The New York Times did a great map looking at change in voters between the 2016 and 2020 election on a precinct level. It showed the results in a +/- (R/D) value and a change from 2016 map. The map can be accessed here.
The map gives an idea where voters became relatively more Republican and Democratic. Westpark toll way between 610 and the beltway rotating cyclonically to 290, and, surprisingly, inside 610 east of I-45 became more Republican. The energy corridor and inside 610 west of I-45 became relatively more Democratic.
Since this is a relative measurement -2020 compared to 2016 – it is a good idea where more Democratic voters can be engaged with and possibly convinced to vote Republican in November. However, this raised a question. David correctly pointed out that crime is the issue this election. What happens when we look for crime specifically as an issue in the election results?
To try and answer the question I compared Trump/Biden to Huffman/Ogg since that was the district attorney race and Mary Nan specifically went door knocking and explained the district attorney’s role in crime issues. This comparison also will account for some of the never Trumpers who otherwise vote Republican.
I’m not a map maker, so the results are in table form below. In the table the precincts are compared as to how much difference there was between the Presidential race and the district attorney race from a Republican standpoint, and the number of votes this accounted for (total vote * percent movement). Since the chart is broken into percentage ranges any precinct that had less than 200 total votes was omitted.
Somewhat surprisingly, crime was a negative factor that increased Democratic vote percentage in some districts.
| R Movement | Votes | ||
| 101 | -9.17317 | -32.2895 | |
| 507 | -4.94086 | -48.7663 | |
| 229 | -4.61022 | -18.6253 | |
| 647 | -4.44024 | -117.311 | |
| 428 | -4.33142 | -137.566 | |
| 162 | -4.26938 | -28.9891 | |
| 607 | -3.9696 | -20.6419 | |
| 977 | -3.91304 | -17.1 | |
| 69 | -3.53855 | -21.0898 | |
| 986 | -3.36036 | -8.53532 | |
| 487 | -3.33442 | -72.657 | |
| 773 | -3.01111 | -83.7691 | |
| 701 | -2.40624 | -7.9887 | |
| 835 | -2.38482 | -3.91111 | |
| 608 | -2.30263 | -6.63158 | |
| 780 | -2.07941 | -6.59172 | |
| 818 | -2.05629 | -6.84746 | |
| 81 | -1.93114 | -20.9142 | |
| 343 | -1.72524 | -20.7546 | |
| 859 | -1.67531 | -9.81729 | |
| 627 | -1.61896 | -27.8138 | |
| 301 | -1.59219 | -19.2336 | |
| 502 | -1.58475 | -29.3337 | |
| 429 | -1.5335 | -24.352 | |
| 653 | -1.4641 | -4.8169 | |
| 425 | -1.42002 | -5.32506 | |
| 488 | -1.40855 | -20.1846 | |
| 705 | -1.34642 | -7.75537 | |
| 423 | -1.34475 | -8.82153 | |
