We’ve had two wipe outs that have fundamentally changed the party’s status in Harris County. With 2020 a Presidential general election the odds of successfully recovering losses are slim-to-none. With that in mind, what can the party do to recover from the past two cycles? The short answer is to accept we don’t control our fate for 2020 and act to improve our standing rather than think we can reverse the tide in two years.
What the numbers tell us.
The early voting totals paint a grim picture for the county. Derek Ryan voting data after the first weekend can be used to glean information regarding how deep the problem runs. The 310th Judicial District is used for this calculation since that race was in the low average range for Republican votes most of the judicial races saw.
Using Derek Ryan voter data and the final election results we can calculate a range of how general election voters with no primary history voted.
The Derek Ryan data (through the early voting weekend) showed:
Voting History
R only: 32.3, R last primary: 0.7%
D only: 27.2%, D last primary: 1.4%
No Primary History: 30.0%
No Previous History: 5.5%
From here we assume that the Republican only and Republican last primary voted Republican this time, and Democrat only and Democrat last primary once again voted the same way. That gives a total of 33% Republican vote and 28.6% Democrat vote based on the core party voters. This also establishes a floor for the general election vote.
In order to calculate the remaining values we have to make an assumption on the likely distribution of either the general election only voting history or the first time only voting history. Since the new voters are likely combination of 1) young voters 2) newly registered voters and 3) voters who moved into the state the new voters likely break very significantly for the Democrats. To try and get a range value we can use 80% Democrat and 90% Democrat to establish the boundries. The math so far is:
Republican: 33.0%, Democrat: 28.6%
New Voter allocation: Republican 1.1% high, 0.55% low
New Voter allocation: Democrat 4.95% high, 4.4% low
Total:
Republican 33.55 – 34.1%
Democrat 33.0 – 33.55%
So far so good, the core party voters appear to be similar in number. And that’s where the problem lies. The general election results were:
Republican: 43.83
Democrat: 56.17
which gives a general election only voting split of
Republican: 9.73 – 10.28%
Democrat: 22.66 – 23.17%
That’s a 2.25:1 Democrat to Republican ratio or 70-30 Democrat break for the general election only voters. In a nutshell, that’s where we lost the election.
Why did we do so badly with general election voters?
Now that we know where we went wrong the first question to try to answer is why.
Straight Ticket Voting
Some have suggested straight party voting is the cause. The argument has some superficial support in that a whopping 76.44% of votes cast were straight ticket. However, for straight ticket voting to be the cause of the poor performance it would have to follow that voters wouldn’t have voted the down ballot races. The evidence doesn’t support that conclusion. With the Senate race, the under vote was 0.99%, and with the 310th the under vote was 3.00%. That’s a difference of 24,000 votes in a 146,000 vote difference race (310th.) Straight ticket voting may have inched the race in favor of the Democrats, but it didn’t make a meaningful difference.
The Cruz Millstone
Ted Cruz is a liability in county politics. Just how bad is he for the county party? Take this piece of information:
Straight Ticket Republican: 410,465
Total votes not straight ticket: 287,389
Ted Cruz not straight ticket vote tally: 88,248
He only gained 30.7% of the available not straight ticket vote. Remember from earlier that the Republicans only gained 30.0% of the general election only voters. That means Cruz was not able to achieve any appreciable amount of ticket splitting voters. Achieving some appreciable ticket splitting was possible as Bush (40.7%) Hagar (42.5%) and Abbott (51.9%) election results showed. Essentially, Cruz is as bad as it gets for the county party.
Lack of Party Leadership
Recently I was asked who is in control of the county party. I couldn’t give an answer. We have Simpson as the titular head. We have the slates. We have the anti-Simpson crowd. The issues and infighting with the three have been ongoing for quite some time and there’s no point in belaboring those issues with analysis.
Separate from the above, some individuals have clout. Bill King looked to be well positioned to make another serious attempt to take out Mayor Turner in the upcoming election. Now that Tony Buzbee has entered the race it essentially assures a runoff and leaves it as an open question as to who will ultimately challenge turner in the runoff. To some extent both King and Buzbee will have some influence as they are the two major alternatives to Turner. Jim Bingham has significant influence in Shapstown and would be a strong candidate for the District J city council seat since Councilman Laster is term limited out this cycle. Then there’s the Harris County Department of Education which has Republicans in office and therefore have some influence.
Infighting
Then we have the problem of the overall party infighting that’s going on. Outside of the question of who will be the party chair the whole moderate versus far right fighting has become ugly enough that it’s having a detrimental effect on the party. Let me be clear – the party only succeeds when we have a big tent. Right now neither side in the infighting can lay claim to taking the high road on this issue. However, if blame is to be cast, it’s the “get out of my party” element of the moderates who do the most damage. Before the Trump voters started identifying as republicans the far right wing of the party (self identified TEA party as a proxy) was around one third of the party electorate statewide. That would have translated into 30ish seats in the house if Republican makeup of the legislature matched Republican electorate. The Freedom Caucus numbered 11.
The whole Empower Texans is trying to take over the state cry is nothing more than histrionics. The far right segment of the Republican Party is simply trying to obtain representation in line with their percentage of the electorate. No harm there; and the bitter attacks against that segment of the electorate doubtless cost us seats. We may disagree in March, but need to remember we are closer to each other than to the average democrat. That’s just as true for Sarah Davis as it is for the Freedom Caucus.
What can we do?
Identifying the problem and causes aren’t worth the time and effort if we don’t also look to what we can do to turn things around.
