Big Jolly Politics

politics in Harris County and Texas

Message discipline with redistricting

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In the 2000 census redistricting, a Republican-leaning map – but not the leadership’s favored plan – was brought to the House floor. A coordinated effort moved to kill it. One legislator warned colleagues that the recorded vote would be used in the lawsuits that would follow passage of the favored map. The warning worked: the bill’s author withdrew the map.

We’ve lost that kind of message discipline, and it will come back to haunt us once the current maps pass.

Impermissible Redistricting and Legal Standards

States have wide latitude to draw district boundaries, but that latitude is not unlimited. Federal law and the Constitution place guardrails on why and how lines can be drawn.

One impermissible reason – and the one relevant here – is retaliation or punishment. That means drawing lines specifically to penalize voters, communities, or candidates for their political expression. This isn’t just bad politics; it can be unconstitutional under the First Amendment.

In Vieth v. Jubelirer, 541 U.S. 267 (2004), Justice Kennedy suggested that redistricting could be analyzed under a First Amendment retaliation theory. That idea gained traction in Shapiro v. McManus, 584 Fed. Appx. 140, where Justice Scalia, writing for the majority, allowed a First Amendment challenge to redistricting to proceed.

The test is straightforward: if there’s a legitimate fact question about an impermissible reason for redistricting, the case won’t be thrown out early on summary judgment. Instead, it moves forward to a full trial on the merits to resolve that question.

That matters because we’re only seven months from the primaries. A surviving lawsuit means trial prep, trial, and an appeal before new maps can be used. Even if those maps eventually pass legal muster, the clock may run out for 2026.

Poor message discipline hands opponents a fact question

The easiest way to hand your opponents that factual dispute? Have a legislator brag, on the record or online, about drawing lines to punish political opponents. That’s a trial lawyer’s dream exhibit. The best evidence they can present is a legislator openly suggesting that maps are being drawn to punish political opponents or reward allies.

Representative Brian Harrison’s recent social media post does exactly that. In a moment of “mic drop” bravado, he stated that each week Democrats remain absent, Republicans will redraw another Democratic seat into a Republican one. That’s not just political theater — it’s a written admission that can be used to argue an impermissible purpose.

Once entered into evidence, a post like this gives opponents a clean path to survive summary judgment, dragging litigation on long enough to jeopardize the use of any new maps in 2026

https://www.facebook.com/photo?fbid=1148806347282830&set=a.218670246963116ook

The quorum break may have set the stage, but careless messaging provides the legal ammunition to keep the case alive.  This means that even when the maps pass – and they eventually will – the odds of their use in 2026 is small and decreasing by the day.  Not because of the quorum break, but because of a message discipline own goal.

Containing the damage and 2030 considerations

While the damage from poor messaging is contained in a worst case scenario of the maps don’t get used until 2028 that doesn’t necessarily follow for the 2030 redistricting. Unlike two decades ago, you don’t need specialized software to create districts that pass threshold scrutiny.  While preparing for this article, I created the following maps using ChatGPT using only my cell phone – all while sitting in a Kroger parking lot while Rochelle was grocery shopping.

The goal was to create an Asian opportunity district.  First the Asian opportunity census block groups need to be identified.

This was straightforward, with the above map being the core, though the net could be cast as wide or narrow as desired.  The map below is the block groups that are suitable for Asian Opportunity district in Harris and the immediately contiguous counties.

From there, it’s simply a matter of downloading precinct maps, and CVAP numbers with a rule to make the district as Asian as possible.  The below map is the end result.

Does it perfectly comply with legal standards? Not quite, but with the CSV data tables used to create it, manual corrections are simple: just fill in the gaps.

All of this was done on my cell phone, in the Kroger parking lot, while Rochelle shopped. It’s literally that simple.

Why is this important?

In IN THE SUPREME COURT OF PENNSYLVANIAMIDDLE DISTRICT the Court generated their own remedial maps stating:

Pursuant  to  the  January  22  Order, certain  parties,  the intervenors,  and  several amici  submitted  to  the  Court  proposed remedial  districting  plans  for  the  Court’s  consideration,   all   of   which   were   carefully   reviewed   by   the   Court.7      Proceeding expeditiously,  the  Court  prepared  a  constitutionally  sound  plan  in  accordance  with  our  announced criteria.  After  full  deliberation  and  consideration,  the  Court  hereby adopts this  remedial  plan (“Remedial  Plan”)8,  as  specifically  described  below,  which  shall  be  implemented  forthwith  in  preparation for the  May  15,  2018  primary  election.