| 342 | -1.27919 | -7.25301 | |
| 763 | -1.21719 | -8.04565 | |
| 849 | -1.2164 | -17.4918 | |
| 600 | -1.16723 | -32.3673 | |
| 191 | -1.13247 | -7.19118 | |
| 150 | -1.09631 | -9.15421 | |
| 427 | -1.0963 | -7.18079 | |
| 678 | -1.05453 | -15.5437 | |
Anything less than -1% to +3% is excluded since that’s an indicator of no impact to the negative, and never Trump impact to the positive (arbitrary cutoff.) Crime had a small impact (3-5%) in the following precincts:
| 184 | 3.004595 | 17.24638 | ||
| 379 | 3.032091 | 36.32446 | ||
| 417 | 3.03217 | 49.57597 | ||
| 88 | 3.038258 | 21.51087 | ||
| 358 | 3.046894 | 41.55963 | ||
| 347 | 3.04832 | 72.85484 | ||
| 960 | 3.062064 | 40.54173 | ||
| 656 | 3.085577 | 45.01857 | ||
| 406 | 3.086287 | 8.795918 | ||
| 283 | 3.093681 | 138.0091 | ||
| 1007 | 3.096965 | 39.70309 | ||
| 821 | 3.106022 | 17.23842 | ||
| 311 | 3.123705 | 51.8535 | ||
| 156 | 3.124916 | 61.62334 | ||
| 839 | 3.132444 | 20.98738 | ||
| 277 | 3.132633 | 30.60583 | ||
| 496 | 3.141989 | 44.80477 | ||
| 248 | 3.166665 | 27.29666 | ||
| 195 | 3.201987 | 35.09378 | ||
| 419 | 3.232852 | 56.73655 | ||
| 122 | 3.245639 | 32.78095 | ||
| 879 | 3.246943 | 63.5102 | ||
| 822 | 3.246983 | 26.43044 | ||
| 460 | 3.248565 | 84.36524 | ||
| 420 | 3.252514 | 120.7333 | ||
| 29 | 3.266144 | 39.3897 | ||
| 292 | 3.267193 | 26.17021 | ||
| 28 | 3.301754 | 81.19012 | ||
| 161 | 3.308299 | 19.68438 | ||
| 840 | 3.315761 | 39.82229 | ||
| 722 | 3.326419 | 86.85281 | ||
| 662 | 3.341427 | 104.4864 | ||
| 558 | 3.35439 | 98.61906 | ||
| 534 | 3.362769 | 90.42485 | ||
| 302 | 3.367924 | 63.82215 | ||
| 432 | 3.376296 | 27.28047 | ||
| 168 | 3.382582 | 7.813765 | ||
| 735 | 3.38278 | 18.53763 | ||
| 394 | 3.420839 | 14.2649 | ||
| 295 | 3.442354 | 14.69885 | ||
| 374 | 3.446274 | 12.26873 | ||
| 141 | 3.460468 | 14.18792 | ||
| 158 | 3.479156 | 53.37025 | ||
| 594 | 3.481208 | 56.5 | ||
| 115 | 3.503429 | 31.00535 | ||
| 136 | 3.508445 | 47.50435 | ||
| 121 | 3.510448 | 26.43367 | ||
| 466 | 3.518728 | 105.4915 | ||
| 584 | 3.529173 | 17.71645 | ||
| 1010 | 3.529646 | 26.75472 | ||
| 490 | 3.549481 | 51.18351 | ||
| 573 | 3.554834 | 29.18519 | ||
| 99 | 3.55647 | 36.1693 | ||
| 589 | 3.562171 | 91.36969 | ||
| 951 | 3.567947 | 7.956522 | ||
| 1002 | 3.570328 | 27.49153 | ||
| 22 | 3.57646 | 52.60972 | ||
| 481 | 3.595655 | 98.91646 | ||
| 137 | 3.595993 | 67.13719 | ||
| 364 | 3.626747 | 67.92897 | ||
| 493 | 3.628406 | 84.50558 | ||
| 6 | 3.630829 | 105.0762 | ||
| 308 | 3.639606 | 31.4098 | ||
| 618 | 3.651657 | 99.39809 | ||
| 399 | 3.667154 | 76.38683 | ||
| 665 | 3.676607 | 73.49538 | ||
| 153 | 3.682774 | 35.46512 | ||
| 63 | 3.683833 | 46.08475 | ||