It won’t happen next cycle
The first thing to do is assess what can be done for next cycle. The overall atmosphere isn’t going to be conducive to erasing the gains. The top of the ballot drag will continue. Texas Politics Project job approval data for October 2018 shows that Cruz is significantly more disliked than Cornyn (37% disapprove strongly versus 25% disapprove strongly) so there’s the potential for the Senate race to be less of a drag on the county. However, the county will have to contend with Trump on the top of the ballot (40%) so the lack of coattails at the top of the ballot will remain next cycle. Senator Cornyn is a great contrast to Trump insofar as the county party is concerned, and to the extent that the party apparatus can need to appeal to him to campaign in the County. He has a long history of reaching out to Hispanic voters and can be a positive factor. However, Trump will still be too much to overcome coattail wise and the best the county can hope for is to blunt the negative effect.
Understand we don’t control the message
It doesn’t matter what message we put out. We don’t control the message, and the county party needs to stop trying for now. Any effort to push a theme such as “Harris County Works” is simply a waste of resources. Trump will suck the oxygen out of the room big picture wise. It’s going to be far more productive to focus on issues rather than message. To that end, the party needs to stay in the background in the upcoming mayor and city council elections and let the candidates shape the message. Bill King did an excellent job of taking on Mayor Turner last time and Tony Buzbee is capable of dwarfing any effort the county party can muster message proliferation wise. The party needs to let them run their races and focus on logistical support if asked.
Transition to a caretaker party chair
Simpson does a great job fundraising, but the election results don’t have anything to show for his significant fundraising prowess. He is once again going to have a target on him should he seek reelection. If the county party is going to try to coalesce around a leader it’s going to have to be someone else. At the same time, if Simpson is ousted in a bitter contested election it’s not going to be possible to rally around the new chair. The existing battle lines are too entrenched. To that end, it’s best for either a negotiated arrangement for the next party chair, or in the alternative a caretaker chair until the behind the scenes infighting can resolve.
A negotiated resolution is preferable as it would allow Simpson to focus on his prolific fundraising while someone else can focus on the messaging/unification aspects of the party. It would serve as détente rather than solution, but even détente is a step in the right direction which could hopefully lead to a future power structure where the parts were working where they are better suited rather than against each other.
With the players having such a long and bitter recent history détente is likely not possible. To that end, a caretaker party chair who could act more as a mediator/felicitator and resource for candidates may be the better route to go party chair wise. The players have to learn to work together again, or one side needs to win. As long as the battle is fought intraparty on the county party level the ability to focus on improving our position is in the background.
Focus on issues rather than message
Right now we aren’t in a position to erase gains next cycle or to advance a message. The next best course of action is to focus on issues. By focusing on issues the party gains in two ways. First, the party transitions into an entity that does good in the eyes of the electorate. We are the party of personal and fiscal responsibility, but we are also the party of social conservatives who believe in lifting others out of poverty rather than simply issuing a handout. The city has significant problems that need to be addressed. By focusing in on the issues the problems cause the party transitions away from Trump Wall Bombast to hey, they’re the ones articulating solutions to the problems we’re facing. The second benefit is that the issues will come to us. The next mayoral election is going to be a contrast in vision. The contrast highlights the issues, and we take advantage of the mayoral race issues to organize our articulated stances.
This doesn’t mean that we abandon the traditional social conservative values such as abortion as an example. Address abortion from a practical stance while the legislature and PACs fight the fight on the overall big issue. Let the right to life groups push abortion big picture activities. The county party can push the hospital district to make sure they are not improperly excluding applicants (which has become a huge problem lately) to ensure that the destitute have appropriate medical care. The county party can push to make sure that WIC is sufficiently funded to assist if the economy worsens. Both of these activities bear on abortion in that if expectant mothers in crisis pregnancies are satisfied they have the necessary support for the baby they are more likely to choose life.
This blueprint of practical action in support of others fighting the big picture battle can be carried out on a myriad of social issues. This, along with the aforementioned apolitical issues that will arise in the citywide races, gives the county party a great opportunity to change the local image within the overall toxic environment.
Addressing issues on the practical rather than message level makes the county party seem reasonable and like they are doing good. Then outreach becomes significantly easier. Then it’s a lot harder for the voters to simply vote democrat because of the overall toxic environment. We don’t take the county back in 2020, but we do make inroads, which is the best we can do for now.
Jeff Larson says
“Trump will suck the oxygen out of the room big picture wise.”
So, the RNC Committeeman from the Virgin Islands has demanded that the party “close the loophole” in RNC Rule 40 that “allows” a primary challenger to run against Trump. I plan on being at the next RNC meeting in Albuquerque later this month. I really don’t expect his motion to pass for a number of reasons (they’d have to disregard some of their own rules to do it).
But if that does pass, it might be time for the Harris County Republican Party…and the Republican Party of Texas…and the other 49 state Republican parties…to all change their names and distance themselves from the coming implosion.
Maybe if we called ourselves Whigs or something, that would be less toxic.
And there is one thing the party must do if it’s not going to die a slow death. Outreach. If we keep labeling groups as “groups that just won’t vote for us”, pretty soon we’ll have ended up playing the Democrat’s identity politics game for them.
Something I’ve heard from one group that “won’t vote for us” is this: “We know the Democrats lie to us. But at least they pretend to care. You guys don’t even do that.”
When they know you care, they’ll start caring about you.
DanMan says
I read this and can see I don’t fit in the repub party Greg pines for. Good luck.
Greg Degeyter says
Hard to say I pine for anything based on the cold analysis presented here. As far as my underlying beliefs both the far right and moderates criticize so that’s a good indication of where I stand.
Bill Daniels says
The best thing conservatives and libertarians in Harris County can do now is flee to a nearby county that isn’t run by SJW’s and help the other county try and avoid Harris County’s fate. Harris County is gone, due in no small part to Culbers, er, uh, sorry, Lizzie’s suburban district turning. That’s a district with plenty of oil and gas workers, a district that should be fearful of Dem. anti-energy policies. If you live amongst people willing to vote against their own self interest, maybe that’s your cue to get out.
Harris County is now the equivalent of CA, NY, or MA…..places where the only logical solution it to flee.
