The political discontent with the two main party candidates leaves open the possibility of third party candidates pulling larger than historically normal amounts of votes. The last time a third party candidate (as opposed to an independent candidate in Perot) won a significant amount of the vote was the Bull Moose candidacy of Roosevelt. That divide had medium term impact on the power of the Republican Party and serves as a good template to look at what may happen if Johnson has a respectable showing in November.
According to red state, 10{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of Sanders voters and 13{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of non Trump republican voters are gravitating to Johnson. Using the Real Clear Politics count that’s 3.2 million votes moving into the Johnson column. (1.2 million Bernie + 1.98 million Republicans.) Johnson ran four years ago and won 1.27 million votes leaving a potential current vote tally at 4.27 million votes, which would be 3.3{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the popular vote if 2016 figures are used.
Real Clear Politics has Johnson at 8.6{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the vote meaning 5{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} is coming from some other source. RCP also has 12.6{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the vote unaccounted for leaving an additional potential 16.2 million votes up for grabs. Johnson is pulling 21{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of what Trump and Clinton are pulling leaving 3.4 million of those votes available on a proportional basis. That gives a potential voting pool of 7.7 million votes available to be cast for him. Pulling 7.7 million votes places him at essentially 6{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the popular vote in November.
The not Trump GOP defectors aren’t likely in the Bush-Rubio-Kasich faction. Libertarians are too conservative for the Kasich faction. The Bush-Rubio faction is establishment backed, and a vibrant Libertarian party is a threat since it is an alternate route for the right wing of the GOP. It’s a threat, so the establishment GOP is either holding their nose and voting Trump, or at least sitting on the sidelines so as to not strengthen the threat on the right flank. That leaves the Cruz-Paul-tea party faction as the source that is voting Johnson.
So what happens if Johnson acquires 6{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the vote? The Libertarian Party gains public funding, and hell has no wrath as the establishment and Trump backed GOP. When Roosevelt was able to capture states, but not the Presidency, the Bull Moose faction that was in the GOP was made to suffer for 16 years. The tea party already is a very vocal, but discrete minority portion of the party. Giving life to the Libertarian party will likely cause the majority to crack down on the far right wing of the party. If you want to vote Johnson because you are a Cruz supporter, more power to you. But understand it’s a protest vote. Before you pull the lever think about the future and what’s in the best long term interest of your ideology.
Greg, you state:
Nonsense. The “protest” vote is what brought us Trump as a nominee.
I’ll be voting for Gary Johnson because of the four biggest party candidates (Clinton, Johnson, Stein, Trump) he is the closest to my beliefs and values.
And no, I’m not a Ted Cruz supporter.
DJ
Before you sign on to Johnson because you think he is closer to your beliefs than Trump, read this not so tongue-in-cheek critique of his chances and his stand on key issues – “. . . Johnson is the D.C. archetype of libertarianism: goofy, dotty, gay-loving, and perpetually stoned. His policies come off as inchoate; he supports America as a global policeman and doesn’t want to cut public funds to baby-butchering Planned Parenthood. But he’s adamantly in favor of gay marriage, anti-discrimination laws, and weed legalization. As Michael Brendan Dougherty writes, ‘Johnson seems only to care about the liberties he himself would like to exercise: namely, smoking pot and commanding religious people what to do.’”
http://takimag.com/article/johnsons_rise_and_imminent_fall_james_miller/print#ixzz4FrPH6a5S
I don’t worry too much about those sort of tongue in cheek opinions, particularly when it claims that he thinks America should be a global policeman.
Besides Stein, he is the least likely to get us involved in yet another war. That is top priority for me. I pretty much share his thoughts on personal liberty. Clearly I don’t want Planned Parenthood to receive a penny in tax money but other than that, I don’t find much to disagree with him on social policy. He is pro-growth, low tax, low regulation.
To each their own. I’m not bashing the Republican nominee, just saying I will vote for a different person.
DJ
The not bashing the nominee separates you from a significant portion of the Republican primary voters who are voting Libertarian.
You are a statesman.
On both accounts you are different from the majority of the Republican prinary group voting Libertarian in November.
The stray principled vote isn’t going to be what gives Libertarians a chance at 5{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}.
When it comes time to case that ballot in November, remember, on January 20, either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will the the one raising his/her right hand and taking the oath of office. Each of us has to examine our conscience and determine which of the two would be better for the country and its future. Both have severe weaknesses. There are plenty of reasons to vote against or for either one.
But casting a vote for a third party candidate or staying home isn’t a solution.
Think about it. Ask yourself what would each do in the Oval Office. How about foreign relations? What will our allies think about each.
For me, a presidential candidate who says he will order the military to violate the law of war by torturing prisoners and targeting civilians is a game changer. I taught law of war for the Army and I am a believer. Giving such an order would result either in a mutiny by the military or asking our military to do things we hanged Germans and Japanese for doing. Neither is a pleasant result.
If that make me the kind of one issue voter I rail against, so be it. But the integrity of the U.S. armed forces is that important to me.
Here is one scenario. In a close electoral college contest between Trump and Hillary, the Libertarian ticket composed of two former two-term Republican governors, picks off a few states from both sides and the middle, like for example Colorado (pro marijuana), Utah (polling close currently), New Mexico (Johnson former governor), and Massachusetts (Weld former Governor). If no candidate earns an electoral majority, the vote for president and VP goes to the US House, which, technically, could elect any eligible citizen. In a year like this with the two most unpopular R and D candidates in history, who knows?
Even if he gets into the debates how likely is he to pick off a blue state?
Just when exactly should we start voting for third parties? When the Democrats find a new Trotsky and the Republicans find a new Mussolini? Or do we have to go all the way to Stalin and Hitler before we start “wasting our votes”?
Top of the ballot it’s a wasted vote. Just like my vote for Barr was. Bottom of the ballot the vote could be important. Any third party isn’t going to have a viable candidate to of the ballot right now. However, if a history of office holders can be established then eventually a top of the ballot candidate becomes viable.