| 126 | 3.685095 | 120.7606 | ||
| 559 | 3.687629 | 109.5226 | ||
| 453 | 3.700515 | 47.47761 | ||
| 333 | 3.700933 | 100.2583 | ||
| 796 | 3.703926 | 80.22703 | ||
| 744 | 3.708622 | 57.89159 | ||
| 110 | 3.737221 | 91.93564 | ||
| 897 | 3.756129 | 56.00388 | ||
| 17 | 3.767304 | 30.21378 | ||
| 847 | 3.768444 | 62.74459 | ||
| 792 | 3.77131 | 40.16446 | ||
| 794 | 3.780696 | 42.15476 | ||
| 658 | 3.798211 | 74.02714 | ||
| 465 | 3.800559 | 94.67192 | ||
| 957 | 3.80198 | 15.20792 | ||
| 378 | 3.810056 | 46.02548 | ||
| 869 | 3.817106 | 8.130435 | ||
| 712 | 3.828319 | 110.4087 | ||
| 489 | 3.833494 | 50.06543 | ||
| 731 | 3.859589 | 122.0402 | ||
| 335 | 3.862343 | 31.9802 | ||
| 746 | 3.875154 | 18.09697 | ||
| 750 | 3.880935 | 19.21063 | ||
| 645 | 3.904736 | 140.6877 | ||
| 322 | 3.904768 | 21.74956 | ||
| 562 | 3.911139 | 13.29787 | ||
| 416 | 3.923418 | 107.7371 | ||
| 251 | 3.934371 | 54.29432 | ||
| 462 | 3.936125 | 97.97015 | ||
| 517 | 3.940248 | 100.7521 | ||
| 523 | 3.955864 | 95.9297 | ||
| 529 | 3.960415 | 114.3372 | ||
| 784 | 3.963666 | 20.57143 | ||
| 537 | 3.963831 | 106.6271 | ||
| 587 | 3.972967 | 86.65042 | ||
| 671 | 3.975875 | 90.6102 | ||
| 125 | 3.978686 | 71.01954 | ||
| 682 | 3.980489 | 127.0572 | ||
| 684 | 3.989343 | 121.7946 | ||
| 181 | 3.996774 | 47.24187 | ||
| 841 | 3.999431 | 98.02605 | ||
| 36 | 4.022562 | 64.60235 | ||
| 726 | 4.031039 | 68.6889 | ||
| 470 | 4.043877 | 36.67797 | ||
| 192 | 4.049296 | 44.05634 | ||
| 622 | 4.059812 | 132.3093 | ||
| 827 | 4.065833 | 18.17427 | ||
| 672 | 4.076092 | 108.9539 | ||
| 877 | 4.076576 | 154.3799 | ||
| 310 | 4.097739 | 49.09091 | ||
| 725 | 4.117288 | 54.30702 | ||
| 91 | 4.122437 | 59.40431 | ||
| 708 | 4.152824 | 11.62791 | ||
| 349 | 4.157447 | 37.95749 | ||
| 659 | 4.191417 | 163.2138 | ||
| 617 | 4.203265 | 116.3464 | ||
| 898 | 4.2041 | 60.11863 | ||
| 624 | 4.212142 | 37.53019 | ||
| 813 | 4.23136 | 123.2172 | ||
| 90 | 4.254445 | 130.6115 | ||
| 692 | 4.255188 | 96.97573 | ||
| 642 | 4.269062 | 59.51073 | ||
| 639 | 4.278206 | 76.23762 | ||
| 82 | 4.280138 | 108.7583 | ||
| 756 | 4.293559 | 49.5906 | ||
| 668 | 4.297996 | 126.9628 | ||
| 411 | 4.308326 | 49.9335 | ||
| 8 | 4.314374 | 52.72165 | ||
| 776 | 4.327375 | 92 | ||
| 512 | 4.333469 | 131.9975 | ||
| 190 | 4.336535 | 38.98545 | ||
| 677 | 4.369985 | 29.84699 | ||
| 275 | 4.385975 | 38.64044 | ||
| 433 | 4.390805 | 13.17241 | ||
| 609 | 4.395682 | 139.0354 | ||
| 545 | 4.424537 | 147.868 | ||
| 355 | 4.426652 | 56.43981 | ||
| 219 | 4.431712 | 75.20615 | ||
| 450 | 4.433554 | 70.49351 | ||
| 389 | 4.455801 | 25.21983 | ||
| 579 | 4.478261 | 24.72 | ||
| 969 | 4.479716 | 18.23245 | ||