DanMan says
In my opinion it was time for Culberson, Pete Sessions and several others in the gop to go. This election may have been a cleaning of the barnacles because the leadership of the gop had become as liberal as democrats when it came to spending and advancing social issues.
With the author of this post saying Cornyn is the way forward I can only shake my head. John Cornyn is a chamber of commerce open boarders advocate. His support for controlling the border mirrors John McCain’s in that it comes at election season then disappears.
Ted Cruz withstood an $80 million out of state onslaught that probably kept a lot of dem funding from going elsewhere. John Cornyn will not be able to handle half that amount. As during this past election with Ed Emmitt I was an undercount for his election in 2014. I do not like liberal republicans at all and I won’t vote for them.
But I am a bit more optimistic on the future. We are going to get a front row seat to crazy for the next two years and we have the luxury of a backstop in Trump. Houston is gone but it has been on that path for almost 20 years now. Too bad about Harris County because it will soon get as infected as Houston with pay to play. But the bills will come due and economic gravity will force changes.
I think the message the local gop should champion is economic freedom from the ravages of the accrued public pension debt that is being pushed onto the citizens. It can’t be paid and shouldn’t. If I read the articles right the people that have those outsized pensions have voted many times to arrive at the place they find themselves. The police and munis voted for their raises and the firemen voted for their pensions. We didn’t have a say or a vote for any of this mess. If the gop is going to go along with the status quo then they are and should be considered useless.
Lets face it. On the national scene Paul Ryan smothered any conservative initiative in the house and McConnell with his cabal of liberals in Corker, McCain, Flake, Collins and Murkowski couldn’t advance anything remotely conservative even if he wanted to. No wall funding, full federal funding of planned parenthood, deficit spending as large as anything the dems ever did with both chambers and a gop president. But I am hopeful 2020 could bring an opportunity to return to a legitimate two party system again.
Tom says
Dan Man: Just a thought about pensions for government employees. Those pensions are part of the employees’ compensation package. Presumably, a lot of city employees accept lower wages in return for great pensions. And, yes, Houston police are paid less than Harris County deputy sheriffs and fire fighters pay is well below that in other Texas cites.
The problem with the pension system is that city council failed to fund it year after year. If city council had put the acturarily correct amount of money in the pension plans every year, we wouldn’t have a problem. Failure to fund pension programs is a snowballing problem. Every year you shortchange the pension contributions, the deficit gets bigger and bigger.
You wouldn’t ask city employees to give back part of their paychecks dating back to the day they were hired, would you. Why ask them to give up part of their pensions that were part of their compensation package along with health insurance, sick leave and vacation? There is plenty of blame to go around on the pension mess. Mayors dating back probably to the 1990s began cutting the city’s pension contributions and spending the money on other things.
As for the citizens not having a say in government employee salaries and pensions, sure they do. It’s called the city council. Elections have consequences. If you vote for council candidates who will cave into employee salary demands without raising taxes to pay for them, that’s your problem.
I’m not and never have been a city employee and the only government pension I have (other than Social Security) is my military pension. And, I earned every penny of that.
Harris County doesn’t have this pension problem. Maybe it’s because it’s part of the Texas County and District Employees pension fund and the county commissioners pay in every year what is needed to fund the program. And, county pensions for longterm employees are darn generous.
It’s simply a matter of governing bodies doing their jobs.
DanMan says
“If you vote for council candidates who will cave into employee salary demands without raising taxes to pay for them, that’s your problem.”
citizens beware, this is how they think. Lee Brown did not consult his council when he initiated the pensions as they are and he alone made the initial decision not to fund them. There are many moving parts in the pension mess but the citizens had the least involvement yet are expected to bear the cost. The police and muni unions voted to take raises. The HFD union voted to fund their pensions. There have been plenty of options offered to everybody involved except for the citizens.
Jerry E Patterson says
Assuming Trump is the 2020 R nominee Harris County will get slaughtered again. If Trump’s not the nominee, Harris County still gets slaughtered but with some survivors. If Beto is on the D presidential ticket as P or VP, Texas will be seriously in danger of going Democrat for president. Without Texas no R can win the presidency. Why do I say this? Cruz beat Trump by 500,000 votes in the R primary. Cruz remains more popular (or less unpopular) in Texas than Trump. Cruz barely beat Beto in the general election, so how will Trump fare as our top of the ticket.? Not as well as Cruz, and Cruz won by a mere 1.6%.
Mainstream says
Cornyn is far less offensive to the general election voters than Cruz apparently was, so I have confidence he can hold on to his seat in 2020.
I have less confidence that Trump can win Texas in 2020, and despair of his chances of winning Harris County and the effect on local contests like State Rep. Bohac and maybe others. Hidden in the weeds of data details from the 2018 losses in Harris County is the largely undiscovered or unremarked fact that black voter turnout for the Democrats was quite low this year. If the same black voters who turned out in 2016 had shown up at the polls in 2018, we would be looking at a Senator Beto right now.
Greg Degeyter says
Black turnout level is an interesting piece of information. Where did you find the data?
Mainstream says
This is evident from two sources: individual precinct data, and from amalgamating results by state house district. Since each state house district is equivalent in total population, you would expect rough parity in total votes. Here are the results for Cruz and Beto by Harris County state house district (of course some voters of all races live in all districts, but the trend is clear)
HD126 28,683 26,642
HD127 40,910 27,332
HD128 34,892 17,040
HD129 35,233 29,467
HD130 50,631 25,486
HD131 5,921 35,793
HD132 32,045 34,388
HD133 39,175 32,412
HD134 35,387 54,687
HD135 26,108 29,740
HD137 6,996 17,188
HD138 22,682 25,748
HD139 10,245 36,770
HD140 5,181 18,305
HD141 3,976 27,231
HD142 8,410 31,178
HD143 7,482 21,146
HD144 8,895 14,406
HD145 9,376 23,500
HD146 7,817 35,558
HD147 9,359 45,894
HD148 14,536 33,378
HD149 13,603 25,179
HD150 40,632 30,112
Mark Goloby says
could our problem be complacency and a dose of laziness?