This precedent makes outside map submissions plausible in Texas as well, especially if challenges are filed in federal court in Austin. Anyone with standing to file an amicus brief could submit maps for legal consideration  – and with modern tools, creating a viable map is now a low hurdle to clear.

In redistricting, the lines you draw aren’t the only thing that matters – the record you create while drawing them is just as important. Careless words today can be the reason you lose the maps tomorrow. If we don’t learn that now, the consequences in 2030 could be catastrophic.

 

In case anyone is interested, here’s the demographics and projected leaning of the created district:

Asian: 22.96%

Black: 27.30%

Hispanic: 21.71%

White (alone): 26.01%

Estimated Partisan Voting Index D+11.

Now, compare to current CD 7

White (non-Hispanic): ~ 27%

Black (non-Hispanic): ~ 19.8%

Asian (non-Hispanic): ~ 18.9%

Hispanic (various categories): 22%

Cook Partisan Voting Index (PVI): D+12 (includes Biden 2024 results)

The created district survives review given the similarities to the current CD 7.

89th Texas Legislature: Water Resources

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Water scarcity is the most important issue the Texas Legislature will face this session. It’s not the most urgent issue—yet. But if left unaddressed, it will become an existential crisis for the state. Growth, drought conditions, and poor long-term planning are converging into a perfect storm that threatens agriculture, industry, and municipal supply.  Look at how the want of effective water management has exacerbated the Los Angelas fires to see a current example of the severe consequences of a poorly conceived water management plan.

Commissioner Miller is right—water scarcity is a growing problem that will only get worse. The state doesn’t have to act now, but the time is coming when the state must act.  Acting now gives time for careful contemplation and post action adjustments as necessary before the situation becomes an urgent crisis.

The Legislature must take bold action this session to develop a comprehensive statewide water strategy that incorporates modern solutions, removes outdated bureaucratic obstacles, and ensures a reliable, sustainable water supply for future generations.

The Big Picture: Where Will Texas Get Its Water?

Texas cannot continue relying on traditional surface water and groundwater sources. The two biggest realistic sources of additional potable water are sewage reuse (advanced water recycling), and desalination.

These technologies already exist and are improving in efficiency and cost-effectiveness. If Texas is serious about securing its water future, the state must:

Accelerate permitting and infrastructure investment for both sewage reuse and desalination.

Streamline regulatory approvals so that projects can be implemented before crisis conditions set in.

Develop incentives for private investment in alternative water sourcing.

The Legislature should also consider incorporating atmospheric water generation (AWG) technology into localized emergency water resilience plans.

The Role of Atmospheric Water Generation (AWG)

One of the biggest challenges in addressing Texas’ water crisis is that large-scale solutions like sewage reuse and desalination face significant political and logistical resistance. AWG won’t solve the problem, but it serves as a bridge strategy—helping communities prepare for shortages while building public awareness and acceptance of alternative water sources.  Atmospheric water generation (AWG) can serve as an important supplementary tool—especially for public awareness and emergency preparedness.

AWG is not a large-scale solution, but it has a proven history of use in Houston following natural disasters. Expanding its implementation in parks, public spaces, emergency shelters, and emergency response command nodes could provide several secondary benefits, including:

Raising public awareness of water scarcity – Seeing AWGs in operation educates the public on water resource limitations and helps build support for broader conservation efforts.

Providing emergency water access – AWGs can help supply clean water in parks, shelters, and other public spaces where infrastructure is lacking or has been disrupted.

Supporting the homeless population – Access to drinking water is often an issue for Houston’s homeless residents. AWGs could provide clean water without the need for traditional infrastructure.  This would also be an area where bipartisan support could be found and makes for easy political points for Republicans.

Provide water access in parks without water fountains – Many public parks lack adequate drinking water access, and AWGs could provide an alternative.  This will increase public awareness and acceptance of alternative water sources.

The state should consider pilot programs to deploy AWGs in targeted locations, particularly in urban areas prone to infrastructure failures and rural regions where well-water access is unreliable. While AWGs won’t solve Texas’ water crisis, they can serve as a stopgap measure that creates awareness and generates bipartisan goodwill while broader solutions are developed.