| 48 | 4.498626 | 24.5625 | ||
| 970 | 4.502478 | 17.10941 | ||
| 140 | 4.52772 | 106.3109 | ||
| 603 | 4.531903 | 173.2093 | ||
| 961 | 4.5328 | 61.37411 | ||
| 766 | 4.541427 | 10.08197 | ||
| 477 | 4.554488 | 146.7001 | ||
| 891 | 4.569497 | 45.96914 | ||
| 393 | 4.572982 | 39.92214 | ||
| 774 | 4.578418 | 16.29917 | ||
| 874 | 4.597267 | 112.2193 | ||
| 748 | 4.601683 | 44.72836 | ||
| 404 | 4.602595 | 72.90511 | ||
| 256 | 4.611037 | 92.4974 | ||
| 702 | 4.611445 | 12.17422 | ||
| 363 | 4.6259 | 161.6289 | ||
| 391 | 4.63121 | 68.07879 | ||
| 615 | 4.650694 | 78.31768 | ||
| 567 | 4.672256 | 70.17728 | ||
| 157 | 4.692389 | 58.79563 | ||
| 713 | 4.692693 | 64.61838 | ||
| 572 | 4.716432 | 106.1197 | ||
| 339 | 4.739511 | 53.88824 | ||
| 474 | 4.773649 | 106.3092 | ||
| 696 | 4.773981 | 60.58182 | ||
| 751 | 4.776571 | 236.8701 | ||
| 745 | 4.781221 | 86.25322 | ||
| 321 | 4.784134 | 59.32326 | ||
| 210 | 4.790959 | 97.9272 | ||
| 635 | 4.793996 | 113.378 | ||
| 243 | 4.8 | 18 | ||
| 621 | 4.83656 | 45.46366 | ||
| 480 | 4.84259 | 109.8784 | ||
| 452 | 4.873378 | 173.0049 | ||
| 630 | 4.899428 | 198.7208 | ||
| 518 | 4.918273 | 147.1547 | ||
| 421 | 4.918687 | 80.86321 | ||
| 599 | 4.928128 | 115.1211 | ||
| 246 | 4.933648 | 163.3531 | ||
| 588 | 4.947782 | 145.2174 | ||
| 720 | 4.957033 | 187.7228 | ||
| 704 | 4.957442 | 121.0112 | ||
| 365 | 4.960394 | 50.24879 | ||
| 46 | 4.961549 | 65.44284 | ||
| 98 | 4.999435 | 116.2369 |
Crime was a significant issue (5-10%) in the following precincts:
| 328 | 5.002142 | 38.91667 | |
| 550 | 5.002487 | 89.94472 | |
| 754 | 5.029371 | 32.84179 | |
| 888 | 5.032918 | 80.47636 | |
| 485 | 5.046259 | 160.1178 | |
| 352 | 5.058819 | 159.5551 | |
| 586 | 5.076227 | 143.2511 | |
| 916 | 5.094915 | 150.3 | |
| 117 | 5.103071 | 52.20442 | |
| 500 | 5.111836 | 141.1378 | |
| 464 | 5.115849 | 89.98778 | |
| 476 | 5.12265 | 81.55258 | |
| 552 | 5.126637 | 163.7448 | |
| 114 | 5.1455 | 206.952 | |
| 679 | 5.158755 | 137.6356 | |
| 296 | 5.191204 | 56.32456 | |
| 345 | 5.200711 | 58.45599 | |
| 640 | 5.209041 | 139.3939 | |
| 728 | 5.23217 | 30.97445 | |
| 958 | 5.233058 | 38.04433 | |
| 522 | 5.236573 | 113.9478 | |
| 367 | 5.251223 | 46.31579 | |
| 282 | 5.255029 | 86.55033 | |
| 541 | 5.267525 | 177.2522 | |
| 789 | 5.273735 | 109.7992 | |
| 596 | 5.288783 | 117.6225 | |
| 83 | 5.293381 | 146.9972 | |
| 264 | 5.301093 | 103.0533 | |
| 641 | 5.345561 | 144.0629 | |
| 785 | 5.365596 | 195.4687 | |
| 805 | 5.397578 | 118.5848 | |
| 519 | 5.42626 | 110.3701 | |
| 482 | 5.434129 | 183.0214 | |
| 762 | 5.451534 | 130.8368 | |
| 637 | 5.459862 | 92.70845 | |
| 49 | 5.513122 | 200.1815 | |
| 995 | 5.525499 | 73.93118 | |