John Culberson should have been fired 8 years ago. He missed the last two State Conventions. Or if he was there he missed the call up both times. I tried to help anyone who primaried him. You wouldn’t have a worker whose only demonstrable achievement is his daughter’s horse riding training. We wouldn’t do the heavy lifting, so the democrats did.
Harris County wounds are self inflicted. Ed Emmitt played silly nonsense moving the bond election around. An election that won by 85%. A huge miscalculation that in addition to being asinine cost the taxpayers to conduct this off schedule election. That bond could have been the meat for the entire HCRP to base their campaigns. Vote for the BOND and vote Republican to administer it. Instead the office seekers were left with a smidgeon of signs with that resounding rallying call “Harris County Works”. Can someone generate how many voters voted in that election and did not turn up for the general?
As far as the future, the Democrats and the Republicans do a disservice to the Hispanic community assuming they are an homogenous group. They are as diverse a voting block as any other you can name. Our counterpoint should be along the lines of, if the Democrat economic policies are so great, then your future is Venezuela. Most of the Hispanics know what that means and know it was an Hispanic self inflicted wound. It is insulting to Hispanics to be relegated as if they are a single voting block for Democrats or Republicans to be mined at election time.
Stop silly voting tablets that have you knock on every 10th door and get out there and engage the electorate. Have I had doors slammed in my face? Only figuratively. Some would say it might be an improvement if someone did.
howie katz says
Very good post, Greg, but Harris County will be a Democratic bastion from now on. The GOP can kiss Houston and the county goodbye … or adios might be more appropriate.
As for Trump, he may not even be around come November 2020. You can expect Mueller to get Donald Jr. and son-in-law Jared Kushner indicted. If Donald Jr. and Kushner are indicted, there is a good possibility that Trump will cut a deal with Mueller that would call for his resignation from office in return for the dropping of all charges against his family. It’s the art of the deal.
Byron Schirmbeck says
Interesting analysis but it is glaringly missing a lot of information and some conclusions are over simplistic or just off the mark. The underlying premise that we need “responsible” “moderate” Cornyn RINO style GOPers to save us from the Democrat majorities in Harris county is specious at best. Case in point is the county judge race. Emmett should have won in a small margin, he has objectively done a decent job with managing the county, not speaking out on social issues, he courted D voters as the voice of reason and not your typical R and even endorsed a Democrat on the ticket over the R incumbent in a state wide race. He did everything you are searching for and had the benefit of name recognition and incumbency but lost to an unknown D with no record or political resume to speak of. If that doesn’t tell you that the problem really is that the county is simply majority Democrat and Democrat leaning voters nothing will.
The analysis of the Cruz effect is lacking since you didn’t mention that some of his undervote or crossover vote is likely from Trumpsters who still hold a grudge for their dispute in the presidential primary despite their Houston love fest.
So let’s talk about the problems you listed. There are other counties we can look at that had most of the exact same “problems” you are attributing to a large part of the defeat in Harris county. The most notable is Montgomery county directly to the North. To my knowledge Cruz the millstone was on every ballot there as well. the % totals for Cruz were 72.31, Abbott was 76.04, Ken Paxton 71.87 and Dan Patrick at 72.50. So some top ballot races did worse than Cruz some did slightly better and some were essentially the same. So the fact is Cruz isn’t a “liability in county politics” he MAY be a liability in HARRIS COUNTY politics which is a different question.
Lack of leadership? Yes from the entrenched MOCO county chair who has done everything he can to keep the party in the dark ages and to ingratiate and include the actual Democrats that only run as Rs so they can win and the far left liberals in the county that support them. There was leadership from the “far right” ET TEA party movement which essentially took over the party kicking and screaming from the establishment folks and did one of the best GOTV programs we have seen despite being fought the whole time by the traditional party apparatus the whole time.
Infighting? You betcha, the county party used the new state party rules to get the Chair to accept the legally and correctly passed new bylaws adopted last year which he still hasn’t acknowledged and this led to the state party for the first time to my knowledge stating the Chair disgraced the party. You don’t get more infighting than that. Heck several of the traditional county party active and visible members actually declared they weren’t Rs anymore and voted for, endorsed and campaigned for Democrats in the general just to spite the legitimate party leaders.
So what were the results in MOCO with all of these problems? The Cruz millstone, lack of leadership, infighting etc? It was basically a 75/25 election as good or better than any previous election in the county. Now, based on that, I could make the argument that the way to win in Harris county is to go hard conservative like the party did in MOCO and purge the RINOs and that would be our pathway to win but that surface analysis is just as lacking as yours. We don’t have a Harris County problem, we have a HOUSTON problem. There is no way that the more conservative districts in Harris county can ever muster enough votes to overcome the growing far left liberal Houston blue bubble.
Thinking that we can make ground if we just act more like Democrats is probably correct, we can probably get some Democrats to hate us slightly less and not vote AGAINST us as much but then the question is do we want the results of that? If Sarah Davis and John Cornyn are the only way to save the county party is it actually worth saving? I bet if you dig deeper analysis of the entire county you would find that, for conservative voters, when they get to the county level there are a lot of candidates that they either couldn’t stomach voting for or maybe only voted for because they pulled straight ticket and with that going away would likely reduce those votes in the future. Why? Because they are tired of our candidates barely being visibly different from the Democrats except during primary season. So if the solution is to move the party even farther left any gains you might win by doing so could be offset by conservative votes you would lose without straight party voting.
I think the county judge race is a good example of this. If you look at the judge races it would seem the natural split in party voting is 55/45 D to R. Eliminating the L in the race Emmett got 49% of the vote. So at best, acting more like Democrats or at least trying to convince them that you aren’t the hard core conservative Ted Cruz type bought 6 points in the race. But accounting for name recognition, incumbency etc. would have to be at least 2 or 3 points of that. So at best there is maybe a 3-4 point bump for moving left in the general in Houston. That isn’t enough to overcome the natural 55/45 dynamic and that will likely be even less by alienating voters on our side.
