It is important to remember that this is a single poll amongst many and that the eight point jump from the last Rasmussen poll could be an anomaly. I doubt that is the case, though, after looking through the crosstabs. Last year I had Medina getting 10-12{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}, with a possibility of moving to 18-20{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}, so this is a bit higher than my guess but who knew at the time that Sen. Hutchison’s campaign would be so inept and focus on conservatives rather than trying to expand the critical middle?
The question is, can she move higher? Maybe. Her unfavorables in this poll are very low, in the single digits, with 51{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} still unsure. I think that Sen. Hutchison has pretty much bottomed out – it is hard to see her dipping below 25{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}. The pros continue to say that Medina is pulling from Sen. Hutchison, I continue to maintain that isn’t the case. I think that as she pulls conservatives from Perry, he replaces those with voters from Sen. Hutchison. Looking at the crosstabs, Medina is much more popular with men than women, about double on these crosstabs.
Interestingly, Medina easily outpolls the both Gov. Perry and Sen. Hutchison amongst self-described liberals. Perhaps that is why the pros think that she is pulling votes away from Sen. Hutchison but that is more reflective of those who have libertarian type leanings, often mischaracterized by the press as far right conservatives.
It will be interesting to see what the campaigns do from this point forward. Insiders on both the Perry and Hutchison campaigns continue to say that their internal polls show the race much closer between the top two and Mrs. Medina well behind. It doesn’t make a lot of sense to me but that is what they say privately.
One thing that could hurt Mrs. Medina is her statement last week that she will not, under no uncertain terms, vote for Gov. Perry or Sen. Hutchison if they are the nominee. Previously, she had left a back door to her statements, saying that no one can predict what could happen before November. But in this article in the San Antonio Express News last week, she closed that door:
Although she defines herself as a “career anti-abortion, rock-solid Republican,” Medina, 47, said she would not vote for either Perry or Hutchison in November if she were to lose the March 2 primary.
“I am about principles, not personality,” she said. “Their principles and mine don’t line up at all.”
As more traditional Republican primary voters hear about that, her unfavorables will rise. This is exactly the type of attitude that left the country in the hands of Barack Obama. Mrs. Medina would be wise to heed Ronald Reagan’s advice that someone 80{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} with you isn’t your enemy.