| 76 | 5.525522 | 83.32487 | |
| 24 | 5.547786 | 32.45455 | |
| 193 | 5.54829 | 34.51037 | |
| 415 | 5.57013 | 97.86719 | |
| 510 | 5.571211 | 149.4199 | |
| 926 | 5.577362 | 52.37143 | |
| 598 | 5.612287 | 223.369 | |
| 434 | 5.624659 | 70.36448 | |
| 752 | 5.631158 | 55.69216 | |
| 747 | 5.637682 | 185.1979 | |
| 225 | 5.643465 | 132.3392 | |
| 655 | 5.647779 | 178.3004 | |
| 290 | 5.663063 | 70.05209 | |
| 851 | 5.686857 | 170.5488 | |
| 341 | 5.737673 | 40.45059 | |
| 299 | 5.741349 | 50.46645 | |
| 804 | 5.75644 | 262.321 | |
| 340 | 5.781755 | 168.9429 | |
| 880 | 5.791808 | 130.0261 | |
| 50 | 5.824699 | 179.692 | |
| 542 | 5.845974 | 94.99708 | |
| 390 | 5.856962 | 61.61525 | |
| 357 | 5.86016 | 157.1695 | |
| 657 | 5.864525 | 65.85862 | |
| 674 | 5.885592 | 202.9941 | |
| 351 | 5.887247 | 224.9517 | |
| 113 | 5.892159 | 113.5419 | |
| 709 | 5.907435 | 198.1944 | |
| 138 | 5.909592 | 48.63594 | |
| 34 | 5.929938 | 137.8118 | |
| 623 | 5.940325 | 175.002 | |
| 486 | 5.96203 | 204.7361 | |
| 738 | 5.979035 | 44.54381 | |
| 498 | 5.996729 | 98.04651 | |
| 397 | 6.012656 | 23.9905 | |
| 644 | 6.014372 | 199.3764 | |
| 369 | 6.01686 | 18.11075 | |
| 601 | 6.017075 | 190.5608 | |
| 759 | 6.019569 | 123.5817 | |
| 790 | 6.043824 | 110.4207 | |
| 963 | 6.0454 | 32.64516 | |
| 982 | 6.121776 | 295.3145 | |
| 771 | 6.123679 | 54.74569 | |
| 688 | 6.134512 | 211.8247 | |
| 469 | 6.149881 | 152.3325 | |
| 329 | 6.163251 | 59.10558 | |
| 648 | 6.182628 | 165.509 | |
| 478 | 6.194704 | 196.7438 | |
| 903 | 6.201023 | 126.2528 | |
| 111 | 6.212593 | 289.1341 | |
| 742 | 6.240644 | 168.8718 | |
| 539 | 6.244946 | 76.62549 | |
| 484 | 6.24922 | 182.4772 | |
| 606 | 6.251836 | 28.38333 | |
| 650 | 6.260204 | 195.3184 | |
| 10 | 6.263052 | 61.19002 | |
| 913 | 6.271306 | 11.35106 | |
| 312 | 6.272327 | 156.5573 | |
| 575 | 6.302281 | 191.5894 | |
| 224 | 6.320144 | 128.8045 | |
| 911 | 6.325695 | 21.57062 | |
| 509 | 6.335538 | 235.3019 | |
| 505 | 6.341249 | 176.0965 | |
| 548 | 6.389927 | 97.70199 | |
| 862 | 6.424402 | 189.7126 | |
| 661 | 6.456783 | 206.7462 | |
| 315 | 6.458664 | 80.08743 | |
| 244 | 6.46882 | 142.2493 | |
| 521 | 6.513446 | 136.5218 | |
| 786 | 6.528037 | 40.66967 | |
| 669 | 6.536316 | 176.6766 | |
| 412 | 6.545209 | 14.92308 | |
| 933 | 6.545496 | 35.41113 | |
| 388 | 6.550825 | 298.7176 | |
| 314 | 6.559104 | 296.2091 | |
| 119 | 6.580102 | 286.4977 | |
| 307 | 6.586636 | 153.5345 | |
| 483 | 6.593751 | 223.2644 | |
| 491 | 6.594372 | 118.4349 | |
| 730 | 6.595103 | 120.6904 | |
| 885 | 6.622224 | 158.9996 | |
| 361 | 6.643824 | 72.21837 | |
| 267 | 6.649194 | 51.66423 | |
| 806 | 6.660048 | 146.521 | |