I also have a hard time buying into the implied premise that we have already lost 2020 because of Trump. Let’s just say he resigns or is impeached or primaried out and isn’t on the ballot in 2020. Do you are anyone else actually think Harris county is going to go back to red? Not with a natural 55/45 advantage. You might find an isolated win here or there because the 55/45 split doesn’t apply at certain precincts. It would seem to me that anyone pushing the idea that Trump has already lost us Harris county is actually about two elections behind. The blue slide started before he was on the radar. I do agree that being on the ballot will increase the turnout but I doubt the % will change too much. There is even an argument to be made that him being on the ballot may inspire an increase in R turnout to save him, who knows.
In the end as long as Houston keeps drawing in yankees and blue staters that are trying to turn Texas into the places they just destroyed there likely isn’t a solution to turning Harris County back around but the WORST idea is to try to just act more like Democrats so they don’t hate us so much. If that is the plan then it’s best to just close the doors and wait it out. The pathways you are suggesting seem filled with detours to D town.
Greg Degeyter says
So much to address here.
I would posit that comparing Harris County to Montgomery County is of little probative value insofar as turning Harris County back red. The political make up of the two are significantly different, as you alluded to with your 55/45 comment. Cruz was an asset there while a millstone here.
The biggest danger Harris County faces is the small tent mentality you articulate with the RINO comment. Ron Paul types win some districts. They get slaughtered in some districts. Sarah Davis wins her district, but gets slaughtered in a Ron Paul district.
The county is closer to Davis and Cornyn than it is to Cruz. Individual state house districts are right of the county makeup as two of the Freedom Caucus hail from the county, but overall the county averages center left. That’s what we face as a County party.
No overarching theme or message is going to work in all parts of the county. The party is going to have to meet individuals where they are at. That’s going to require letting individual candidates run the race they need to run for their districts while the county party apparatus addresses the overall county makeup.
As others have said and the post mentioned in passing at its conclusion outreach is the key to reversing the blue wave. Flores’ victory over Gallego shows that outreach bears fruit. The typical county voter is more apt to move Cronyn right than Cruz right. Once a voter has been brought into the tent then it’s possible to try and draw them farther right. But we have to get them in the tent first.
Bill Daniels says
Byron,
Absolutely spot on analysis!
byron schirmbeck says
@ Greg Degeyter;
You seem to not have read what I posted and just jumped to your apologist tendencies when you got triggered by the APT use of the word RINO. I actually said that the two counties weren’t the same and that yes a Republican trying to be like a Democrat would likely do better in Harris county because of that make up. You are once again missing the point. The first is I was mainly correcting your error is stating that Cruz is a “liability to county politics” that is absolutely false as you have seemingly acknowledged in your reply. He is in some counties in others he is a benefit and in some he makes little to no difference. Your statement had the implication intended or not that he is a liability in more counties than the scope of what you wanted to demonstrate.
Second you missed the point that my using MOCO as an example was to show that the other things you declared to be problems leading to losses in Harris County are not actually the problems you would make them out to be. Otherwise we would see that in other counties. You simply didn’t demonstrate your argument. That is what I was addressing.
You would be surprised how big my tent is so relegating yourself to a false claim of pushing small tent mentality is pretty laughable to those that know me. The one thing you guys NEVER EVER answer is how far away from Republican principles does a candidate need to be before you say there isn’t a dimes worth of difference between them and the Democrats. You take the fact that there are honest disagreements on policy and social issues to some degree and stretch that to mean that anyone that actively opposes our core beliefs is someone we want to be an elected representative of ours. Why bother? Just vote Democrat. Seriously, what is it that gets you to call yourself a Republican if there isn’t one single issue that is a deal breaker for you? This theory that we can win if we just out Democrat the Democrats is wrong headed, offensive and just flat out false. They are much better at than we are.
Greg Degeyter says
I read the comment Byron. The post was regarding the politicl situation in Harris County. Pretending otherwise is folly.
The Cruz undervote likely doesn’t have many Trump supporters. Trump supporters likely didn’t want to vote for Cruz at first, but when Beto closed the gap and his victory seemed possible a vote for Cruz became necessary. The undervote count also doesn’t support your Trump voter anti Cruz undervote. His race had fewer undervotes than any of the other statewide positions. The evidence simply doesn’t support your thesis that Trump voters sat the race out.
The role of the county party needs to have two functions 1) support local candidates as they run their race 2) meet the electorate where they are and start moving them to the right.
Cruz and blasting the RINO horn doesn’t do that. It really comes down to a choice. Do we want to fight, or do we want to win?
byron schirmbeck says
I am pretending nothing. I took you at your word. You should be more careful with your language. Saying “Ted Cruz is a liability in county politics.” is not the same as saying “Ted Cruz is a liability in HARRIS county politics.” No matter how much you wish it to be so, But that is a minor correction and point, just like the fact that there likely was SOME undervote for Cruz by disgruntled Trumpsters We can disagree about how much but it doesn’t matter since my statement that there likely was some was true.
I see you still ignore the bulk of my rebuttal to your reasonings for the dismal results which only leads me to believe I was pretty spot on pointing out the volumes of evidence suggesting that the reasons you listed either aren’t really reasons or didn’t make the difference you would suggest they did. I am sorry you spent time on a failed article but it doesn’t pass the smell test.
I agree it comes down to a choice. unfortunately your choice is between our Democrats and their Democrats. You prefer our Democrats over theirs and I choose not to fight for a Democrat just because they are waving our flag. It’s far better to lose a race honestly to a liberal Democrat than to compromise our principles to limp one of our RINOs across the finish line. You will never convince me that our path forward is by trying to be better Democrats than the Democrats are. If that is what you are fighting for please stop because either way you are fighting to put Democrats in office.
