Ever since the post endorsing Buzbee for mayor several people have asked how I can call myself a conservative and support Buzbee over King. That question brings up a very important hidden issue – how can I call myself a conservative – that’s going to have significant impact in 2020. The narrow minded viewpoint of what makes someone a conservative and trying to winnow individuals out of the big tent is a significant problem the party needs to address. But that’s not what this post is about. This is about answering their question, how can a conservative support Buzbee over King.
To begin with, King is the clear number two choice. He’s far superior to what Turner/Boykin/Lovell have to offer the city. Not having one of that trio at the helm is imperative to the long term fiscal health of the city. We all lose if one of those three win. However, voting out of fear isn’t what’s best for the city. Voting for the candidate who has the clearest path to victory is what’s best for the city. King has utilized his blog effectively to stake out positions since his last run. Kudos to him, he has done a great job in that regard. The problem is that his blog is a double edged sword when it comes to his campaign.
Path to Victory
Last election was close, but the city has moved to the left since the last mayoral election. While the Turner/Boykin/Lovell voting base is currently split three ways as we get closer to election day one of the three will lag in the polls and their voters will drift to the other two in order to have a runoff candidate that will reasonably maintain the current city trajectory. Assuming King was to be in the runoff against one of those three what’s his path to victory?
It’s hard to say the firefighters because of his blog. He is a critic of their pension plan, even going so far as say, “No one has been more direct than I have been in telling the fire fighters that their pension plan is unsustainable in the long run” when declaring he was going to vote with the firefighters in support of prop B. That’s not exactly a position that firefighters should see as unwavering support. That’s a position that should lead to unease.
Even if it is King versus Turner round two in the runoff King’s going to need to do more to create a path to victory, and he doesn’t have many options. With as many legitimate candidates in the field the “also ran” candidates supporters are likely to tip the scales. This means that a sustained negative campaign element is very risky. Come across too hard, and the attack pieces turn off Boykin and Lovell supporters along with the Turner supporters. With the also rans alienated by negative campaigning they aren’t going to back King.
Doing the Minimum
King has released a seven point plan if he were to be elected. This plan is a great example of King doing the minimum. The plan’s points are the absolute minimum we should expect from a candidate. This plan has many cosmetic elements – the independent office of inspector general, restoring deleted budget information, expand fiscal accountability, and public information requests. All of these ideas sound good and should be implemented, but they are all cosmetic. All that these four plan points do is make information accessible and generally increase sunshine on the city’s operations. What they don’t do is actually impact city operations.
His other three points are substantive, but are the least we should expect as conservatives. Reforming the city bid process is a sorely needed change, but it’s what we should expect from a conservative. No pay to play helps end corruption in the city, but it is also redundant if the bid process is followed. If “contracts will be awarded based on the lowest responsive bid, no exceptions!” is adhered to eliminating pay to play isn’t necessary as the lowest responsive bid is awarded the contract. Placing these measures on a charter amendment is a great idea, and hopefully it will pass. However, this is also something that we should expect from a conservative. The conservatives are the minority in the city, so we need to put forth ideas that are widely supported to charter amendment votes to guard against the day when the city is governed by fiscal irresponsibility.
The biggest reason, though, I write this is King does not appear to be making a serious effort to get out and campaign as needed. This reinforces the belief that he is simply doing the minimum. The Sharpstown Civic Association had a celebration the weekend before Independence Day. Two candidates for position ‘J’ in the city council had booths and were present. Tony had a booth even though he didn’t attend. King was missing from the booths.
This was a great opportunity for him, or at least a surrogate, to be present and interact with voters in a more conservative than average area of the city. It was a great opportunity to get out and meet with voters who are going to be necessary to prevail. The lack of a presence shows that while he is serious in his campaign he is not taking the necessary steps to engage and win. It’s doing the minimum, and is not a promising sign for his chances.
Ideas aren’t impressive
King seems to be placing much of his campaign on the ability to generate ideas to address the City’s ills. However, the ability to generate ideas isn’t an impressive characteristic for someone running for office. Anyone can generate ideas. Want to stop the insanity at the DA’s office? Organize rallies in front of the Harris County Justice Center chanting Ogg must Go! Ogg must Go!, and have crime victims tell their stories. That will get media attention, and will place pressure on the DA’s office. Want to improve traffic flow outside the interstates/beltway? Take a page from Bill White and have the traffic control signals recalibrated to where they are aligned with the speed limit. That’s already proven to work. Anyone can generate ideas. What’s necessary is generating good, workable ideas that are distinct from the crowd. If everyone has a similar idea set it doesn’t matter who is elected.