| 479 | 6.661619 | 188.9235 | |
| 610 | 6.682525 | 88.27616 | |
| 245 | 6.702041 | 226.73 | |
| 442 | 6.730911 | 232.6203 | |
| 323 | 6.749386 | 80.2502 | |
| 631 | 6.842094 | 153.605 | |
| 287 | 6.85779 | 94.84324 | |
| 980 | 6.862564 | 72.88043 | |
| 492 | 6.863824 | 115.5182 | |
| 602 | 6.881303 | 81.88751 | |
| 570 | 6.885616 | 76.15492 | |
| 514 | 6.905699 | 215.0435 | |
| 451 | 6.913358 | 149.3285 | |
| 711 | 6.91823 | 231.7607 | |
| 876 | 6.95986 | 275.1233 | |
| 764 | 6.963081 | 257.634 | |
| 43 | 6.969367 | 86.83831 | |
| 734 | 6.99255 | 253.2702 | |
| 260 | 7.044687 | 76.5053 | |
| 172 | 7.07831 | 27.67619 | |
| 787 | 7.151565 | 19.80984 | |
| 41 | 7.160133 | 79.76388 | |
| 651 | 7.177435 | 191.9964 | |
| 515 | 7.178798 | 177.8906 | |
| 817 | 7.208825 | 298.6616 | |
| 370 | 7.212927 | 272.6486 | |
| 331 | 7.262834 | 308.8883 | |
| 123 | 7.276747 | 83.31876 | |
| 262 | 7.301104 | 210.7829 | |
| 633 | 7.313283 | 232.8549 | |
| 968 | 7.32432 | 130.1532 | |
| 729 | 7.326173 | 24.76246 | |
| 707 | 7.345473 | 43.92593 | |
| 853 | 7.360552 | 170.4704 | |
| 198 | 7.389558 | 24.38554 | |
| 11 | 7.415218 | 73.70727 | |
| 803 | 7.424007 | 264.8886 | |
| 143 | 7.46178 | 315.1856 | |
| 436 | 7.488492 | 230.9451 | |
| 996 | 7.501394 | 39.8324 | |
| 875 | 7.515526 | 240.6471 | |
| 27 | 7.541926 | 158.7575 | |
| 146 | 7.554368 | 121.3232 | |
| 690 | 7.567523 | 235.4256 | |
| 691 | 7.583155 | 256.9931 | |
| 362 | 7.617882 | 290.546 | |
| 298 | 7.619166 | 118.6304 | |
| 112 | 7.63539 | 175.9194 | |
| 444 | 7.638117 | 201.5699 | |
| 407 | 7.64989 | 223.0708 | |
| 495 | 7.662597 | 157.3898 | |
| 270 | 7.670955 | 204.9679 | |
| 306 | 7.695007 | 114.7326 | |
| 84 | 7.713261 | 70.19068 | |
| 912 | 7.726572 | 82.13346 | |
| 703 | 7.769086 | 118.4786 | |
| 223 | 7.772748 | 198.7492 | |
| 30 | 7.793688 | 187.3603 | |
| 263 | 7.805017 | 250.3069 | |
| 964 | 7.81268 | 329.3045 | |
| 44 | 7.820123 | 89.85321 | |
| 800 | 7.824439 | 217.9889 | |
| 293 | 7.829502 | 105.6983 | |
| 569 | 7.841906 | 261.1355 | |
| 16 | 7.843705 | 135.147 | |
| 834 | 7.86703 | 18.17284 | |
| 95 | 7.915493 | 214.1141 | |
| 291 | 7.919192 | 65.33333 | |
| 568 | 7.945173 | 216.9032 | |
| 405 | 7.979572 | 250.0798 | |
| 625 | 8.004422 | 117.0247 | |
| 200 | 8.088295 | 262.9505 | |
| 620 | 8.11685 | 208.8466 | |
| 21 | 8.133298 | 73.11835 | |
| 687 | 8.141412 | 180.088 | |
| 612 | 8.203336 | 207.5444 | |
| 543 | 8.219804 | 74.88241 | |
| 564 | 8.252713 | 209.0412 | |
| 233 | 8.287789 | 363.5853 | |
| 616 | 8.292675 | 229.3754 | |
| 779 | 8.405165 | 32.44394 | |
| 619 | 8.405779 | 319.0834 | |
| 179 | 8.409405 | 116.0498 | |
| 380 | 8.412318 | 357.6076 | |
| 159 | 8.417299 | 63.21392 | |