Greg Degeyter says
I disregard your arguments because you generally are unwilling to have a discussion without casting blame, calling names, or accepting criticism.
Not an elephant says
Looks like Byron has reading comprehension problems. The very first line says this post is about Harris County. And when mentioning Cruz, the author notes that Cruz was a problem for “the” county party.
Trying to compare HC to MC is like comparing an elephant to a gnat.
Thoughtful post Mr. Degeyter.
byron schirmbeck says
An interesting comment considering my arguments were a point by point factual rebuttal of YOUR faulty analysis, but sure, I am the one unable to accept criticism. I think the reason you disregard reasonable factual arguments that contradict your claims is more a matter of ego than anything else. That really isn’t conducive to a discussion so you may want to step out of that glass house before you hurl that stone. Just to review;
Moving left to win D votes is bad policy it demoralizes your voters, it shows others you don’t mean what you say and the love you seek from
Democrats won’t show up because they still like their guys better.
Your contributing factors you claim are responsible for cutting votes in Harris county didn’t actually make much if any difference, at least not to the level you would suggest. We know that because we can see the same issues elsewhere as I demonstrated with MOCO without that effect so factually, scientifically, logically speaking there cannot be the causal relationship you want there to be. The simple readers digest version of what happened is there are more of them than us.
I must have missed where I called you any names in here, but maybe I stopped looking after you made a false claim about the small tent mentality I was pushing.
I wish to remain anonymous says
I remember after the 2006 midterms, Limbaugh disappeared for weeks, then acted like everything was peachy when the republicans whom controlled everything got hammered. The republicans dont do anything when in control (aside from yammering on about abortion and democrats are bad) and this is but another example. Adios John Culberson you were a real champion for your constituents (sarc).
The truth is We Are To Blame!
Don Sumners says
It has been interesting to read all the analyses being offered about why the Republicans (conservatives) have lost control of Harris County to the Democrats. To me the answer to the Republican losses in Harris County can be explained far more simply.
A majority of the state’s metropolitan residents now favor relying on the government, rather than themselves, to solve their problems. The old Texas population made up of proud, independent, self-reliant citizens is no more. This Texas heritage now remains a majority only with the state’s seniors and rural citizens.
The new preponderance of Texas metropolitans voting Democrat should not come as a surprise. It fits right in with the ever growing lack of responsibility being exhibited by today’s so called adults. Adolescent like irresponsible personal behavior is now exhibited by adults of all ages. An entire economy has be created to cater to this behavior. Think of low down payments on homes and 72-month car loans and roll-over of underwater trade-in balances into new loans, not to mention the rapid reissuing of credit to previous abusers. Governments have done the same. Spend now and pay later is now the rule rather than the exception. Common sense has been rejected in favor of the free lunch.
Other irrational behavior exhibited by voters is hard to explain. I was astonished by the number of Beto signs appearing in affluent neighborhoods consisting of residents who have benefited greatly from free enterprise and who will see significant tax reductions from the recent Republican tax cut bill. Two residents on my block, both working for oil companies, had Beto signs in their yard. Explain that!
Bill Daniels says
Don,
Another good analysis. I too wonder why people would vote against their own self interest, both with Beto AND with Lizzie. Funny how Lizzie ran on NOT being Nancy Pelosi’s stooge, but her very first act was stepping up and getting Pelosi the House speakership. Never saw THAT coming.
Tom says
Don: A few thoughts on your premise that Harris County residents, like a lot of other urban residents, are relying on government to solve their problems. Urban areas have problems that don’t exist in rural areas.
Take roads. The government just spent a billion dollars widening US 290. The reason was that it was overcrowded. City streets are a mess and the city’s infrastructure is appalling in a lot of ways. Urban residents rely on government to do things like bring us water, then get rid of it after we’ve used it to wash clothes and flush toilets. We rely on government for fire protection and police protection. We rely on government to provide a court system to allow us a way to resolve disputes, often among ourselves.
Some of those government functions don’t exist in some rural areas. People have wells for water and septic tanks. The roads aren’t bumper-to-bumper. There’s ofttien less need for law enforcement and fire protection.
In my opinion, what society needs to do is decide either to determine what government services we want and need, then tax to pay for them OR determine how much we want in taxes, then set the level of city services on the money available. Do you want good roads or low taxes. Pick.
As for things like low interest home loans and 72 month car payments, you are too young to remember times like in the ’50s and 60s where homes were sold with a $1 move-in for veterans and cars fell apart after three years. If a car is going to last only three years, they finance it for only three years. I’m currently driving a 9 year old car with 142,000 miles on it and it’s nowhere near falling apart. If a car is going to last six years, why not pay for it over its lifetime? That’s what my parents did, they just didn’t expect the car to last more than three years.
And, before you comment, I paid cash for my current car. We were prepared to pay cash for my wife’s car but the dealership gave us a 36-month zero interest loan. That’s a no-brainer.
Gregory Shaw says
As usual, Mr. Sumners is correct. The best run campaign for a County Office cannot overcome National and Statewide cultural trends.
I feel that it is imperative that Republicans in Harris County work to turn-out our voters (no matter how diminished the number become) as efficiently and effectively as possible, so as to help keep the State competitive.
I’m ready to concede that Texas will turn purple, but not blue.
Shawn says
What can I say, I am not a Republican, I am a fiscal conservative, social Moderate, I.E. if the Libertarian Party actually knew what that meant I would be one of them. However, they don’t so I wind up as an Independent that the Republican Party from how they have interacted with me seems to think that they own my vote. As long as they continue to betray what they promised to get that vote no they do not.
