As you know, we provided voters with a matrix of the recommendations of various slates for the 2014 Harris County Republican Party Primary. Two of the “Big 3”, Terry Lowry and Dr. Steve Hotze, were substantially less influential than in years past. I’m sure there are a variety of reasons for that but it is a fact. The relative newcomer HRBC slate led the pack with a 93{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} chance of their recommendation either winning outright or making it to a runoff.
Here are the ones that I know sent out mailers in large quantities:
[table id=31 /]
One of the obvious differences is that HRBC and the C-Club had recommendations in fewer races, making it easier to get higher percentages.
I think that we can say that we are starting to see the effects of having more slates in the marketplace, thus diluting the influence of the Big 3. Here is a comparison of the Big 3 for this year vs 2010:
[table id=32 /]
The 2010 numbers come from this post I wrote in 2010: Do Alleged Pay to Play Endorsements Work?
Also in 2010, if all three men agreed on a candidate, there was a 100{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} chance that the candidate would either win or be in a runoff. This year the three men agreed on candidates in 18 races, with 15 of those candidates winning or making a runoff. Still very good but 83.3{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} is a long way from 100{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986}.
Although they didn’t send mass quantities of mailers, the Conservative Coalition of Harris County slate’s recommendations were 88{997ab4c1e65fa660c64e6dfea23d436a73c89d6254ad3ae72f887cf583448986} successful. This group is all volunteer, made up of activists in the party. I’d say they did pretty well.
Please note that this is not an in-depth statistical analysis, so don’t bother yelling about correlation, causation, or anything else. I’m putting this out there because I think it is interesting. And because I think that diluting the influence of the “Big 3” is critical to the future success of the Harris County Republican Party.
So the final result is that the Houston Chronicle, which conservatives activists in the county just love to hate on, got a better win rate than either Polland or Hotze. Sounds like the day of the slates is almost at an end.
That’s amusing, to say the least! And I hope you’re correct about the future of the slates.
I pretty much read the Hotze slate and picked an opposing candidate in that race.
Let’s stop the in fighting now and get these precinct chairs filled and get out the vote. if we don’t how does President Hillary sound to you?
For context, Mr. Shortreed was the attorney for Terry Lowry, who threatened Jared Woodfill and the Harris County Republican Party with a lawsuit if the party posted its resolution condemning pay-to-play slates. And Mr. Lowry blocked more than one aspiring precinct chair during his service on the Vacancy Committee of HCRP.
So your point is let’s keep fighting so the Dems can win. Does mainstream have a real name?
It would have made my day if he would have supported a delay in the vote to let the debt increase as Cruz was trying to do giving more time to get the general public engaged on this issue at this time. Voting no on the premature low consensus vote was symbolic at best.