The Problem with Groundwater Districts

Groundwater conservation districts were a reasonable intermediate solution for managing local aquifers, but they have outlived their usefulness.

Instead of ensuring sustainable water use, many have become a barrier to efficient water allocation. Groundwater districts:
Create regulatory inefficiencies that prevent water from moving where it’s most needed.
Operate with inconsistent policies, leading to regional inequities in water access.
Discourage investment in new water projects due to unpredictable permitting and overlapping jurisdictional disputes.

Texas must move beyond groundwater districts and shift toward a cohesive statewide strategy that balances regional needs without stifling economic development.

A Statewide Plan Is Needed—Now

The Texas economy and population are growing too fast for a patchwork, reactionary approach to water. The Legislature needs to develop a statewide plan that:

Sets clear, long-term water conservation and allocation goals,
Invests in major infrastructure projects (sewage reuse, desalination, AWG in critical areas),
Removes outdated regulatory obstacles like groundwater district overreach, and
Incentivizes private-sector innovation in water sourcing and efficiency

If Texas does not create a comprehensive plan now, we will be left scrambling with fewer options and higher costs.

Houston’s West Texas Water Proposal: A Short-Term Fix, Not a Long-Term Solution

Houston is working on a plan to supply water to West Texas—a region that is already feeling the effects of prolonged drought and groundwater depletion.

While this may be a viable short-term solution if Houston’s water infrastructure is repaired, it is not sustainable long-term unless Houston’s water supply is expanded through additional potable water sources. Otherwise, we are simply robbing Peter to pay Paul, shifting water shortages from one part of the state to another.

Houston’s potential deal highlights a larger issue: Texas needs more water, not just better redistribution of existing supplies. Without new water sources, any attempt to move water around the state will eventually collapse under growing demand.

The Bottom Line: Texas Must Act Now

Texas cannot afford to wait until the next water crisis forces reactionary measures. The Legislature must stop kicking the can down the road and take proactive steps to secure Texas’ water future.

This means:

Prioritizing investment in sewage reuse and desalination
Eliminating regulatory barriers to water project development
Moving beyond outdated groundwater district regulations
Developing a long-term, statewide water management plan

Water is already Texas’ most pressing long-term issue. The only question is whether we will act while we still have options—or wait until a crisis forces our hand. We have the opportunity to act in a thoughtful, proactive, meaningful way and adjust as we go if we act now. The alternative is a reactionary, crisis-driven response—one that will come too late and at a much higher cost.

89th Texas Legislative Session: School Choice

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School choice has become one of the most contentious issues within the Texas Republican Party. The debate has already shaped primary battles, and something is almost certain to pass this session. The question isn’t if school choice will become law, but rather how it will be structured—and whether the final product will be a true improvement or a policy that causes unintended harm.

Expanding school choice must come with careful consideration of its impact on students, particularly those in special education, as well as a framework for accountability for both existing school districts and the new recipients of taxpayer funds.

The ISDs Can’t Pass Off Responsibilities

Public school districts have legal obligations under federal and state law that school choice funding recipients will not automatically inherit. One of the biggest concerns is Child Find, the federal requirement under the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act (IDEA) that mandates school districts identify, locate, and evaluate children who may need special education services.

This is one of the reasons (pretexts?) that the TEA used to justify the HISD takeover. Given TEA’s current ideological leanings, it could just as easily turn these same bureaucratic levers against school choice, using federal mandates as a pretext to hamstring implementation or undermine the program after passage. The same mechanisms used to justify state intervention in public schools can be weaponized to slow-roll funding approvals, delay regulatory compliance, or create administrative roadblocks for private institutions participating in school choice.

If a student leaves a public school for a private institution through school choice, who ensures the student gets evaluated and receives services? This can’t be an issue where public ISDs keep the burden, but private schools or other alternative institutions reap the benefits.

Moreover, these obligations require funding, and shifting students away from public schools while maintaining federal mandates creates a financial imbalance. If ISDs are required to perform evaluations and offer services, they must be provided adequate, protected funding to do so—otherwise, this becomes yet another unfunded mandate that weakens the public school system without a clear plan for students who need specialized interventions.