While I do not like Cruz, I respect him because he actually did what he said he would do more than a lot of the other politicians. As for Cornyn I only hear from him when he wants my money to support him, frankly I think that he would have lost against Beto if he was forced to beat that much money coming in. As for Trump, he was my third choice, and I was one of the ones who said no more Clinton’s or Bush’s, I went for Ben Carson first until it was obvious how far over his head he was then voted for Cruz, when he lost and it was Trump versus Hillary it wasn’t a choice and I voted for Trump.
Now on him, Trump has been a surprise, I got one very good Supreme Court Justice (point 1 for why I voted for him) and one that I am not so happy about. I also got a Tax cut that the Republicans weaseled on, which I am not happy about. The last thing is I have gotten a lot of conservative Federal Judges that give me some hope. So he probably keeps my vote although I would like to break his thumbs.
Your problem is 1. Straight Ticket, 2. Heavy influx of money, 3. The Bond Issue was a problem, 4. The worst Harris County ad campaign I have ever seen, and 5. Houston is a millstone that isn’t going away and will continue to go Democrat due to the demographics and Democrat Light RINO Republicans are not going to change that. They will however chase people like me away who will go and try to found a Third Party. I surprised myself when I voted for Trump because I did not want Hillary because I had told myself I wasn’t doing that again.
Tom says
Since I’ve already commented a bunch here, one last thought then I’m done with this topic. I keep seeing people use the word RINO. And on this board it’s been applied to me. I resent it.
I was an officer in my high school teen-age Republicans in the 1960s, when it was a felony to be a Republican in Texas. I was an officer in the University of Texas Young Republicans in the 1970s. I worked for Republican candidates in this state when we knew we had no chance of winning and we were trying to build a Republican Party. I vote in the Republican primary unless there are no Republican hot races and I have a friend running for judge in the Democratic primary.
My Republican credentials are as good as anyone’s and I resent the hell out being called a Republican In name only.
Do I toe the party line all the time? No. I’m not a member of the North Korean Worker’s Party. But I’ve seen a lot of things I believe hurt the Republican Party I helped build. First is the rise of a mindset in which you have to accept the party orthodoxy 100 percent of the time or you’re not a true Republican. Another is the rise of single issue voters who knock good people off in the primary. Take Judge Jay Karahan in last year’s primary.
Judge Karahan is what everyone wants in a judge. He’s fair, knows the law and makes everyone play by the rules. He’s polite to everyone in his courtroom. But he got bumped off in the primary because he performed weddings and after the Supreme Court said same sex marriage was constitutionally protected, he performed a same sex wedding. I don’t care what you think about same sex marriage, if a judge is going to perform any weddings, he should treat all couples alike.
More than a decade ago some Republican leaders saw the changing demographics of Harris County and wanted to do outreach to minorities to protect the party as the county’s population changed. After all, Hispanics for example basically are conservative folks who could be convinced to vote Republican. Then Republican leaders and officeholders demonize Hispanics with myths about swarms of illegal aliens crossing the border to get welfare and commit crimes. Do you think Hispanics are going to vote for the party that says bad things about their ethnic group?
Manuel Barrera says
Tom you are correct on the last part, many in my family used to vote Republicans, not a single one of us voted for a Republican this last election and some of us will never vote for a Republican again.
Don Sumners says
Tom:
I can’t identify you and it’s not necessary, but I am older than you. Thanks for the complement in thinking you were older than me. I graduated from college when you were in high school.
My first car in 1955 was a 1939 Ford coupe. It was still dependable, although technically obsolete.
It is true that autos did not last as long, but times were prosperous and auto design and features were changing rapidly causing buyers to upgrade frequently much as cell phone users did for the last few years. It was many years before 48 month car loans became common. Zero down home loans were available to veterans after the war, but most home buyers had to provide at least a 10 percent down payment (20% was prevalent) and loans were limited to 25 years. Credit cards did not exist. Store credit was limited to 90 days.
Like you I was a Republican early on. While at UT Austin I served as an assistant election judge before I could vote. I first voted in the special election won by John Tower. From your comments I can tell you are conservative in your ways. But, I can also see why you are branded as a RINO.
When I mentioned the desire of urban residents to have government solve their problems for them rather than being self reliant, I was not talking about the services you mention. You mention only Traditional government services such as roads and utilities, fire and police, the courts, etc. All those services are provided to the vast majority of Texans, wherever they live, and if anything, the rural residents of the state receive less of them than their urban neighbors. The lack of modern utilities in some rural areas is not a benefit of living in the country, it is a deficiency. My wife had grandparents with outhouses, not a plus for country living.
The services citizens are now demanding from their governments are largely social services. I am not talking about the services needed to provide for the truly needy. Since the federal government is the only government that can print money and borrow endlessly, these services and benefits are primarily financed by Washington. The current demands are endless; voters want rent subsidies, free health care, free college tuition and student loan forgiveness, the list is unending. The majority of voters see the democrats as the party promising these benefits and rescue them from their own bad behavior or provide free lunches. Even the IRS once feared is now a paper tiger. Delinquent and non-filing taxpayers are routinely allowed to wipe out most of their taxes through a IRS fresh start program.
The old adage that all politics is local is no longer true. Political preference is now driven largely driven at the national level. This phenomenon has been building for over twenty years. The republicans were successful with a national agenda in 1994, the year republicans swept Harris County and I was elected County Treasurer. Todays media sources reinforce the national narrative.
The November 2018 Harris County voters did not elect their county representatives because of qualifications or record of service; they were selected strictly by party affiliation. The ability to vote straight ticket encourages this behavior, but is not always decisive .
The lack of involvement of those elected officials in control of the republican dominated Harris County government in the election certainly contributed to the democrat sweep of all county offices, but I recognize that even an enhanced effort may have not prevented the democratic victory.