Conclusion
The city has slipped into such a state of mismanagement that doing the bare minimum is a vast improvement. If someone wants to vote for King because his seven point plan is a vast improvement, great. That’s not an unreasonable position to take. However, when asked how can I call myself a conservative and support Buzbee over King it’s a matter of wanting more than the minimum. It’s not that King is a bad choice; it’s a matter of Tony being a better choice.
DanMan says
Rather light on promoting Buzbee with a double scoop of bashing King.
Buzbee is paying for an hour of radio on KSEV every Friday. I called Him and was asked what my topic was. “Does Buzbee believe we are a sanctuary city?”.
Then I sat on hold for 34 minutes while and his sidekick rambled on about various topics with the longest being the quality of Indian food at Khyber. Show over.
Buzbee is a lightweight.
George says
Buzbee is like the stage magician: illusion that has the appearance of truth….
Tom in Lazybrook says
Dan,
I suspect the question for Republicans in Houston and Harris County is this…what are you prepared to jettison to win an election? Trumps border policy? LGBT rights? Gun control? Pro life issues?
As bad as 2018 was, it came close to being even worse. Had Dokupil beaten Sarah Davis in the primary, the Dems would have won that seat by 7 to 10 percent. Huffman nearly got beat in the State Senate race. So did Betancourt. Had Crenshaw, who was seen – wrongly in my opinion – as a moderate – not caught lightning in a bottle in Texas 02, Litton would have been an even shot of being in Congress. Theres no evidence that Beto voters are coming back to the GOP either. The Harris County GOP almost got completely wiped out due to an own goal of political orthodoxy.
For a Republican to win in Houston, where the partisan dynamic is even more disadvantagous than in Harris County, even harder choices are required. First, you need to have a flawed incumbent that has weaknesses among Democratic or aligned groups. Then you have to have a candidate that can convince some of those DEMOCRATS to vote for a Republican. It helps if the Democrats arent making partisan affiliation an issue ( which shockingly Turner isnt doing effectively – at least not yet).
In the 2019 Houston Mayors race, I see 2 groups out there that are not spoken for by any particular candidate…Anglo Dems and Hispanic voters. Trumps border policy is extremely unpopular with both groups. It would be exceptionally stupid politically for him to go full Trump on that issue. If Buzbee makes the runoff against King, he destroys King. If he makes the runoff against Turner, he gets the GOP vote even if he attended a televised empathy session with Alexandria Ocasio Cortez. If he makes the runoff against Boykins, he probably has the GOP vote. In all three cases, Anglo Dems and Hispanic voters are to a greater or lesser extent, up for grabs and the swing voters. Buzbee doesnt want to speak out for a reason. But if he is forced to speak out, the smart political play isnt to come down on the Trump side of the issue.
Theres a simple mathematical equation that the GOP will learn to accept, sooner or later in local races. That compromise in the face of a political reality or political oblivion are the choices. Not King or Buzbee. Or Dokupil or Davis.
Turner’s heavy handed style of governance, his baffling political strategy of neither engaging swing voters nor defining his opposition in a partisan way has left the door open for another candidate to win. But for the GOP to go full conservative would be to throw away that opening.
Trump will lose the city of Houston by close to 40 percentage points next year. Given lower turnout for city elections than national ones, I estimate that King or Buzbee needs to get at least 30 percent of city voters (probably higher) that will vote for Elizabeth Warren or Kamala Harris or Joe Biden for President to win. Hispanic and Anglo Dems are the most likely defectors for Buzbee. So you see him not taking the right wing bait on the border and showing up at LGBT events.
Mayors control budgets. Mayors appoint people to commisions. Mayors guide policy. Mayors appoint some judges. Having control of the Mayors office helps the party with money, helps promote new candidates, helps local party groups, etc. Now that the GOP doesn’t control Commisioners Court, City Hall, any Countywide offices, theres a real danger that the GOP will see a death spiral in organization, money, infrastructure, candidates, and bench that the Democrats experienced after 2002 statewide. Having an independent who will not completely shut the GOP out in City Hall is probably more important right now than some realize. And it might be a generation before the GOP comes back in Harris. Dont think that 2022 is going to help you on Commissioners Court either. The Democrats will now control redistricting for that body and it will likely be 4-1 Dem, so even if Hidalgo gets tossed, youll be outvoted there too.
Buzbee may be a lightweight but hes running the smarter campaign right now.
Again, what are you prepared to jettison? A policy plank or relevance?
DanMan says
“So you see him not taking the right wing bait on the border and showing up at LGBT events.”
Opposing open borders is now right wing bait. Got it.
Greg Degeyter says
Dan, that’s a fair criticism of my article. Tony had a good line added to his stump speech – fiscally conservative and socially responsible. His plans, as set forth in his stump speeches and his web page seem to employ that reasoning. As far as promoting his plans that’s for his campaign to do, though if asked I would write a piece.