Preserving Special Education Funding: The ‘Money Follows the Child’ Fallacy

One of the biggest risks with school choice is the potential defunding of critical special education programs. Public school districts rely on state and federal funding to provide speech therapy, occupational therapy, behavioral supports, and other necessary services for students with disabilities.

A common school choice argument is that “money follows the child”—but this is not an adequate solution for special education. Special education programs rely on economies of scale—they require a specialized workforce, trained administrators, and support systems that cannot be efficiently duplicated at the same cost in smaller settings.  Also, resource intense children, like Kenshin, require both extra financial obligations and have parents who are more willing to take whatever steps are needed to ensure that services are provided adequately.

The crucible of their care has created seasoned, tenacious parents who will act as necessary to protect their children. The legislature does not understand the impact this small but determined segment of the population can have on legislation through legal means after the fact, and their willingness to do so regardless of consequences.

Legislators risk passing a policy that seems viable on paper but collapses under the weight of lawsuits and regulatory challenges from disability advocates. The courts have historically sided with these parents, meaning a poorly structured school choice bill could face legal setbacks before it even takes effect. If school choice funding mechanisms are not airtight, litigation could lead to prolonged uncertainty and uneven implementation across the state.

For example, a student receiving special education services at a large public school benefits from shared resources and staff that allow for comprehensive programming. If that same student leaves for a private institution with a school choice voucher, the funding that follows them may not be enough to replicate those services at the same level. This undermines the ability of both systems to provide high-quality education for students with disabilities.  The flip side is also present, a paraprofessional involved in the care of the more resource intensive special education students has a collateral beneficial effect on the entire classroom.  Remove the child and the paraprofessional follows with the collateral detriment to the classroom.

This is one of the key issues that turns philosophical support into practical opposition within the disability community. Many parents and advocates support the idea of school choice in theory, but oppose its real-world application when they see how it could weaken access to specialized programs and protections. Special education requires institutional knowledge, regulatory compliance, and long-term investment—something that cannot be piecemealed out through individual student funding decisions without creating major service gaps.

County Boards of Education: A Potential Solution

One proposal worth exploring is the creation of County Boards of Education to assist with special education funding and oversight, without granting them the authority to impose taxes.  Right now only Harris County has a Board of Education, and it’s popular for conservatives to take gratuitous pot shots at the BOE.

However, the Board provides valuable assistance to the districts in the county through funding and operates at a net profit.  Expanding the boards to every county is a possible solution to help special education issues if it can be done in a manner that is limited in scope and does not involve taxation authority.

These boards could serve as a resource to help manage:

  • Special education funding distribution, ensuring that their permissive business activities profit is dedicated to supporting special education.
  • Oversight for Child Find and other federal requirements, preventing gaps in services when students transfer between school types.
  • Support services for families navigating the education system, especially for those with children in special education programs.

This type of structure would allow for better coordination between public and private education options while maintaining local control and avoiding the creation of new taxing authorities.

Ideological purity often leads to objections regarding the boards.  However, if they were established in a manner that did not allow for taxing power then the ideological objection is significantly lowered.

Accountability for Both Public and Private Schools

School choice cannot be a one-sided accountability measure where only public schools remain subject to performance metrics and financial oversight. If taxpayer dollars are flowing to private institutions, microschools, or homeschooling collectives, those recipients must also meet reasonable standards of accountability.

  • Academic Performance – How will the state ensure that students receiving school choice funding are making adequate progress?
  • Financial Transparency – Public schools must disclose spending; should private institutions receiving state funds have similar obligations?
  • Protections Against Fraud – Without oversight, school choice programs could become a breeding ground for abuse, similar to pandemic relief fraud cases.

A successful school choice policy must include mechanisms for oversight without stifling innovation. The goal should be to expand options for students while ensuring taxpayer dollars are used effectively and do not create an education free-for-all with no real quality control.

This HISD Board of Managers is a good example of what happens without appropriate oversight.  Not only is there significant, deeply held, community opposition, but they are truly an unaccountable group.  Any school choice funding program must have protections to ensure that the school choice fund recipients do not effectively end up like the HISD Board of Managers.

Conclusion: The Path Forward

Something will pass this session. The key question is whether the final policy is structured responsibly.

Conservatives must ensure:
School choice expands without harming special education funding.
ISDs are not left with unfunded federal mandates while private schools take only easier-to-educate students.
Accountability applies across the board, not just to public schools.

