But today I’m going to suggest a counter-intuitive exercise—thinking less about the present and future, and instead looking back to reflect on the recent past. To truly understand where we are currently and might be headed shortly, it’s useful to fully appreciate just exactly where it is you’ve come from.
As it so happens, in Texas we have an extraordinarily-informative dataset that allows us to do just that—Hill Research Consultant’s 2008 report “Beyond Bush: Texas Republicans in an Obama Era,” whose full 179-pages of PDF-glory can be downloaded for your personal enjoyment right here.
Beyond Bush Texas Republicans in An Obama Era
I played an integral role in designing the questionnaire, analyzing the results and writing the report, but remind readers that the opinions expressed here are mine alone, and do not necessarily reflect those of past, current or future employers or clients.
Funded pro-bono by HRC, fielded by live telephone-interviewers between November 15-17, 2008, and with a margin-of-error of 3.9{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}, this study of 636 “active” voters (i.e., with a demonstrable track-record of participating in a recent election cycle) offers a fascinating lens through which to evaluate political developments in the Lone Star State over the past two years.
To begin, in these heady days of pending Democratic bloodbath, it is difficult to remember just how diminished and damaged stood the Republican “brand” in the aftermath of Obama’s victory—even here in deep Red State Texas.
For instance…
- Asked to volunteer top-of-mind impressions of a “generic” elected official from each party, respondents were 18 points more likely to express a negative rather than a positive opinion about Republicans, while an unnamed Democrat elicited 18 positive over negative sentiments.
- Democrats enjoyed a 30 margin of favorability (59/29); Republicans just 2 points (47/45). An electorate that had backed George W. Bush four times—twice for Governor, twice for President—now looked down sheepishly at their cowboy boots while the former hometown hero returned to a -19 point deficit in favorability (38/57).
- Asked to attribute various qualities to either party generally, the GOP trailed Dems on “using common-sense to run government more efficiently and effectively” (-11); “being trustworthy, honest and ethical” (-12); “championing the needs of homeowners, small businesses and average taxpayers” (-13); and “caring about the concerns and problems of people like me” (-31).
- Additionally, Democrats bested Republicans on being “open and welcoming” ( 33), “thoughtful” ( 26), “reformers” ( 19), “innovative” ( 13) and “smart” ( 12).
- Worse, the Elephants “won” the battle with the Donkeys over who was more was more “angry” ( 14), “corrupt” ( 23), “racist” ( 24) and “arrogant” ( 28).
Perhaps most ominously of all, just 32{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} of the electorate felt Republican elected officials in Texas had performed their jobs well enough to deserve reelection to their office, while an actual majority—54{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}—believed it was time to give Democrats the chance to do better (with 15{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} unsure).
I can’t imagine even the dope-smoking pinko-commie moonbat bloggers over at Burnt Orange Report are ready to claim we will wake up November 3rd to statewide results that reflect the attitudinal landscape I just described. So what happened?
The report’s concluding section offered strategic recommendations, and noted that Republicans…
- … Had to come to grips with the fact that, even Deep in the Heart of Texas, Republican dominance was not ordained and inevitable and a shift in approach was necessary.
- … Must appeal to the “Critical Middle”—i.e., voters who are in fact conservative and open to the GOP, but who are not as ideologically principled or passionate as our base, and who have wearied of backing Republicans simply because the alternative is supposedly worse.
- … Needed to focus on the economy generally and practical day-to-day pocketbook concerns particularly—not to the exclusion of “social” issues, per se, but first, foremost and overwhelmingly. Folks who wouldn’t otherwise think of themselves as “Republicans” had to come to believe that they personally had more money in their wallets because the GOP held power in state government.
- … Could not long afford to be “just” or “overwhelmingly” a party of angry old white people, but rather had to figure out ways to maintain their traditional bases of support while simultaneously reaching out to Hispanics (who think we are hostile to them, regardless of our estimation of the accuracy of that characterization) and younger voters (whose cultural sensibilities are offended by the faintest hint of intolerance, “Church Lady” smugness or suburban dorkitude).
- … Had to defeat and dispel a growing perception that the GOP had become less interested in actually governing Texas than in simply ruling it—and doing this would require a humility, demonstrable concern for the common good, independence from special-interest influence and focus on issues relevant to citizens’ actual lives that is not typically embraced by an incumbent regime that still retains the reins of power.
Well, I’d like to say Republicans across Texas got smart and took our advice.
But to be honest, there is little evidence we’ve done so—and for this, I blame congressional Democrats and especially Barack Obama.
(Hey, I’m a conservative, what’d you expect?)
The simple truth is that the tsunami of Republican resurgence about to wash Democratic candidates and office-holders out to sea—in Texas and across the rest of the nation—has much less to do with anything we’ve done right, and everything to do with what they’ve done wrong.
Put simply, they misunderstood their mandate. In 2008, the electorate was exhausted from 7 years of war, incompetence (a degree of which is inevitable in every administration), a feeling that the political class was ensconced and indifferent to the everyday concerns of average citizens, and a bitter political culture that promised peace and quiet and rest… if only we’d scalp George W. Bush.
Instead, we got… well, you know what we got instead; something much different.
The good news is that Obama and the clueless Left have ended up redeeming the GOP from political captivity at a pace and to an extent practically inconceivable a mere 23 months ago.
The bad news is that this monumental Democratic bungling in many ways preempted the natural cycle of recrimination, reflection and rebuilding Republicans would have otherwise undergone.
Will the Tea Party protest movement, still in many ways a not-fully-defined or settled entity, produce these necessary long-term effects?
Flush with victory, will Republicans be wise enough to avoid misunderstanding our own mandate, and instead act with the intelligence, foresight and deftness necessary to renew our party for years and even decades to come?
The questions remain… but answers fast approach.
As founding editor and publisher of LoneStarTimes.com, for five years Benzion led a group blog whose conservative Texas perspective on politics, pop-culture and current events was cited by the Houston Chronicle, Austin American-Statesman, Dallas Morning News, Governing Magazine, The Hotline and Associated Press. He is a former executive producer and host with Houston talk-radio station AM 700 KSEV, where he remains a substitute host.
Opinions expressed by Benzion are his alone, and do not necessarily reflect those of his former, current or future employers or clients.