| 511 | 8.4873 | 596.9967 | |
| 994 | 8.496338 | 17.92727 | |
| 9 | 8.510046 | 125.0126 | |
| 718 | 8.536066 | 335.8942 | |
| 155 | 8.558656 | 279.6113 | |
| 20 | 8.565019 | 140.3807 | |
| 39 | 8.569055 | 224.4235 | |
| 213 | 8.572103 | 249.4482 | |
| 513 | 8.575985 | 201.6214 | |
| 74 | 8.613933 | 244.3773 | |
| 60 | 8.650709 | 194.0354 | |
| 194 | 8.677462 | 162.9627 | |
| 563 | 8.689322 | 215.0607 | |
| 878 | 8.694337 | 106.3317 | |
| 473 | 8.695817 | 118.3501 | |
| 165 | 8.709889 | 152.8586 | |
| 896 | 8.743591 | 119.5249 | |
| 461 | 8.82024 | 293.6258 | |
| 626 | 8.830764 | 297.8617 | |
| 255 | 8.888243 | 172.9652 | |
| 985 | 8.901807 | 21.00826 | |
| 269 | 8.925034 | 167.9691 | |
| 667 | 8.950379 | 145.8912 | |
| 173 | 8.966092 | 348.1533 | |
| 32 | 8.994655 | 212.1839 | |
| 149 | 9.028652 | 667.9397 | |
| 129 | 9.085752 | 368.6998 | |
| 274 | 9.086698 | 165.5596 | |
| 699 | 9.090177 | 161.1688 | |
| 206 | 9.128185 | 206.0231 | |
| 758 | 9.172445 | 319.3845 | |
| 828 | 9.247339 | 145.2757 | |
| 178 | 9.252377 | 152.3866 | |
| 38 | 9.276716 | 231.6396 | |
| 124 | 9.277694 | 438.6494 | |
| 1004 | 9.340979 | 52.96335 | |
| 3 | 9.375682 | 147.8545 | |
| 899 | 9.446988 | 99.19337 | |
| 504 | 9.457376 | 174.1103 | |
| 395 | 9.467338 | 133.8682 | |
| 118 | 9.546351 | 290.4 | |
| 120 | 9.569134 | 323.6281 | |
| 40 | 9.703326 | 41.91837 | |
| 670 | 9.789062 | 251.9704 | |
| 92 | 9.831021 | 176.8601 | |
| 303 | 9.881377 | 285.9671 | |
| 300 | 9.886823 | 463.1977 | |
| 590 | 9.897884 | 165.5916 | |
| 499 | 9.947509 | 197.9554 |
Some precincts had over 10% change, which likely means something other than crime was driving the results. However, for completeness those precincts are:
| 577 | 10.08908 | 155.3719 | |
| 435 | 10.09047 | 271.5345 | |
| 447 | 10.09337 | 471.2594 | |
| 503 | 10.1231 | 209.0421 | |
| 768 | 10.23599 | 211.0661 | |
| 923 | 10.285 | 342.9018 | |
| 217 | 10.33871 | 238.1005 | |
| 139 | 10.37278 | 320.9339 | |
| 350 | 10.38266 | 242.8505 | |
| 772 | 10.38331 | 370.7881 | |
| 273 | 10.39005 | 213.2038 | |
| 892 | 10.43058 | 100.8637 | |
| 721 | 10.45769 | 227.873 | |
| 18 | 10.46159 | 118.8437 | |
| 33 | 10.46683 | 340.1721 | |
| 204 | 10.49655 | 310.2781 | |
| 37 | 10.5043 | 222.5862 | |
| 135 | 10.56227 | 288.35 | |
| 761 | 10.58251 | 151.224 | |
| 234 | 10.59915 | 375.3159 | |
| 459 | 10.63479 | 319.5755 | |
| 886 | 10.67067 | 72.98738 | |
| 207 | 10.69985 | 90.52074 | |
| 56 | 10.70043 | 124.66 | |
| 441 | 10.71432 | 136.9291 | |
| 174 | 10.72181 | 294.0993 | |
| 760 | 10.75489 | 174.8746 | |
| 176 | 10.81298 | 115.807 | |
| 316 | 10.89128 | 129.6062 | |
| 472 | 10.93532 | 95.46535 | |
| 540 | 11.02042 | 214.788 | |