Done correctly, school choice can be a transformative policy that empowers parents while maintaining critical educational safeguards. Done irresponsibly, it risks creating funding gaps and allowing taxpayer dollars to flow with no oversight.

The Legislature must strike the right balance. Will they?

Looking at the Municipal Races – District E

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Next in the series of looking at the municipal races is District E.  This district is solidly republican and gerrymandered to concentrate republican votes.  This district was chosen for the second in the series because it’s ideologically and geographically different from J leading to ease in contrasting messaging differences.  Remember, the goal of this series is to look at messaging for next year, not the candidates in this race.  However, it is important to elect the more conservative candidate in E to represent conservative values on City Counsel.

Full disclosure: I donated to Fred’s campaign.  Martina’s contributions to Act Blue and Kingwood Area Democrats are concerning; especially with the district being so important to having a conservative voice on City Council.  This article tries very hard to be as neutral as possible towards both candidates.

Big Picture

Fred Flickinger and Martina Lemond Dixon are vying for the open city council position.  From a fundraising point of view they are essentially performing the same, with a 4 donor difference.  Two differences stand out, Martina has approximately 40% of her funds raised from PACs or businesses (38.88%) and Fred has loaned his campaign $103,000.

 

Candidate Donors Received Spent Cash on Hand Loans PACs PAC$ Business Business$
Fred Flickinger 46 13128 18304 101186 103000 0 0 0 0
Martina Lemond Dixon 42 18064 4276 13817 0 4 5500 3 1500

 

Given the nature of the district, it was surprising that those I talked with didn’t mention election integrity as an issue.  Otherwise this solidly republican district had areas of concern that would be expected. – crime, flooding, infrastructure, and quockerwodgery (someone pulling the strings behind the scenes.)

Quockerwodgery

A quockerwodger is a puppet that has one string causing the puppet’s arms and legs to flail.  It’s not hard to see how this can describe a politician – someone else is pulling the strings controlling the politician.  Just a hunch, but maybe election integrity wasn’t mentioned as a concern because it fell under this broad topic (which was vocalized normally.)

Whether it’s PACs and outside money, or it’s a perceived undue influence by individuals in power, this topic has been discussed endlessly the past 2-3 years.  From a messaging standpoint there’s not much else to say other than remember what plays well in E can be used as a proxy for republican values in general.  Try to keep the bomb throwing to a minimum.

Humble ISD

I was asked to write about the issues with Humble ISD school board when the bylaws were changed to allow Martina to retain her position as president.  Later, I was asked to write about the subsequent elections.  I didn’t because I didn’t want it to look like a backdoor attack on Martina for this race, especially considering my donation to Fred’s campaign.  This topic is both salient and intense to a portion of the electorate.  However, this is a dangerous path to travel from a messaging standpoint.  The 2021 school board elections show that the core, underlying messaging worked.  Kendall and Bridget were able to win seats from incumbents.  Let the furor of the TEA takeover of HISD dominate the talking points in the media.  We need to stick with what worked and not travel down the diversion that is Humble ISD.  Our core message works.  Stick with it.

Crime

Crime is a problem.  Sure, the mayor tries to downplay the crime issue, but are people really buying into his arguments?  Not in E, and that makes E a great testing ground to try new messaging on crime since it is a matter of increasing salience and intensity of the issue.  Trying new messaging here in the primary is a great chance to evaluate how the message will resonate in the general election.  Maybe personalizing the abstract message would bear more fruit.  Victim stories pared with practical solutions would both humanize the issue and make republicans sound like problem solvers.

Flooding and Infrastructure

Both candidates campaign web pages tie flooding and infrastructure together.  The blurbs the candidates had for the issue were very similar.  Martina’s had a a hurricane spin, and Fred’s noted drainage; but in general the messaging was we have to improve infrastructure for the next flood.  With both candidates’ messaging saying essentially the same thing that’s what the electorate cares about. Seems like the messaging here is already in place and working so no need to change course.

Final Thoughts

This district is a good area to test messages since the district is dark red.  However, the dark red aspect creates the danger of bomb throwing that will be tagged as the republican view by those who oppose us.  Crime is an area where the district could be used as a testing ground to see what effect humanizing crime does without the potential for the issue becoming less important.  Otherwise, the district location and makeup don’t provide any particular areas for refining messaging.