For years these officials have thought that building roads and parks and maintaining community centers would keep them in power. They have starved the Hospital District and failed to provide the facilities and funds necessary for the taxpayer servicing departments such as the Tax Office to effectively provide services. Long lines at under staffed inadequate facilities to not promote a desire to reelect the incumbent party. Instead, they have chosen to rat hole large amounts of skyrocketing property taxes to enhance the county’s already high bond rating. At the same time they have actively fought efforts of fellow republicans to obtain tax reform, both locally and at the state. The controlling county officials have also exhibited little public presence outside their party faithful. A dismal republican campaign effort was also a contributor. Did anyone decide to vote for County Judge Emmett because his grandchildren like him?
A word of caution, with the democrats obtaining control of Harris County government we should prepare for the reallocation of some county taxes to assist the financial situation at the City of Houston, which is prone to funding questionable and inefficient social services.
Greg Degeyter says
Don: beyond basic utilities and emergency services, what level of government services do you think is the proper scope for local government to provide?
I’m curious because articulating your stance of retaining services for the truly needy while reigning in other social services in favor of basic services seems like a good starting point for having discussion with voters about the two visions of government the two parties hold.
The recent votes for the pension bond, flood bond, and firefighter pay all suggest that the opening for that discussion is at hand. How are we going to pay for all these services is a good mantra for the short term. The City doesn’t have an answer other than raise the spending cap and increase taxes. Illustrating that point is a great way to frame scope of government discussion.
Ross says
The pension bond was done to improve financing of benefits city employees earned years ago. Not much choice there. The flood bond provides money for projects that, considering recent history, seem very necessary. The HFD pay raise was stupid voting by morons. But, since it passed, the City had to come up with the money to pay for it. If the cost of Prop B is $100 million, that will increase the public safety component of Houston general fund costs to about 62% of the total. Current public safety spending exceeds property tax collections by a significant amount. So, where is the money for Prop B going to come from, given the revenue cap and the current costs for police and fire?
Don Sumners says
Greg: Before the “New Deal” Americans were pretty much left to their on efforts to live. Governments provided only the traditional services of health, fire, police, sewer and water, libraries, courts and records, etc. National defense was an exclusive duty of the Federal government. Government services for the poor including public hospitals were limited with religious and non-profits organizations providing most, but still very limited.
The biggest remaining government benefit of the era is social security which was originally created to be self funding and being paid beginning at age 65. With the life expectancy at the time, recipients were expected to receive benefits for only a few number of years. The real expansion of social benefits began with the war on poverty. Even then it wasn’t intended that these benefits would be paid over a prolonged period of time.
Fast forwarding to the present, social benefits from all governments have exploded and the benefit periods have increased to be almost permanent. Medicare and Medicaid, food stamps, the WIC program, are among these additions. Immigrants, even illegal one, that never before received special benefits before, now do.
I am afraid that any effort to make any significant cuts in these programs would be politically impossible. Once you give the public a benefit it is next to impossible to take it back. The best hope for the present is stopping the addition of the new social benefits now being demanded; Medicaid for all, free college tuition, forgiveness of student loans, etc.
The how are we going to pay for it argument is only marginally effective with today’s voters, and mostly with state and local government voters where the governments are still required to balance their budgets. Spending at the Federal level is completely out of control. Apparently a majority of voters in Federal elections are no longer swayed by this argument. Why should they be? Most are not paying any income tax or only a small amount. And, as the Federal government is not restrained for paying for these benefits with deficit borrowing, no one is really paying for them.
I wish I had a silver-bullet idea on how to stop the socialization of our country at the Federal level. We now have a majority of voters in national elections who receive far more in benefits than they pay in taxes.
One idea worth a try is to convince big business interests that they aren’t going to buy their way out of the affects of this new radial movement of the left. Another idea is to create a campaign to convince voters that the free lunches they are now receiving will become toxic and poison them.
Or, the democrats might foolishly defeat themselves by attempting to raise taxes. They might find themselves on the wrong side of the voters by trying to repeal a given benefit.
If government reform is not successful, eventually the Federal government could pass the tipping point and find itself without the ability borrow. But even then, as the last resort, the Federal government could just start printing money to pay its bills. Only then would the voters revolt. However, chances are the result might be a totally socialist government, not a return to the government of a self reliant citizenry.
howie katz says
Greg, Tom and Don, you’ve all made some very good points, but the bottom line is that the Democrats will continue to be a majority in Harris County and their numbers are likely to increase significantly as time goes by. No matter what the GOP will do to attract Democrats to vote for Republicans, it’s not going to work. In Harris County, the only Republicans that will be elected are congressional candidates, county commissioner candidates and Houston city council candidates in Republican-majority districts.
And it’s the same in the other large cities of Texas. It won’t make any difference whether Republican candidates are bedrock conservatives or RINOs.
It may not be too long before the Republican sweep of state offices will come to an end. That could be sooner than you think. 2020 could be a disastrous year for the GOP in Texas.
Greg Degeyter says
But we have to try. Outside of the immediate local impacts if the state is going to stay center right Harris County is where the battle has to be fought.
The county by county data showed that roughly only 10% of the counties are competitive. Red counties are deep red and blue counties are deep blue.
We are likely at a point where maximizing base votes in the counties has been reached. The victor in this battle is whoever is more successful reaching over and peeling away votes in the counties where the party lost.
For us, that means Harris county. The DFW metroplex is a lost cause right now. Austin is too liberal to make any headway. San Antonio and El Paso might could peel away some votes, but they have significant entrenched positions and lower population totals. Harris, though, hasn’t had time for the blue waves to take hold and become entrenched. We still have a small window to claw our way back.
Even if we don’t win any countywide elections next cycle if the result is 53-47 that’s a net 4 points in our direction which keeps the state wide races safer.
eric dick says
Great article Greg but I disagree with you on a few points. First, taking special interest money only worsens the problem. Many people frown at the Republican party because they correctly think it is corrupt. HCRP should use a Beto method of raising funds by a collecting a large amount of small donations via social media, text, etc. Second, HCRP can win in 2020 but won’t because it is too stubborn to make the structural changes needed (ie: populist messaging).