As to why the piece comes off as more of an anti King piece, it’s those flaws that lead me to Tony’s camp at the beginning. It’s those flaws that make me comfortable with Tony after looking at his campaign and positions. Both he and King have good points in their plans. It’s the flaws that make it easy to support Tony. No way to make that argument without illustrating the flaws.
DanMan says
btw Tom, I won’t be out voted. I’m heading a couple of counties out of Harris County now. When the citizens passed the $1 billion bond to shore up 6% of the pension debt I made other plans.
Now that Harris County has approved recommendations to match Houston’s same sex bennies we can assume Harris County’s pension and health care obligations will balloon as well. Y’all enjoy as the region does the Texas version of Detroit.
Pat Bryan says
“Voting for the candidate who has the clearest path to victory is what’s best for the city.”
ARE YOU OUT OF YOUR MIND?
I do not believe that I should vote for a rich jerk with no platform just because the majority of Houstonians might be taken in by his factless charm.
Demetria Smith would be a better choice.
Rolando Garcia says
When faced with Buzbee’s many, many flaws (chameleon-like politics, unsavory character, flamboyant personality) his supporters always fall back on electability (“he can beat Turner!”) but this point is never really explained.
Presumably it means spending gazillions will defeat Turner. Having money is certainly an advantage, but it won’t fundamentally alter the make-up of the city electorate, the ones who ACTUALLY VOTE. I think Buzbee’s schtick has a low ceiling with this group.
In a runoff both King & Buzbee would run up huge margins among Republicans, lose heavily among blacks, and that leaves District C type white moderates. I don’t see Buzbee’s act playing well with that demographic at all.
Shawn says
Greg, interesting on the comments on King, I will not be voting in the election either, I saw this train coming and moved to Pearland instead of staying in Houston. I as a person who has over 30 years in successful management of contracts and bid processes do take one exception to your article. You cannot accept the lowest bid no matter what, if the company obviously cannot do the work in the time required or has legal, quality, or other major issue then you have to look at the other bidders. I have had bidders come in so low I know that they cannot do the work for what they bid it at and thus I am looking at failure. You have to have an intelligent bid process, that is also another reason that I left Houston, I did not see any process other than playing with we need to include everyone, sorry I support small business but not when picking them based on demographics will sabotage the work.
Greg Degeyter says
I agree with you on the accepting the lowest bid point. That was a direct quote from King’s blog.
marv1 says
Briefly replying to Tom, above, King is not a Republican, but a pragmatic independent knowledgeable and responsive to REAL infrastructure, financial, and safety concerns of cities, as evidenced by his well researched print and blog articles over the recent years. I anticipate he will get as many moderate Dem votes as Buzbee.
In addition he doesn’t come across as a prima donna lawyer trying to tackle a new challenge like a big game hunter would, and spending big bucks to do so. I see Bill King quietly going about the business of building support across all sections of Houston, and able to peak at the right time.
Tom in Lazybrook says
King is the candidate of the supporters of Trump. He is also a strong supporter of discrimination against LGBT persons. He can call himself an “independent” as much as he wants, but he is effectively a Dan Patrick/Trump Republican.
Buzbee’s behavior is seen as tacky by many District C voters but, I suspect Buzbee will have a far easier time convincing Anglo Dems to support him than King.
CiVi says
I’m afraid Buzbee is all hat and no cattle. He puts on a great show, though I wonder if the lap-dance video of him and some strippers at the Snoop Dog concert, (via TMZ), may be a show that turns plenty of real conservatives against Mr. Buzbee. With that said, the Houston mayoral race has always been a very bipartisan race, with voters crossing the normal political lines. We are the most diverse city in the country, and very proud of that fact. That’s why I think Bill King is the best candidate — as a conservative-leaning independent who comes from a family of Democrats, I don’t think he’ll govern according to party lines, but instead will think about what’s best for Houston. Period.
Don D Sumners says
Buzbee has gotten the buzz, but he is not the candidate Houston needs for mayor. I have heard him speak twice now; he is personable but he exhibits no real knowledge of the overwhelming problems facing the city. How has a city in a prosperous manage to get itself in such a mess? Houston has only a short time to cure its financial situation. Don’t be confused about the gentrification of the areas near downtown; its just a drop in the bucket compared to the city as a whole. The census is likely to show Houston has a stagnant increasingly poor population. It’s obvious that business is increasingly rejecting Houston as a location for expansion. And, annexing its way out of the problem is impossible; no one wants in. We don’t need a charismatic lawyer as mayor; we need a problem solver. That person is Bill King. Don’t split the vote and allow Turner to take the city down.