Looking at the Municipal Races – District J

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Happy Labor Day!  It’s the unofficial start of campaigning for the Municipal races.  All politics is local, and the focus on each race will influence the discussion for next year.  To that end, looking at the individual district races helps to identify what issues are in the district to help focus messaging for next year.  Since I live in district J that’s the race covered first.  This race is between the incumbent Edward Pollard and Ivan Sanchez.  Remember, the purpose of the analysis isn’t to look at the merits of the candidates, but rather to look at the issues for more targeted messaging next cycle.

Big Picture

The southwest side of Houston has experienced a significant uptick in identity politics over the past year or so.   Given the extent Councilman Pollard has be a leader in promoting novel ideas to improve all aspects of the district, this race appears to be a continuation of the identity politics.  In addition to the overall city wide themes (crime, etc) and the identity politics element in play, the Sharpstown Mall has become a topic of interest in the election.

Identity Politics

Local Hispanic organizations have been pounding the identity politics drum last year and this year, and southwest Houston and District J is ground zero for the identity politics activities.  The lawsuit to try and remove the at large positions and convert them into new districts is based on an alleged underrepresentation of Hispanics on City Council.  This is a borderline frivolous lawsuit.  District J is a Hispanic plurality district.

Last cycle saw Sandra Rodriguez mount a significant campaign.  It’s not that the district was gerrymandered to prevent a Hispanic from wining.  If anything it’s the opposite – a gerrymandered district to elect a Hispanic.  However, voter turnout in J is traditionally low. The issue isn’t demographics.

Outside of the litigation, two education based actions were identity politics driven. Houston in Action (who I reached out to but did not respond) raised concerns that the HISD redistricting did not create a Hispanic district in southwest Houston.  The concern has some merit.  Houston in Action is correct to the extent that a district could be made that would be Hispanic majority.

District VI is a spatially and ethnically diverse district where the northern portion of the district has almost nothing in common with the southern portion of the district.  The borders of VI could be changed some to reflect the split nature of the district.  However, making a Hispanic district would only be possible with a radical reorganization of several district boundaries.

The other push was made with the TEA takeover of HISD.  Complaints were raised about the lack of Hispanic applicants for the Board of Managers.  So much so, that the TEA extended the application period to allow for more applications to be received.

In the end, the actions of pure identity politics noted miss one significant fact.  The opportunity for Hispanic involvement is present, but it’s not being acted upon.  Even accepting that the Hispanic vote is a monolith – which is not nearly as true as in the past – the opportunity is not being taken by the Hispanic community in southwest Houston.

Sharpstown Mall

Ivan Sanchez is trying to make an issue of revitalizing the Sharpstown mall.  While in theory this is good, it shows a poor understanding of the realities of the situation.  To effect significant change to the mall will take changing the deed restrictions.  Good luck with that.  Efforts have been periodically made for as long as I’ve lived in Houston to get the change.  The community would support a change, but it is intractably blocked.

Messaging

From a how can republicans message next year this cycle us some good insight.  We won’t win voters who embrace identity politics so we need to choose messaging to counteract the identity politics.  Point out that immigration is a federal level issue and pivot to more unifying messages.

Crime, but without a vindictive tone, should make inroads.  Something along the lines of needing to move trials more quickly, or how the criminal justice system should give priority to violent crime.  Another good message would be amending the transportation code to remove administrative penalties when criminal or civil penalties have been incurred.

Regarding the mall that’s a tougher sell.  It has grown some, but mainly jewelry stores and the other kiosk type of businesses.  I don’t have a good message for this issue, but the collective brainpower of HCRP and candidates should be able to come up with a message, even if it’s simply something as using the venue to promote civic activates.  The effort, more than anything, will show that candidates are concerned about the issue.

IDENTIFYING HAIL DAMAGE FOR TAX PROTESTS

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We are in property tax protest season. Rather than discuss the different tax plans, this post seeks to find an area of common ground – protesting the property appraisals.  The deadline to file a protest was Monday the 15th, and informal and, if necessary, formal hearings will start soon. The burden is on the taxpayer to establish the condition of the property as of January 1, 2023. Going on the roof to take pictures is a great way to establish hail damage to the roof. However, you still need to establish the damage was present on January 1, 2023. This post shows how to identify hail at a location using National Center for Environmental Information (NCEI) severe weather data inventory and radar base reflectivity imagery.