| 19 | 11.03743 | 136.9745 | |
| 546 | 11.06944 | 219.1749 | |
| 70 | 11.07698 | 387.5836 | |
| 445 | 11.09937 | 171.7072 | |
| 1 | 11.1237 | 286.6578 | |
| 973 | 11.15604 | 95.71886 | |
| 385 | 11.17367 | 196.2096 | |
| 808 | 11.35524 | 53.2561 | |
| 947 | 11.37641 | 74.17417 | |
| 360 | 11.37885 | 321.5663 | |
| 356 | 11.51014 | 281.7681 | |
| 222 | 11.55218 | 269.8589 | |
| 52 | 11.59198 | 259.3126 | |
| 86 | 11.59499 | 402.1143 | |
| 130 | 11.61262 | 209.7239 | |
| 551 | 11.80599 | 495.6153 | |
| 890 | 11.81544 | 154.546 | |
| 902 | 11.84524 | 297.3154 | |
| 304 | 11.89953 | 211.6926 | |
| 895 | 11.90706 | 83.23034 | |
| 400 | 11.96217 | 269.3882 | |
| 439 | 11.99305 | 372.3842 | |
| 663 | 12.15611 | 238.9891 | |
| 743 | 12.1908 | 12.55652 | |
| 148 | 12.19105 | 249.9165 | |
| 324 | 12.21731 | 263.1609 | |
| 578 | 12.2551 | 186.8903 | |
| 177 | 12.41485 | 187.0917 | |
| 14 | 12.49366 | 186.2805 | |
| 71 | 12.64585 | 651.0084 | |
| 437 | 12.66799 | 226.7569 | |
| 73 | 12.70391 | 187.7638 | |
| 215 | 12.77931 | 248.6854 | |
| 955 | 12.78171 | 803.5859 | |
| 5 | 12.79178 | 155.0363 | |
| 227 | 12.82014 | 180.6357 | |
| 53 | 12.83162 | 341.1927 | |
| 403 | 12.96419 | 184.2212 | |
| 214 | 13.01151 | 206.4926 | |
| 59 | 13.02956 | 311.7974 | |
| 710 | 13.03821 | 248.6386 | |
| 265 | 13.05601 | 375.2297 | |
| 424 | 13.09708 | 122.9816 | |
| 116 | 13.43036 | 355.7702 | |
| 281 | 13.43349 | 243.6835 | |
| 2 | 13.55153 | 203.0019 | |
| 438 | 13.77728 | 405.6031 | |
| 258 | 13.98466 | 382.4803 | |
| 887 | 14.02439 | 50.4878 | |
| 54 | 14.15583 | 211.0635 | |
| 232 | 14.22188 | 219.728 | |
| 166 | 14.3576 | 148.6011 | |
| 268 | 14.40349 | 287.7817 | |
| 58 | 14.44104 | 430.0542 | |
| 57 | 14.76461 | 405.2885 | |
| 55 | 14.79313 | 373.0828 | |
| 133 | 14.84946 | 342.1315 | |
| 440 | 14.88859 | 363.5793 | |
| 128 | 14.95767 | 294.666 | |
| 448 | 15.1549 | 373.7199 | |
| 443 | 15.27387 | 83.39535 | |
| 4 | 15.29986 | 246.9397 | |
| 724 | 15.32035 | 147.0754 | |
| 183 | 15.74388 | 335.1871 | |
| 175 | 15.86907 | 337.2177 | |
| 75 | 15.98327 | 268.6787 | |
| 182 | 16.1578 | 525.6133 | |
| 501 | 16.28267 | 296.6702 | |
| 309 | 16.64535 | 523.8292 | |
| 189 | 17.02634 | 217.0859 | |
| 826 | 17.27053 | 50.94805 | |
| 927 | 17.66196 | 269.345 | |
| 87 | 17.77263 | 417.1236 | |
| 89 | 18.02543 | 193.4128 | |
| 15 | 19.32438 | 485.815 |
From a total votes standpoint, the precincts where crime was a negative factor cost 942 votes, and where it was a positive factor gained 81,168 votes. Hopefully this helps to focus on where available votes can be found and we’re able to flip seats in a few months.
If anyone wants a copy of the underlying data I’m glad to send it.