But first, my standard disclaimer and some background. Unless otherwise noted, all numbers come from a recent poll I conducted with Hill Research Consultants on behalf of the consumer-advocacy group Texas Watch (questionnaire, report and memo), and readers are reminded that the opinions expressed here are mine alone, and do not necessarily reflect those of Texas Watch, HRC, or any other past, current or future employers or clients.
Data was gathered in the field between August 25-29, 2010, via a telephone survey of 600 active Texas voters. “Active” for these purposes means they are not merely registered but have in fact participated in at least one general election in the past three cycles (i.e., 2008, 2006 or 2004); many of course, have voted in more than one of these elections. Results for the entire sample have a margin of error of 4.0{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} at a 95{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} degree level of confidence.
Finally, to avoid quirks of small cell-sizes and paint a broader picture, I’ve combined two categories—respondents who said they actually belonged to a household “active” in the movement and those not-active-but-who are “friendly towards and share” its goals—into a single voter segment, which is referred to in the charts that follow simply as “Tea Partiers” (n=208).
We established previously that the Tea Party is overwhelming not just a conservative—but a conservative Republican phenomenon, but here are the numbers once again (in the new segmentation), just to reiterate the point (see Exhibit 1).
Half (50{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}) of all Tea Partiers are “strong” Republicans (65{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} overall), with only 1 in 4 describing themselves as an Independent. Regardless of partisanship, 73{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} proudly wear the label “conservative,” with a rock-solid 47{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} identifying as “very” conservative.
Geographically, as a media-market the DFW Metroplex edges out the greater-Houston area—but in terms of single-county enthusiasm, Harris reigns supreme (see Exhibit 2).
Somehow, it seems fitting and proper that the Austin-area is home to an outsized amount of opposition to a movement dedicated to cutting spending and reducing the size and scope of government.
As we all know by now, so-called “conventional wisdom” has concluded that the Tea Parties are basically full of a bunch of angry old white folks.
Well I’m here to tell ya’… um, actually, that one is kinda true—not that there’s anything wrong with that.
Certainly there are plenty of younger members of the movement—one in ten under age 35, with another 18{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} under age 44.
But there is a clear contrast evident when compared to the “don’t care” or “hostile/oppose” camps, both of which are statistically split between members who are younger versus older than age 50.
Tea Partiers meanwhile have a 16 point skew towards the upper brackets, with a relatively thin roster of members under age 35 by comparison (see Exhibit 3).
As for being a Sea of Pale Faces, in many respects this entire issue is absurd, in that most votes in Texas are Anglo, including the vast majority of those indifferent or hostile to the Tea Parties.
That said, only 14{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the movement in Texas comes from ethnic minorities (and half that from self-identified “mixed-race” individuals). Six-percent of Lone Star State tea-partiers are Hispanic, only one-percent African-American. (“Hi Natalie!”) (see Exhibit 4).
The “good” news for those of you who care about discrediting the water-cooler myths of NPR executives—which I know is something most of you don’t give a tinker’s damn about, but I’m going to tell you anyway—comes from the data on educational achievement.
61{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of Texas Tea Party backers are college graduates—a higher rate than any other segmentation bloc (see Exhibit 5).
Admittedly, that’s within the margin of error, and therefore statistically equal to overall college education rates among the “hostile/oppose” bloc, but still a useful refutation of the “ignorant mob” myth.
The key difference-maker however is revealed when looking at the nature of that college education, in that…
- While a solid plurality (42{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}) of Tea Party backers hold a bachelors, and one in five (19{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}) have an advanced or professional degree (19{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986});
- … Opponents of the Tea Party are actually more likely to have completed graduate school (32{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}) than to have stopped with a more conventional B.A. (27{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}).
From this we learn that Tea Partiers in Texas are plenty-smart, and the type of folks who get a good education and then quickly head out into the world to work hard and earn a living… while the people most hostile to the movement are disproportionately-likely to be over-educated, pseudo-intellectual, self-hating freaks.
Those final observations aren’t strictly justifiable applying only a sober, social-science reading of the data, but it’s my blog post, and I’m stickin’ to ‘em.
David Benzion is a strategic research and communications professional with extensive experience providing polling, focus-group and opposition-research services to Republican candidates in senatorial, congressional, gubernatorial and state-house campaigns, as well as for ballot initiative committees, corporate, trade association and public affairs clients.
As founding editor and publisher of LoneStarTimes.com, for five years Benzion led a group blog whose conservative Texas perspective on politics, pop-culture and current events was cited by the Houston Chronicle, Austin American-Statesman, Dallas Morning News, Governing Magazine, The Hotline and Associated Press. He is a former executive producer and host with Houston talk-radio station AM 700 KSEV, where he remains a substitute host.
Opinions expressed by Benzion are his alone, and do not necessarily reflect those of his former, current or future employers or clients.