The first step is to find out if your property was actually impacted by hail. For this example, I’m using a restaurant I go to that had a social media report noting the hail as it happened so there’s no doubt the hail was present. The NCEI severe weather data inventory can be accessed by going to

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/swdi/

Once you are at the severe weather data inventory page you will need to enter in your address. The database will zoom in to a grid where your property is located. In the left hand frame select 2022 (or 2021) for the year and filtered hail signature for the dataset. If a positive result is found in the grid for the year selected – and not all grids have a positive result in any given year – the day filter will let you access each day that had a positive result for the year. An image like the one below will be the result. (Note: I added the black arrow.)

The pop up box has useful information to show the probability of hail on the ground and severe hail on the ground. As a rule of thumb, it takes severe hail to damage a shingled roof. Modern radar has dual polarization technology. The radar sends out both a horizontal and vertical beam and can actually measure the size of the objects the beam hits. This is how the max size field is populated, and tells you the size of the hail in the cloud. From there the box gives probability of hail on the ground, and also probability of severe hail on the ground. So in this example, we have 1.75 inch diameter hail in the cloud with a 100% probability of hail on the ground, and a 70% probability of severe hail on the ground.

Now that a candidate for damaging hail has been identified before January 1, 2023 we have to track the cell to make sure it passed over the property. To do that, we turn to the NCEI radar. The radar will display the base reflectivity setting, which is the setting that you normally see on the evening news. This identifies the intensity of the objects the beam is hitting. The radar can be accessed at https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/radar/ .

Once you have accessed the radar, click on the search option in the top right portion of the display. It looks like a magnifying glass. A box will appear allowing you to type in your address, and the display will zoom into your address. Next, click on measure, and draw a line over your house. The exact measurement is not important. This is so a pop up box will appear when you pan out identifying where your property is located. While not necessary, it’s a good idea to change the background to the gray canvas selection. Then click on the hand icon to pan (zoom) out so you can see the area surrounding your property.

The radar defaults to current time, so you will need to adjust the date and time in the left hand section of the display. The NCEI severe weather data inventory and radar both operate on Zulu time. The severe weather data inventory pop up box will note the time the cell was identified. Go to the nearest 5 minute interval on the radar, hit the update map button, and it will show the cell close to, if not over, your property.

The next step is to identify the hail bearing cell. To do that, use the Zmax method and Mason Criteria. This method utilizes echo intensity (Zmax) to predict the presence of hail on the ground.  This method relies on the physics of the water drops.  As the water drops fall they split apart into smaller drops.  A hailstone is ice (solid water) and resistant to splitting as it falls.  As a result, hailstones show as more intense return echoes than a concentration of water droplets. Any value that is 55 decibels or greater (dark red) is positive for hail on the ground.

The image below is the radar image in our example. Notice that the strongest returns are just to the north of the property, but the property is in the dark red section. The dark red is 55 decibels, and according to the Zmax and Mason Criteria hail algorithm is positive for hail on the ground. The NCEI filtered hail signature gives the verification that this is not a false positive, and the probability of severe hail on the ground. In this instance people at the restaurant at the time posted on social media about the hail so we have an additional layer of information establishing that hail was present.

The final step is to get pictures of the hail damage on your roof. For tax protest purposes damage is damage. However, the goal is to establish that the damage occurred before January 1, 2023 so we have to look for distinct hail spatter marks rather than something like a heat blister. Hail spatter marks have two signs to indicate the damage is from hail rather than a heat blister. The picture below is an extreme close up image of a hail spatter mark. We know this because some of the individual asphalt granules are impressed into the damage.

A second sign that damage is from hail is in the border of the spatter mark. When hail falls it has a vertical vector because of gravity. However, it also has a horizontal vector because of the wind it falls through on the way down. The combination of vertical and horizontal vectors to the hailstone’s direction means the hailstone hits the roof and is pushed slightly into the shingle before it bounces off the roof. This causes the spatter mark to have a shallow and a sharp border, as seen in the picture below. (Also, note a couple of granules are pushed into the spatter mark.)

Hopefully this helps everyone have support for a CDU change to their appraisal and can help lower assessed value. Also, hopefully this will help you to notice hail damage before it gets through the roof and into your attic and causes more damage.