began shortly after the banking collapse in 2007-2008. Historically Bull Markets last for about 6 years before there is a correction. We were living on borrowed time.
2. The 2017 Tax Reform was used mostly by corporations for stock buybacks and not capital purchases. Stock buybacks to raise the price of stocks, which is a good thing for company executives and guys like me who are investors. At least as long as you don’t get too starry eyed and sell out before the inevitable happens. There was a little meat on the bone in the Tax Reform for the middle class, but this was used up in spending instead of saving.
3. The PMI (Purchasing Manager’s Index) was flagging a slowdown in the economy almost a year ago. Companies were already tightening their belts.
4. The inversion of the Yield Curve in October of 2019 was the first alarm of what was about to happen. Bond Yields are a leading indicator whereas Stock Prices are lagging indicators. The decreasing Yields clearly indicate investor thoughts about the future.
5. Extreme Market Volatility always precedes a market correction. Remember March of 2000? We had three big “Dead Cat Bounces” before everyone finally figured out the valuations were smoke and mirrors.
6. The virus problem will not be over by April as Trump once touted. A line parroted by his surrogate spokesmen at Fox and Rush Limbaugh. It was not a hoax nor is any reasonable person buying that the relatively unorganized Democrats are capable of accomplishing such a feat when they cannot run a simple caucus. Trump has suffered a permanent loss of credibility with the voters who were not exactly in love with him.
7. The Oil Companies were in a downward trend before the virus problems. The ongoing snit between the Russians and the Saudis accelerated the trend and try to remember what things were like in 1982. We are headed to the same place. Oil Company collapse always signal the end of a bull market.
8. Corporate Debt is astronomical. Google “Corporate Debt versus GDP” and you will see some pretty interesting charts. We are drowning is debt. After the market collapse I started looking for stocks to buy. Specifically stocks with low PE (PE <=12) ratios and relatively high dividends as Bonds do not look so good right now. A closer look at the financials revealed the probable cause for the low PE ratios. These guys and most are market stalwarts had Debt to Earnings ratios of 60% or better. These guys will not be able to sustain their dividend yields and do any significant capital spending. They will have to cut costs and layoff people. It has already begun.
9. The low interest rates right now are great for borrowers, but not so much for fixed income investors. Worse, most of the state and local government pension programs were already in trouble. The cities and states were having to makeup the shortfalls since ALL of the pension programs are not fully funded. These pension programs rely heavily on government securities to fund their payments. Think bankruptcy (Detroit) and higher state and local taxes to cover these pension programs.
I could go on. We will recover and things will get better, but a strong cup of reality is in order. Trump engages in fanciful thinking too often and when he can't deliver on his promises the voters will turn him out along with anyone who stands too close to him.
We could have had a V8 and Jeb Bush.